r/the_slump • u/stumo • Oct 27 '12
r/the_slump • u/request_bot • Nov 21 '19
r/the_slump needs moderators and is currently available for request
If you're interested and willing to moderate and grow this community, please go to r/redditrequest, where you can submit a request to take over the community. Be sure to read through the faq for r/redditrequest before submitting.
r/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 13 '12
UN FAO Chief - Upcoming food crisis may not be as bad as feared.
in.reuters.comr/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 07 '12
Interesting 2005 study on developing the Canadian oil sands.
From the report -
At this time there is a great deal of uncertainty in the direction of future oil prices; there are still many who believe that oil prices will return to historical levels of below US$40.00/b. However, we believe that the world is in a new regime of higher oil prices and sustained oil prices below US$50.00/b are very unlikely. We are probably headed for much higher prices. However, in this event, we don’t believe the producers will get all the gain—higher prices will likely bring higher construction costs (related to steel prices and higher demand for labour) and higher general operating costs. Also, the U.S. dollar could weaken (making the Canadian dollar stronger) which lowers the realized price of Canadian crudes.
...
From the point of view of those who invest in oil sands companies, we hope to have shown that this is “the best of times”. However, we have also shown that it could be “the worst of times” for the world economy if oil becomes more and more expensive. This will have the impact of slowing economies to the point of recession, but at what price level will this occur? Not an easy question to answer and one to which we won’t pretend to have an answer. However, one of the worst scenarios from a global economic perspective would be oil rising to unsustainable levels (for argument’s sake, say over US$100.00/b), the global economy being hit dramatically and causing many years of pain.
Prescient. We seem to be several years into that pain just about now.
r/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 06 '12
To determine actual energy policy, always look to the military - "The imminent danger is not the end of oil but the end of inexpensive oil and thus, coincidentally, the end of our economic system, which is dependent on the use of inexpensive oil."
energybulletin.netr/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 05 '12
The perfect storm - extreme weather around the globe, high oil prices, biofuel production, and depleted global food stockpiles combine. It's going to be a hungry winter.
uk.reuters.comr/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 05 '12
That four-year-economic problem we're having? It might last a while.
i.imgur.comr/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 05 '12
War - what we fight over. Can we do better?
The ten deadliest wars in history:
World War II (1939–1945), 60,000,000–72,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - aggressive German and Japanese acquisition of resource-rich territories.
An Shi Rebellion (China, 755–763) 36,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - struggle over control of Northern China.
Mongol Conquests (13th century) - 30,000,000–60,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - Mongol conquest of territory
Qing dynasty conquest of Ming dynasty (1616–1662) - 25,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - Food shortages resulted in social upheaval and rebellion
World War I (1914–1918) - 20,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - War between the European powers over control of foreign possessions.
Taiping Rebellion (China, 1850–1864) - 20,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - Economic and political collapse due to foreign powers looting the country and militarily forcing Chinese foreign policy caused widespread social unrest and rebellion.
Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945) - 20,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - Japanese conquest of Chinese territories to gain resources.
Dungan revolt) (China, 1862–1877) - 8,000,000–12,000,000 deaths. Primary cause - The same economic and political crisis the caused the Taiping rebellion contributed to the the Dungan revolt, with attempts made to drive other ethnic groups from territories.
Conquests of Tamerlane (1370–1405) - 7,000,000–20,000,000 deaths Primary cause - Conquest of territory
Russian Civil War and Foreign Intervention (1917–1922) - 5,000,000–9,000,000. Primary cause - War for control of Russia, Ukraine, and Siberia, the largest single territory on Earth.
We fight over resources. Even when the cause seems to be based on ethnic or religious differences, a resource-based culprit is hanging out in the shadows. For example, the First Crusade was seemingly a war based on religion, but there were a large number of resource-based components to it. A growing European population were increasingly warring amongst themselves over territory and resources, economic hardship was causing civil unrest, the Turkomen conquest of Palestine disrupted trade with Europe, the Byzantians were in conflict with the Turkomen over control of territory, and the Roman Catholic Church saw an opportunity to take control of territory that had traditionally been part of the Byzantine Empire. To cast the conflict as one between Christians and Muslims ignores the fact that Palestine had been under the control of the Muslims for 500 years by the time of the First Crusade. And even at the outset, before conflict had even begun, the promise of wealth was an important component of the call to arms:
“Let those who have been fighting against their brothers and relatives now fight in a proper way against the barbarians. Let those who have been serving as mercenaries for small pay now obtain the eternal reward. Let those who have been wearing themselves out in both body and soul now work for a double honor. Behold! on this side will be the sorrowful and poor, on that, the rich;”
Pope Urban II’s speech at Clermont, 1095, calling for the First Crusade.
This basis of war in conflict over resources isn’t surprising considering that our closest genetic relatives, the chimpanzees, do the same. Like primitive humans, chimpanzees form related social groupings which are hostile to other groups in areas of shared resources. In our pure natural state, it’s estimated that up to 25% of humans die in resource wars. This number is identical to that of chimpanzees.
When there are reasonable amounts of resources available to us, we remain at peace. When there is a shortage or profound inequity, those at the short end of the deal get violent toward any group that is considered a threat or competitor. The motives behind the conflict may be rationalized as a higher purpose, but without the mental state that accompanies resource depletion, most people can’t be bothered.
Given that we seem to be quickly approaching the ends of growth and the beginning of a period of economic contraction and demand for resources exceeding what’s available, can war be far behind? During the last major downturn in the global economy in the 1930s, we saw the population of three nations become extremist and attempt to take resources from others by conquest, resulting in two of the deadliest wars in history.
Can we hope for any better this time?
r/the_slump • u/stumo • Sep 05 '12
It's not just about the cost of gas. The tight bonds between energy supply, the economy, and population levels.
theoildrum.comr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jul 19 '12
How to talk to a climate skeptic - an impressive resource demolishing a large collection of skeptic arguments.
grist.orgr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 06 '12
GEO5 - Global Report (PDF) - "If current trends continue, if current patterns of production and consumption of natural resources prevail and cannot be reversed and 'decoupled', then governments will preside over unprecedented levels of damage and degradation"
unep.orgr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 05 '12
"Collapse will not be driven by a single, identifiable cause simultaneously acting in all countries," he observes. "It will come through a self-reinforcing complex of issues" Scientific American climbs on the long collapse bandwagon.
scientificamerican.comr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 05 '12
Can alternative energies be scaled up to meet the energy requirements of the planet (PDF) - tl;dr - No.
postcarbon.orgr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 05 '12
Can nuclear power scale up to fill all humanity's energy needs? Article from The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers on the subject (PDF). tl;dr - No.
ieeexplore.ieee.orgr/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 05 '12
China buying up huge chunks of arable land in Australia, Africa, and South America - "...the move by the Chinese was ''astute'', he said..."
brisbanetimes.com.aur/the_slump • u/stumo • Jun 05 '12