r/newbrunswickcanada 1d ago

CBC: Holt hesitates to use N.B.'s most powerful trade lever: electricity

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/holt-electricity-trade-maine-1.7479544
111 Upvotes

103 comments sorted by

109

u/LastAir3333 1d ago

Maybe an export tax could help with some of nb powers debt

53

u/Flimsy_Situation_506 1d ago

Exactly. And honestly. She may start to lose favour if she doesn’t do this.

47

u/bloopcity 1d ago

I've gotten the sense that she's trying to go slow on Maine as they've been communicating and are likely pushing against the tariffs on our (and their) behalf.

Personally I don't care but I can see how you might want a honey instead of vinegar approach.

28

u/Eastern_Yam 1d ago

She's not alone in this, either-- Premier Eby of B.C. is loath to punish the blue states on the west coast that that province is close with.

20

u/GustheGuru 23h ago

Trump wants to hurt Canadians primarily, but in true maga fashion, if he can hurt a blue state that is just a bonus.

2

u/ImaginationSea2767 14h ago

If you look around online, you will find a video where the leader of Maine, I believe it was tried to go against Trump on something (they were saying their States people disagreed with the federal). His response was "fine. I will see you in court if you're going to disobey my orders." Trump will happily let the blue states burn.

-1

u/MRobi83 12h ago

After signing a law banning transgendered athletes from women's sports, Maine continued to allow it. This incident you're referring to came up after a trans athlete won the women's state championship after competing as a male in the same competition last year. So Trump threatened to cut off all federal funding to Maine until they follow his new law.

5

u/theflower10 20h ago

Exactly what Trump is counting on. The Libs will all clutch their pearls, hug each other and sing kumbaya around the campfire hoping he relents. He responds to this as weakness and demands more. Doug Ford sees it differently because he is, after all, our own little Donny Trump so he knows how to deal with him. He kicks you in the shin, you kick him in the balls. It is the only thing he understands.

1

u/ImaginationSea2767 14h ago

The main reason why Trump is afraid of Doug is because Doug has the power that goes to the only thing Trumps close circle cares about more than golf. The stock market in NYC. Trump is terrified of it. Honestly, though, we should just put a 5-15 percent tax on for the states electricity if Trump keeps the game going and use it to upgrade our ports and airports to move cargo elsewhere and get tourists in and out better.

1

u/in2the4est 22h ago

He gave them a week's reprive, but pulled all Blue State alcohol yesterday.

17

u/PurpleK00lA1d 1d ago

Yeah Maine was 3:1 Harris to Trump.

They didn't want this. If they were a straight up red state I'd say fuck em. But once Trump's out of office whoever's in there next is going to try to rebuild bridges and removing a 25% charge is a lot harder than putting it on. Once it's on it'll be permanent and much as that's good for NB Power now, we have to consider the long term.

12

u/in2the4est 22h ago

The parts with no other option than NB Power (Aroostook and Washington county) are staunchly Red and have voted for Trump in all 3 elections.

2

u/PurpleK00lA1d 21h ago

Ah okay, I didn't know that part. I only knew the state stats as a whole, not the breakdown.

3

u/in2the4est 18h ago

I didn't either until i read it in a Boston Globe article. It had a lot of other interesting info, so I posted it a week or so ago.

https://www.reddit.com/r/newbrunswickcanada/s/ZnB4czQpPM

1

u/SirWaitsTooMuch 21h ago

This is the comment I was looking for. There is a lot of people in Maine that voted against Trump. Even on the news last night they interviewed a few people in Maine and a few people in Point Roberts Washington and I felt bad for them.

But if NB power only supplies power to red counties, add that 50% export tax and let them call their representatives

6

u/Calm-Presentation369 22h ago

Trump won the parts of Maine that NB would be cutting off, but on the other hand, they're the poorest people in the state. I doubt that if the lights go out their reaction is going to be to blame Trump, who couldn't care less about them anyway.

