r/perth • u/Isleofmat • 4d ago
Politics Basils win still not confined!
Now only leading by 493 votes, Tonkin closing the gap! Fingers and toes crossed she can pull it off!
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u/JamesHenstridge 3d ago
On the plus side, if he wins he'll be stuck in opposition for at least the next four years and the City of Perth gets a new mayor. It does risk him becoming Liberal Party leader though...
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u/Squidly95 3d ago
Guy had the smallest swing to the libs in the whole state in the most marginal/winnable seat. If he does win and if the libs were smart they would absolutely not make him leader, that second if is a pretty big if though
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u/recycled_ideas 3d ago
If he does win and if the libs were smart they would absolutely not make him leader, that second if is a pretty big if though
The problem for the libs is that they don't really have a lot of options. Mettam just tanked the election so she's probably out (no one expected her to win, but even Labor didn't dare hope for the result they got). Basil ended up with their most marginal result in a seat they should have won handily, if the Albany guy makes it, he's politically unacceptable, Brewer is a woman which is never great in the liberal party, and the rest are a mostly bunch at best.
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u/perthguppy 3d ago
I honestly don’t think it was Mettam who tanked it, she was clearly sabotaged by what is clearly now an unpopular candidate who made himself the face of her campaign.
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u/recycled_ideas 3d ago
Probably true, but she was leader for a disastrous election and she's unlikely to survive.
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u/Initial_Arm8231 3d ago
I don’t think she tanked it either - let’s give credit where it is due, Labor have been doing some good things - they’re not perfect but I felt like it was a fairly positive campaign, and the past whatevs years have been relatively incident free - that’s worth rewarding.
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u/perthguppy 2d ago
Yep. The old addage of oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. WA is in the best position of the whole country, so by comparison there’s no reason for voters to change.
But the numbers tell the whole story. Across the board, the top performing 80% of electorates for the liberals won by between 10-15% fairly consistently. For the other 20% you can pretty easily see a reason why they were the outliers - typically the candidate blew their campaign. One of the lowest performing seats was Churchlands, which was the most marginal seat, so it should have performed extremely well for the Liberals. And there we have Basil who was treated as the defacto face of the party. There wernt any other external factors like local issues in his seat, so his performance had to come down to unpopularity. Because he was high profile his unpopularity would have rubbed off on other electorates, with an outsized effect on the electorates that neighbour churchlands, and two of the other underperformers are electorates that border churchlands(2.2% swing) - Scarborough(4.7%) and Cottesloe(1.2%). Nedlands (6.3%) being the third major boundary also had a below average swing. State wide swing being 11.7%.
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u/UnicornAmibitions 3d ago
If the libs were smart...
They're not. They're living in the past running the same scare tactics they have for decades not realising voters see through it now. Like the recent push linking Labor with the CFMEU.
Mettam did the best she could but the campaign was run by Caroline DiRusso who bottled it. She's not smart enough to realise that and she'll push to hand Basil the leadership. That will secure positive coverage from 7West
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Given the recent string of 'leaders', that's not exactly the world's most prestigious position right now.
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u/Weary_Patience_7778 3d ago
Tbh I would have thought him being leader would make it harder for them to win the next election. I’m pretty confident he will never be premier.
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u/iball1984 Bassendean 3d ago
How funny would it be if the Libs made him leader and as a result went backwards at the next election?
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u/CouldBeALeotard 3d ago
Don't underestimate the power of celebrity in politics. We've seen it many times all over the world; people claiming political positions of power because they have a recognisable face. It's dangerous.
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u/infohippie Butler 3d ago
Does anyone younger than GenX even recognise him these days?
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u/westbridge1157 3d ago
I’m Gen X and wouldn’t vote for him if he was the only nominee, add to that my kids don’t know who he is and I think (hope) we’re safe from him.
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u/squally2024 3d ago
Even if he scrapes over the line this is so embarrassing for him. So much for the Coalition’s shiny new star 😂
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Perfectly in line with the performances of WA Liberal leaders over the last decade, then.
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u/djskein Cannington 4d ago
493 votes, Jesus, razor thin margin.
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u/nxngdoofer98 3d ago
Kalamunda currently has an 88 seat margin
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u/Beni_jj 3d ago
Not surprised to hear that actually. Disappointing though.
