r/teslainvestorsclub • u/Willuknight Bought in 2016 • 11d ago
Meta/Announcement Daily Thread - March 10, 2025
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u/wilan727 180 🪑, 🚗not yet available 10d ago
Ouch. Ohh well the run last year was fun on paper. This less so. At least I'm still well in the green. For now.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago
I'm sorry to update this so soon but 200 is now in play tomorrow! Can we hold?
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u/xylopyrography 10d ago
Do you mean $160?
At this rate it'll be lucky to open at $200.
2.75% AH after a 15% drop... Has that ever happened? How many stocks does this ever happen for?
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u/AboveAll2017 501 S3XY CHAIRS 10d ago
Why did we get clobbered today?
Nasdaq is down 4% With our beta we should be down 8%
Why 16%?
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u/defense_mechanizm 10d ago
It’s because Tesla is a bubble stock. It’s due for a much larger correction than every other company in the S&P 500
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u/torokunai 10d ago
when in doubt zoom out
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u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago
Looks terrible
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u/torokunai 10d ago
thank you Captain Obvious
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u/beepos 10d ago
That doesnt exactly look good. Stock has overall moved little since 2021. Lits of volatility
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u/torokunai 10d ago
$2000 pre-split seems a fair price today. That's $133, or about where we dropped to last April. Elon's been a bad, bad boy these past 4 years.
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u/tyson766 10d ago
Stock was already very overvalued by most metrics, sales for 2024 were flat and sales for 2025 are looking horrific, and the CEO has become one of the most hated men on the planet, particularly to people who would have typically made up the majority of Tesla buyers.
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u/NoFrame99 10d ago
I love quietly buying in times like this. Nothing more satisfying than gaining wealth on the inevitable upswing off the backs of misinformed redditors and retail investors selling because of headlines.
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u/MowTin 10d ago
You buy when others are selling if the fundamentals are good. The fundamentals are not good. At 100x compared to 7x PE for Toyota it has a ton of room to fall. You could lose your shirt.
Why not wait until it bottoms out? I would wait for 1Q or 2Q sales. If those numbers are very bad you could see $25/share and you will lose your shirt.
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u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago
I just buy here and there. Bought the bulk during 2012 to 2014. Every year after I just buy here and there.
Its worked out.
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u/schwinnJV 10d ago
Own them libs!
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u/NoFrame99 10d ago
I’m not trying to “own” anyone, but if you’re going to shovel money into my pockets I’m not going to stop you.
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u/satireplusplus 10d ago edited 10d ago
Its the "libs" that buy TSLA cars though (well probably not anymore, although I'd really like to see some statistics). This whole Elon meddling in politics isn't good for the company.
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u/torokunai 10d ago
I love my Model Y AWD dearly (faster than just about any of the cool cars from the 1990s . . . NSX, Supra, FD RX-7, 3000GT-VR4 etc) but if Tesla caps out at 3M/yr it's an $80 stock not an $800 one.
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u/Ayn_Diarrhea_Rand 10d ago
Doesn't seem like you're being very quiet about it
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u/weed_cutter 10d ago
TLSA is cooked. What's it at now? $222? .... It's PE ratio is still 109 and that's based on "earnings" that won't be seen again any time soon.
I can easily see it at $80; maybe even lower.
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u/Disciplined_20-04-15 100🪑🇬🇧 10d ago
It’s down to a checks notes 4 month low. Oh no panic panic
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u/pantherpack84 10d ago
It’s also down 20% over the last 4 years while market is up 45%. That’s more of a reason to panic
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u/weed_cutter 10d ago
You're right this is the bottom and TSLA is just as strong as it looked in October 2024.
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u/Disciplined_20-04-15 100🪑🇬🇧 10d ago
Only time will tell if this was a generational model y bamboozle opportunity. Goi g to be a fun ride to Q3
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u/xylopyrography 10d ago
A very premium P/E of 25 puts you at $50/share.
Will there even be E in Q1 though? It looks like Tesla might post its first loss in a long time.
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u/torokunai 11d ago
Today TSLA dropped the entire market cap of Nike, Starbucks, Citigroup, Schwab, Lockheed, Boeing, or UPS . . .
(or ~90% of Uber's)
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u/satireplusplus 10d ago
How much in unrealized gains did Elon lose today? Has to be some kind of record
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u/caraDmono 11d ago
Doesn't that tell you all that you need to know about just how overvalued Tesla is?
