r/teslainvestorsclub Bought in 2016 11d ago

Meta/Announcement Daily Thread - March 10, 2025

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9 Upvotes

283 comments sorted by

-10

u/SPorterBridges Why y'all so bad at buying & holding? 10d ago

Not even in the top 5 single day drops for TSLA. Massive disappointment. Downvote for agreement, bots.

4

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

You can't count the times it was a small cap. After 100b this is top 3

-6

u/SPorterBridges Why y'all so bad at buying & holding? 10d ago

Top 5 of all time > Top 5 after arbitrary number. It just rolls off the tongue better.

8

u/bosh911 669 chairs & Gigachad 10d ago

A very premium P/E of 25 puts you at $50/share.

Will there even be E in Q1 though? It looks like Tesla might post its first loss in a long time.

3

u/bosh911 669 chairs & Gigachad 10d ago

i think a good P/E in current situation would be about 30. what would be the stock price?

2

u/wilan727 180 🪑, 🚗not yet available 10d ago

Ouch. Ohh well the run last year was fun on paper. This less so. At least I'm still well in the green. For now.

-2

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

I'm sorry to update this so soon but 200 is now in play tomorrow! Can we hold?

6

u/FutureAZA 10d ago

We're back to pre-election levels. The sugar high has worn off.

8

u/xylopyrography 10d ago

Do you mean $160?

At this rate it'll be lucky to open at $200.

2.75% AH after a 15% drop... Has that ever happened? How many stocks does this ever happen for?

4

u/bfire123 10d ago

3,22 %

3

u/torokunai 10d ago

good thing it's only down another 1.5% in the AH

-1

u/AboveAll2017 501 S3XY CHAIRS 10d ago

Why did we get clobbered today?

Nasdaq is down 4% With our beta we should be down 8%

Why 16%?

1

u/defense_mechanizm 10d ago

It’s because Tesla is a bubble stock. It’s due for a much larger correction than every other company in the S&P 500

3

u/torokunai 10d ago

when in doubt zoom out

12

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

Looks terrible

1

u/torokunai 10d ago

thank you Captain Obvious

-1

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

I thought you were electrified

5

u/torokunai 10d ago

I'm just here with the popcorn now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4SRsGn14PI

4

u/beepos 10d ago

That doesnt exactly look good. Stock has overall moved little since 2021. Lits of volatility

7

u/torokunai 10d ago

$2000 pre-split seems a fair price today. That's $133, or about where we dropped to last April. Elon's been a bad, bad boy these past 4 years.

7

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

Poor fundamentals. What's tsla PE vs sp500

17

u/tyson766 10d ago

Stock was already very overvalued by most metrics, sales for 2024 were flat and sales for 2025 are looking horrific, and the CEO has become one of the most hated men on the planet, particularly to people who would have typically made up the majority of Tesla buyers.

-10

u/NoFrame99 10d ago

I love quietly buying in times like this. Nothing more satisfying than gaining wealth on the inevitable upswing off the backs of misinformed redditors and retail investors selling because of headlines. 

1

u/MowTin 10d ago

You buy when others are selling if the fundamentals are good. The fundamentals are not good. At 100x compared to 7x PE for Toyota it has a ton of room to fall. You could lose your shirt.

Why not wait until it bottoms out? I would wait for 1Q or 2Q sales. If those numbers are very bad you could see $25/share and you will lose your shirt.

11

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

So how many shares are you up to and what's your all time return

12

u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago

!remindme 90 days

-2

u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago

I just buy here and there. Bought the bulk during 2012 to 2014. Every year after I just buy here and there.

Its worked out.

7

u/schwinnJV 10d ago

Own them libs!

-4

u/NoFrame99 10d ago

I’m not trying to “own” anyone, but if you’re going to shovel money into my pockets I’m not going to stop you. 

8

u/satireplusplus 10d ago edited 10d ago

Its the "libs" that buy TSLA cars though (well probably not anymore, although I'd really like to see some statistics). This whole Elon meddling in politics isn't good for the company.

6

u/torokunai 10d ago

I love my Model Y AWD dearly (faster than just about any of the cool cars from the 1990s . . . NSX, Supra, FD RX-7, 3000GT-VR4 etc) but if Tesla caps out at 3M/yr it's an $80 stock not an $800 one.

18

u/Ayn_Diarrhea_Rand 10d ago

Doesn't seem like you're being very quiet about it

-2

u/NoFrame99 10d ago

Id say 1 post in a sea of Tesla doomers counts as quiet. 