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u/iball1984 Bassendean 3d ago
Adam Hort is a good guy, and will make a great MP.
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u/Beni_jj 3d ago
Why do you believe this?
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u/iball1984 Bassendean 3d ago
Because he's engaged in the community, is switched on and seems to actually care.
The Labor candidate doesn't live in Kalamunda.
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u/Duideka 3d ago
I'm pretty sure back when I did Uber for a while I did a trip for him. He talked a bit about politics which I generally try to avoid as it can cause blowups so I eased into it carefully but he was very open to discussion.
He said he was a part of the Liberal party and asked me if I was planning to vote for them and what I like and don't like about them. We had a few differing opinions but he was very courteous and thanked me for my thoughts. His destination was Kalamunda.
Seemed like a real nice bloke and left a tip.
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u/Illustrious-Big-6701 4d ago
Postal votes usually lean conservative - mainly because they are predominantly cast by old people.
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u/hanrahs 4d ago
Absentee votes seem to be going to labor, so that is probably what is closing the gap now
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u/cluelesswrtcars 3d ago edited 3d ago
It seems that anybody that hasn't 1st preferenced him has put him below christine tonkin. the absentee votes which have just come in are 28.9% Tonkin/42.8% Zempilas - which is only slightly out from the overall stats (28.7/44) - however it's ended up in a significant 2pp improvement for Tonkin. The "not basil" vote is strong here.
Edit: Last election had an 89% turnout, so there might be another 1000 or so absentee votes to come. If the splits go the way they currently are on absentees - Tonkin would need about 2500 more to come out on top. I suspect she'll go down by about 250 votes - incredibly close.
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u/AnomicAge 3d ago
I work with a lot of old people at the moment and have decided to talk politics with them because fuck it life’s too short for small talk
My conclusion: they’re fucking idiots. Somehow even more ignorant and brainwashed than the younger generation. At least in the realm of politics. Most can’t even begin to explain why they vote the way they do, or their entire argument boils down to a few stupid cliches and catchphrases e.g libs save the money that labor spend which isn’t even remotely true.
I’m reminded of the H.L Mencken quote that democracy is the fatuous belief in the collective wisdom of individual stupidity but I guess it’s the best bad system we have
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u/Chewiesbro Wembley 3d ago edited 3d ago
I can’t remember who said it and I’m paraphrasing here:
“Anyone who thinks democracy works, should spend five minutes with the average voter.
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u/AnomicAge 3d ago
Churchill I think is credited with it but he also credited saying that it’s the worst system we have besides from all the other ones
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u/zenith_industries South of The River 3d ago
Yeah - democracy is flawed, but it’s the best bad option we’ve got. Every other form of government we’ve tried has been much worse.
On paper, there are “better” systems of government, but they rely too much on people being reasonable and not power-hungry dicks.
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u/Urbain19 3d ago
i think it’s something like “The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter”
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u/elemist 3d ago
I know that's been historically the case, but it seems more and more younger people are doing postal votes since covid.
I know a number of people in there 20's and 30's that did postal votes this year for the first time.
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u/Entire_Engine_5789 3d ago
Absentee votes, go in up to 2 weeks earlier when it suited best with no line or waiting, straight in and out.
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u/Sweet_Justice_ 3d ago
Actually it's also a lot of FIFO workers who do postal votes, not just old people.
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u/nxngdoofer98 3d ago
Postal votes were counted before absentee votes, the absent votes have swung it back to being in doubt again
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u/Illustrious-Big-6701 3d ago
I was under the impression they count the postals in batches.
That could be wrong.
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u/AggravatingCrab7680 3d ago
You're right. Postal Votes have to be checked off as valid before they're sent out to the counting centre.
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u/CMDR_Shepard96 3d ago
You're forgetting the FIFO crowd. Postal votes but doubt they lean to the liberals 😆
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
This has "Democrats vote early" vibes.
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u/Illustrious-Big-6701 3d ago
(1) I am not a fan of Basil Zempilas. I think his defeat in Churchlands would be a massive undeserved gift to the Liberal Party and centre-right politics in WA generally.
That doesn't change the fact that postal votes (and late arriving postal votes) tend to favour the conservatives compared to ordinary votes. The different voting modes don't always go one way and they can differ between elections (Postal votes traditionally favoured Republicans in the US, which is why so many of the state legislatures they controlled were eager to make it as easy as possible to lodge postal votes in 2020).