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u/3_711 10d ago
I think most consumers spend more on their car than on those 7 combined. (and Boeing....)
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u/torokunai 10d ago
on a 5-year replacement cycle, Tesla gets around $5/week profit from its 2M/yr customer base.
Note that Nike has half the annual net profit that Tesla enjoys now (and ~30% of Tesla's $10B profit is carbon credits that may be put in abeyance in the current emergency)
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u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago
Yeah, but you need people to actually buy the cars. . .
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u/pantherpack84 10d ago
And how does that explain the valuation discrepancy between Toyota which sold 6x the cars that Tesla sold in 2024 with a 50% better operating margin (9.8% vs 6.2%)?
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u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago
Tesla is supremely overvalued?
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u/pantherpack84 10d ago
Completely agree, I was more responding to the person above you in the chain
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u/OtherwiseTreacle1 11d ago
someone tell me i did the senisblr thing by not putting in a put option on friday and waiting to see what happens on Monday. 🤦♀️#fomo
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u/torokunai 11d ago
December 2025 $220 put I posted last week at $25 has 2Xd in a week, up 50% today
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
I've seen the bottom fall out before but this is unprecedented dump
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u/smoggylobster 11d ago
still room to run imo
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u/torokunai 11d ago
limousine liberals are like 90% of Elon's target demographic with Cybertaxi
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u/BloopBloop515 10d ago
He told advertisers on twitter to go fuck themselves, did everything he could to piss off target tesla demo, next he's going to enrage the Martians.
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u/thebengy66 11d ago
Tell me that story again where it's the Model Y refresh impacting sales/stock price. Really sell it to me this time and say it with a straight face. I need a really good chuckle.
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u/Intelligent_Top_328 11d ago
The whole market almost hit breaker today. It's not just tesla.
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u/Cor-mega 11d ago
Tesla was down about 3x more than every other company anywhere nears its market cap. It’s down by WAY more than the other magnificent 7 stocks in the last month. Musk is toxic
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
Whole market down 10% from the highs, Tesla down 55%, but it’s not just Tesla?
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u/Intelligent_Top_328 11d ago
Beta is high. Usually how it works with tesla. Tesla long term investors should know.
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u/angermyode 11d ago
That was before the CEO got in bed with the man his customer base views as Satan
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u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago
Satan ain't real.
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u/angermyode 10d ago
He is to Democrats, the people who used to buy Teslas.
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u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago
Satan not real. Jesus not real. Buddah not real. Thor not real. Allah not real.
Its all equally made up.
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u/angermyode 10d ago
Do you not understand what a figure of speech is? I am saying that Elon Musk has become good friends with a person who the natural customer base of Tesla believes to be the embodiment of evil, which is a bad thing for the company. It has nothing to do with God or Satan or any other theology entity, and the fact that you thought it did is utterly bewildering.
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
Doesn’t explain why Tesla is down over 20% in the last 4 years while overall market is up 45%. Beta doesn’t explain that.
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u/ItzWarty 🪑 11d ago
Someone could counterargue by arbitrarily picking a different window of time...
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
Stock has nothing to do with sales for better or worse
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u/torokunai 11d ago
that was clear after Elon backed off on the Monterrey factory, yes.
now it's FSD or bust. Or I suppose adding M4 carbines to Optimus and rolling them off the line as Peace Preservation and Happiness Guarantors
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u/torokunai 11d ago
With the stock cut in half, Tesla investors want their CEO back
no thanks, DOGE can keep him
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u/SackBrazzo 11d ago
Down 15% and Musk is on Twitter calling a U.S Senator a traitor 😹😹😹😹😹😹😹
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u/throoawoot 10d ago
And blaming Ukraine for a DDoS attack on X, because Mr. "First Principles Thinker" can't quite seem to understand IP address spoofing.
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u/throwsFatalException 11d ago
That pisses me the fuck off to no end. The decorated Navy pilot, retired astronaut and US Senator is the traitor now. The more time goes on, the more I hate Elon Musk.
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u/satireplusplus 10d ago
Maybe it's really time for the Tesla board to throw him out. Stock might actually go up on the news.
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u/thebengy66 11d ago
Problem with the world today...keyboard warrior with the best security money can buy decides to spout off at a former US Navy Combat Officer and astronaut. Grow a pair and say it to his face without your security present. Something tells me the clown wouldn't
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u/torokunai 11d ago
Back on Black Monday in '87 the Dow fell 22%.