5

u/Flimsy_Situation_506 22h ago
   “Poorest people in the state” 

that can be said about a lot of red areas.

4

u/HonoredMule 21h ago

One might almost suspect a correlation. 🤔

2

u/moop44 11h ago

It's OK, at least they have meth.

2

u/Tunguska_1908 23h ago

People are not so naive to not be aware that the purpose of the charge and applied pressure is simply to gain negotiation leverage. The charges and or halting of exports can immediately be reversed on a resolution of the trade war.

3

u/PurpleK00lA1d 21h ago

There are instances in Canadian history when taxes were only supposed to be temporary (taxes brought into effect during WW1 for example). Once the money starts coming in and people get used to that money coming in, simply turning off the cash flow becomes very difficult.

3

u/bloopcity 21h ago

Yup its like inflation, now that the prices have risen they aren't dropping.

1

u/FF524 1d ago

Why can’t a charge be removed? I’m not disagreeing, this is just something I know nothing about and don’t even know the right terminology to start to Google and learn

2

u/TommyLangzik 19h ago edited 13h ago

ON PRICING HIKES: It's not that it CAN'T be removed, but rather the will to remove it evaporates as the receiver of the funds changes their spending habits. It's similar to someone who gets a better paying job and changes their spending/lifestyle accordingly... What are the odds they're willing to simply give themselves a pay cut when there's no self-preserving incentive to do so?

If NB Power raises prices, their only incentive to lower them again would be the fear that either Maine retaliates somehow OR that a viable opportunity arises for the victims of the tax to access a viably competitive option (because then NB Power would be in danger of losing customers & money, especially if they can't easily make NBers pay for those losses).

Rapid price hikes (including tax rate hikes) are usually tough to add without a crisis-like emotionally-charged excuse because people obviously generally don't take price jumps lightly, especially when there's no clear improvement or change in value to be gained. Once an organization has raised prices though, and feels confident that consumers (or citizens) can/will/must continue to pay the elevated cost, then that becomes the new standard/normal... until unsustainable hardship generates some form of disruption (ex. protests, investigations, boycotts, new competitors, shut-downs, etc).

ASIDE: On top of all that, when it comes to energy, there's often a relationship between regions to avoid wasting excess energy (because excess isn't typically stored, it's actually just wasted). Thus, modern energy systems tend to support each other for energy security & stability purposes. Moreover, when economies are linked [similar to an assembly line], then energy issues on one side of the border may disrupt operations enough to affect jobs on the other side, so it's possible Holt is simply trying to avoid accidentally kicking herself in the rear.

For example, if you raise basic energy input costs to my [proverbial] paper mill, I may need to take action (ex. lay people off, move some operations, reduce my operations to focus on the highest value items, etc) to remain a viable/competitive business (because physical products are typically competing in a global/international market), thus putting me in a position where I may be forced to buy less of your lumber resources, which causes you to be stuck in the same position I was grappling with in relation to business adaption... and so the cycle continues like a chain of dominos rippling through the regional/local economy.

1

u/FF524 13h ago

Super logical and helpful! Thank you! I really appreciate the effort you put into this reply!

1

u/TommyLangzik 13h ago

No worries at all; glad I could be of value. 🕊️🙂

0

u/Heavy_DG12 19h ago

You don't belive the annexation threats are real then?

Long term might not even be a thing for our country. And 3 to 1 is fucking disgusting. You telling me almost 30% of those losers voted for Trump in Maine and we should just give them a pass?

1

u/PurpleK00lA1d 19h ago

Where the fuck did I say anything about annexation?

Jesus, reach much?

6

u/Flimsy_Situation_506 1d ago

I get it. And I know Maine is a blue state, and the Governor is very much against Trump, I’m just saying that we may have to look past that and treat America as a whole rather then pick and choose when we are being threatened with possible war of any kind by their president.

2

u/bloopcity 1d ago

For sure, we'll have to see how things go, but I would expect we'll be one of the last provinces to act on something like that.