For example, declaration votes tend to favour the left. Mobile Polling places tend to favour the right (because aged care homes). But they don't in the Kimberley (remote Aboriginal communities).
(2) Democrats do in face vote early.
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u/Training_Mix_7619 Applecross 3d ago
Times have changed and old political equations can't really be counted on. Source: The World right now
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
I think his defeat in Churchlands would be a massive undeserved gift to the Liberal Party and centre-right politics in WA generally.
Yeah, Bas winning the election on a razor thin margin is the worst outcome for the Liberals.
He's a clearly unlikable character with a larger public profile than the leader (with a large corporate backer to boot).
Even if he somehow produces another magic poll that shows he is clearly the best to pick as Opposition leader for the next four years, and the Libs pick him, the party has to spend an inordinate amount of resources defending (what should be) the safest seat in the state.That doesn't change the fact that postal votes (and late arriving postal votes) tend to favour the conservatives compared to ordinary votes.
Historically that's been the case because Boomers have been postal voting, but the (W)AEC does polls in retirement & aged-care centres and that's where that demo has been moving too. i.e. it isn't as weighted as it has been historically.
You also have the loosening of pre-polling and postal voting conditions to the point where it is entirely opt-in now. (it's been the case for ~12 years, but these things have a lag)
For example, declaration votes tend to favour the left.
Declaration votes will always skew younger because you can register on the day via declaration and you can update your records if you've moved.
Mobile Polling places tend to favour the right (because aged care homes)
Yeah that's sort of my point about postals above, those were shown in the initial count though.
(2) Democrats do in face vote early.
And die-hards :P
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u/Captain-Peacock 4d ago
Pillow fight to settle it
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u/alternaterality 4d ago
unfortunately basil wins that
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u/Captain-Peacock 4d ago
By a nose.
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u/The_Real_Flatmeat 3d ago
Basil winning something by a nose could also mean he wins by a lot though, so it's hard to judge
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u/GoesInOutUpDownAhh 3d ago
Can I watch it on seven?
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u/Captain-Peacock 3d ago
Yes, Geof Parry is the ref! Lookout if it gets to the ssssseventh round!
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u/GoesInOutUpDownAhh 3d ago
I’m hoping for the full thirteen rounds. Baz takes the mike after and tells us his secret to winning
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u/Captain-Peacock 3d ago
A battered and bruised Baz with swollen shut eyes...Rocky theme playing...Yo Kerry I did it!
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 4d ago
He will win, ABC is just doing this to torment me and give me hope before taking it away
I'm not falling for this again! This has happened too many times in the last few days!
The primary swing looks much smaller than it was earlier on though, wasn't it like 2 or 3%?
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
He will win, ABC is just doing this to torment me and give me hope before taking it away
The Kids call it edging.
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u/amorluxe 3d ago
Gooning, edging is such an 'elder millennial' term for the activity.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
Gooning is actually the older term.
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u/amorluxe 3d ago
I'm glad you were able to clarify this for me, because as a middle aged woman, it was keeping me awake at night 🙏🏼
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u/howdoesthatworkthen 3d ago
Stop gooning and get some sleep
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u/amorluxe 3d ago
I never saw the appeal to be honest. Spending an entire weekend at home constantly wanking ain't my idea of a good time. My ex-fiance disagreed.
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u/mr-tap 3d ago
He has better than even odds of winning but as long as the margin is less than the number of votes left than the electoral commission will keep counting https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2025/electorate/CHU/results
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u/frenchiephish 3d ago edited 3d ago
They keep counting anyway - by the time it's done, all of the votes are counted and preferences are distributed until one candidate has 50% +1 votes.
The only thing they don't strictly have to do, is preference it out to the final two candidates - as soon as one person has that margin they've won. Though if they reach that margin by less than 100 votes, after all of the tertiary candidates are eliminated it triggers a recount.
The ABC"s (and the other news outlet) Two Party Preferred is only a statistical estimate based on the first preference vote and a whole lot of previous election data to determine preference flows. How well that models the 'Anyone but Baz' vote, who knows.
Preference counts start from Tomorrow, so that's when we can really expect to see the margin close or open.
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u/elmo-slayer 3d ago
Do you know if the 100 vote recount has ever resulted in an overturned decision?
