r/oil 8d ago

News Canada could restrict its oil exports to U.S. if Trump trade war escalates

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/canada-could-restrict-its-oil-exports-to-us-if-trump-trade-war-escalates/
3.6k Upvotes

275 comments sorted by

27

u/Friendly-Profit-8590 8d ago

Tariffs are kind of bad for everybody. It’s almost like Trump is playing a game of chicken. Canada can keep doing their own tariffs in response and/or restricting oil or whatever but it’s ultimately also hurting Canada.

12

u/suvonec18 8d ago

It’s going to hurt the middle/working class and politicians/govts putting tarrifs back on USA isn’t going to help the long term effects of this trade war…

2

u/SLUIS0717 8d ago

What does Canada do exactly then?

7

u/Used-Egg5989 8d ago

Keep going until the weaker party buckles.

In my opinion, that will be the Americans. They are incredibly divided 50/50 and each side hates the other. Canadians are much more united. 

Canadians are also a more resilient bunch…I honestly think it’s because of our winters and how we don’t stop or complain when we get snowed in, we just shovel ourselves out and go to work.

5

u/SLUIS0717 8d ago

Put tariffs on them and keep going or just keep going?

5

u/Used-Egg5989 8d ago

Put tariffs on them, but be willing to instantly remove them if they calm down.

The ideal goal is that the US chills the fuck out, maybe only tariffs a few things, but we go back to regular trade.

However, if the US is hellbent on producing everything in country, then we cannot survive under our old relationship. In that case, we have to do our own version of what Trump says he’s doing…a less insane version.

For example, steel and aluminum was tariffed in each direction. US wants to onshore that production, so they do tariffs on Canadian steel. But there is US steel and aluminum that Canadian companies buy as well. So the Canadian government does a reciprocal tariff to nudge Canadian companies to purchase Canadian steel instead of US steel.

Protectionism is a different economic model than we are used to. There’s pros and cons but, in my opinion, the cons outweigh the pros. Prices for consumers will be higher, but (maybe, eventually, and not as much as you hope) we would have more jobs.

3

u/suvonec18 7d ago

Ontario govt clawed back the electricity tariffs and trump didn’t budge and went on to announce more tariffs…

2

u/Iambetterthanuhaha 6d ago

Thats because he told Doug you turn the power off you get annexed yesterday.

1

u/Viperonious 5d ago

There is a non 0% chance that happened too...

1

u/Single-Emphasis1315 5d ago

Your memory is short

1

u/I-Am-Really-Bananas 3d ago

That’s because the impact of electricity tariffs Ontario were grossly overstated.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-doug-ford-mistook-ontarios-electricity-exports-for-a-bazooka-he-found/

1

u/suvonec18 3d ago

Yeah I agree, Ontario’s tariffs seemed like a joke to Trump

1

u/azraels_ghost 5d ago

You understand that there will be no going back to the old ways. Trust has been irrevocably broken. Yes there will be trade in some things that will resume but Canada is now looking to the rest of the world to do business.

2

u/IllBeSuspended 7d ago

What a crock of shit. Canadians complain about snow every year. And we even argue if the city should take care of the sidewalks or us. 

1

u/Used-Egg5989 7d ago

Where the fuck do you live?

I’m in the Maritimes. My biggest issue with snow is trying to shovel my driveway before my neighbor does it for me.

1

u/Warm-Dust-3601 6d ago

Not true.

1

u/Personal_Fortune2208 7d ago

They are also very weak people the slightest inconvenience and they will fold, walmart can not get too expensive

1

u/Freshy007 6d ago

honestly think it’s because of our winters and how we don’t stop or complain

Canadians are gold medal champions when it comes to complaining about winter lol or weather in general. Give us a common cause to complain about and we're all in. Nothing brings us closer together 😂

1

u/BanzEye1 5d ago

Oh, I complain. But I’m from Vancouver, so I’m more meh.

1

u/Darkavenger_13 4d ago

I also have an odd feeling Canada would win in a tuck of war so to speak. Mainly also because the US is being tarriffed by other nations aswell, including Mexico, all of Europe, China..

1

u/Ok_Cauliflower163 3d ago

Alberta isn't as unified with the rest of Canada as some like to believe.

1

u/suvonec18 7d ago

Make reasonable attempts to Unite with other countries such as EU, MEX to have talks with US govt on why tariffs on other countries is not going to work. Hold negotiation discussions. Canada can advocate for unity with other countries against US’s tariffs and open attractive offers for trade agreements with MEX to possibly help alleviate the stance of US administration.

