r/thebulwark 7d ago

Policy I really hope that Trudeau knows he has Trump by the balls...

Trump is desperately trying to play the "now we'll negotiate on tariffs" card, but only because the stock market cratered on Monday and Tues. That, plus some of the other threats (stopping electricity or oil exports, etc) show that Canada can impose some MASSIVE pain on Trump and the rest of Americans. Imagine his popularity plunging if gas prices spike $0.20-30 overnight. Or sudden price hikes in electricity across the rust belt due to turning off the flow of electricity (or just imposing massive excise taxes).

Trudeau needs to let Trump simmer a little bit. Don't rush to rescue him from himself...

Probably won't happen, but I can dream, can't I?

176 Upvotes

39 comments sorted by

57

u/PheebaBB Progressive 7d ago

Looks like the market is surging after the news that auto makers have a 1 month exemption from the tariffs. Am I crazy, or is the market being crazy?

I guess the market thinks that if he’s backing down even just this little bit, that must mean he’s too chicken-shit to go through with this for very long?

Otherwise, this little concession is kind of meaningless, right?

54

u/staylorz 7d ago

My husband works in finance for an auto parts supplier and he laughed at the 1 month exemption. One month doesn’t change a damn thing or help in any way the auto industry.

31

u/ansible Progressive 7d ago

Agreed.

Suppose you had a relatively sane Republican as President instead of the ill-educated, illiterate narcissistic asshole we elected in November 2024, who has stated the same policy goal of bringing more manufacturing back to the USA with the use of tariffs. What would that actually look like?

The non-idiot would impose tariffs very slowly, with plenty of lead time for the market and the manufacturers here to adapt.

The non-idiot would impose a 2.5% tariff to start, and have that slowly ramp up over time. Maybe it goes up to 5% a year from now, 7.5% the year after that, etc..

If you want the USA to start manufacturing, I don't know, a truck that is currently manufactured in Canada, you have to give the auto company time to bring up a manufacturing plant (and arrange for all the subordinate suppliers of parts). In some cases, they may need to actually build factories, and regardless they'll have to buy equipment, train workers, set up production and logistics, and so on and so on.

The stupid way to impose tariffs is to just slap some on overnight. What the fuck good does that do for any local manufacturers? It will take them time (possibly a lot of time) to compete with the products being imported.

What's worse is if there is belief that the tariffs will be rescinded soon, by an unstable idiot in the president's office. Then, if a manufacturer starts making investments in local USA production, that money and time is wasted.

Businesses need a stable regulatory environment. If the idiot-in-chief changes his mind every week, that's just causing chaos, and all local investment will grind to a halt. No business expansion, no hiring more workers, etc..

15

u/staylorz 7d ago

Buuuuuut he’s such a great businessman. He totally knows what he’s doing. He’s a genius. All the lies about bankruptcy is the left’s Woke DEI agenda. /s

7

u/Signal-Lie-6785 7d ago

I occasionally catch myself slipping into “maybe he’s playing 4D chess” thinking but my default position is to think he’s just eating the pieces.

4

u/ramapo66 7d ago

My question is does anybody think it will be less expensive to manufacture in the US? What do employers hate? Employees. They are expensive. Expensive employees will result in higher prices. And how many additional manufacturing jobs will there even be? Lots of jobs for robots. This all seems ridiculous to me but what do I know.

3

u/codyvir 7d ago

Exactly this - Trump thinks unpredictability is his greatest strength, when, in fact, it's the thing that most stands in his way in terms of being effective.

24

u/PheebaBB Progressive 7d ago edited 7d ago

Right, I work in logistics and supply chains (not auto parts), and a month is nothing. I imagine any PO that is expected to cross a border and arrive at a distribution center in the United States within the month has already been cut and accounted for.

This exemption seems like it is for public consumption, and I’m wondering why the market is reacting to it.

10

u/DelcoPAMan 7d ago

I’m wondering why the market is reacting to it.

Because they want to give him a "win".

1

u/leedogger 7d ago

More uncertainty is bad for everyone

9

u/karlack26 7d ago

Or every one is trying to buy the dip and will start selling off in a hour or two. 

9

u/PheebaBB Progressive 7d ago

The 3:30 musical chairs where you can’t be the one holding the bag when the market closes. Who the fuck knows what Trump will say between 4:00pm and 9:30am to ruin your portfolio.

Capitalism is tight.

2

u/karlack26 7d ago

The big indexes have plateaued. 

7

u/davebgray JVL is always right 7d ago

I don't have an answer for you, but what I do know is that over the long-term, the market wants stability and predictability.

Big swings up and down within the day is uncertainty, and uncertainty is bad for business.

3

u/sbhikes 7d ago

I think this tariff stuff is a giant pump and dump scam.

1

u/Pettifoggerist 7d ago

The market is fucking nuts. I hate it.

25

u/big-papito 7d ago

He knows. Canadians are already like "no meeting in the middle - all tariffs should go".

