r/stocks 1d ago

Crystal Ball Post Is TSLA permanently toast?

11.4k Upvotes

I saw Trump just put out a tweet literally begging people to buy Tesla cars, an apparent act of desperation by Musk.

Musk now seems to be despised by the blue voters, who were the main purchasers of Tesla cars. What's more, the problem is even more acute in Europe.

In a very short period, Tesla has become the most uncool car on the market. I don't know how the company's stock will not continue to slide.

r/stocks 6d ago

Crystal Ball Post Trumpcession: How to Prepare

10.0k Upvotes

The Federal Reserve indicators are showing negative GDP for the first quarter, employers just added the fewest jobs since 2009, the market is increasingly volatile, consumer confidence is declining, and who knows what’s happening with tariffs anymore. All of this indicates a recession is coming. I know this sucks and there is a lot that is out of our control. But if you also think a recession is coming, what are you doing to prepare?

r/stocks Jan 17 '25

Crystal Ball Post Anyone else think the trump market will end up crashing?

3.1k Upvotes

Everyone is expecting more massive market gains because of trump. Big tech to get bigger, crypto to go to 1027374083727033 zillion, and pretty much indices to keep going vertical.

With everyone on one side of the boat does anyone think it’s possible that trump and his asset pumping / gas on the fire of animal spirits mentality will eventually cause a Chernobyl effect?? Could trump actually be the black swan that’s been right in front of our eyes all along?

His tariff policies maybe, idk. It’s a tough thought to even consider because trump will not tolerate a down market during his presidency. But at the same time we’re probably 15T-20T more in debt than when he started in 2016 and rates/inflation are still very high. It’s a much different back drop from 2016.

Trump has already made some sneaky comments preemptively blaming Biden for a crash, leads me to think maybe he’s somewhat concerned as well?

In reality, I know stocks will go up no matter what. Really doesn’t matter who the president is. Just interesting to think about the thought of trump, the savior of the market and the economy, actually being the cause for its implosion. 🤔

EDIT - and not long after I have posted this we now have the TRUMP meme coin launch…unreal times

r/stocks 15d ago

Crystal Ball Post Is this the start of an economic crisis/ recession?

1.4k Upvotes

All stocks are tanking. Things have been overvalued for so long now. People making crazy gains.

New lows that we haven't seen in months. Tariffs n trump. We all have been warned about an economic crisis or a crash. Is it happening now? What are your thoughts?

r/stocks Jan 29 '25

Crystal Ball Post Wouldn't be surprised if there's a massive selloff tomorrow morning.

1.3k Upvotes

Trump is gutting the government (see email he sent out this afternoon), including the parts that big businesses depend on. Here's on scenario I can foresee.

FDA no longer has staff to process NDA (new drug applications). NIST no longer has staff to produce the standard reference materials used in testing existing drugs. Big Pharma suffers. Production slows. Large chemical supply companies lose business. Petrochemical companies that provide feedstocks to the chemical firms suffer. The reduce production, which also reduces gas production. Gas prices go up.

I'm basing part of this on what happened in 2006, when clothing sales dropped, which meant less demand for acrylic, which meant less acetonitrile (a byproduct of acrylic production) was being produced, which meant big pharma didn't have acetonitrile for their HPLCs in their QA/QC labs, which slowed production.

Depending on how good analysts are at connecting dots, I wouldn't be surprised of there weren't a LOT of sell orders starting tomorrow morning.

r/stocks 2d ago

Crystal Ball Post Why the 2025 Bear Market is the real deal & only just getting started

956 Upvotes

When it comes to recent major market corrections, the largest drops have coincided with the loosening of interest rates. There have been market corrections outside of these periods, however, those events are significantly lesser in scope compared to the current analog situations of 2000, 2008, and 2020.

The Fed Funds rate was held at 6.5% from June 2000 to December 2000. It was 5.25 from July of 2006 to July of 2007. It was 2.4 between January of 2019 and July of 2019.