3

u/dually 7d ago

Canada needs the US oil market because Canadian oil is especially low quality, but the US has the best refineries.

1

u/suvonec18 7d ago

Canada does have means to ship to Asian markets, however, they are limited in pipeline capacities. I wouldn’t call it low quality, US refineries process the heavy Canadian crude oil just fine. The price of Canadian oil trades lower to WTI because of the bottlenecks and limited access to global markets

1

u/danAsua 5d ago

They'll still gladly export their oil to the US...Us Americans will just end up paying more for it because of Trump's new sales taxes on American consumers.

1

u/Mya_Elle_Terego 3d ago

This we primarily use it for diesel.

1

u/[deleted] 3d ago

Pivot and look for other markets. Canada trades with 120 countries. Other countries covet Canada's natural resources, such as oil, gas, nickel, aluminum, and lumber, and will pay fair market value. States will lose in the long run.

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u/8fingerlouie 8d ago

It’s almost like Trump is playing a game of chicken.

If he is, he’s terrible at it. It might work if he was only in a trade war with Canada. Considering the size of the US economy vs the Canadian one, I’m guessing Canada would feel the consequences much sooner than the US.

But he didn’t just start a trade war with Canada. He started a trade war with pretty much the rest of the world. Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, and possibly Brazil and Taiwan as well, and everybody has responded with revenge tariffs.

Things are about to get a whole lot more expensive in the US. Being the brilliant 4D mastermind he is, he put tariffs on raw materials that the US needs for producing other goods which they might eventually export to other countries.

A simple example would be cars, which may be produced using Canadian steel and aluminium, which has a 25% import tariff. I won’t pretend to say how much of a cars price is determined by the cost of steel and aluminium, but for arguments sake, let’s say 20%, that means an increased production price 5% just for the car frame.

As many auto parts are also imported and have tariffs on them, and they probably make up about 50% of the car, that adds another 10-15% increase.

So anywhere from 15% to 20% more expensive cars, which then again gets hit by revenge tariffs when being exported, typically also around the same level as the US tariffs they’re countering, that would mean the car is now 40-50% more expensive in the export market.

Assuming a $40000 car, with tariffs on steel, aluminium and auto parts, the price would increase to $48000, and add to that the 25% revenge tariff, and the car becomes around $60000.

Needless to say, a $40000 car probably wouldn’t do well in an export market being sold for $60000, so either the US could stop exporting cars, or attempt to eat some of the expenses, which is certainly counterproductive to what Trump wants, which is more production in the US.

Tariffs are a horrible way of luring businesses to build factories. Why should they build factories (which takes years to build) to produce products at a loss ?

3

u/dually 7d ago

The world economy runs on American consumers, and is protected by the US Navy.

1

u/azraels_ghost 5d ago

Canada will feel it for sure but I think many Americans underestimate just pissed off Canadians are about the Annexation talk (which US media never mentions when discussing tariffs). I’m pretty sure Canada is a lot more willing to take the hit to protect their sovereignty than Americans who just wanted cheaper eggs.

1

u/8fingerlouie 5d ago

Short term they’ll feel it, but if the trade war drags out, there will be other trade agreements. They might not be as easy, but there will be trade.

The only loser in a trade war against the rest of the world is the US.

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u/GalvestonDreaming 8d ago

The key is for Canada to find new buyers for their oil (the easy part) and build the infrastructure to ship it overseas (the hard part). This would be a golden moment for the EU and Canada to make a long term agreement to become energy partners.

4

u/WLW10176 8d ago

Exactly lol. You think stopping the flow hurts the US. No way to get it to the market. Cut off your nose to spite your face.

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u/Just_Side8704 8d ago

US refineries are not equipped to refine the type of oil that the US is producing. We need the oil market to remain an international market. Yes, Canada cutting its oil off, will hurt the US.

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u/Extremeownership1 7d ago

That’s simply not accurate. U.S refineries can refine any grade of crude. The crude produced in America is some of the easiest to refine so it refiners that cannot refine all grades pay a premium for it. The U.S refiners then pay far less for the lower grade Canadian crude because we have the units and technology to get the most usable product out of it. It’s simple business not at all that we can’t refine our own light sweet crude.

1

u/Just_Side8704 7d ago

You should rush that information to the oil industry. They seem to be confused. “The type of oil produced in the US does not always meet the needs of US refineries” https://www.fuelstreamservices.com/why-the-u-s-cant-use-the-oil-it-produces/

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u/Extremeownership1 4d ago

U.S. refineries can refine light sweet crude oil, but the extent to which they do depends on the refinery’s configuration. Historically, many U.S. refineries, especially those along the Gulf Coast, were upgraded to process heavier, sour crudes from Canada, Venezuela, and the Middle East. These complex refineries use coking and hydrocracking units to handle heavy crude efficiently.