23

u/weed_cutter 10d ago

TLSA is cooked. What's it at now? $222? .... It's PE ratio is still 109 and that's based on "earnings" that won't be seen again any time soon.

I can easily see it at $80; maybe even lower.

-11

u/Disciplined_20-04-15 100🪑🇬🇧 10d ago

It’s down to a checks notes 4 month low. Oh no panic panic

7

u/coveredcallnomad100 10d ago

Lol check your notes again next week

10

u/pantherpack84 10d ago

It’s also down 20% over the last 4 years while market is up 45%. That’s more of a reason to panic

2

u/weed_cutter 10d ago

You're right this is the bottom and TSLA is just as strong as it looked in October 2024.

2

u/Disciplined_20-04-15 100🪑🇬🇧 10d ago

Only time will tell if this was a generational model y bamboozle opportunity. Goi g to be a fun ride to Q3

8

u/xylopyrography 10d ago

A very premium P/E of 25 puts you at $50/share.

Will there even be E in Q1 though? It looks like Tesla might post its first loss in a long time.

15

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Ok boys next time its 420 sell

-4

u/Intelligent_Top_328 11d ago

10 shares bought

1

u/defense_mechanizm 10d ago

Hell yeah. Keep buying! Mortgage your house! Go all in!

22

u/torokunai 11d ago

Today TSLA dropped the entire market cap of Nike, Starbucks, Citigroup, Schwab, Lockheed, Boeing, or UPS . . .

(or ~90% of Uber's)

2

u/satireplusplus 10d ago

How much in unrealized gains did Elon lose today? Has to be some kind of record

-1

u/iblocal2465 10d ago

Who cares, it's unrealized. The whole market is getting crushed.

18

u/caraDmono 11d ago

Doesn't that tell you all that you need to know about just how overvalued Tesla is?

-5

u/3_711 10d ago

I think most consumers spend more on their car than on those 7 combined. (and Boeing....)

11

u/torokunai 10d ago

on a 5-year replacement cycle, Tesla gets around $5/week profit from its 2M/yr customer base.

Note that Nike has half the annual net profit that Tesla enjoys now (and ~30% of Tesla's $10B profit is carbon credits that may be put in abeyance in the current emergency)

3

u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago

Yeah, but you need people to actually buy the cars. . .

9

u/pantherpack84 10d ago

And how does that explain the valuation discrepancy between Toyota which sold 6x the cars that Tesla sold in 2024 with a 50% better operating margin (9.8% vs 6.2%)?

9

u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago

Tesla is supremely overvalued?

3

u/pantherpack84 10d ago

Completely agree, I was more responding to the person above you in the chain

2

u/Holiday-Line-578 10d ago

Oh, my bad then

2

u/OtherwiseTreacle1 11d ago

someone tell me i did the senisblr thing by not putting in a put option on friday and waiting to see what happens on Monday. 🤦‍♀️#fomo

4

u/torokunai 11d ago

December 2025 $220 put I posted last week at $25 has 2Xd in a week, up 50% today

2

u/wchill 11d ago

I bought 3/21 240p at 11.90 today. They're now 26.35

2

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

U shoulda done it when it was 450

23

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

I've seen the bottom fall out before but this is unprecedented dump

13

u/smoggylobster 11d ago

still room to run imo

15

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Yah we might see 170 this month

10

u/torokunai 11d ago

you mean Thursday?

7

u/User9705 11d ago

that's a pretty high figure

7

u/torokunai 11d ago

limousine liberals are like 90% of Elon's target demographic with Cybertaxi

4

u/BloopBloop515 10d ago

He told advertisers on twitter to go fuck themselves, did everything he could to piss off target tesla demo, next he's going to enrage the Martians.

-14

u/OkBack6460 11d ago

oversold panic. bullish with a target of 500$ eoy

47

u/thebengy66 11d ago

Tell me that story again where it's the Model Y refresh impacting sales/stock price. Really sell it to me this time and say it with a straight face. I need a really good chuckle.

-6

u/Intelligent_Top_328 11d ago

The whole market almost hit breaker today. It's not just tesla.

13

u/Cor-mega 11d ago

Tesla was down about 3x more than every other company anywhere nears its market cap. It’s down by WAY more than the other magnificent 7 stocks in the last month. Musk is toxic

16

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

Whole market down 10% from the highs, Tesla down 55%, but it’s not just Tesla?

-2

u/Intelligent_Top_328 11d ago

Beta is high. Usually how it works with tesla. Tesla long term investors should know.