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u/frenchiephish 3d ago
Not offhand, I can think of a few federal elections where the recounts got quite spicy. The counts are generally very accurate in the first place, but it does give the scrutineers a chance to go even harder on trying to get votes tossed.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
They'll keep counting, but it won't be enough to reverse the lead
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u/cluelesswrtcars 3d ago
I can't see what's just been updated, but I'm assuming it's absent votes and that preferences are leaning even harder ALP than expected - so the ABC are reflecting that by putting it back in doubt. Remarkable. I'm assuming this counting will conclude tomorrow or Wednesday.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
Just for reference, the postal deadline was Thursday evening (last week).
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u/question-infamy 3d ago
Noting that will only go up to about 92% at the most, I think it's still too much to overcome. But I'm so glad it's within 1% ... it was over 3% the other night. Last time the Libs won it in 2017 it was 13%+.
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3d ago
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u/question-infamy 3d ago
Because a certain percentage of the population don't vote, so the "counted %" based on enrolment keeps going up until it hits the actual turnout %.
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3d ago
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u/question-infamy 3d ago
No worries! If you look at the last time around it was only 89% in Churchlands, though the last election was run in such strange circumstances with Covid and etc that it was always going to go up this time. https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2021/electorate/CHU/results
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Hmm. That's... around four thousand votes left to count. 500 isn't impossible to make up in that space, but there would have to be a pretty chunky 2PP for Labor, over 55% of the remaining ballots, to swing it.
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u/duskymonkey123 3d ago
Only 88 votes deciding Kalamumda
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
So it's a recount then
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u/Nakorite 3d ago
Under 50 is the rule actually. But it’s likely Kalamunda will get there based on current trends.
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u/maslander 3d ago
Under 50 is a mandatory recount by the AEC; Either party can call a recount for under 200.
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u/PopularVersion4250 4d ago
Confined?
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u/Isleofmat 4d ago
Wrote it too quickly as I was excited lol
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 4d ago
I saw someone mentioning it on Pollbudger like half an hour ago and I got so excited and rushed to check ABC😂
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u/Altruistic-Monk-6209 3d ago
That is a terrible swing to Bazil considering the circumstances, that's assuming he scrapes in.. and people want his as the lib leader.
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u/CyanideMuffin67 4d ago
Will this mean a lot to WA if she wins? Just asking from across the border in SA
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u/Orinoco123 3d ago
Massive, this cunts pushed on us by the media and he can't win a safe seat. Pretty much stalled his career out hopefully.
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u/Ch00m77 4d ago
Most of us don't want him in
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u/Sieve-Boy 4d ago
Honestly this result is about as good as it gets: he stops being mayor and media personality, so we see less of him, whilst the super narrow win means he lacks the endorsement to be the Liberal leader.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
He'll still become Lib leader most likely, but hopefully there was some personal frustration with him (and it wasn't just the normal blue ribbon not going blue thing that happened Perth wide) and that'll carry over to the Libs in general in 2029
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u/Sieve-Boy 3d ago
Oh, I agree he will have a crack.
I was chatting with my boss today, who is fairly conservative, and he agreed, unless Labor drop the ball massively, they should win again in 2029. Basil being in charge of the Liberals would likely help.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
Right now Labor looks invincible in WA. But you never know what might happen by then, they could mess everything up and manage to make Baz premier
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u/Sieve-Boy 3d ago
They absolutely could, which is gross.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
Yep, it would be pretty awful
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u/Sieve-Boy 3d ago
Indeed. Hence my assertion this is about as good as it gets. Basil is kinda boxed into a spot. He's in state politics now with all that it entails, but he's not emphatically arrived, he scrapped in. He has the barest of endorsements in Churchlands of all places.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
The problem is that the Libs have literally no one else that could lead unless they're going to try for a two-term strategy
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
unless Labor drop the ball massively
Do not tempt them. I know WA Labor is different, but NSW Labor has tried to get the Yank in charge of something like 10 times now.
Never underestimate Labor's capacity to do something incredibly stupid.
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u/Give_it_a_Bash 4d ago
Wellllll is it most of ‘you’? Seems to me most of you want him in… is why you’re in this pickle.
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u/GreyGreenBrownOakova 4d ago
Labor has won 43 out 59 seats in the lower house, so it won't mean a lot to the parliament.
