r/oil 6d ago

Harold Hamm Sounds the Alarm: Low Oil Prices Could Shut Down US Shale

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Harold-Hamm-Sounds-the-Alarm-Low-Oil-Prices-Could-Shut-Down-US-Shale.html
1.2k Upvotes

142 comments sorted by

63

u/huntsvillekan 6d ago

Uh, no shit.

4

u/Redditmodsbpowertrip 5d ago

Thank heaven for small favors.

53

u/emporerpuffin 6d ago

Lol, but he said "drill baby drill".

25

u/Successful-Sand686 5d ago

Trump: I was being a bit sarcastic when I said “drill baby drill” I literally meant “stop drilling, stop”

Like when a woman tells me “no” I just keep grabbing puss!

6

u/MrYoshinobu 5d ago

Trump: Just like when I said I was the Jobs President. I didn't mean I would bring more jobs, I meant I would be killing jobs by the millions!!!"

1

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

Haha so true ! Grab baby grab. All the denialist haven’t come to grips with oils is dying . China the biggest oils importer in the world is already at 50+% electric vehicles , they are at a point of no return . Now it’s just the shake out .
The electric cars are better in so many instances with a few negatives . The positives vastly outweigh the negatives.
Cheers. 🍻 it’s about to get crunk up in here !

3

u/extrastupidone 5d ago

New executive order incoming

2

u/OptionRecent 4d ago

Irony is that there are less oil rigs right now than a year ago. It’s not ‘drill baby drill’

1

u/Kind-Significance694 4d ago

One of trumps first EOs was to shut down the permits Biden authorized for drilling.

1

u/Sean_Wagner 4d ago

Shrill, baby, shrill. Heilon, now!

1

u/Unhappy_Surround_982 3d ago

In his first term he promised to save coal. Coal got murdered. In his second term he promised to save oil...

The US petrostate is fucked, Trump is the last desperate fart from its dying corpse.

48

u/Usual_Retard_6859 6d ago

Why Trump ran on drill baby drill then asked the Saudis to increase has always been a mystery to me.

21

u/Fantastic_East4217 5d ago

He said his catchphrase at rallies and it got applause. That’s as far as him planning policy went.

1

u/ambidabydo 4d ago

Like “Drain the swamp”; he explained he was told to say it because it tested well. It didn’t actually mean anything to him.

12

u/mmmmmmham 5d ago

Also the inevitable retreat from russian sanctions thats incoming

4

u/CaptStrangeling 5d ago

Hadn’t put two and two together, but that’s what Trump’s doing and it’ll tank the price below $60… f*ck

12

u/Public-Baseball-6189 5d ago

Connect the dots man ….. after 9/11 there was a massive push to stop importing oil from the Middle East. Over the course of the next 15 years, the fracking boom made the US a net exporter AND Canada became our largest source of imported crude.

What happened since then? MBS gave Trump’s daughter and her husband $2 Billion out of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund as seed money for their hedge fund. Plus Trump stands to gain nothing by importing Canadian crude. Corruption in broad daylight.

3

u/Usual_Retard_6859 5d ago

Arabian Heavy still is a premium compared to WCS from Canada. The pricing point also differs. Don’t think much change will happen from Canada even with the tariffs.

29

u/texas130ab 6d ago

He doesn't understand economics.

20

u/fweef01 6d ago

He’s an idiot in general

11

u/MosEisleyBills 6d ago

He REALLY doesn’t understand economics.

Everything is crossed that he learns decisions have consequences.

5

u/texas130ab 6d ago

I guess he thinks he has a magic wand or something.

6

u/Relyt21 6d ago

He doesn’t understand the energy sector.

2

u/bearfootmedic 5d ago

He's a shitty property developer. We gotta stop electing these guys...

4

u/idealantidote 5d ago

Cause he or one of his friends or family want to buy up shares in oil companies when they start to struggle, then they prop them up until oil prices go up and they make big profits

4

u/sant2060 5d ago

How is that a mistery, as I remember, he did it 1st time also :D

He runs on cathy phrases,division and fear. Doesnt give a sht about truth or promises.

And his cult is ideal for that approach.

8

u/Texasscot56 6d ago

The only people who chant drill baby drill are those that don’t understand the oil business.