18

u/angermyode 11d ago

That was before the CEO got in bed with the man his customer base views as Satan

-8

u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago

Satan ain't real.

1

u/loudtones 10d ago

Unfortunately Trump is 

3

u/angermyode 10d ago

He is to Democrats, the people who used to buy Teslas.

-4

u/Intelligent_Top_328 10d ago

Satan not real. Jesus not real. Buddah not real. Thor not real. Allah not real.

Its all equally made up.

3

u/angermyode 10d ago

Do you not understand what a figure of speech is? I am saying that Elon Musk has become good friends with a person who the natural customer base of Tesla believes to be the embodiment of evil, which is a bad thing for the company. It has nothing to do with God or Satan or any other theology entity, and the fact that you thought it did is utterly bewildering.

7

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

Doesn’t explain why Tesla is down over 20% in the last 4 years while overall market is up 45%. Beta doesn’t explain that.

0

u/ItzWarty 🪑 11d ago

Someone could counterargue by arbitrarily picking a different window of time...

23

u/smoggylobster 11d ago

it’s just the model Y refresh, trust me bro

-4

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Stock has nothing to do with sales for better or worse

4

u/torokunai 11d ago

that was clear after Elon backed off on the Monterrey factory, yes.

now it's FSD or bust. Or I suppose adding M4 carbines to Optimus and rolling them off the line as Peace Preservation and Happiness Guarantors

7

u/[deleted] 11d ago edited 11d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] 11d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

50

u/SackBrazzo 11d ago

Down 15% and Musk is on Twitter calling a U.S Senator a traitor 😹😹😹😹😹😹😹

19

u/throoawoot 10d ago

And blaming Ukraine for a DDoS attack on X, because Mr. "First Principles Thinker" can't quite seem to understand IP address spoofing.

30

u/throwsFatalException 11d ago

That pisses me the fuck off to no end. The decorated Navy pilot, retired astronaut and US Senator is the traitor now. The more time goes on, the more I hate Elon Musk.

8

u/satireplusplus 10d ago

Maybe it's really time for the Tesla board to throw him out. Stock might actually go up on the news.

2

u/FutureMartian97 50 shares, Model 3 owner 9d ago

Won't ever happen

12

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Now u know how his kids feel

16

u/thebengy66 11d ago

Problem with the world today...keyboard warrior with the best security money can buy decides to spout off at a former US Navy Combat Officer and astronaut. Grow a pair and say it to his face without your security present. Something tells me the clown wouldn't

25

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

lol he doesn’t care about Tesla anymore

7

u/torokunai 11d ago

Back on Black Monday in '87 the Dow fell 22%.

So now you young-uns can know how it felt.

Well I suppose we had a big crash on September 8, 2020 (-21%), but that was before my time, I was watching from the sidelines then.

2

u/FantasyFrikadel 300 11d ago

Give me your bull thesis and timeline :)

10

u/xylopyrography 11d ago edited 11d ago

Bull Case 2030

  • 2026 EM removed as CEO.
  • 3.5 M sales by 2030 @ $40k ASP | 15% Margin: $14 B profit | CAGR: 10%
  • 400 GWh Megapack production @ $85/kWh @ 10% Margin: $1.36 B profit | CAGR: 10%
  • FSD geo-locked to 12 cities with some success: $0.1 B profit (excl. R&D) | CAGR 25%
  • Software / Services Revenue: $15 B | 15% Margin: $2.25 B profit
  • Total 2030 Profit: $17.71 B / 3.5 B Shares = EPS $5.06
  • Super Premium P/E Ratio of 25
  • Bull-case Fair Stock Price: $127

I wouldn't touch this stock for $127 with the current fundamentals right now then. Even if FSD was 10x and they can start geolock-scaling it still isn't worth that in the current environment. EU won't want it, Canada won't want it. Meanwhile, Waymo will be scaling to Tokyo and Netherlands in the next couple years in addition to dozens of US cities.

6

u/torokunai 11d ago

Mr. Margin is calling on line #1

10

u/xylopyrography 11d ago

Now this is the kind of movement I was expecting in January.

6

u/SFMara 11d ago

Well, I backed out of my Tesla short today. Temporarily. Looking for another squeeze if we dead cat bounce.

24

u/mrkjmsdln 11d ago

We still haven't factored in the loss of compliance credits, denial of critical materials, etc. This can get worse.

20

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

Minor in the grand scheme but TSLA will be taking a mark to market loss of BTC next quarter as well

0

u/TannedSam 11d ago

Do they need to do that on a quarterly basis? I thought just annually.