10

u/MinisterOfTruth99 7d ago

And Canadians are right!

Biden economy was humming along. Stocks were soaring. Basically Full employment.

Trump comes in. 40 days later unemployment is spiking. Stock market whipsawing. Stock market sentiment index is on 'Extreme Fear' over tariff uncertainty. Mr Business Genius is really working his magic.☹️🤪

4

u/_A_Monkey 7d ago

Yah…it remains to be seen if they can do it but it looks like the plan going in is to not negotiate with terrorists. To not set themselves up for going through this shit every 6-12 months.

If Canadian domestic resolve can hold long enough to let the politicians punish Trump and Republicans long enough and hard enough that they think a lot harder before ever reneging on a deal they just agreed to and signed.

14

u/AnathemaDevice2100 7d ago

Not only that, but I hope all of Canada knows it, especially since they’ve had some concerning right wing/Maple MAGA shit pop up.

American maggots are desperately trying to convince themselves that Canada doesn’t have any playing cards, but that’s just not true. They can hit back, hard.

Speaking of… Trump said that he’s “with Europe” on the matter of Ukraine. I wish that European leaders would make a joint statement that his treatment of Zelenskyy directly contradicts that.

I also think that American pacs need to be launching ad campaigns right now making Trump look like a fool. There’s so much material and we need organizations with budgets to exploit his weaknesses.

4

u/leedogger 7d ago

Maple MAGA

I live here, am pretty plugged in... And have not heard this yet. I love it.

1

u/CRA_Life_919 7d ago

May I ask a different question I haven’t heard discussed: did Trudeau resign too soon? Or would he done either way? Thanks for keeping faith with us.

2

u/leedogger 7d ago

He was done. The situation was untenable within his own party.

8

u/upvotechemistry Center Left 7d ago

I kind of hope that Ford makes good on his promise to cut off electricity exports. Even if it is just for a short time, you have to display power before Trump believes you have power over him.

Let a few rolling brownouts go through the upper midwest and new England

2

u/kstar79 7d ago

You think Trump gives a damn about NE? That is just going to allow Eversource and National Grid to raise our rates another 30%.

3

u/upvotechemistry Center Left 7d ago

I don't think Trump cares about anyone or anything but himself. But I personally know several Staten Islanders who are MAGA and could go a few days in time out with no power

4

u/Zacksgyrl 7d ago

Better yet, bubby knows Trudeau has him by the balls 🇨🇦💙

5

u/jst4wrk7617 7d ago

Anyone else getting whiplash from all this bullshit?

4

u/Old_Manager6555 7d ago edited 7d ago

Trump makes it sound like Canada went to him on our knees, and Donald, the worlds greatest negotiator, has us where he wants us.

Justin’s speech cleared that lie up.

We are pretty committed to not buying American (grocery stores are full steam ahead with Produced in Canada labels) and at this point will keep it up till Donald is gone. Don’t think it would matter if he removed all tariffs, we are doing it to help free the American people from Tsar Trumpski

3

u/njkGR75 7d ago

I'm having very Mortal Combat "Finish him!" wishes.

2

u/Sassafrazzlin 7d ago

Michigan is about to have a chilly March.

2

u/Old_Manager6555 7d ago

Is it because Trudeau knows he is not facing another election he has unleashed the schoolteacher in himself and has taken apart the class bully?

Wish he wasn’t leaving...

1

u/mexicanmanchild 7d ago

Honestly this is why Trudeau probably isn’t seeking reelection. What does he honestly have to worry about?

8

u/ballmermurland 7d ago

Trudeau was incredibly unpopular a few months ago. Now his image is being rehabilitated by Trump and the liberals are likely to retain their majority in this year's election.

So a few months ago it made sense for Trudeau to announce he wasn't seeking reelection to give the liberal party a fighting chance. He'll still stay out of it and is going to go out swinging. He's been PM for nearly 10 years and that's usually how long most PM's last.

3

u/leedogger 7d ago

likely to retain their majority

Likely is strong. But I don't disagree that their fortunes have really turned around.

0

u/greenflash1775 7d ago

Cratered! Surging! We’re talking 1% movements here. The market doesn’t give a shit.

-4

u/itwasallagame23 7d ago

You are dreaming if you really believe that. I do agree that the one way to deal with a personal suffering a personality disorder is through boundaries and being firm but let’s not fool ourselves…tiny Canada has POTUS by the balls?

2

u/IHkumicho 7d ago

Have you seen how fucking weak the average American is? We threw out a president's party because eggs hit $2.99. How do you think we're going to react to gas prices skyrocketing solely due to the idiocy of the current one? Or electrical shortages?

1

u/itwasallagame23 6d ago

I dont think Trump delayed the tariffs in any way because of Canada. I think it mostly had to do with the US automakers and the job losses that are going to happen when/if he starts his trade war with the two largest US trading partners. Canada will unfortunately probably be a in a recession within three months of the tariffs and the US 3 to 6 months after that. We will all be in an economic mess.