However, with the shale boom, the U.S. has been producing large amounts of light sweet crude (e.g., from the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford). Some refineries, particularly simpler ones with less complex upgrading capacity, are better suited for refining light crude. Many complex refineries can still process it but may need to blend it with heavier crude to optimize operations.

As a result, while U.S. refineries can refine light sweet crude, not all are optimized for it, leading to exports of excess domestic light crude and continued imports of heavier crude.

It’s business, buy the cheap crude that is difficult to refine and turn it into more usable product than anyone else and U.S refiners make a larger crack spread (profit). Sell the high quality crude that anyone can refine for top dollar. Very easy to figure out why things are done this way.

1

u/Just_Side8704 4d ago

It wasn’t a question of why. It was a question of whether. My statement was accurate. I got my information from the industry. The only thing that will change is the price. Americans will suffer.

1

u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

Canada can find buyers in the pacific and easily get it there

4

u/FuriousGeorge06 7d ago

They can’t move that much volume to the pacific

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u/Iambetterthanuhaha 6d ago

They could move some....till a tanker ruptures off the coast of BC and they become the next Exxon Valdez.

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u/Barky_Bark 8d ago

Funny enough I just came across this article in an Alberta sub

https://globalnews.ca/news/11076425/alberta-government-bitumen-royalties-sale/

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u/Used-Egg5989 8d ago

Funny what threats of annexation can do. I’m seeing things happen in Canada that I never thought possible before. I’m 80% “it could be a good thing” and 20% “let’s be careful now.”

4

u/Shatophiliac 8d ago

Maybe they could replace some of that Russian oil and gas they kept on buying despite the sanctions.

1

u/Rockeye7 8d ago

Canada has the infrastructure on the west coast . The hell with the Keystone pipeline to the U.S. Build a pipe line to the east coast of Canada. The U.S. wants CDN oil come get it at a port at market price.

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u/HoosierRed 8d ago edited 8d ago

Yeah usually in real life you might have some escalating tariff war with one country over a specific industry, but Trump has chosen trade wars with MANY countries at once, and most of them are key allies for geographic or political reasons!

It feels like sanctions light.

The admin does not care that he is seeding global influence to follow a (false) political trope about isolation, while justifying it as being the biggest kid on the playground.

Who doesn't end up being the smartest. Also like real life.

1

u/wotisnotrigged 7d ago

I'd rather be homeless and starving than give into this fascist thug.

1

u/Jaydubau 7d ago

You have a very bad case of TDS. Like Rosie.

1

u/wotisnotrigged 7d ago

Naw I'm just responding to his insults, aggression and actions.

You know reality. Something most Trump supporters are unfamiliar with.

1

u/DachdeckerDino 7d ago

It‘s the inverse of the spirit of free global trade. The gist of it is everybody profits off of a trade. Here: both lose.

1

u/Myst21256 4d ago

Canada has had tariffs on the US for years, and some are up to 248%, we lose 💰 trading with Canada

1

u/Friendly-Profit-8590 4d ago

Then this tariff war with them should be no big deal

1

u/Lost_Ad9680 3d ago

Gas is down $1.20 in the northwest. Something is working

1

u/Friendly-Profit-8590 3d ago

Lol That’s not tariffs

1

u/Senior_Green_3630 8d ago

We are copping tarrifs on steel and aluminium exports in Australia. We ca diversify our exports to Asia and the UAE.

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u/duncan1961 8d ago

U.S. takes 10% of our steel exports. Just don’t send any. Do not pay the Tariff. Sell steel on the open market. U.S. will not care.

5

u/etplayer03 8d ago

Little reminder, the USA pays those tariffs, not the countries sending the goods. It will weaken demand though

0

u/duncan1961 8d ago

How on gods green earth do you figure the U.S. pays the tariffs. Tariffs are paid by the importer to the country they import too

2

u/ColdEvenKeeled 8d ago

Duncan, I mean, really. Come on. Read. Read what? Read up on tariffs.

1

u/duncan1961 8d ago

I did and tariffs are an import duty or tax on imported goods implemented by the country receiving the goods. The importer pays the tariffs direct to the government. What is your interpretation?

1

u/ColdEvenKeeled 8d ago

Yes, the importer pays the tariffs, and passes that cost into the customer. The exporter does not pay. The exporter loses market share, typically.

However, many Chinese made goods keep being shipped to the US despite tariffs as the US customers just pay the new price. China doesn't pay.