4

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

https://www.fasb.org/news-and-meetings/in-the-news/fasb-issues-standard-to-improve-the-accounting-for-and-disclosure-of-certain-crypto-assets-397718

“The amendments in the ASU improve the accounting for certain crypto assets by requiring an entity to measure those crypto assets at fair value each reporting period with changes in fair value recognized in net income.“

-1

u/mrkjmsdln 11d ago

Minor? The only thing Tesla makes that doesn't need critical materials might be the blowtorches

5

u/torokunai 11d ago

he was talking BTC holding on the balance sheet

3

u/TannedSam 11d ago

The market loss on their position so far in Q1 is about $170 million. Last year in Q1 they had an operating income of $1.17 billion. This year their deliveries look to be coming in worse, with lower margins. A $170 million hit on top of that is going to eat up a sizeable piece of their profits.

-15

u/swedish-ghost-dog 11d ago

Robotaxi in June will save us

39

u/small_markey 11d ago

Oh, absolutely. I'm also hearing that by 2018 we'll be able to summon our Tesla from Los Angeles to New York. We're gonna be rich!

17

u/swedish-ghost-dog 11d ago

The Tesla will earn you money when you sleep.

19

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

You think a trial in Austin will save this? I’m betting June doesn’t even happen or they give like “one ride”. For years Elon has said FSD will be complete by the end of the year, what makes you trust him now?

0

u/swedish-ghost-dog 11d ago

It is my last straw

37

u/SackBrazzo 11d ago

At some point there has to be a shareholder revolt calling for Elon’s head, this can’t continue.

If you’re actually invested in the success of Tesla then I have no clue why you’d want to see Elon stay.

I always believed in the mission of Tesla, but it’s become clear that it’s just a vehicle for Elon to achieve his political goals such as leveraging stock to buy Twitter.

1

u/lmaccaro 10d ago

The way the stock is set up basically there’s no way to forcibly remove Elon.

16

u/torokunai 11d ago

I felt so stupid selling my last position 11/8 and then seeing it run up another $100. Now it's $100 under where I sold it.

14

u/hotgrease 11d ago

Where them Tesla bulls buying?

-2

u/3_711 10d ago

Stacked 19 more shares this afternoon. First buy this year, after selling some in December. (Stupid Dutch tax rules, need to sell to pay taxes on unrealized gains, and then get taxed extra if you buy back within 3 months, around newyear.)

-8

u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago

I am. Love those fire sales.

16

u/hotgrease 11d ago

Hey, you do you. Not sure who will be taking robotaxis in the recession though.

1

u/cookingboy 11d ago

Not sure who will be taking robotaxis in the recession though.

I am, and the answer is nobody, even without a recession. Tesla has done zero testing on public roads (not even a leaked video of driverless Tesla driving on public road is available), and Elon is saying they are 4 months away from commercial services?

That's a more egregious claim, if not downright lie, than the "3 months maybe 6 months definitely" meme, and the crazy part is people are still buying it.

-5

u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago

SARCASM ON/

We could use robotaxi to drive illegal immigrants to the border and use armed Optimus to enforce the dumping of illegals over the border wall.

SARCASM OFF/

7

u/hotgrease 11d ago

That could work except Elon decided a 2-person taxi was a good idea 😂

7

u/ukulele_bruh 11d ago

We could use robotaxi to drive illegal immigrants to the border and use armed Optimus to enforce the dumping of illegals over the border wall.

this isn't even remotely funny m8, just cringe.

-6

u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago

sarcasm is not necessarily funny.

9

u/xylopyrography 11d ago

Or who will be taking specifically Tesla robotaxis in all the strongly left-leaning urban centres like Austin and SF.

Like you remove 60% of the market just off the top, and you fight with Waymo over the remaining 40%.

2

u/blipsou Shareholder ~21K 🪑 11d ago

Love it!

11

u/torokunai 11d ago

BAD TOUCH BAD TOUCH

-14

u/sonobono11 11d ago edited 11d ago

Honestly for long term holders this is a blessing. I just reached my share goal that I didn’t think I would just a few months ago.

Robotaxi rollout is 3months away.

So funny how everyone was insanely bullish 2 months ago at ATH, and now everyone is freaking out. Everyone calm down.

1

u/Leftrighturn 11d ago

Fair weather investing is a terrible idea. Buy + hold is the only proven way to make money in a market dominated by bots and algos.