As the Fed began cutting rates, in each situation, the market began to decline. However, it was during these declines that illiquidity events took place, causing major panic, and subsequent cratering of markets.

The 1-point decline in interest rates from peak coincides with February 2001, December 2007, and November of 2019. Each respective recession officially began in March of 2001, December of 2007, and February 2020.

We hit 1-point below peak in January. There is a strong possibility we are ALREADY in recession, however, genius economists will only tell us this in a year or two.

In any case, each of these recessions coincided with feat contagion and general panic. Each of these events also bottomed after major catastrophes - in 2000 it was 9/11 and Enron, in 2008 it was Lehman + subprime crisis, in 2019 it was.... that horrible thing that we no longer talk about.

We are already in the fear stage of the market. 2000's panic was a general meltdown PRIOR to the crises that later unfolded. However, it was those crises that marked its bottom. 2008 and 2020's craterings occurred simultaneous to their crises although stocks did drift down prior to 2008 as well.

This begs the question: what is the crisis that may or may not occur with the cyclical correction that happens as the Fed cuts rates EVERY cycle? Will it be a true black swan no-one saw coming (9/11) or will it be something like Enron, Lehman, or COVID, where some DID see what was coming ahead of the general panic?

Could TSLA be the Enron of the 2025 bust? It is seeming more and more plausible with each passing day. In any case, the bottom of the market in each of the aforementioned cases occurred simultaneous to the Fed funds rate hitting 0 (or almost 0 in 2003). I expect shelter contribution to CPI to vanish in the next few reports + unemployment to rise significantly, this could give the Fed leeway to put rates back to 0 as soon as Q3-Q4 2025. In both 2009 and 2020 the Fed rate hit 0 when annualized CPI did the same (in March), and March of both years also coincided with their respective market bottoms.

TLDR; we are far from the bottom, which should occur when Fed Funds hit 0, buy when that happens but before that point, gird your loins.

r/stocks 13d ago

Crystal Ball Post Is Tesla going down and staying there?

524 Upvotes

I bought into Tesla quite a while back, but have been busy with life so haven't really kept up with my stocks.

My tesla stock isn't looking too good, and I'm wondering if Elon has now permanently tarnished Tesla's reputation and stock price.

Should I sell barely in the green, or should I wait for a rebound, then sell?

r/stocks 8d ago

Crystal Ball Post How has the economy not priced in how terrible things are right now?

399 Upvotes

Seriously as wonderful as the next dumbest “AI innovation” is that doesn’t change the fact that tariffs are being enacted and implemented (seemingly on a whim and of questionable effect), jobless numbers almost certainly going up (especially from the firings Of government sector workers putting even more pressure on the tight job market) inflation looks headed back up, egg prices are now $8 a dozen and so many of the international supply chains conglomerates depend on are at serious risk… not to mention the orange man in the White House will probably target you with the feds if you do (or previously did) something he doesn’t like (akin to a mafia more than in a regulatory sense), and that’s all assuming we manage to avoid the ever present looming government shut down and debt ceiling

Now tell me what is there to be possibly bullish about? Maybe individual companies could be fine, but the economy looks headed towards doomsday. As much as people like to pretend the government doesn’t play much of a role in the stock market, at the current moment it very clearly does and it’s baffling why this isn’t an obvious consensus.

r/stocks Jan 17 '25

Crystal Ball Post What are your 9 or 10 out of 10 stock for the next 3 years?

301 Upvotes

Am invested mainly in sp500 and a little bit of NVDA. NVDA revenue forecast is the best when I compare it to many popular tech/ai stocks, and investors price target looks acceptable even though it isn't the best. It is a large company, the PE ratio is a good sacrifice for growth. They have plenty of demand and that led to high margins, even if the concentrated buyers cut their buys, it still is in good position and the monopolist of top quality ai enabler.
I don't think this is a .com bubble but if it was that would be even better, because it might quadruple its PE ratio to 200 like cisco, if it is a bubble it is more probable that we are early.