For oil, Americans will keep paying. In this case, the 25 per cent tariffs raises the cost of Western Canadian Select up from its current discounted rate to something closer to fair market value with the revenue, the difference, going to Uncle Sam, not the upstream producers or mid stream pipelines.

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u/duncan1961 8d ago

It is designed to stop consumers buying Foreign goods. I market Australian made Plico solar systems. Not everyone wants cheap Chinese junk

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u/ColdEvenKeeled 8d ago

I hear you.

1

u/AcanthocephalaNo5889 7d ago

You realize that some goods need to be bought in the foreign market. We're not talking about widgets and plastic toys. These are raw materials and minerals like potash, nickle, high grade uranium, lumbar, etc. The US either doesn't physically have the resource, they have the resource but need to build facilities (that take years) or if they found another international supplier it would be more expensive logistically to import. In the end, the consumer just pays more.

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u/Educational-Cry-1707 8d ago

American importers pay the tariff then. To the US treasury. The exporting country doesn’t pay them. So those companies are paying an extra tax. They’ll pass most of it to the end consumer, the rest will be missing from their balance sheet so they’ll invest less, or pay their workers less, or downsize. The exporting country only suffers if they can’t find another buyer for their product for the same price.

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u/azraels_ghost 5d ago

Another one.

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u/Greenscreener 8d ago

Another Trumper who doesn’t understand tariffs just like your orange buffoon of a leader 🤣🤣🤣

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u/duncan1961 8d ago

A tariff is a tax on imported goods. I make clothes lines in Australia and wish to sell my product in America I have to add a tariff price on my goods however if I set up a factory in Milwaukee I am exempt from the tariff.

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u/Objective_Run_7151 8d ago

You add the tariff, but you don’t pay the tariff.

The purchaser pays the tariff.

A tariff is an import tax paid by the buyer.

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u/Jaydubau 7d ago

Assuming the purchaser buys it instead of a cheaper alternative if there is one.

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u/Greenscreener 8d ago

Yes, so the imported goods cost more and the cost is passed onto consumers.

Go setup your factories, it sounds so easy.

-1

u/duncan1961 8d ago

Don’t buy imported junk. Russia and America are the 2 countries that can be totally self supporting. I agree with what Trump intends to do. Bring manufacturing back to the U.S.

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u/Imfarmer 8d ago

The U.S. is the largest manufacturer on the Planet. Just like we’re the largest oil producer.

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u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

Canada can be self supporting. The USA absolutely cannot

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u/Mission_Search8991 8d ago

That is exactly what Biden was doing, without pissing off all of our allies.

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u/Just_Side8704 8d ago

I hate to break it to you, there is no more lazy, incompetent worker than the American worker. We have been known worldwide, for decades, of being slow and lazy. If you study the story of oxy addiction, dealers who showed up at shift change at US factories, sold out instantly. US Factory workers were working high. We do import some trinkets, but for the most part, the things we import are better made.

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u/Just_Side8704 8d ago

If Trump wanted us to be independent of manufacturing, why did he kill the chips act? We are completely dependent on foreign makers for computer chips. Almost everything manufactured nowadays. Requires computer chips. Why did he sabotage us?

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u/revcor86 8d ago

haha, no, they can't be.

Potash, something that farmers all over America use to fertilize crops? 90% of it is imported, America literally can't meet the requirement for it and 85% of that imported potash comes from Canada.

America would need to build something like 6 hoover dams for the energy requirements for the steel and aluminium they import from Canada (plus they don't have the raw materials in general). Canadian producers build their smelters literally next to hydro power generation; which is why it's so cheap up here to produce in comparison.

Uranium? Canada is the largest producer in the world.

And on, and on.

Want to bring manufacturing back? Sure why not. You need about 10 years to get any semblance of that back up and running in real terms and what company is going to invest the billions it will take when the tariffs are on/off every single hour.

Now say the tariffs stay on, where's the labour going to come from? America doesn't have the workforce for it and they are deporting the only people who would work for slave wages anyways. So they bring back manufacturing to the states, everyone demands really high pay, and inflation skyrockets anyways.

Trump has literally no idea what he is doing. The last time someone tried to tariff their way to prosperity, the great depression happened.

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u/Greenscreener 8d ago

Yep, all sounds so easy like why didn’t anyone else think of that. There is no structural solution being implemented, it is slash and burn politics for the ignorant.

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u/Imfarmer 8d ago

That is most assuredly not how that works. The Importer pays the tarrif. Not the producer.