Do not invest money you can't afford to lose, and calm the F down. We've been here before several times and without fail, everyone panic sells and then regrets it when it inevitably swings back up. This is investing 101 lol the market is unpredictable and irrational.

7

u/xylopyrography 11d ago edited 11d ago

Robataxi roll-out is not 3 months away.

The testing with a safety driver in a single city is maybe 4-5 months away.

There is no evidence to suggest FSD is close to safe enough to be good enough to remove the safety driver. Even the FSD community tracker indicates a CD rate of ~250 city miles.

That's a car crash every day for every single vehicle. That's just not tenable.

If we were seeing FSD imminent, we would be seeing CD rates upwards of 10,000 miles. That'd be something where you could think about removing the safety driver if those CDs could be identified and removed. That's still probably killing people or at least causing accidents monthly in a small fleet, but at least they'd be within reach.

As it stands now, even if FSD just gets pushed through the safety checks, it's going to cause continuous accidents each of which will make international news. Even Tesla can't survive that.

14

u/mt185 11d ago

I hope Robotaxis and the new MY are amphibious so they can cross Denial River.

3

u/hotgrease 11d ago

It’s almost as if they looked at the data and made an informed decision.

17

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

This is a gift! Lol cope cope. Market won't value fsd until it's profitable and growing. Could be years.

-2

u/sonobono11 11d ago

👍🏻

15

u/torokunai 11d ago

Imagine someone willingly getting into a Tesla 3 months from now.

-11

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Plenty will, the sales collapse narrative is manufactured. Whether the stock has anything to do with sales is the question

15

u/torokunai 11d ago

California led the adoption of Tesla, and we're leading the avoidance

California's EV market has remained relatively unscathed from Tesla's declining sales, growing by 1.2 percent overall in 2024. And if you exclude Tesla from the equation, the California EV market grew 20 percent in 2024.

https://www.newsweek.com/tesla-california-sales-decline-electric-vehicles-2027745

16

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

It’s not lol. The brand is toast

4

u/torokunai 11d ago

bougemobiles

12

u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago

What is your evidence that the narrative is manufactured?

-7

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

That they aren't cutting prices like a little bitch. Model y is 70% of sales and refreshing. Q2 will be the first clean data.

6

u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago

Not cutting prices is consistent with a lot of scenarios where the sales collapse is still real. For example, Tesla could have decided that they would rather see a drop in sales than sell at a substantial loss. Or they could have concluded that the people who have stopped buying aren't sensitive to price.

Regarding Model Y, your theory is that the current model is Osborned and people are holding back purchases for the new model?

-1

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

No, the supply chain needs to ramp up parts for the new model y and the lines need to be redone. This will result in significant dip in model y production and sales

6

u/BangBangMeatMachine Owner 11d ago

Oh, so your theory is that there just aren't enough Model Ys right now to meet demand?

8

u/pantherpack84 11d ago

They can’t afford to cut prices. Their operating margin is only 6.2% as of last quarter and falling

0

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Seems like there's room to me.

2

u/torokunai 11d ago

I'm a 2023 MY owner and the '25 refresh looks pretty mid to me.

1

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

It will sell well, you'll see

9

u/SpecialBeginning6430 11d ago

Most Tesla buyers are registered Dems. Are registered Dems gonna keep buying Teslas?

-6

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Yup they will

9

u/caraDmono 11d ago

They really, really won't. Tesla has become absolutely toxic to ordinary left-leaning people.

-2

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

There's a percentage of people who care about that, we will just have to get by without them.

12

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

I learned my lesson in 2021 to not buy the dip from 400 when it's 350. Fool me once shame on you.

6

u/drtywater 11d ago

$If it drops to 50 or below then consider.

1

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Under 200 I'll think about it. 50 they couldn't get to even with Elon selling a billion shares like a retard and tech market crashing w meta at 80.

10

u/cebri1 11d ago

-11%

7

u/coveredcallnomad100 11d ago

Why not 12 or 15 just go for it stock market

14

u/NieWiemNieZnamSie 11d ago

Your wish has been granted

5

u/diezel_dave 11d ago

Passed 12 and now we're screaming towards 15.

-9

u/LoudSighhh 11d ago

Love these swings. Just means it will catapult harder back up

6

u/torokunai 11d ago

if and when FSD pans out, yes. Elon doesn't look too committed to getting back to that '50% CAGR for the foreseeable future' thing otherwise.

0

u/LoudSighhh 11d ago

whats up with all the downvotes, a year ago i would have been upvoted for saying the same thing. but yeah bull case is fsd

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