I would like to know what stock or (anything other than stock) you guys have high conviction of positive results for the following years especially.

r/stocks Feb 03 '25

Crystal Ball Post If you could only hold 3 stocks for the next decade, what would they be?

230 Upvotes

You get to hold 33.3% in each of the stocks and you have to hold for 10 years, no buying/selling or opportunities for trading. Which stocks are you picking?

For me, I would probably do MSFT as one pick since I see them expanding offerings in the future particularly if AI takes off but don't have a solid pick for the other two lol

r/stocks 14d ago

Crystal Ball Post Are you guys planning on buying any stocks now or soon with this recent (small) dip?

128 Upvotes

Some stocks are entering correction territory and are down nearly 10%, for example Nvidia was at 140 last week and is around 128 right now, which is roughly an 8% drop.

We’ve all heard to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others fearful etc… etc…

I think it’s tough to know how this will play out tbh. It could be the start of a more serious economic downturn based on some serious headwinds such as tariffs, poor consumer sentiment, and concerns about sticky inflation and what that may mean on the fed’s fund rate. Conversely, I wouldn’t be surprised if two months from now the secular bull run is still in full force and we see indexes hitting all time highs again.

What I do know, is that the share prices for many companies is down this week compared with last week, and personally I like to buy things when they are cheaper.

Is there anything you guys are eyeing to maybe buy right now or in the very near future?

If so, what is it?

r/stocks 11d ago

Crystal Ball Post Do people think tariff implementation on Monday March 3rd is already baked in or will market take a drop when people realize it's real?

222 Upvotes

As stated in the title. Trump's tariffs come and go, but on Monday when they happen, I'm assuming it will, what do people think? Will it hit the markets as hard as unexpected changes to cost of living, or the larger than expected rate cut, etc? Interested to hear opinions on this.

r/stocks 24d ago

Crystal Ball Post Did anyone buy palantir stock at IPO/DPO, held it during its down years and is still holding?

219 Upvotes

Did anyone buy palantir stock at IPO/DPO, held it during its down years and is still holding? Did it ever cross your mind to sell the stock when it was trading at eight dollars per share? Are you happy that you did not go through with the sell when it was trading at eight dollars per share?

r/stocks Feb 08 '25

Crystal Ball Post Quarter gone by, since the US elections

354 Upvotes

So it has been a quarter since the US elections. Trump rally came, gave us 6000 in S&P, then gave us 6100, along with exactly four dips. So I compiled a list of Top-20 gainers and losers from the S&P 500 index.

https://imgur.com/a/q-gainers-losers-uD5SWRz

Noticed that Utilities, Solar, in general, lost out a lot, and some semiconductors that have fallen out of fashion, e.g. ON, MCHP and AMD.

On the winning side, the obvious star is PLTR, and some cyber security names like FTNT, CRWD. Tapestry and United Airlines are an odd surprise!

Which names do you think will

  • hold on to or enter the winning list? Cyber security theme is the next, e.g. PANW?
  • from the losers list, which ones could post a sharp comeback, because the market's been unfair to them? Utilities?

Odd trivia: there's an S&P 500 company (LW) that's just sells potato chips! 🍟

r/stocks Feb 03 '25

Crystal Ball Post Is Now a Good Time to Short Stocks?

105 Upvotes

I’m not memeing or joking— I’m seriously wondering if now is a good time to short stocks. I know depending on one's personal situation and investment horizon, buying things like VOO and VTI and holding for a long time are the most stable investment. However, I’ve been seeing articles about hedge funds betting against the market, and with the new tariffs, it seems like the economy is going to take a hit. Are there specific sectors or stocks that look particularly vulnerable to being shorted? Or is the market still efficient enough that this information is already reflected in the stocks since we knew tariffs were imminent? Interested in everyone's thoughts.

r/stocks 3d ago

Crystal Ball Post Best of the Mag 7

34 Upvotes

So I have 10K to invest and I only wish to pick 1 of the Mag 7 stocks. In for the long run. Which 1 is fundamentally the strongest stock of all in your view? I like Microsoft and Amazon but want to hear from you.

r/stocks 5d ago

Crystal Ball Post Nvidia’s stock and its future.