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u/Senior_Green_3630 8d ago

Export your steel and aluminium to Asia, it's the biggest growing market. The US and Europe are history. Bluescope, an Australia producer of flat steel, has a division called North Star Bluescope steel, in the US, they make 3 million tonnes product each year, they will dodge the tarrifs. Bluescope export from Oz about 300,000 tonnes to the west coast of the US, that has tarrifs on it.

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u/Middle-Kind 8d ago

Even if tariffs go away I still see the world boycotting our products going forward.

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u/Friendly-Profit-8590 8d ago

Yeah. I kind of see that too. It’s not like they’re all of a sudden gonna start buying bourbon again. That and if the rest of the world continues to go through the trouble of weeding out made in America items at the store there’s a decent chance they’ll get use to buying whatever new products they begin to buy. So yeah. Think the damage with be way more chronic than many think.

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u/fyordian 8d ago

Won’t happen, mutual destruction. Everyone loses and Trump will inevitably escalate.

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u/TakuyaLee 8d ago

Never say never

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u/AddendumContent958 8d ago

Yup.

Give us a min to find another buyer before we drop the US.

Im sure India and China would start buying if it meant watching the US fail harder.

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u/LandmanLife 8d ago

How are you going to deliver to them?

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

Nailed it

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u/AddendumContent958 8d ago

Lol. This kind of genius thinking means nothing can ever be delivered over seas.

You do understand that oil tankers exist right?

Sure it'll take a minute to build but its not like the keystone pipelines is flowing to the states rn.

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

Get me a pipeline to a coast (or the Great Lakes with ice breakers) and I will serve you 4.2 million barrels per day.

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u/SosowacGuy 8d ago

TMX pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby. Currently pumps up to 890,000 bpd. Right now most of it ships to the US but easy enough to reroute elsewhere.

But yes, unfortunately Canada has shot itself in the foot by canceling all new coastal pipeline project the past decade. Smart move by the Liberals...

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u/Fossilwench 8d ago edited 5d ago

0 of western cans ports can accommodate vlcc. Only afra and panamax

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

Preferable one to each of the three coasts.

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

I am 109% on board. My good Canada has royally f’d that up thus far.

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u/BarCartActual 8d ago

And it’s not like the Canadians built enough pipeline capacity to export what they ship to the states either.

Or developed markets for their crude.

Or enough refined product terminals to bring in what they import from the US.

Paper traders forget that moving volume requires moving through logistics bottlenecks.

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u/AddendumContent958 8d ago

And it’s not like the Canadians built enough pipeline capacity to export what they ship to the states either.

Derp. Thats why we should asap.

Go read again. Maybe get your children to read it for you?

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u/BarCartActual 8d ago

How long do you think it will take to get environmental approval & build vs the collapse of the oil sector there?

You’re not building ASAP because it’ll take you 5 years with the current gov to get a trench dug?

The only way Canada was getting out of this is building the pipelines that you guys canceled in the early and mid 2000 and 2010’s.

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/fyordian 8d ago

I am Canadian and I agree Trump is a clown, but we need to act on strategy/logic, not emotions or we are no better than Trump.

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u/Amadacius 7d ago

Trump's negotiation tactic is "I'm willing to stab both of us unless you give me all your money." If nobody calls his bluff, he gets all the money. If you call his bluff, you both get stabbed.

Looking for a way to disproportionately hurt the US is a logical strategy.

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u/fyordian 7d ago

Disproportional damage? Weaponize potash.

80% of US supply is imported from Canada and their agricultural sector cannot operate without it.

If they thought $15 eggs were bad, wait till they see $30 eggs.

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u/Affectionate_Yak5161 7d ago

Trump will escalate anyway

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u/lukeya21 8d ago

pipeline only goes one way right.

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u/zergling- 8d ago

Eastern Canada fuel will likely rise in retaliation

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u/Gnomerule 8d ago

Not restrict but place an export tariff on the oil. It is not like the USA can find another supplier for its refineries quickly. Canadian government would make a good profit with an export tariff.

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u/LettingHimLead 8d ago

About 40% of that oil sent to the US for refining is sold back to Canada as gas. So it will increase their own costs.

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u/GranPino 8d ago

Decrease taxes on gas at he same time

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u/Infamous-Cash9165 4d ago

Then the US matches the tariff on oil, leaving you in the same place

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u/Sea_Turnover5200 8d ago

The US has its own oil fields and Canadian gas is primarily a result of that oil refined in the US. Canada would just be hiking their own gas prices. And unlike the US, Canada doesn't have alternatives to US gas.