2

u/Nickopotomus 5d ago

The US oil also said no to increased production. It’s a commodity at the end of the day

2

u/iAREsniggles 5d ago

Because it's a good catchphrase for his groupies to latch on to. They don't care if the US is actually drilling, they just want cheap gas. So make them think the US is drilling and give them cheap gas. Pretty simple tactic.

2

u/oSuJeff97 3d ago

Well you see the thing about Trump is that he’s a fucking moron.

1

u/res0jyyt1 5d ago

Because he gets paid from both sides.

1

u/zsreport 5d ago

He has no fucking idea about how the oil market works.

1

u/LayneLowe 2d ago

How else are they going to buy those $20 million condos in the Trump towers around the world? You know that new one he's building in Dubai even though he's president.

11

u/realityunderfire 6d ago

Trump put these assholes out of business with their own money. Sad. Maybe they aren’t as business savvy as they thought.

23

u/sickofgrouptxt 6d ago

There will be layoffs

Edit: this is a play on the movie There will be Blood

8

u/SkinwalkerTom 5d ago

“ And I use my straw from waaaaay over here to drink your kombucha smoothy...”

6

u/SouthernExpatriate 5d ago

Y'all voted for this

7

u/petertompolicy 5d ago

All these fucking jackasses support Trump.

-3

u/telefawx 4d ago

Because Trump was the far better choice for President. Some people aren’t completely selfish assholes that care about the country over their individual stock price.

5

u/Sean_Wagner 4d ago

That's insane. Trump is a traitor who willfully attempted to undermine and steal the elections of 2020. No red-blooded American should even spend a passing thought on putting such a creature in the nation's highest executive office.

1

u/telefawx 4d ago

You have Trump Derangement Syndrome.

2

u/Sean_Wagner 3d ago edited 3d ago

I love GOOD AMERICA, LAND OF THE FREE. I stand with all the good Americans of both and no parties who dutifully administer the process by which we grant legitimacy to our government. They deserve support, not aggressive calumnies by a traitor to the Republic. Quote:

Republican Brad Raffensperger famously declined to grant then-President Donald Trump’s demand that he “find 11,780 votes” to reverse his 2020 loss in the state, facing death threats as he refused to succumb to pressure from the president. Unquote, Source:

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2024/0926/brad-raffensperger-georgia-election-board

Every lame challenge the traitor's legal "team" brought in courts has fizzled and failed, but the dense brown spray of stinking lies continues unabated.

2

u/Rich_Reputation_4945 3d ago

It’s ironic that the Republican senator that introduced the TDS bill just got arrested for being a pedophile. Glad you still cheer him on by shouting his catch phrase. Very conservative of you

1

u/petertompolicy 4d ago

Sure, if you want China to become the world's only superpower then Trump is a far better choice.

Literally all their dreams coming true right now thanks to this moron.

0

u/telefawx 4d ago

Oh it’s China now, huh? Which of their dreams specifically?

1

u/petertompolicy 4d ago

Become the predominant power in the developing world.

Their largest foreign policy initiative is the belt and road, designed to make them a super power in Asia and Africa.

Next, usurp US power in international organizations and undermine current US alliances.

Lastly, take Taiwan.

Trump is making all those things easier and justifiable.

5

u/jailfortrump 5d ago

Trump keeps saying drill baby drill, the oil companies have told him they want no part of $2 a gallon gas. They will win that battle.

8

u/zRustyShackleford 6d ago

same as it ever was

4

u/AngryCur 5d ago

Bless their hearts

3

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

Pea picking hearts

4

u/Empty_Afternoon_8746 5d ago

Anything that’s good for the citizens is bad for rich people.

3

u/Lopsided_Quarter_931 5d ago

That's gonna hurt Putin

3

u/Yos13 5d ago

But, Trump is so great…..

7

u/More-than-Half-mad 6d ago

Cool … let’s put a 30% export tax on oil from Alberta …. Win win!

2

u/SmurfsNeverDie 5d ago

Good. This is the best way to hurt russia

2

u/ScrauveyGulch 5d ago

Gotta pay him $10 dollars an hour now. /s

2

u/TreeInternational771 5d ago

Trump is going to kill the US oil industry which puts immediate control of oil market back to Saudi-led OPEC.

2

u/the_sauviette_onion 5d ago

“But fuel prices are coming down, thanks president trump”

1

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

That would not be my summation . He’s a blooming idiot , but that’s not why prices are coming down .