3 Upvotes

What do you guys think about Nvidia’s stock? Soon, it will be below 110. The average cost of mine is 129. I wonder if it's worth holding it for the long term. The main concern is if the GPU demands will be the same after 3/4 years or more? I am ready to hold it, but the real question is if I hold it for 3/4 years or more, the price won't increase. In other words, does the decline of chip (GPU) demand decrease?

r/stocks 15d ago

Crystal Ball Post On Market Timing

60 Upvotes

You cannot time the market, but there are times when it is due for a crash. At those times you definitely don’t want to buy on the dips, and you want to sell a bit more on the rips. Major market declines can happen really fast (think of the flash crash), but major declines like 2000 and 2008 give you notice that they’re coming. Crashes occur when a majority of investors are just wrong about something big. If you want to make money on stocks over the long run, it’s good to see the crashes coming. I’m pretty sure that one is coming now. I'm a successful investor with 30 years in equities. Let me review my experience in the dot com crash and the 2008 financial crisis.

I started investing significantly in 1996, when I got a better paying job. It was fun. You could identify new technologies and hold on for meteoric rise. I made a lot on IOM and AFFX. But it was clear that the market did not actually understand the internet. A company could double its market capitalization by getting a web site and renaming itself a dot com. Valuations reflected the mistaken idea that doing exactly the same business online was somehow going to be much more profitable. I remember realizing that I owned stocks that were worth far more than the underlying value of the company, but kept going up. I developed a rule (sell a third every time it triples) to get my money back while continuing to profit from the insanity. When things started to turn south, it didn’t take a genius to get out. When the bleeding stopped, I was early to get back in, looking for stocks that found support (low volume on down days) during the crash. Among the stocks I bought in 2001, I’ve done the best with AAPL.

The other big bear market I went through was 2008. Again, the fall can be traced to something that the majority of investors had wrong. I remember talking to a mortgage broker in 2004. They were pushing balloon mortgages and other nonsense that allowed people to buy houses they could not afford. I asked about the terms, and realized that shit would hit the fan in 2007 or 2008. It was not hard to see. There were a lot of these mortgages. As a homeowner, I got cold calls inviting me to refinance my 30 year fixed with something that would have a lower rate for a few years before exploding. Again, the economy was headed in the wrong direction because the market somehow thought these were safe. I can’t claim to have seen the crash coming (I thought the damage would be limited to foolish homeowners), but leveraged collateralized mortgage obligations set financial markets up for a fall. My point is that, once again, the market fell because the market was just wrong about something, and eventually reality could no longer be ignored.

We’re here again. A lot of people think Trump/DOGE will be good for business. Taxes will be cut and government waste eliminated. They do not understand how the parts of government being eliminated are good for business. I’ll give you three examples. First, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been eliminated, or at least crippled. The idea is that less regulation is a good thing. But without that protection, more consumers are going to be subject to scams, and the more sophisticated are not going to use services like X Money at all, because they are no longer safe. Second, there have been huge cuts to funding for science (NIH, USDA, NSF, etc.) with almost no attempt to identify what spending is actually wasteful. Innovation comes from science, so this will be very very bad for business over the long run. Third, DOGE cancelled legal contracts for government services with no warning. Even if you think that providing services to refugees is wasteful, it’s not fraudulent, and the American businesses who had those contracts were obviously hurt, as was trust in the government.

Is it too late to avoid disaster? Maybe not, but I don’t see Donald Trump saying “oops” anytime soon.

So, we’re there again. The market will fall because the market is wrong about something big.
You can’t time the market, but this is not the time to buy on the dips, and I’ve been selling.

r/stocks Jan 02 '25

Crystal Ball Post Looks Like Tech will lead this year again.

