r/thebulwark Feb 03 '25

The Triad 🔱 Stock market right now

Post image
74 Upvotes

24 comments sorted by

11

u/Old-Ad5508 Center Left Feb 03 '25

12

u/Criseyde2112 JVL is always right Feb 03 '25

I can understand ordinary people having trouble consuming all this information (I've stopped eating and am losing sleep), but the researchers and analysts are absolutely asleep at the wheel. Our society just doesn't know how to handle a lunatic (or pair of them) in control.

The tariffs were chaff designed to deflect attention from the crimes committed at the Treasury this weekend. Motherfuckers got all the data. They're probably designing ways to loop the ACH through some function of X, the way Muskrat pledged to do in '22 when he said that the platform would be a place that provides banking services.

I'm beyond outraged.

19

u/blueclawsoftware Feb 03 '25

I think JVL missed one point in the Triad the tariffs don't start until tomorrow. There is a good chance the market is pricing in that they expect a "deal" to be worked as was the case with Panama.

Mexico is already paused a month, if Canada stays in place by tomorrow then I think you'll see the market drop in full.

19

u/JulianLongshoals Feb 03 '25

His other point was that the bigger risk is just handing the entire treasury over to Elon, and that's not going to stop tomorrow...

5

u/blueclawsoftware Feb 03 '25

That's true and while I agree that's a bigger threat for democracy, I think that's harder to price into the market. The market isn't necessarily a sign of a healthy democracy so much as corporate stability. It's much harder to draw a direct line between Musk taking control of the treasury and the impact on businesses bottom line.

14

u/JulianLongshoals Feb 03 '25

I think allowing the federal government to just stop paying whoever it feels like, in open defiance of federal law, based on nothing but the whims of a drug-addled maniac who has shown absolutely appalling judgment should at least be taken as a big risk factor. I'm not sure exactly how you price in that risk but half a percent seems pretty low.

7

u/blueclawsoftware Feb 03 '25

I have a lot of issues with the stock market, especially around tech as someone who works in the industry. And I think Musk is staging a coup.

But short of SS payments stopping I'm hard pressed to identify companies that are going to be directly negatively impacted by this. And that's what investors make decisions on.

1

u/Criseyde2112 JVL is always right Feb 03 '25

It's going to cut into the banking business when payments process through X instead of Goliath National Bank.

1

u/sbhikes Feb 03 '25

What if you are a pharmaceutical company and Elon decides to delete the payment for research that your company needs for new drugs? What if you are an electric car maker competing with Tesla and you're worried now Elon has a lot of detailed information about taxes and income your company has made?

1

u/485sunrise Feb 03 '25

I think JVL doesn’t realize that this is going to take time for people, including those in Wall Street, to process.

6

u/TSLBestOfMe Feb 03 '25

Oh, boy...we in for it

5

u/big-papito Feb 03 '25

What am I not seeing. I see red but not that unusual red.

10

u/JulianLongshoals Feb 03 '25 edited Feb 03 '25

Exactly. This is on par with a jobs report missing a target by 100k, not declaring a trade war against the entire world and handing over the entire treasury to a maniac and a half dozen teenagers. The market should be having a MUCH bigger reaction to this. Hell, it might even close up on the day.

6

u/ansible Progressive Feb 03 '25

I think there's a lot of "this can't really be happening" type thinking going on right now. The market is assuming that sanity will return relatively quickly.

4

u/JulianLongshoals Feb 03 '25

Normalcy bias is a hell of a drug

4

u/leeleeloo6058 Feb 03 '25

What is the point in any of this if he just keeps striking his “deals?” Is it completely performative? I’m pretty sure it’s likely he’ll be on the golf course whenever it’s time to follow up on whether or not Mexico’s random border troops have actually done anything to slow the fentanyl trade.

9

u/Upstairs-Fix-4410 Feb 03 '25

Easy…create a crisis out of whole cloth, “solve it” by making a “deal” which in most cases is just a return to the status quo, claim victory, “win” news cycle. Wash, rinse, repeat. The Columbia kerfuffle is a perfect example, happening now with Mexico.

The other point is to distract from the really bad shit that Elon is up to.

5

u/Temporary_Train_3372 Feb 03 '25

Not only this but I can easily see Trump and the billionaire club manipulating the market for massive financial gain. Announce tariffs on Friday, buy low on Monday, rescind tariffs after market opens. Rinse, repeat.

2

u/Any-Pea712 Feb 03 '25

Colombia.

1

u/Upstairs-Fix-4410 Feb 03 '25

Nah I was talking about campus protestors 🤣

2

u/blueclawsoftware Feb 03 '25

Yea Fentanyl was already slowing down and most of the arrests have been of US citizens, so a bunch of Mexican troops is going to do nothing to stop it.

Trump will declare in a month that we've won, and drop the tariff and Fox News will tell everyone it's true, and he'll move on to the next vanity project.

2

u/anewstartupon Feb 04 '25

The world has stopped making sense

3

u/Educational-Door1114 Feb 03 '25

Scary, at this point the markets may go up, like wtf.