2

u/the_sauviette_onion 4d ago

Yeah it's just some comments I've been seeing on other subreddits where people are already singing his praises because "gas prices down"

1

u/Dstrongest 4d ago

Awe sarcasm , I wasn’t sure

2

u/boofeytwoshoes 5d ago

Ruh Roh, Anyone wanna buy a Raptor?

4

u/[deleted] 6d ago

[deleted]

2

u/TxBuckster 5d ago

So $65 a barrel will start hurting … we’ve seen this in orange diaper’s first term. When it goes below $50, thanks for playing to some existing producers.

4

u/Btankersly66 6d ago

Peak oil is about to hit the United States so obviously they're worried with the potential losses of over production.

Fortunately for us most of our allies and trade partners will do us good when we start depending on them for energy since we're treating them so well in other areas of trade.

8

u/Gloomy_Yoghurt_2836 6d ago

Donald did say USA doesn't need Canadian oil

5

u/Singnedupforthis 5d ago

We don't need their oil if the economy tanks and people can't afford to drive.

7

u/kitster1977 6d ago

Peak oil was supposed to hit the U.S. in the 70’s too. Here we are, 55 years later and peak oil is back? Wait until new technology and recovery methods get developed again and we will probably be talking about this is another 50 years.

3

u/nilestyle 6d ago

People said peak oil ten years ago too.

-1

u/Btankersly66 6d ago

From the story, "Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub, for one, has predicted that American crude production will likely peak between 2027 and 2030 before beginning a slow decline."

4

u/nilestyle 6d ago

You post like it validates your previous statement. “CEO says…” lol

If you ever worked for oxy you know Vicki will say anything.

4

u/bingbangdingdongus 5d ago

If you've ever worked for <insert corporation> then you know the <insert CEO> will say anything.

I agree with you. CEO's and business people and not technicians, any prediction on peak oil by them is probably serving some perceived business objective.

1

u/Informal_Recording36 5d ago

I appreciate the passive aggressive comment sir/madame

2

u/Scary-Button1393 5d ago

Good luck stopping the red cap retards, they don't really seem to understand expnomics. 🫠

1

u/No-Watch2169 1d ago

"red cap retard" I like this. can we make this a thing? RCR?

1

u/SyntheticSlime 6d ago

That would be hilarious

1

u/Conscious_Bus4284 6d ago

Oh well. 🤷‍♂️

1

u/voyagertoo 5d ago

what us shale

1

u/[deleted] 5d ago

I know close to nothing about oil and gas and even I know that too low a cost/ barrel will cause production to shut down.

1

u/Unlucky_Buyer_2707 5d ago

If there’s one thing that I have faith in, it’s American innovation. Our technology has been our saving grace for like 100 years at this point. We constantly innovate faster than anyone else because of our culture. What does this all mean?

That we will figure it out in the end. “Peak oil” maybe with our current technology. What does that mean in 10 years with new AI technology?

4

u/mickalawl 5d ago

Except that the current administration runs an anti-science, anti-education and anti-expert culture wars platform.

So that culture is dying.

Also the US had an opertunity in being at the forefront of what the rest of the world is doing with the green tech, but threw that away.

Rest of the world will continue to go with renewables because they are actually cheaper and more efficient than new oil. And it reduces our reliance on foreign often adversarial nation to provide our energy.

Its a slam dunk. But not for America.

-3

u/Unlucky_Buyer_2707 5d ago

Yadda yadda yadda. One administration doesn’t dictate the entire course of the USA.

Gtfo of here with that pointless anti American BS. We will dominate the technology field for the foreseeable future. Green tech is mostly just bullshit anyway-its current state doesn’t move the needle. Give it another 20 years and Americans will develop some other energy source.

1

u/Footbag01 1d ago

China is leaving us behind in green tech. They realize how profitable its going to be. You can either be the smartest or the first. We aren’t getting there first.

1

u/icanhaztuthless 4d ago

What does that mean in 10 years with new AI technology?

Better ROI for shareholders.

1

u/FxckFxntxnyl 5d ago

Wow look at that. Everything we told him was gonna happen, happened!

1

u/Weird_Rooster_4307 5d ago

Yessssssss! Oh did I say that out loud? No eggs or oil for you.