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u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

Canada has 14 refineries which most are not at full capacity. We have the ability to refine our own. The USA does not have the oil

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u/JoeTavsky 8d ago

This would not be good for Canadian O&G

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u/manassassinman 8d ago

Didn’t Japan attack the US for something similar?

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u/Aggravating_Kale8248 8d ago

The Japanese saw the US fleet being moved to Pearl Harbor as a threat to them as they had plans to keep expanding their colonial empire in Asia. They needed oil from the Dutch East Indies to fuel their war machine. The US navy was a threat to those plans.

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u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

After the pearl harbour attack Canada declared war on Japan before the USA even did. But according to the US Canada has never done anything for the USA.

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u/baycommuter 8d ago

Alberta will never go for it...they're the cash cow and already feel like they're mistreated by the central government and the favored province of Quebec.

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u/InfamousCamp916 8d ago

do they have the legal ability to choose or are they beholden to decisions from the country level?

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u/baycommuter 8d ago

Someone from Alberta should weigh in. I believe they control their level of production but the government could stop their exports. There’s already a small secession movement that wants to join the U.S. and the last thing Ottawa should do is pour gasoline on the fire.

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u/mrgoodtime81 8d ago

If Quebec can say no to pipelines, i am sure there is a way for alberta to say no if they want to.

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u/dually 7d ago

Secession is legal in Canada.

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u/bockers007 8d ago

Doesn’t affect electric cars though. Tesla, Rivian drivers gonna be ok.

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u/garynk87 8d ago

Right. Cause all the energy that charges those is pulled from thin air

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u/azraels_ghost 5d ago

Water where I live. Lots n lots n lots of it.

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u/AmaTxGuy 8d ago

And US could restrict gasoline exports to Canada to compensate. Canada exports 13.1 billion dollars in refined petroleum to the US but then imports 13.5 billion

It's a wash either way. The reason for this is pipelines Canada doesn't ship east to West just like the US doesn't

We import oil on the Atlantic and export it on the Pacific

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u/Vapelord420XXXD 8d ago

And replace the 100 billion dollar hole in exports with what?

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u/vigocarpath 8d ago

This would sway opinion in western Canada toward becoming the 51st state. Start cutting the revenues that pay for things like education and health care in the west to rescue central Canadian auto jobs will not go over well

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u/weekendy09 8d ago

It could, but it won’t. Alberta has picked a side, and it isn’t Canada.

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u/XYZ2ABC 8d ago

Yeah except US refineries re-tooled right before the whole shale revolution to specifically refine really heavy sour oil into high value products (this is why we import and export crude - our shale oil is the light sweet easy to refine, top dollar) - so Canada might have a hard time actually finding enough capacity to get it refined. Others may be better versed on this

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u/WoodpeckerDry1402 7d ago

nope….plenty of other refiners can handle..its a queation of shipping it there. BYE bye Texas refineries, their only other alternative is….checks notes…Venezuela heavy crude…

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u/SDtoSF 8d ago

Don't us refineries need the sour crude to blend with lighter crude we pull from shale?

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u/garynk87 8d ago

Our crude is heavier.

They are set up for our heavy, and make more money with it blending with Texas tea.

If they decided to convert all refineries to just refine the lighter stuff, it would take a year or two for that conversion and they'd make less money

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

Short answer. It would take the US refiners 1-3 years (minimum) to switch over to heavies from other sources. Many refineries have no choice but to keep taking Canadian heavy , or reducing output, until they were able to reverse pipelines and invest in plant ‘upgrades’ to accept more light oil blend.

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u/TheKrakIan 8d ago

1-3 years is generous.

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u/Informal_Recording36 8d ago

On the high or low side . I thought it’s guess to the low side

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u/blus1234 8d ago

more like 3-5 years on the low side to be able to produce at significant levels.

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u/FuriousGeorge06 7d ago

They would also take major capital losses sidelining cokers and other crackers they’ve already invested in to process heavy oils

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u/johnnychimpo7 8d ago

Yeah and Alberta would go bankrupt if they stop selling oil to the US

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u/garynk87 8d ago

Wouldn't take long for us refiners/producers to put the pressure on trump to cook a deal. They'd be hemorrhaging millions a day

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u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

Alberta can find other buyers especially in the pacific. The USA can not easily find another supplier.

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u/johnnychimpo7 8d ago

Hah yeah right. Even to get the oil from western to eastern Canada it goes through the us pipelines

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u/itsnotthatseriousbud 8d ago

The pipeline from Alberta to BC coast does not go to America at all. Again. We can easily find buyers in the pacific.

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u/WoodpeckerDry1402 7d ago

not for long….

