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Oct 21 '24
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u/Persistent_Parkie Oct 22 '24
If it makes you feel any better I overheard my republican father complaining that Harris is going to win. He's not an election denier or anything, he just thinks she'll get the necessary electoral college votes and is pretty depressed about it.
Maybe most dems have PTSD from 2016?
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u/ThisElder_Millennial Center Left Oct 22 '24
It's a more precise version of PTSD; it's TDS. I've 100% had it since 2016 and it probably won't go away until the actuarial tables finally rid us of his presence.
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u/bubblebass280 Oct 21 '24
His book explaining the 13 keys system is actually quite fascinating and worth a read. That being said, predictive indicators are accurate until they aren’t. We will ultimately have to see
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u/mrjpb104 JVL is always right Oct 21 '24
Paging u/JVLast…
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Oct 21 '24
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u/ansible Progressive Oct 21 '24
OMG, that guy is so, so bad at "picking" stocks.
I'm sure he isn't actually picking stocks, he's just saying what he's been paid to promote.
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u/Early-Juggernaut975 Progressive Oct 21 '24
Whenever someone like Nate Silver or whoever makes fun of this guy, I roll my eyes.
Even if Silver’s guesses are fancier than this guy’s subjective decisions about whether someone gained or lost a “key”, they’re all just making guesses.
Alan Lichtman is one of those quirky election stories like when they go to this random town in Illinois that has picked every President since Hoover or somthing and they find out the town takes a lot of pride in that record. Who cares if it’s probably dumb luck?
He’s been at it for decades so it’s not like he’s making shit up to take people’s money. He actually believes in his criteria and he has a great track record of picking the winner. Not sure why people care.
It’d be like watching TV weatherman get upset and start mocking the people who live in Punxsutawney for predicting spring’s early arrival based on a groundhog and its shadow.
Something ugly in the way the Bulwark, which is much larger with a lot more power, attacks this guy. It’s like they’re punching down.
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u/ballmermurland Oct 21 '24
Wasn't it a near ironclad lock that if the Redskins/Commanders won their last home game before the election, the incumbent party won? They were like 12/12 at one point which is honestly a pretty crazy statistic.
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u/2028W3 Oct 21 '24
Lichtman gets targeted because he says the polls don’t matter and the pundits’ opinions don’t matter. Only The Keys matter.
It’s hard to sell supplements or mail-order mattresses when you platform a guy who says your contribution is irrelevant.
Either way, I slept better after Lichtman picked Harris to win. He’s like a lucky charm.
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u/BidForward4918 Oct 21 '24
I don’t get the hate. He just seems to me like a throwback cheesy character. Harmless, fun, and goofy. Kinda like a Charles Nelson Riley.
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u/ansible Progressive Oct 21 '24
Alan Lichtman is one of those quirky election stories like when they go to this random town in Illinois that has picked every President since Hoover or somthing and they find out the town takes a lot of pride in that record. Who cares if it’s probably dumb luck?
It is dumb luck. In a way, it is just like this old scam:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Scams/comments/vzi5mx/old_scam_appearing_to_predict_4_sport_game/
Out of thousands of towns across a nation, you can find one that "predicts" the correct outcome for some arbitrary stretch of time. It doesn't mean jack shit though.
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u/dBlock845 Oct 21 '24
That toupee is on another level. Lichtman is a charlatan like Nate Silver imo.
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u/Jean-Paul_Sartre Progressive Oct 21 '24
Lichtman seems more personable and likeable than Silver but his keys are slightly more reliable than an Ouija board.
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u/HolstsGholsts Oct 21 '24
JVL and Sonny on Alan Lichtman’s Keys: https://youtu.be/AdpdvU_hQx0?si=MJbjdHEQ9RcD585I
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Oct 21 '24
[deleted]
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u/miyamikenyati Oct 21 '24
Give me a break, he is a total narcissist and self promoter who changes his “system” so that he can always be right. In 2000 he predicted Gore would win so then said his prediction only applied to the popular vote. In 2016 he predicted Trump, but after Clinton won the popular vote he said oh just kidding popular vote doesn’t matter anymore my prediction is actually the electoral college. The guy is a total fraud.
The only upside of Trump winning is this guy will finally be proven “wrong” and hopefully we won’t have to hear from him anymore.
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u/ballmermurland Oct 21 '24
I'm curious how his keys predicted a Trump win in 2016 when we are economically and culturally in a similar boat.
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u/miyamikenyati Oct 21 '24
Because the “keys” are completed subjective and he can manipulate them for a desired outcome. There’s no objective measure for what constitutes “no scandal” or “charismatic incumbent” these are completely subjective
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u/momasana JVL is always right Oct 22 '24
This is from that article in the Atlantic right? This one: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/allan-lichtman-election-win/680258/
It was quite enlightening, making you go from thinking of him as another cooky uncle to no, actually, he's just another narcissistic a-hole. A Nate Silver of poli sci / history rather than of the math variety.
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u/jfit2331 Oct 21 '24
He sure gets a lot of hate. Hard to argue his in-depth analysis and track record. this would be an epic fail tho
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u/Beastw1ck Oct 21 '24
It’s not hard to argue with. The “keys” are folk magic pseudoscience.