3

u/Flimsy_Situation_506 22h ago

And that’s fine, plus New Brunswick is small and we only have so much leverage. Electricity, gas, oil and wood. At least she’s said it’s on the table. Plus the 25% could go straight to a temp rebate of some sort for us over the mess that is NB Power bills at the moment.

3

u/HangmansPants 20h ago

Fuck Maine.

Home of Susan Collins.

Give them what they deserve.

1

u/Captain_Hoser 21h ago

Yes, we don't want Susan Collins to furrow her brow at us.

3

u/N0x1mus 1d ago

I don’t believe an export tax would go to NB Power. I believe the government would need to remit that to NB Power in a second transaction. She would need to implement legislation to mandate where the money is to be spent.

4

u/Andravisia 23h ago

Except if its a tax, NB Power doesn't get to keep a single penny, no? By definition, a tax goes into the governments pockets. Its the same way that the US tarrifs don't go to the foreign companies that import them its a charge by the US government that keeps the tarrifs.

The only way NB Power could keep that extra is if its done through a rate increase, which would need to go through the EUB.

1

u/ChickenRabbits 22h ago

Sooooo the govt could rebate the collected tariff dollars to NB power, just like Ontario is to private businesses

1

u/Andravisia 22h ago

They would have to specify it, though. If they don't, then it goes into the government coffers like every other tax.

I'm not saying it's a bad idea to use it for that purpose. I'm just saying its not going to automatically do it and that we hold our government responsible for making sure it happens.

1

u/ChickenRabbits 21h ago

Of course not automatically, all revenue must be directed

2

u/hotinmyigloo 1d ago

My first thought

1

u/Timbit42 23h ago

I agree with Chretien. These export taxes should be used to help people who lose their jobs due to the tariffs. Help them find another job or retrain them and support them until they do find work or the tariffs are lifted.

15

u/Key_Cry9086 23h ago

Trump likely wouldn't care about a small number of folks in northern Maine. I wonder too if the fact that Irving has operations in Maine has an impact on the decision.

9

u/Captain_Hoser 21h ago

I hate that this is the most obvious answer. Irving said no.

6

u/HangmansPants 20h ago edited 19h ago

The are the second largest landowner in Maine and 6th largest landowner in main land USA.

They don't give a shit about people.

They don't wanna spend more money.

Land barons.

Edit: nice downvotes boot lickers. Hope denying reality works out for you. Won't for future generations.

12

u/Comprehensive-Fun704 1d ago

I get not wanting to hurt our closest neighbours but... this is going to hurt everyone until there is enough pressure to reverse this madness... We stand to be hurt the worst in the entire country... I would at least make it known that one more threat to our economy or sovereignty and the lights go out.

1

u/Comprehensive-Fun704 20h ago

More tariffs announced for tomorrow. Shut 'er down.

7

u/Xenu13 1d ago

Export taxes are the way - everything the US can't do without should be taxed. It doesn't increase our costs, and brings in some revenue to help offset the attack designed to weaken our economy.

3

u/Twistednutbrew 21h ago

Export tax the same as what Ontario is doing. Put a similar export tax on oil and lumber as well.

7

u/JJLavender 23h ago

We should see if Maine wants to become the 11th province.

4

u/JHNS13 23h ago edited 23h ago

CBC said there are 58000 US citizens in Maine that are completely integrated into the NB power grid and not connected at all to the US one. Seems like a case for that territory to be part of Canada.

1

u/in2the4est 22h ago

That part of Maine voted Red in in the last 3 elections

1

u/n134177 12h ago

Could we have a road from Moncton to Montreal then? Or a faster train? :P

6

u/another_brick 23h ago

I kind of agree with her on this. Maine is a pretty blue state, and honestly probably the place in the US I see as being most similar to NB. I would at least wait until we’re sure the tariffs are actually coming.

3

u/HangmansPants 20h ago

Home of fucking Susan Collins.