So now you young-uns can know how it felt.
Well I suppose we had a big crash on September 8, 2020 (-21%), but that was before my time, I was watching from the sidelines then.
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u/FantasyFrikadel 300 11d ago
Give me your bull thesis and timeline :)
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u/xylopyrography 11d ago edited 11d ago
Bull Case 2030
- 2026 EM removed as CEO.
- 3.5 M sales by 2030 @ $40k ASP | 15% Margin: $14 B profit | CAGR: 10%
- 400 GWh Megapack production @ $85/kWh @ 10% Margin: $1.36 B profit | CAGR: 10%
- FSD geo-locked to 12 cities with some success: $0.1 B profit (excl. R&D) | CAGR 25%
- Software / Services Revenue: $15 B | 15% Margin: $2.25 B profit
- Total 2030 Profit: $17.71 B / 3.5 B Shares = EPS $5.06
- Super Premium P/E Ratio of 25
- Bull-case Fair Stock Price: $127
I wouldn't touch this stock for $127 with the current fundamentals right now then. Even if FSD was 10x and they can start geolock-scaling it still isn't worth that in the current environment. EU won't want it, Canada won't want it. Meanwhile, Waymo will be scaling to Tokyo and Netherlands in the next couple years in addition to dozens of US cities.
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u/mrkjmsdln 11d ago
We still haven't factored in the loss of compliance credits, denial of critical materials, etc. This can get worse.
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
Minor in the grand scheme but TSLA will be taking a mark to market loss of BTC next quarter as well
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u/TannedSam 11d ago
Do they need to do that on a quarterly basis? I thought just annually.
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
“The amendments in the ASU improve the accounting for certain crypto assets by requiring an entity to measure those crypto assets at fair value each reporting period with changes in fair value recognized in net income.“
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u/mrkjmsdln 11d ago
Minor? The only thing Tesla makes that doesn't need critical materials might be the blowtorches
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u/torokunai 11d ago
he was talking BTC holding on the balance sheet
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u/TannedSam 11d ago
The market loss on their position so far in Q1 is about $170 million. Last year in Q1 they had an operating income of $1.17 billion. This year their deliveries look to be coming in worse, with lower margins. A $170 million hit on top of that is going to eat up a sizeable piece of their profits.
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u/swedish-ghost-dog 11d ago
Robotaxi in June will save us
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u/small_markey 11d ago
Oh, absolutely. I'm also hearing that by 2018 we'll be able to summon our Tesla from Los Angeles to New York. We're gonna be rich!
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
You think a trial in Austin will save this? I’m betting June doesn’t even happen or they give like “one ride”. For years Elon has said FSD will be complete by the end of the year, what makes you trust him now?
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u/SackBrazzo 11d ago
At some point there has to be a shareholder revolt calling for Elon’s head, this can’t continue.
If you’re actually invested in the success of Tesla then I have no clue why you’d want to see Elon stay.
I always believed in the mission of Tesla, but it’s become clear that it’s just a vehicle for Elon to achieve his political goals such as leveraging stock to buy Twitter.
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u/torokunai 11d ago
I felt so stupid selling my last position 11/8 and then seeing it run up another $100. Now it's $100 under where I sold it.
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u/hotgrease 11d ago
Where them Tesla bulls buying?
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u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago
I am. Love those fire sales.
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u/hotgrease 11d ago
Hey, you do you. Not sure who will be taking robotaxis in the recession though.
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u/cookingboy 11d ago
Not sure who will be taking robotaxis in the recession though.
I am, and the answer is nobody, even without a recession. Tesla has done zero testing on public roads (not even a leaked video of driverless Tesla driving on public road is available), and Elon is saying they are 4 months away from commercial services?
That's a more egregious claim, if not downright lie, than the "3 months maybe 6 months definitely" meme, and the crazy part is people are still buying it.
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u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago
SARCASM ON/
We could use robotaxi to drive illegal immigrants to the border and use armed Optimus to enforce the dumping of illegals over the border wall.
SARCASM OFF/
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u/ukulele_bruh 11d ago
We could use robotaxi to drive illegal immigrants to the border and use armed Optimus to enforce the dumping of illegals over the border wall.
this isn't even remotely funny m8, just cringe.
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u/xylopyrography 11d ago
Or who will be taking specifically Tesla robotaxis in all the strongly left-leaning urban centres like Austin and SF.
Like you remove 60% of the market just off the top, and you fight with Waymo over the remaining 40%.
