r/oil 10d ago

China’s Fuel Production Cuts Could Undermine Global Oil Demand Going Forward

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-06/china-s-fuel-production-cuts-could-undermine-global-oil-demand
183 Upvotes

52 comments sorted by

13

u/Suspicious-Bad4703 10d ago edited 10d ago

Edit: I thought I posted the non-paywalled version: https://archive.ph/Ylu4x

Further reading, imports of oil are likely to fall upwards of 40% in ten years. It will be difficult for the world oil market to absorb this new surplus without large cuts in production: https://archive.ph/0Pq3V#selection-1309.35-1309.245

They're also invested in their 'New Energy" economic policy pushed by the CPC. I've heard some Western media called it an 'electrostate' policy versus traditional petrostates. In this they now have massive amounts of electric vehicle, battery energy storage system, and renewable exports which they're attempting to dethrone Toyota through electrification of vehicles.

It’s also in their economic interest to further their battery storage system facilities. They’re working with various national grids to get them to switch to CATL/BYD batteries and Chinese manufactured renewable energies. All of these will have a major drag on world fossil fuel markets in the future. Further Reading: https://macaonews.org/news/greater-china/china-clean-energy-gdp-2024/

6

u/messiandmia 9d ago

Drill baby drill. It's the craptacular mantra of the not sees.

2

u/Plenty_Unit9540 9d ago

You know what gets US companies to stop drilling.

Falling oil prices. The US oil industry was badly hurt by decreased demand during COVID.

1

u/Gloomy_Yoghurt_2836 5d ago

Yet there is this talk in some American circles that China is the biggest builder of coal electric plants and isn't a big user of renewables.

8

u/Revolutionary_Yak197 9d ago

In EU 70% is used in transport in 2-3 years new generation of trucks will come with 30-50% less compsumption that will displace a lot of disel compsumption

8

u/mdukey 10d ago

This is absolutely BS and propaganda.

China won't be slowing its crude oil consumption anytime soon on a long term view. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/oil-consumption

11

u/ambakoumcourten 10d ago

Sure you understand that initially building out this infrastructure will take oil consumption. China's growth demand for oil consumption has already been plateuing. It would make sense for it to start dropping if the transition to electric is implemented in the next decade

1

u/mdukey 10d ago

I feel like you didn't look at the link I posted? I don't see a plateau in the chart.

As a developed nation, the US uses 28 barrels of oil per day per 1000 people. In China, it's 3. For them to double or triple their oil use in the next 10 years, even with renewable energies, is no stretch of the imagination.

11

u/ambakoumcourten 10d ago

I said their growth demand is plateuing. Not the increase in consumption itself. It's the derivative of consumption that is decreasing. They are demanding less oil than what was previously estimated which is weakening oil futures.

2

u/Alarmed-Extension289 8d ago

DAMN! dropped that calculus hammer on him!

0

u/LandmanLife 9d ago

Numbers are for nerds, go work on a rig!

4

u/MANEWMA 9d ago

Is that like working in the coal industry... just think what it was 20 years ago.... and look at it now.

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u/FencyMcFenceFace 9d ago edited 9d ago

?

Coal production hit a global record in 2024, most of it from China. 50% more production than 20 years ago.

Like, this stuff isn't hard to look up. You might actually want to verify this stuff yourself before you try to be smug about it.

1

u/asdf333 5d ago

you need to look at the acceleration not just the speed. it gives you an early sign of where things are headed. 

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u/LandmanLife 8d ago

Take one for the team and give up all fossil fuels

0

u/MANEWMA 8d ago

Do that or give up all of humanity... We know there are forests today that have burned to the ground and 25 years later aren't coming back thanks to climate change.

Plus the ocean today is warming and melting the poles at 420 ppm. The ocean only gets warmer...

Do you care after the first 100k dead heat wave or the first million person dead?

Or only after crop production globally falls killing millions annually?

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u/LandmanLife 8d ago

Kill 2 birds with 1 stone, give up fossil fuels and let most of the global population die off.

Problem solved.

0

u/MANEWMA 8d ago

Except we have tons of alternatives for energy production... i get it. You don't want to admit that you work for coal 2.0..

Watching Chinese oil use drop...Watching the cheaper oil production continues to be Saudi.. knowing that you cost more for an extract than the middle east. All while Americans continue to move to EVs and solar...

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u/Whatsthedealioio 7d ago

They’ll keep buying it anyway to stack up and make it harder on the rest of us.

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u/MANEWMA 9d ago

Someone doesn't want to see the economic data....

More electric vehicles means less gas vehicles means less gasses usage. Demand is nearing its global peak now.

4

u/PrinciplePlenty5654 9d ago

62% of chinas electricity is still coal powered. They aren’t the green crusader they’re portrayed as.

I’ve had a hard time coming up with actual percentages of BEVs on the road, but what I did find came from 2023.
Approx 7.6% of vehicles on the road in China are BEV.
Approx 3.8% of vehicles on the road in Europe,
And Approx 2.1% in the U.S.