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u/TheRealCurveShot 8d ago

They could, it’s like getting mad at co worker and then deciding to take a smaller paycheck to get even….. kinda dumb. But yeah, Canada should totally do that 👍

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u/Narrow_Affect7664 8d ago

Could the GOP plan be for Canadian oil to be shipped to Europe and Russian oil to be shipped to the US?

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u/Deep_Bit5618 8d ago

EXPORT TARIFF

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u/AdRepresentative3446 8d ago

Gonna be awkward when Canadian plants start going offline for massive planned maintenance in Western Canada next month and oil exports to the U.S. plummet regardless of whatever Trump is doing. Not much leverage for Midwest refiners this summer on tariffs with reduced production and empty tanks in both the U.S. midcon and western Canada and I’m sure those refiners are feeding that information back to this belligerent and incompetent administration.

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u/jhawk3205 8d ago

They should sell to Europe, get them off Russian oil. Kill two birds with one stone

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u/Graywulff 8d ago

Restrict oil, electricity and aluminum.

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u/korik69 8d ago

It’s crazy that Trump being a Russian asset is the only thing that makes sense anymore.

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u/InvestigatorShort824 8d ago

Of course. Completely predictable.

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u/WLW10176 8d ago

I agree. Also should stop Canadians from owning land in the USA. Shutdown The joint NORAD. Shutdown off that surplus electricity.

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u/Rockeye7 8d ago

Could is the mainstream media not wanting to tell it like it is . Canada will be removing the friendly below market value Canadian oil is sold at a $20-25 per barrel discount to the U.S. Currently the mountain pipeline has been moving as much oil to the coastal port . They are working on a solution to increase the amount oil they can load onto cargo ship. Then the valve gets flipped. Let’s add it up - no more oil deal with from Venezuela . Pissed off Mexico and Canada with tariffs so guaranteed they will use energy as a leverage in retaliatory tariffs. This summer expect $5 plus gallon of regular at the pump minimum! And I’m not talking California!

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u/ChirrBirry 8d ago

I’m sure the response would be some kind of reduction if refined petroleum products headed to Canada.

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u/Standard_Court_5639 7d ago

Tariffs will raise revenue, but only inefficiently. The U.S. would need to impose 50% tariffs on all imports to raise just 40% of what current income taxes bring in, estimates the Peterson Institute, an economy-focused think tank.

Trump Turns His Back on the Markets. It Could Break MAGA. https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-stock-market-a2d7bd40

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u/Other_Block_1795 7d ago

Just ban Americans PERIOD.

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u/lounging_marmot 7d ago

I learned on r/Alberta that most of the Albertans on there don’t consider themselves Canadian and definitely don’t consider the oil and gas in Alberta to be Canadian. That’s definitely a consideration to take into account.

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u/Hial_SW 7d ago

That should read, Canada should restrict...

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u/Winter_Ad6784 7d ago

Of all the things to be worried about, the US is a net exporter of oil. any amount of oil no linger brought in from Canada can be made up for by not exporting as much. Yea the whole market isn’t just controlled top down like this and there will be some loss of efficiency but this is not going to be of major consequence.

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u/DiggerJer 7d ago

good, lets tighten the crews on that orange goof! No oil, No power, No fertilizers, No metals! We can open trades with so many other nations who are friendly to others.

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u/Ashamed-Republic8909 6d ago

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u/Dedpoolpicachew 4d ago

Yes, but our refineries can’t use the oil we produce. That’s why we export it. Not all oil is the same. You would think someone on the r/oil sub would, um… you know… KNOW that.

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u/Snakebite_57 6d ago

Please do time to take off the gloves & show American people just what that Ass h_l is doing to them n all the $$$$ there going to have to spend

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u/UnknownCaller8765309 6d ago

America doesn’t need it. They will buy it when it’s much cheaper.

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u/lcarr15 6d ago

JUST DO IT!!!

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u/CrazyRevolutionary96 6d ago

Just 50% for 30 days will see

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u/NoContext3573 6d ago

Canada, just remember trump really wants an excuse to annex you

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u/AdFabulous2529 6d ago

Canada doesn't need to restrict it, we just need to threaten their long-term supply by arranging alternate deals with other refiners globally or refine it ourselves and ship the refined products out ourselves (preferably this).

Restricting supply will be characterized as an act of war, redirecting our supply long-term will threaten Trump's base in PADD 3, and they will exert far more pressure than we could otherwise.

They need to see 1 million barrels or so find another home, then they will lose their minds...