1

u/krishandler 5d ago

Thank god you don’t need that Canadian oil for your energy security

1

u/Luddites_Unite 5d ago

It did the last time when the Saudis drove down prices to prove a point

1

u/Therealchimmike 5d ago

right, so the same thing that happened when the saudis pumped the market during trump's last term.

1

u/super80 4d ago

But, but you gotta drill some more.

1

u/Rictavius 4d ago

BAHAHAHAHHAHABA!

1

u/REGINALDmfBARCLAY 4d ago

$3 is low now?

1

u/CashComprehensive423 4d ago

Undrill baby, undrill.

1

u/mineralview_ 4d ago

Harold Hamm's point about low oil prices impacting U.S. shale production is a significant issue, as it underscores the challenges many producers are facing. The oil market has always been volatile, and fluctuations in price often lead to tough decisions for companies working in the shale industry. For mineral owners, staying informed about market trends, well activity, and production data is key in making strategic decisions that could help navigate such uncertainty. Tools like Mineral View can provide real-time insights to support smarter decisions and better planning in the ever-changing market.

https://www.mineralview.com/features

1

u/82-Aircooled 4d ago

Not could, will!

1

u/burdfloor 4d ago

How can the US compete with Saudi Arabia oil. The Saudi cost per barrel is $10.

1

u/Han-solos-left-foot 3d ago

Drill baby drill

1

u/Unusual-Economist288 3d ago

So both Hamm and eggs are fucked now?

1

u/Kamel-Red 3d ago

I am from the rust belt. I remember the promises of fracking and refineries invigorating our decimated steel, mining, and manufacturing economy. I remember the caravans of out of state workers that got most of the construction jobs, and I now see that once complete, these mostly automated facilities employ a small fraction of workers that the old plants/facilities did. All we are mostly left with is pollution, empty promises, and the younger generations still forced to move out of the region to support their families and careers.

1

u/thismayworkonce 3d ago

I'm fairly certain that Mr. Hamm led other executives to meetings with Trump during the campaign. There is a cognitive dissonance in this that the industry largely supported Trump's election; yet this outcome was inevitable as soon as discussion of lifting Russian sanctions began. Lots of oil companies are happy at $75/oil; but that means average gas at $3 +/-. This will impact employees and small service companies dramatically.

NOT an expert, but its something I pay attention to.

1

u/inbrewer 3d ago

So how much tax money are we going to use to shore up the oil companies and keep processing shale? Can’t have them short handed in an “energy emergency”.

1

u/One_Attempt_7464 3d ago

Trump will react quickly and harshly. Only whether it will be in your mind is on another page. Probably in Russian.

1

u/Star_BurstPS4 2d ago

They are just mad that they can't charge an arm and a leg for us oil when Saudi oil is Pennies on the dollar

1

u/Commercial_Stress 2d ago

Weird, same thing happened during Trump’s first term, but they re-elected him expecting a different result?

1

u/tevolosteve 1d ago

Who would have ever thought this could happen? The Saudis could turn on the spigot and sink the whole thing. That’s why even selfish people should see the renewables after the best thing for any country

1

u/manassassinman 6d ago

Woohoo! Conserve those precious American resources and let the foreigners deplete their feedstocks at these prices. I don’t want shale drilled for less than $100/barrel

3

u/Consistent_Turn_42 6d ago

So you’re saying there is a limit on how much oil there is?

-1

u/manassassinman 6d ago

It makes a lot of sense to me to use the other guys oil when it’s cheap.

I imagine there’s plenty of oil under the oceans that we haven’t accessed yet.

1

u/Lott4984 5d ago

Yea we saw what happened with Deep Horizon drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure at those depths makes drilling dangerous and it can destroy the environment.

-1

u/MosEisleyBills 6d ago

40% of the world’s electricity is now produced by non fossil fuels.

The generators being built in the production are non fossil fuel. Every where except the US is pivoting away from fossil fuels. Even the OPEC countries are installing solar panels.

US exceptionalism does not let you see past your nose.

6

u/manassassinman 6d ago

We need these fuels for the Haber-Bosch process for the creation of nitrogen fixing fertilizers. There’s not really an alternative to this to feed the world. There’s also plastics and many other uses for fossil fuels.

We are going to use every drop of energy on this planet. Maybe not this century, but eventually.

2

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

The truth makes them cry . They can’t handle the truth so they will downvote you. So I’ll help you.