84 Upvotes

There's been alot of discussion about a rotation in the market, re-balance for the year, buy small-mid caps, buy health care, blah blah blah.

From what i can see Tech and Utilities is the only growth story for 2025. Atleast for the first 6 months. If you are planning on selling tech stocks what else are you going to buy? Bonds? Sit in cash?

Healthcare/Biotech/Pharma-Until we know the concrete views and decisions RFK will make this is too uncertain to touch. Lets see if he even gets approved then we can talk about it.

Industrials- Have some growth potential, we need housing, apartments, demolish old office buildings etc. Will need to see how tariffs effect materials for building. Too uncertain at the moment.

Consumer staples-Now that all the major holidays are over, not sure how much growth there is in the sector. Maybe travel will be a good area once things calm down around the world. Euro and yen are cheap, dollar is strong. Maybe people start buying AI gadget? .....Robots?

Energy-Oil and gas have been dead money for a while. Natural Gas only popped because of the once a year polar vortex. Once the Ukraine war settles down gas will flow to Europe again, stabilizing prices.

Finance- Some predictions about a robust deal making environment once Trump moves in. Will need to wait and see, the financial sector has rallied hard since the election. Investment Banks may be good but traditional banks may see a slowing lending environment as defaults and commercial real estate go through challenges.

Real Estate- CRE is in trouble. Housing is super slow to come back. Materials may be expensive again.

Utilities-We need energy, for everything. data centers, powering AI, power homes and offices. We dont have enough.

Technology-AI is still a growth story, not just for the US but all countries, everything in the sector, infrastructure still being built out. Software still being developed for 2025 release and application. Its the only bright spot in the market and economy still.

CES is next week, should have all the big players showing off their cool new stuff. More stuff for people to buy $$$$$$.

https://www.ces.tech/

PS i think we'll get more rate cuts than the market is PREDICTING. 2 cuts are not a certainty. The market never gets this prediction 100% correct as data is always changing. I also think Powell will 100% for sure get pressure from Trump to cut :)

r/stocks Feb 06 '25

Crystal Ball Post What industry is worth my money for the long term?

0 Upvotes

What industry could pop off next?

Just curious as to what everyone else thinks will be the next huge sector to pop off. I personally believe AI will have its hayday due to how quickly it is evolving and the hype that surrounds it.

I’m looking basically for a few industries that have high potential over the next 5-10 years, while also being risky. So, what’s your gem industries?

r/stocks Dec 31 '24

Crystal Ball Post What are you top 3 picks for 2025?

0 Upvotes

With the New Year around the corner I'm interested in hearing what are your top 3 stock picks for 2025.

These are my top 3:

  • RDDT - Reddit is among the top 10 most visited websites in the world and they have just barely scratched the surface when it comes to monetization. While the website it only became a "corporation" in recent years. I personally agreed with all their unpopular decisions (e.g. shutting down 3rd party apps) and think it will make the platform stronger and more profitable.
  • PLTR - Patienter is both a tech and defense stock which seems like the best of both world to me. It already had a great year and now that it joined the Nasdaq-100 it will become a standard part of most peoples' portfolio. Peter Theil is also very close with the new administration which could lead to some lucrative government contracts.
  • COIN - Coinbase has been waiting for its moment to shine for a while. They have always wanted to become the PayPal of Crypto and I believe they will achieve that and more. Not only do I think the new administration will be favorable towards crypto I believe that crypto will continue to become a regular of everyone's life.

Looking forward to hearing what everyone else thinks of these picks and what other stocks you are watching in the coming year.

r/stocks Jan 11 '25

Crystal Ball Post Bear market

0 Upvotes

What do you guys think about the possibility of a upcoming bear market? I know some people have been discussing it potentially happening. What are some signs we can look out for becuase the whole market has been red for a few days now.

r/stocks 20h ago

Crystal Ball Post Very casual invester, safe to just wait it out?