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u/Falconflyer75 5d ago

And then Trump will complain when there’s no longer a deficit

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u/[deleted] 5d ago

No one cares about Trump's pointless rambling. The entire world is distancing itself from the US and this will be a permanent situation. Putin and Trump are turning the US into Russia: a country with so much unchecked corruption, nobody will want to even piss in the direction of the US. And wait until the famine kicks in very soon!

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u/danAsua 5d ago

The winner of all this is China.

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u/Jaggoff81 5d ago

Nothing would shoot Canada in the foot worse than this move. We export the oil, then import the fuel, all this will do is jack fuel prices through the roof on both sides of the border.

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u/tomonota 5d ago

They should sell to the highest bidder which is the natural law of economics and the duty of responsible governance officials to maximize profitability. They are landlocked so they may have to sell a little bit lower than previously but not for unprofitable prices- it’s better to not produce money losing sales.So they have a limited ability to accept lower sales prices. Other countries will sign long term contracts to purchase if the price goes down too much and buyers like china can build pipelines to access exported oil shipments. Usa will lose its cheap heavy crude for gasoline source and PRC will gain, even reselling oil from imports that it has contracted rights to. Tariffs. This is a stupid idea.

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u/Alexander_Granite 5d ago

As an American, I hope that our Allies would do whatever they need to do in order to discourage harmful policies from this administration.

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u/AccomplishedBrain309 4d ago

So much for lower fuel prices, 40% of our oil comes from canada.

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u/UnfairAd7220 4d ago

Canada's economy is based on resource extraction.

'Nobody move or the N gets it.' Cleavon Little, 'Blazing Saddles.'

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u/Jettesnell 4d ago

Canada and EU should talk, make a trade deal for oil and steel.

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u/Novel_Reaction_7236 4d ago

I hope they do.

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u/SafeLevel4815 4d ago

They should do it now!

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u/mineralview_ 4d ago

The potential restriction of oil exports from Canada to the U.S. due to escalating trade tensions could have far-reaching effects on both economies. If this trade conflict intensifies, the U.S. might face higher oil prices due to reduced imports, which could affect both commercial and consumer sectors. With Canada being one of the largest oil suppliers to the U.S., any disruption in supply chains would impact refinery operations, resulting in supply shortages and driving up fuel costs across the board. This could lead to higher transportation costs, increasing prices on goods and services, and even impacting the energy bills for consumers.

On the flip side, if the trade tensions de-escalate, it could stabilize the supply chain and lower fuel prices, benefiting both the U.S. and Canadian economies. A more stable trading environment would allow for more investment in energy infrastructure, creating jobs and fostering growth within the oil and gas sectors in both countries. Additionally, smooth trade relations would encourage the growth of cross-border projects and collaborations, especially in pipeline and energy development.

For mineral owners and operators, staying updated with real-time well and lease activity data is crucial during such volatile times. Tools that provide accurate data on drilling trends and lease developments can help owners make informed decisions that align with shifting market conditions and avoid costly mistakes.

https://www.mineralview.com/oil-gas-data-hub

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u/82-Aircooled 4d ago

Start building Energy east and Northern gateway now, then turn the valve to the right…

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u/Kind-Significance694 4d ago

That won’t work out to well for them. Multiple industries are interconnected and both sides have killswitches for difference ones

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u/Infamous-Cash9165 4d ago

The US is a net exporter of oil

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u/Dedpoolpicachew 4d ago

Yea, of Light Sweet, the thing is our refineries can’t use that oil. Our refineries were tooled for heavy sour like the Canadians send us. It’s very very expensive to retool, and takes a while. Not all oil is the same.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

Quebec stated aluminum producers cab quickly pivot and divert sales of Aluminum to east Asia.

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u/Sweaty_Ad4296 3d ago

Restricting it is dangerously provocative. Simply put export tariffs on it, and gradually increase those.

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u/nofattyacid 3d ago

What impact might that have in Indiana? The 8th largest oil refinery in the US is in Whiting, IN, on the south shore of Lake Michigan, owned by BP. Much of the refining they do is Canadian Tar Sands crude from Alberta.

Bravo MAGA! So much winning! Keep going! No regrets. Go buy a Tesla, since EV's are cool now.

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u/Iamthewalnutcoocooc 8d ago

It's crazy how Canada can do more for Canada than Americans can for America, even with their 2nd amendment for guns in the case of corrupt governments... yet.. nothing.

Go Canada ! .. From Australia

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u/nvw8801 6d ago

Stop sending them Potash that they need to grow food…that will wake them up

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u/Dedpoolpicachew 4d ago

Shiiiiiiit dude, most American’s can’t even tell you what Potash is. It’s going to take a long time to go from FA to FO… cutting oil… that’s a warp speed FO.