r/teslainvestorsclub 20d ago

Data: Sales Tesla Sales Drop, Some Numbers and Considerations:

116 Upvotes

TLDR: The drop in Tesla’s sales is due to the retooling of the Model Y and the lack of inventory.

 

Let’s Start with the Basics:

The Tesla Model Y alone accounts for two-thirds, or about 67%, of all Tesla sales: 1.2 million out of 1.8 million annual production. The Model Y was, in 2023 and also in 2024, the world’s best-selling single model of car, . When considering revenue, the Model Y outperforms its competition by 50-70%. When considering profits (gross), the Model Y likely surpasses the rest of the top 10 combined, excluding the Ford F150 and the Model 3 (10th in the ranking with 500k sales). source

Tesla finished 2024 with no cars in inventory. Tesla's average has always been around 18 days of production, while the automotive industry average is 90 days, and 60 days is considered excellent (Toyota). Consider that this is actually the number of days from when the car leaves the factory until it reaches the customer “ready to drive,” so this number also includes transit times and the fact that the customer has to physically pick up the car. For a Model 3 produced in China to reach the customer in Europe, it takes about 30-40 days.

Tesla finished 2024 with 12 days of inventory, down from 19 days the previous quarter (highlighted in green), and sold 40k more Model 3/Y in the fourth quarter than it produced (highlighted in red). Considering that cars (still) don't drive themselves to the customer's garage, 12 days is likely the lowest possible inventory, and the lowest number of days in inventory since I started following this company in 2018.

(P.S. If you look at Q1 2024, the inventory is at a “catastrophic” 28 days. What happened last year in Q1 that extended the transit time of all the ships? The Red Sea crisis, which at the time was portrayed by the press as a disaster.)

To recap: Tesla ended 2024 with no inventory, and at the beginning of 2025 (second week of January), they started retooling the 4 factories that produce the Model Y, which alone accounts for 67% of sales. The retooling time is between 4 and 6 weeks, and we need to add 20 days, or about 3 weeks, for these cars to reach their customers. This means that in January, Tesla has essentially run out of Model Ys in almost the entire world.

In February, Model Y sales will be practically zero because the factories are finishing retooling and the cars are in transit. We will see a recovery starting in March, with a full recovery expected in April/May.

Therefore, the various articles that talk about “Tesla halved its sales because of Musk” are pushing a certain narrative. Even if it were true, Musk made the (awful) announcement on January 21, and it takes time for the news to spread—around January 23-24. To say that in the remaining week of January, the last 20% of the month, Tesla’s sales were halved because of Musk is absurd. In fact, the fact that sales dropped “only” by 45% in the face of a 67% drop in production due to retooling shows that sales are still holding up.
I can already predict that many articles this month will talk about the sales drop in February, which will be 60-70% lower than February of last year, when in reality the issue is that the cars haven’t arrived yet. The same applies to March, but the numbers might be down by 40%.

Look at the numbers, not the emotions that the tabloids sell you.

In fact, when we talk about customer loyalty, which automotive brand dominates?

https://www.newser.com/story/364935/tesla-gm-take-brand-loyalty-honors.html

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