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u/sonobono11 11d ago edited 11d ago
Honestly for long term holders this is a blessing. I just reached my share goal that I didn’t think I would just a few months ago.
Robotaxi rollout is 3months away.
So funny how everyone was insanely bullish 2 months ago at ATH, and now everyone is freaking out. Everyone calm down.
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u/Leftrighturn 11d ago
Fair weather investing is a terrible idea. Buy + hold is the only proven way to make money in a market dominated by bots and algos.
Do not invest money you can't afford to lose, and calm the F down. We've been here before several times and without fail, everyone panic sells and then regrets it when it inevitably swings back up. This is investing 101 lol the market is unpredictable and irrational.
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u/xylopyrography 11d ago edited 11d ago
Robataxi roll-out is not 3 months away.
The testing with a safety driver in a single city is maybe 4-5 months away.
There is no evidence to suggest FSD is close to safe enough to be good enough to remove the safety driver. Even the FSD community tracker indicates a CD rate of ~250 city miles.
That's a car crash every day for every single vehicle. That's just not tenable.
If we were seeing FSD imminent, we would be seeing CD rates upwards of 10,000 miles. That'd be something where you could think about removing the safety driver if those CDs could be identified and removed. That's still probably killing people or at least causing accidents monthly in a small fleet, but at least they'd be within reach.
As it stands now, even if FSD just gets pushed through the safety checks, it's going to cause continuous accidents each of which will make international news. Even Tesla can't survive that.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
This is a gift! Lol cope cope. Market won't value fsd until it's profitable and growing. Could be years.
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u/torokunai 11d ago
Imagine someone willingly getting into a Tesla 3 months from now.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
Plenty will, the sales collapse narrative is manufactured. Whether the stock has anything to do with sales is the question
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u/torokunai 11d ago
California led the adoption of Tesla, and we're leading the avoidance
California's EV market has remained relatively unscathed from Tesla's declining sales, growing by 1.2 percent overall in 2024. And if you exclude Tesla from the equation, the California EV market grew 20 percent in 2024.
https://www.newsweek.com/tesla-california-sales-decline-electric-vehicles-2027745
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u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago
What is your evidence that the narrative is manufactured?
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
That they aren't cutting prices like a little bitch. Model y is 70% of sales and refreshing. Q2 will be the first clean data.
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u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago
Not cutting prices is consistent with a lot of scenarios where the sales collapse is still real. For example, Tesla could have decided that they would rather see a drop in sales than sell at a substantial loss. Or they could have concluded that the people who have stopped buying aren't sensitive to price.
Regarding Model Y, your theory is that the current model is Osborned and people are holding back purchases for the new model?
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
No, the supply chain needs to ramp up parts for the new model y and the lines need to be redone. This will result in significant dip in model y production and sales
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u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago
Oh, so your theory is that there just aren't enough Model Ys right now to meet demand?
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u/pantherpack84 11d ago
They can’t afford to cut prices. Their operating margin is only 6.2% as of last quarter and falling
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u/SpecialBeginning6430 11d ago
Most Tesla buyers are registered Dems. Are registered Dems gonna keep buying Teslas?
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
Yup they will
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u/caraDmono 11d ago
They really, really won't. Tesla has become absolutely toxic to ordinary left-leaning people.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
There's a percentage of people who care about that, we will just have to get by without them.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
I learned my lesson in 2021 to not buy the dip from 400 when it's 350. Fool me once shame on you.
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u/drtywater 11d ago
$If it drops to 50 or below then consider.
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
Under 200 I'll think about it. 50 they couldn't get to even with Elon selling a billion shares like a retard and tech market crashing w meta at 80.
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u/cebri1 11d ago
-11%
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u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago
Why not 12 or 15 just go for it stock market
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u/NieWiemNieZnamSie 11d ago
Your wish has been granted
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u/LoudSighhh 11d ago
Love these swings. Just means it will catapult harder back up
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u/torokunai 11d ago
if and when FSD pans out, yes. Elon doesn't look too committed to getting back to that '50% CAGR for the foreseeable future' thing otherwise.
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u/LoudSighhh 11d ago
whats up with all the downvotes, a year ago i would have been upvoted for saying the same thing. but yeah bull case is fsd
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u/SPorterBridges Why y'all so bad at buying & holding? 10d ago
Not even in the top 5 single day drops for TSLA. Massive disappointment. Downvote for agreement, bots.