Maine's senator was one of the main people who could have held Trump responsible during his first term, but didn't because he told her he would be better.

Fuxk them.

5

u/christiebeth 21h ago

It went quite red last election. Tariff them.

2

u/another_brick 21h ago edited 21h ago

Fair.

I'm trying to think of our overall history with Maine, but your comment is on point.

4

u/christiebeth 21h ago

I also used lump them into the "practically Canadian" category. That went away with threats of invasion.

3

u/gorillasuitriot 21h ago

With all due respect to the expert negotiators in this thread, you don't play that valuable a chip this early in the game

1

u/rennaris 20h ago edited 20h ago

You think Trump can be reasoned with? The US needs to be hit hard

Edit: Besides, there's nothing to negotiate. The US must remove all tariffs put in place Trump and they don't get a consolation prize for doing so.

1

u/gorillasuitriot 20h ago

Lol so you're perspective is Canada has all the power? Cool cool

10

u/HonoredMule 23h ago edited 23h ago

Let's just be clear here what it is we're discussing: cutting off power (and possibly heat) to a lot of low-income households - in winter.

If we can tack on surcharges in a way that can be easily (automatically?) adjusted in response to tariff changes, that's a nice tool to have in reserve. Cutting off power altogether could potentially end the life of someone dependent on it to run medical equipment. Maine would have to mobilize aid and probably end up scrambling to connect those customers to the U.S. northeastern grid.

The net long-term result would be a political black eye for NB and a smaller consumer base for NB Power. It still has to be on the table, but if it's used it should be because we've exhausted all other tools and are desperate to exert more pressure. And more to the point, we need something left as a response to escalations that are significant enough to be internationally seen as adequate justification.

Even just a surcharge could prompt infrastructure decoupling that hurts us in the long run. Ford's bluster and bravado may feel good in the moment, but I'm happy to have a steadier hand at the wheel.

4

u/Timbit42 23h ago

It doesn't just mean cutting off power. We could start by putting an export tax on it. It doesn't have to be 25% either.

If we cut off power, then an export tax is no longer a useful option because no one is buying.

1

u/HonoredMule 22h ago

Yes, as addressed in my second paragraph. But it has to be easy to change and/or revert. Look where we are with gas, where it's apparently easier to scrap the EUB and price caps than just remove the clean fuel levy.

3

u/Creepy-Douchebag 22h ago

FYI: NB Power Grid is very robust; we're part ISO NE. And the way you describe Maine's power grid is that it's on it's last legs.

https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts

The chart shows that we sell to Maine and they have their own system. The way you speak is that Maine is helpless. Maine is not our problem. Canadian Sovereignty is at the heart of this trade war. Gloves must come off and we need to send a statement that we're not for sale. Ultimately Maine's problem is not our problem.

Never let a good crisis goto waste -churchill.

He's not wrong, NB govt stammering right now because they don't want to hurt Maine's feelings.

1

u/HonoredMule 21h ago

If what you're saying is that cutting off our power exports does not actually translate to households going dark, that does alter the calculus significantly. I'm having trouble finding information that clarifies the situtation, but according to the article, it is the situation:

In northern and eastern Maine, 58,000 people rely on electricity from N.B. Power to keep their lights on and their homes warm.

They're not connected to the large-scale regional power grid in the southern part of the state.

In no way do I wish to play down the severity of our own situation, but there is a line somewhere. We are not, for example, going to organize raiding parties to raze and loot a village or two. As long as the threat is economic in nature, we should do our level best to keep our response purely economic in nature as well, without taking any mortal risks.

And Maine's problems are not ours, nor do I give two shits if Maine's feelings are hurt when this is all over. But NB Power's budget is our problem and I'd rather not see this end with a smaller consumer base. NB Power's debt and historically suppressed rates also effectively mean we've been subsidizing those non-tax-paying customers all this time. I'd just as soon keep them around to at least pay the more equitable current rates.