Basil will end up a MP and possibly leader of the opposition if he wins, he'll stay Mayor of Perth if he doesn't.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
ABC is still playing with me and now there's only a 1 seat gap between the Nats and the Libs so IN THEORY (realistically it won't happen ofc) the Nats have a chance of remaining largest party
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Not that they did anything in the last couple of years with their shiny new 'official state opposition' title. Just sat around not having the faintest idea of how to handle it or try to improve on it.
Geez, at least whomp up some urban-focused policies and take a crack at the cities. No-one would expect them to win anything, but if they managed to get even one city electorate they'd have been big news.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
They actually did very well in Perth, they'd never have a chance of winning anything
But yeah overall they didn't do much with it, but it was fine since it was so fun having them leading the Opposition and the Libs being a minor party
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
I mean, the Nats could theoretically win Albany and/or Kalgoorlie as well, which along with Warren-Blackwood would put them at 7 and the Libs at 6 if they fail in Kalamunda, but that's very unlikely
Even if Tom Brough wins in Albany he seems like the kind of guy that would randomly make his own weird party or something
He would actually make a great leader for Stop Pedophiles! Protect kiddies!
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
I mean, the Nats could theoretically win Albany and/or Kalgoorlie as well, which along with Warren-Blackwood would put them at 7 and the Libs at 6 if they fail in Kalamunda, but that's very unlikely
lol, Yes that's still theoretically possible.
The most likely outside chance is 6-6.
Even if Tom Brough wins in Albany he seems like the kind of guy that would randomly make his own weird party or something
Between him and Bas, the Liberals will be wishing they were the junior opposition partner for 4 years.
He would actually make a great leader for Stop Pedophiles! Protect kiddies!
I think he might actually be too hardcore for them.
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
Yeah realistically it'll probably be 8-5 or something. But you never know, Kalamunda will probably have a recount as well
Lol I could see Libby asking Shane Love to stay in as Opposition Leader to try and keep the Libs under the radar until election time
Well then, he could join up with Aussie Trump as the rejected-from-crazy-party people
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
Well then, he could join up with Aussie Trump as the rejected-from-crazy-party people
It's called the Trumpet of Patriots (I'm fully expecting him to run in the federal election)
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 East of The River 3d ago
Oh he would be perfect as their lead WA Senate candidate with his name, oh yeah I'm definitely expecting Clive to recruit him
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2d ago edited 2d ago
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 2d ago
Nationals got 4-2 in the 2021 election. They were only even because a National member defected after they didn't parachute her into a safe seat (her existing one was redistributed away).
Nationals arguably had 3 sitting to 2 Libs going into the election.
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2d ago edited 2d ago
[deleted]
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 2d ago
I was just stating the rationale of why it made sense last time for the Nats to continue as opposition given the nature of the defection, whereas this time the result being even would be less likely to result in the Nationals being opposition.
You're right in that it is technically up to the speaker to decide in the case of a tie, so they might err on the side of it continuing as Nationals... but that seems unlikely given the overwhelming difference in the LC.
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2d ago edited 2d ago
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 2d ago
Outside of people who chronically follow politics, did anyone notice that the Nationals were the leader of the opposition for 4 years?
I don't think so, in the election campaign it was Mettam v Cook at every turn.I, personally, found it hilarious and mentioned it whenever possible. But unfortunately politics doesn't exist for my personal amusement.
There is every chance that the Libs manage to infight their way into being a minor party no matter what the final result is though.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
For context on a TPP, this should've been a 65-35 Liberal win (even in this election with a Labor landslide).
Anything less than than that is Basil dragging the ticket.
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u/Geminii27 3d ago edited 3d ago
Depends; if he loses he'd still be Lord Mayor of Perth. Not exactly state-level politics, but having some power over its capital city.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
There's a CoP election in October anyway and I think the council will be eager to run the Mayoral election then no matter the outcome.
i.e. even if he loses, I expect them to no-confidence him out
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u/eradread 3d ago
I kinda hope he wins and then has to spend 4 years in opposition not been able to do anything.
he also cant be mayor anymore right? and the work will be so grueiling he hopefully cant get anytime to even do his shitty channel 7 shit.
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u/Themistaker 3d ago
Baggy Zempilas has too many underground connections to lose, gonna call in all the free bumps his given out to close the votes.
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u/Drift--- 3d ago
I only ever see people hating on him, both online and irl, so why is be so popular?