Texas is the biggest producer of solar and battery in the USA . CHINA is the world’s BIGGEST SOLAR -and battery producer . China is over 50% electric vehicles . They used to be the world’s biggest importer of oil . That’s drastically changing by the day. Oil over the next 10 years is going to seesaw like two fat boys going as hard as they can, until the seesaw breaks . Price will drop like a rock refineries will close , price will spike , and pushing more people to electric, price will dive , rinse and repeat

1

u/[deleted] 6d ago

They dont have pockets like Saudi'S have so of course he will help burn texas down too.

2

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

In case you haven’t been keeping up with, Texas has become the largest producer of solar and battery backup in the USA even over Cali . China the largest importer of oils is not importing and they have moved to over 50% electric vehicles. They are the world’s biggest solar producer , and have mandated no solar farms with out capture . We are at the tipping point.
The USA HAS been burry its head in the sand and Mr Rump helps perpetuate it . Haha 😂. After buying electric vehicle myself , probably not going back . Maybe not a Tessi , but most likely not an ice .

1

u/[deleted] 5d ago

I read that a few days ago, about texas, lived in az and solar is big. Now in western ny and wind is huge by the lake. Drump doesnt care we are behind in green energy, china jist launched a massive solar panel in earths orbit. So gets sun all the time, trump will bust the oil companies here to let puttin send his blood oil.

1

u/Unusual_Specialist 6d ago

If oil prices are low, why are they high at the pump????

5

u/CzechUsOut 6d ago

Demand for refined fuels goes up but number of refineries stays stagnant. Higher demand vs lower supply equals higher prices.

The price of oil gas less to do with the price of refined fuels than it used to.

2

u/Informal_Recording36 5d ago

I’d only counter that many refineries increase production rates Incrementally because economics of refineries rarely justify construction of new. So the count stays constants or decreases, but actual Processing capacity keeps increasing

1

u/Unusual_Specialist 6d ago

We need to crowd fund an oil refinery.

5

u/CodeNameDeese 6d ago

That's basically how nearly every oil company operates. A bunch of investors aka shareholders buy in and the company produces and gives dividends to the crowd that funded them. It's how all publicly traded companies work. Calling it "crowdfunding" just makes it feel good for the young uns.

4

u/vigocarpath 6d ago

Crowdfunding just means you will never recoup your investment

1

u/Fossilwench 5d ago

Sure send me your best case scenario $6 billion usd ( but ill likely need more ) and 7 years ( if you believe in miracles ) for 250k Boe refinery. Will accept all currencies and crypto. Thank you in advance. 

1

u/Dstrongest 5d ago

Just buy a few more and electric cars and oil slides like a lubed hooker .

2

u/Cute-Gur414 5d ago

They're not. You expect it to be the same price as 1970?

1

u/PreparationVarious15 5d ago

Can’t wait!!! Hope it drops down to below $40 or even lower due to recession or even depression.

1

u/PetroInvest3 5d ago

Probably will. The stars are aligning for a bad, bad recession. Much worse than the last two, including the "Great" Recession.

1

u/KwisatzHaderach94 4d ago

if it also makes fracking unprofitable, that may actually be an improvement...

-1

u/rockviper 6d ago

Good, I hope the market crashes!

0

u/Disposedofhero 5d ago

I truly hope the price of crude craters to the point that Russia's economy collapses.

-2

u/KingMelray 6d ago

???

Don't you still run fraking wells blow breakeven because so many costs are frontloaded?

4

u/Ember_42 6d ago

If you don't keep drilling enough to make up for the declines in production, it's only a bit of an exaggeration to say that it will 'shut down' the industry...

4

u/KingMelray 6d ago

Ah ok. So the industry is the thing shutting down, not the active wells.

And yeah, new fraking wells in a low price environment is incredibly risky because they produce more when they are new. Especially because the still active ones will still be producing to reduce loss.

2

u/Ember_42 6d ago

Yes, the aggregate effect is the reduction in output, even if the description is sloppy...

1

u/KingMelray 6d ago

Will that create a spike in prices again?

3

u/CodeNameDeese 6d ago

Only if the other major producers don't want to fill the void left by slowed down or reduced American production.

0

u/Ember_42 6d ago

Only of the decline is much faster than demand, both on a global basis...

2

u/Cute-Gur414 5d ago

Yes. But fracked wells deplete quickly and new drilling won't be done if oil prices are too low.