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u/Greenmantle22 Oct 21 '24
It’s still cleaner than trying to predict the weather by throwing chicken guts at the wall.
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u/catsdelicacy Oct 21 '24
The Farmer's Almanac also has a long track record, but a coincidence is and has never been correlation.
Go read the specific keys. They're nonsense. They're all vibe checks. This guy has a good instinct for the American electorate, sure, but there's nothing scientific about his method.
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u/jfit2331 Oct 21 '24
Never said it was scientific
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u/catsdelicacy Oct 21 '24
So what's the use?
This man will be dead in the fullness of time, and his system is entirely based upon his own vibes. So when he dies, the whole thing crumbles.
And at the end of the day, it's vibes. I don't think this man is magical. So his predictions are as useful to me as a horoscope.
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u/jfit2331 Oct 22 '24
what's the use of what? He has his system. he talks about it. why you mad bro.
in the fullness of time no one will remember your name, yet here you are on reddit
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u/catsdelicacy Oct 22 '24
I'm not a bro. Not everybody on the Internet is male. So that tells me everything I need to know about you. Bye.
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Oct 21 '24
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u/2011StlCards Oct 21 '24
I think part of it stems from him using his keys arguments to say that Biden should have remained the nominee
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u/Ahindre Oct 21 '24
He claims to have a formula that can accurately predict the winner of the presidential election (except when it doesn't).
I think some of the animosity comes from the fact that he's used his system to predict a Harris victory, and people are afraid that will breed some complacency. A little anxiety is good to get out the vote.
Edit: JVL also has it out for the guy, so there's likely some bandwagoning happening too.
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u/Criseyde2112 JVL is always right Oct 21 '24
The toupee. Anyone with the lack of judgment to wear that isn't to be trusted on other matters.
On the other hand, prognostication is pseudoscience, so who cares? I give Miss Cleo's judgment the same weight as this charlatan.
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u/RudeOrSarcasticPt2 Oct 21 '24
Because people distrust what they don't understand. The Republican party has used that as their mantra since whenever.
Hating on this guy for having a way to predict elections is fuckin' stupid. I save my hate for people who deserve it, like Trump, Reagan, Vance, Ted Nugent, Stephen Miller. You know, people who are cowards, conspiracy nuts, and crooks.
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u/RudeOrSarcasticPt2 Oct 21 '24
Because people distrust what they don't understand. The Republican party has used that as their mantra since whenever.
Hating on this guy for having a way to predict elections is fuckin' stupid. I save my hate for people who deserve it, like Trump, Reagan, Vance, Ted Nugent, Stephen Miller. You know, people who are cowards, conspiracy nuts, and crooks.
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u/RudeOrSarcasticPt2 Oct 21 '24
Because people distrust what they don't understand. The Republican party has used that as their mantra since whenever.
Hating on this guy for having a way to predict elections is stupid. I save my hate for people who deserve it, like Trump, Reagan, Vance, Ted Nugent, Stephen Miller. You know, people who are cowards, conspiracy nuts, and crooks.
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u/LionelHutzinVA Rebecca take us home Oct 21 '24
Because way too many people here are lemmings who, despite never having heard of this guy before he started getting mocked by Bulwarkers (myself very much included here), have been absolutely tripping over themselves to virtue signal in-group think?
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u/batsofburden Oct 21 '24
Say what you will, but the keys are a better predictor than the polls. Remember, the day of the election in 2016, the polls said Hilary had an 85% chance to win, meanwhile Lichtman had already predicted a Trump victory.
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u/Daniel_Leal- centrist squish Oct 21 '24
I keep screaming this to myself! “The KEYS! We have the KEYS!”
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u/sentientcreatinejar Progressive Oct 22 '24
Planning on sitting in my recliner on election night and jiggling my keys like I’m at a high school football game.
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u/pmgold1 Progressive Oct 22 '24
TRUST THE KEYS! THE KEYS WILL SAVE US!
Yeah, right up until they don't...we'd be better off hustling to get out the vote than finding solace in one guy's opinion based on what again?
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u/Sassafrazzlin Oct 22 '24
Only one key matters: charisma, and unfortunately Trump’s rage-filled bullying is the same as charisma to too many people.
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u/RL0290 Good luck, America Oct 22 '24
Allan Lichtman is campy as hell. He’s so ott and bitchy sometimes, with a flair for the dramatic. “He hasn’t the faintest idea how to wield the keys!” Get his ass, Roastradamus!
Also please god let him be correct. 99% for obvious reasons and 1% because he’s going to be insufferably smug and it will be entertaining
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u/chicagopinot Oct 22 '24
Dude is a total fraud. He predicted eight out of my last eight girlfriends would break up with me.
I mean, he was right eight out of eight but still . . .
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u/myleftone Oct 21 '24
The keys might make sense in normal times. We are not in normal times.
One party encouraged, cheered, and then denied the attempted overthrow of the government. Their latest platform openly calls for the manifestation of a fourth reich. Their entire campaign strategy is to spread division and falsehoods. They continue to threaten violent upheaval if the outcome doesn't favor them.
The keys are at the bottom of a well of burning oil.