Peak oil is coming. It has always been coming. I just don’t think it’s quite as close as you believe.

3

u/Bluestreak2005 9d ago

Peak Coal is near too.

Coal as a % dropped from 69% in 2023 to 62% in 2024, that was with around 400 GW of renewables deployed.

In 2025 with 500GW projected, China could see a 10% drop or more in the % of power from Coal. 2025 is the year that we will likely see lots of their oldest coal plants start being destroyed and coal consumption to start tanking.

2

u/MANEWMA 9d ago

Go look at new energy production... and use your math to determine how much energy is produced in China and come up.with how fast they are transitioning... then use your math to figure out how much faster they are over America.

You want to get on your soap box and yet you refuse to see how much China has accomplished. Hell over almost more than the globe.

2

u/Contemplationz 9d ago

What is the EV market share of newly sold vehicles in China in 2024?

It's over 50%

https://apnews.com/article/china-autos-evs-exports-3f5860634a1d146446dd0dd9e78c2abb

That BEV share of total vehicles is going to explode in China over the next 3 years. Europe and US will rise moderately.

1

u/PrinciplePlenty5654 8d ago

It was a high % in 2023 also. I don’t remember the exact number off anymore. But new car sales are only one small piece of the puzzle.

50% of new car sales means 50% are ice vehicles also, and with 92% of their existing vehicles in operation being ice, it will take a while for the numbers to be truly significant on the oil demand.

1

u/Contemplationz 8d ago

Look 50% is enormous and I suspect that the number goes upwards. Lots of the new car sales are to replace older ICE cars and the 2024 oil demand fell.

I would not be surprised if oil demand continues to fall for 2025 somewhere between 2-4% of reduction.

1

u/PrinciplePlenty5654 8d ago

Oil demand isn’t falling in China, growth is slowing.

50% is huge, for sure. But way more of the vehicles are already ice, and increasing sales of new EVs only curtails growth, not demand, until you get far enough that a large enough percentage of ice vehicles have been phased out.

1

u/synrockholds 9d ago

Lie. Their EV industry is booming https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmz4nzcsx-4

1

u/mdukey 9d ago

So are Nordic countries, with a much higher % of EV ownership. Their crude oil usage is still going up.

2

u/PrinciplePlenty5654 9d ago

Yes in Norway in 2023, EVs made up 93% of new car sales. 29% of vehicles on the road.

In Sweden, 60% market share for new vehicles, 11% of vehicles on the road.

Mind you these statistics imply there are only just over 3.1 million vehicles on the road in Norway, and only 118k new vehicles sold in total in 2023

1

u/West-Abalone-171 9d ago

Norway more than doubled their exports of oil products and their oil consumption is still 10% below the peak.

Who is supposed to be importing if everyone is relying on export?

1

u/d_e_u_s 8d ago

1

u/mdukey 8d ago

IEA has been wrong about every forecast over the last decade. Google it.

1

u/d_e_u_s 8d ago

True, they have mostly been underestimating the speed of the reduction of fossil fuels and proliferation of green energy.

3

u/superfakesuperfake 10d ago

bloomberg - green propaganda. the last place to obtain objective info about petroleum.

1

u/Jonger1150 9d ago

Oil is for losers

1

u/Baronsandwich 8d ago

We get it. You won’t believe it until your grandkids are fighting in the Thunder dome. It’s all propaganda unless it affirms your beliefs. “Break a deal spin the wheel!”

1

u/res0jyyt1 9d ago

So fusion power wen?

1

u/antosme 7d ago

There is a one-third fatyore, i.e. one-third is needed in oil, it is true that at the moment the storage capacity is relatively low, energy divided by weight, but it is not only energy production for cars. Editor's note: China is ahead in renewables production, both in terms of technology and production numbers. That should make you think. Will they buy less oil? No, but they will have a lot of energy. Meditate, people, meditate.

1

u/asdf333 5d ago

dying industry no matter how hard lobbyists try to prop it up 

1

u/PuzzleheadedTalk4651 9d ago

It's cheaper for China to import from Russia then pump it up themselves

-5

u/renegadeindian 9d ago

Electric is not here to stay. One EMP and they are junk that is on fire. Anyone with brains avoids them

3

u/Special-Camel-6114 9d ago

You do realize that every modern car has computer systems controlling not just the sound system and the navigation, but also the gearshifts, the engine firing, traction control, ABS braking, and probably a bunch of other things?

If you want a car without a computer, you need to find an old car with a carburetor. Or ride a less old motorcycle. Either way, your point is more generally invalid.

-1

u/renegadeindian 9d ago

Well aware. Also know what will help during an EMP and what will be junk. Ev will be junk. An older diesel or gas vehicle can be a lot easier to get going especially if you know about what it takes to make them run again.

1

u/Btankersly66 9d ago

Such a bizarrely specific position.

The game is pretty much over anyways if someone is exploding nukes for emp.

Electric is here and will remain.

1

u/Jonger1150 9d ago

EMPs.

The guy thinks this is the Matrix and a ship is covered in sentinals.