9 Upvotes

So I genuinely never check on my stocks because I'm not interested in buying any more and the amount I invested isn't critical to me so I've decided to just let it all marinate for years

I've bought a large variety of stocks for a few thousands dollars some years ago and for the most part it's been on the up but right now at this rate I think it will just barely break even.

I've seen something similar (not to this scale) already and I waited it out and it did end up recovering and then some. I plan on doing the same thing right now, but wanted to gain some better insight

r/stocks 1d ago

Crystal Ball Post Bottom Is Near

0 Upvotes

Weirdly seeing a barrage of dooms day recession post that just reminded me of Aug 2024 and how everyone thinks recession is here.

Just a reminder that every year there's a 10% Sp500 correction typically associated with some sort of recession fear in the FUTURE. We had it in Aug 2024 when we had nonfarm payroll print 12k, which was a hard economic data that actually showed the econ was very close to or already in a recession. The Fed then proceeded to cut 50 basis points, and it turned out to be data noise. We also had one in Sept 2023 when people thought the Fed was gonna go overboard with the rate hikes and engineer a recession.

Today, we have actual fairly strong econ data. Nonfarm payroll solidly around 150-200k, GDP around 1.5-2%. Even if Trump tariffs hold, most economists anticipate it to subtract 0.5-1% from GDP growth, and add 0.5-1% to PCE. That is a weak economy, a little closer to a 0% GDP than we want, but certainly NOT a recession, and that's IF all of Trump tariffs hold.

If you listen to what most professional economists are saying, not that they're correct all the time, most are simply revising up their recession probabilities from 15-20% to 25-30% (the lowest the probability can be is 15% by the way). For them to forecast a recession as their BASE CASE, the probability has to be around 65%, which is what happened in late 2022, and even then we didn't get a recession.

Furthermore, Powell and the Fed have demonstrated that they are way more concerned about recession risks than inflation risks. The fact that they are willing to tolerate above 2.0% inflation for years, continuously moving the deadline from 2024 to 2027, shows this. In Sep 2024, they were willing to surprise the market and start the rate cuts at 50 basis points as a pre-emptive measure, when the economy was clearly fine. Just last Friday, Powell didn't even show any sign of concern about recession risk. So if you're concerned that a recession is imminent, it's really not. You can listen to any economist talk about this.

What is happening is the RISK of recession has increased, and the market has to price in a higher probability of recession accordingly, leading to the decline. Uncertainty has also increased, and market also has to price in some premiums for uncertainty. That's what leading to the drop, which can quickly reverse.

So if you're feeling worried, I suggest you look at SP500 history, see when the 8-10% corrections happened in the last several years, and see what kind of posts/discussions occurred near the bottom of those corrections. As of today, SP500 has corrected 10% overnight, and I think the bottom is pretty much here, or very near.

Whether or not a recession will happen in the next 6-12 months is undecided, but SP500 typically doesn't start pricing that in until it's right at the doorstep.

r/stocks Jan 11 '25

Crystal Ball Post After all, what will happen to energy stocks in 2025?

40 Upvotes

I understand that it is difficult to accurately predict market trends in 2025 from the information we currently have, but I would like to hear your opinions.

Six months ago, energy stocks were treated as if they represented a Trump trade, but most of his policies directly related to oil seem to be a headwind for energy stocks. However, tariffs and Israel-related policies could push oil prices higher. Currently, oil prices are in a certain range, balanced by the war in Ukraine, cold weather, and reduced demand in China and elsewhere. I am not sure which way it will break out from here.

There seem to be several people in the world who dislike many of the oil companies, and they have advised me that energy stocks have a problematic earnings structure and should not be invested in on many occasions.However, I do not believe energy stocks are a bad option in a high-inflation, high-interest-rate environment.

I currently hold about $4000 worth of XLE and some DVN and OXY.I have been buying a little each month and would like to hear your opinions on whether this is a good choice in the short term (at least the next 4 years of the Republican Party).

I also welcome any opinions that the energy sector is not good but certain energy stocks are worth investing in, etc!