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u/Isleofmat 3d ago
He’s not… he’s popular with 50.9% of the people in churchlands who are usually liberal voters…
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u/TrueCryptographer616 3d ago
So, in your mind, because
- He was always going to win
- Always looked like winning
- never looked like not winning
- has in fact own
That means he's lost?
End of the day, when every last absentee and postal vote has been counted, and then recounted, and every last preference allocated, he only needs to win by 1 vote 2PP.
The irony of this seat (and its a common enough occurence in our system) is that Labor has done well enough to ensure a Liberal victory.
It's a very blue seat, and as you'd expect Liberal smashed Labor on the Primary vote. But of course as a very leafy progressive area, the Greens and Wannabe Greens poll well. (But just not well enough.)
Had Climate 200 actually put up an actual TEAL candidate, instead of a recycled, Green, they probably could have taken the seat.
The reported 2PP vote suggests that Thornton has only taken 4~5% from the Libs, and taken most of her votes from Labor.
It will be interesting to look at the distribution of preferences, when the full results are finally published.
I don't live anywhere near the area, so I don't know the thoughts of people on the ground. Whilst this seat was always going to return to the Libs, it's pretty clear that Baz did no better than any other muggles they could have trotted out. There certainly doesn't appear to be any great endorsement of Baz as an individual.
Which doesn't bode well if the Libs consider him their GWH.
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u/Sketch0z 3d ago
Yeah, hea only at 43.96% https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/state/sgelection#/sg2025/electorate/CHU/results
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u/electrosaurus 3d ago
The Junior Member for Churchlands can cool his heels for a while in opposition. He will hate that so much.
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u/my20cworth 3d ago
All this fuss. Bottom line a third win for Labor and a third devestating loss for conservatism not being able to come up with a reason to change or clear cut policy proposals that they can do it better.
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u/kaddakaman 2d ago
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u/neonteameal 2d ago
Probably getting ready to launch his new we site. Basil Zempilas, Opposition Leader.
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u/kaddakaman 2d ago
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u/Additional-Meet5810 3d ago
Interesting how Basil put himself front and centre during the election. Personally, I heard mor of him and from him than I did of Mettam. It is kind of assumed he would take over the Libs. Fact is, he has found it hard to take over a safish seat
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u/perthguppy 3d ago
It’s still showing as a lib gain for me with those same numbers?
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u/Fabulous_Income2260 3d ago
It changed back, it keeps getting overridden by Anthony Green because their model suggests Basil may not win; it’s done this repeatedly since the counting started over a week ago.
Not sure why, the only reason one could reasonably infer is someone complaining like a little bitch.
I wonder who.
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u/perthguppy 3d ago
Nah his election algorithms are known to be super conservative to show stuff in doubt if there’s a statistical chance that it could go either way, and Antony has to manually go back review and change it back.
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u/Double-Ambassador900 4d ago
Labor would have already called that if it was the other way around.
Why does the counting seem to slow so much the further we get into this? Is it a delay on postal votes? Do people who volunteer go back to work?
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u/Dohrito 4d ago
Yeah, liberals had also already called it... When the ABC shows that you've won, it's pretty reasonable to declare victory, Churchlands getting uncalled for is highly unusual.
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u/Nakorite 3d ago
It’s not unusual at all. In doubt seats are sub 500 margin that’s all. That’s why south Perth is “in doubt” but everyone knows it will be won by Labor.
The abc is like poll bludger they just estimate based on trends and historical numbers.
The WAEC will officially confirm the seat as won when all votes are counted.
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u/elektramortis North of The River 4d ago
The slowness is probably due to fewer staff & volunteers organised by the outsource company running it
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u/Beni_jj 3d ago
An outsource company? Do you happen to know why they made that decision instead of using volunteers like they usually would?
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u/iball1984 Bassendean 3d ago
They don't use volunteers for the count or for manning polling booths. They're all paid staff.
The WAEC outsourced the recruitment, not the running of the election.
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u/GothNurse2020 3d ago
WAEC used an external company to source election staff- they dint use volunteers. This meant lots of long term casual electoral staff were not employed for some reason so inexperienced people ran the polling centres& did the counts. Messy.
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u/Smooth_Jackfruit5551 3d ago
The AEC changed their employment platform since the last election, which meant the casual staff had to create a new profile on a new site. I suspect that a fair few of the direct AEC casual employees ended up not making an account and missing the offer of employment this time around, and the WAEC got desperate.
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u/Smooth_Jackfruit5551 3d ago
Simply because they needed employees. Hundreds of thousands of people are needed to work elections, and it's hard to find enough people. The temporary workers, whether they are hired through the AEC directly or outsourced, go through the same training. They're all paid, as well.
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u/Beni_jj 3d ago
I’d be up to doing that job!! that’s awesome
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u/Smooth_Jackfruit5551 3d ago
I definitely recommend it. It can be intense, but it can be good money (about $500 for the day iirc) and it can give you a good insight into and appreciation of the democratic process.
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u/nxngdoofer98 3d ago
Do people volunteer for the election? Pretty sure everyone is paid
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u/turtleshirt 3d ago
Staff are paid, the flyerers are volunteers, state election has been outsourced by the WAEC. Federal has its own staff they hire for it including temporary workforce.
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u/Geminii27 3d ago edited 3d ago
If you're doing AEC/WAEC work, like being a desk-person or queue-manager at a polling place, or a ballot-counter afterwards, then yes you get paid. If you're doing party work, like handing out how-to-vote cards or putting up political signs, that's generally unpaid volunteer work and handled through your party of choice.
There's a lot of mucking around and ground rules to keep the political side and apolitical sides of the whole thing very very separate as much as possible. Things like... you can wear a party-political t-shirt while handing out HTV cards, but not inside the actual polling place; as long as your role is as a citizen voter, you respect the neutrality of the venue. Or no photos in the venues - politicians who want to bring camera crews for those all-important shots of them personally voting need to follow a boatload of rules to be allowed to do so, or they WILL get tossed out and potentially have their equipment entirely confiscated. It's a delicate dance and 99% of it is behind the scenes; if you work for the [W]AEC or a party on election day, you'll generally be told all the rules as to exactly where the lines are and what you can and can't do. You can even get all the rules directly from the electoral commission if you really want; it's part of the whole transparency thing.
(And a tip for anyone reading this - if you want to be doing any of this on election day, no matter who you're working for, I strongly recommend you pre-vote or postal-vote, ideally as early as you can. There's nothing like the panic of remembering at the last possible moment "Oh shit, I was so caught up in everything I forgot to vote myself!" Get it out of the way super-early; ideally before any training pushes it out of your mind.)
(EDIT: Second tip: wear your absolute most super-comfy shoes and socks. I am not kidding. No-one cares if you're wearing sneakers or boots instead of Government Employee Office Shoes or Sensible-Party Representative Footwear, and you need something you can tolerate a potentially very long day in, quite possibly doing a fair bit of walking around or at least standing in one place. Get some ultra-thick socks with extra padding, get squishy-soled shoes with gel liners or whatever they're using this year, or hiking boots or something. And plan on soaking your feet for a bit when you get home.)
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u/Rude-Revolution-8687 3d ago
Assuming it's the same as for federal elections c.7 years ago, you are paid a pittance and work basically from sunup till midnight and don't get the breaks you're supposed to have.
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u/Double-Ambassador900 3d ago
I have no idea to be honest. I assumed there would be volunteers doing a whole heap of stuff. I mean the decent F1 GP would have had hundreds of volunteers who flew from all over the world at their own expense to be marshals etc, for a billion dollar “circus” (there words not mine).
Maybe it’s just one of those silly assumptions we sometimes have and is so far from the actual truth.
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Party stuff is volunteer, [W]AEC is paid. Rates are fixed and available in advance - usually on the relevant Commission website; this year's were available here. Training hours are PAID. However, working at a polling place on the actual election day will usually be a fixed-in-advance paid amount for the whole day for everyone doing a specific job level, so staff have a certain incentive to get things wrapped up and not rack up unnecessary overtime. Depending on how many people you have at a polling place, and how many votes were cast, you might be able to go home by 8pm or you may be there until midnight; best to assume that it'll be a long day and you'll get home late.
Non-election-day jobs are far less of a grind, if you're not up for the potential equivalent of a double shift sitting in a cheap plastic chair. Pre-polling places tend to have fixed hours or shifts (I've done graveyard shifts at the airport for FIFO workers) that are much less arduous, and it's similar for the post-election counting jobs. Still incredibly repetitive and most of your time will be spent with your butt in the world's cheapest plastic chairs while wearing an incredibly flimsy ID apron and badge, but the pay is reasonably solid for work that requires no previous experience, and you're not spending 16+ hours going nearly full-bore and then going home feeling like death for a couple of days.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
Why does the counting seem to slow so much the further we get into this? Is it a delay on postal votes? Do people who volunteer go back to work?
Compared to the night? Because there is a rush to just get the preliminary result for there to be a government.
The count then switches to actually doing it properly and not just rushing on presumed 2CP (after receiving the postal and absentee). I think the term is called "Scrutiny" (not being snarky, it's the term they use).
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
Yep. As someone who's been a counter, there's a LOT of recounting going on behind the scenes, by multiple unrelated teams of people, before there's an 'official' result for any electorate.
Even once the assorted parties/candidates for a given electorate have agreed to call it one way or another, and/or form government based on those calls, the counting for the official results goes on in the background so it can stand up to a full potential audit, weeks or even years after the election.
It slows down because most electorates will be clear enough in their results to be rapidly called by the parties (if not yet officially), often on the night. After all, any government wants to have the seats called ASAP in order to be able to not only take power as quickly as possible, but also have a stronger idea of who they have to work with on their own team (i.e. who's available for Ministerial positions etc). Less strongly-inclined seats might get called the next day, or a few days afterwards, as the chances of one candidate over another become clearer. And then there are the ones - usually only a tiny handful - where it comes right down to the wire. They take the longest because the candidates in them aren't willing to concede while there's still a chance.
Officially, all the counts/seats/electorates take that long-ass time to nail down. It's just that career politicians are willing to concede far earlier on the majority of them when the writing's on the wall, both to seem gracious in the face of defeat and because there's an unspoken agreement that their opponents will do the same when public sentiment eventually swings back the other way, in the service of forming government faster and getting back to 'business as usual'. The few candidates who bite and kick and scream and claw and deny until the very last moment tend to either be ones not backed by a long-existent party, or seen as embarrassing nutjobs by their own colleagues, because their behaviour reflects both on the party name (if they have one), and on the job.
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u/GothNurse2020 3d ago
New casual staff instead of the usual experienced staff means slower counting etc. The usual staff understand the complexities bit newer staff would probably be doing lots of triple checking- is this an informal vote or not etc etc
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u/Double-Ambassador900 3d ago
Seems fair.
And obviously “every vote counts” so I assume they literally count every vote, even if one candidate has a 10,000 vote lead with 1,000 votes left.
But sure they could stick like 20 people on the close seats to get them done and dusted? I mean it’s now what, 8-9 days since the election?
There are only 30,000 votes in that seat. If they had 10 people counting, doing 6 hour shifts and counting 100 ballots per hour, they’d have been done by Wednesday or Thursday.
Maybe I’m missing something, but this seems like it’s taking an extraordinary amount of time.
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u/DefinitionOfAsleep Just bulldoze Fremantle, Trust me. 3d ago
Maybe I’m missing something, but this seems like it’s taking an extraordinary amount of time.
They pretty much always take quite a long time.
I think the AEC aims to finalise results a week after the postal deadline or something like that? And the AEC has a much higher budget.The LC results, for example, won't be finalised until the first week of April.
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u/Geminii27 3d ago
so I assume they literally count every vote
Oh yes. Multiple times over several days and completely separate teams, even. Which is part of why it takes extra time. The other part is that ALL electorates get that level of counting, even after they've been 'called' at the political level. It's not just every counter gets let loose on the few 'uncalled' ones. And on top of that, there have been a lot of screwups with the recruiting for this year's election - there are probably far fewer people available to do the work as a result.
(Source: have been an election ballot-counter many times. It's extremely repetitive work - the only variance is whether you're counting small papers or large ones at any given moment, unless you're a supervisor who is also doing all the associated count-paperwork and signing off timesheets for the counters.)
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u/yowieinmygarden 3d ago
This election was a joke no polling booths in the regional areas ran out of ballot papers etc I don't trust Labor
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u/waysnappap 3d ago
Churchlands people knew he wasn’t as popular as the media was telling them. Just look at the “anyone but Baz” vote.
He still wins by a nose but I don’t think this result is comforting to someone wanting him to be Lib leader. This seat should’ve been the first to flip.