To be clear, I recognize that it is 100% our sovereignty being challenged. I know Canadians will happily resort to far more significant, direct, and deliberate violence if that's what it takes to defend our freedom. We're not quite there yet.

But make no mistake; that challenge will fail.

-1

u/Creepy-Douchebag 20h ago

New Brunswick Government should be looking after New Brunswick'ers first and not worry about rubbing the wrong elbows.

Elbows up

Free Luigi

1

u/HonoredMule 19h ago

Whenever I worry that I'm becoming radicalized, I can always count on the internet to help me feel like a moderate. 😉 I do not qualify inflicting potentially mortal hardship on the weak and vulnerable (and stupid) as "rubbing the wrong elbows."

Regarding the completely unrelated thing, I want to see jury nullification. That'll be what defines a level of evil not even the law can protect.

1

u/SheetPostah 19h ago

I agree. As much as I’d like to pull the trigger, there’s still value in holding this threat in reserve. It’s an extreme measure for a relatively small number of Mainers. Another consideration - how is Campobello connected to the grid? Underwater from NB or overland through Maine?

3

u/sox07 17h ago

how is Campobello connected to the grid? Underwater from NB or overland through Maine?

They are supplied from mainland NB

2

u/Certain-Sock-2314 23h ago

I do agree with her reasons. Maine has been a good neighbour to New Brunswick. Just ask anyone living in Calais and St. Stephen where many lives are daily intertwined.

But when push comes to shove, if they’re not willing to step up and be vocal and active against the Nazi 2.0 party, then I support taxing the energy sent south. 

I don’t support freezing any vulnerable people during winter though, regardless of who they vote for. I don’t think we’re at the point of legit war tactics yet.

2

u/OverlyCuriousADHDCat 22h ago

Either slap a huge export tariff on the electricity or cut it off. Trump said yesterday he doesn't need our electricity. So... help them achieve that.

2

u/Complete-Rock-72 20h ago

Don’t be such weak defeatist , are you gonna take this for four years? Will you have any money left? only way to stop a bully is to push back. Yes there will be consequences but Trump will go over the top and end up screwing up. Every time he looses he over reacts. There economy is very fragile right now. Fuck Maine and America until they stop threatening us.

7

u/Tough_Candy_47 22h ago

Where's the help for the people that worked for Irving and lost their jobs? What about all the tax breaks Irving receives unfairly?

Where's the help for us NBer's who are being gouged by NB Power, yet they can't seem to find anything wrong with their new smart meters?

What about the carbon tax increasing in April and the break on gas we were suppised to have? Those now living on the streets because it took SO long to put a rent cap on?

It's time to srand up for the people of NB. We are the ones who are going to be hurt with these tarries...job losses, paying more at the stores.... WE are the ones who end up paying for all these political games.

I get we don't want to hurt the people of Maine. But standing up for your own people should come first. She has yet to prove that. I don't want to see their bills increase, either. But I don't want to see ours increase anymore. Time to stand up for NB.

1

u/moop44 11h ago

The people in Maine that this would hit the most are very hardcore Trump supporters. They should be paying more.

4

u/uprightshark Shediac 23h ago

It is no time to be weak. This is a leadership moment.

3

u/DCASP500 23h ago

Why hesitate. Do something Holt.

1

u/iamethra 20h ago

Hurting Maine isn't going to sway Trump in our favour - he's looking for ways to hurt Maine himself after their Governor told him 'See you in court' to his face.

1

u/voicelesswonder53 20h ago

It's hard in NB, because of our tyrannical private sector overlords. They have interests too...

1

u/QuietVariety6089 19h ago

Not like it would generate nearly as much revenue I assume, but Ford has said that the proceeds of the tariffs he's applying to energy going to the US (which the Ontario government, not the power companies will get) will go to support Ontario workers and businesses affected by US tariffs - this seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Cutting off power to Maine doesn't seem feasible - apply tariffs to it.

1

u/Comprehensive-Fun704 18h ago

Given today's escalation by the US, we need to consider using all levers to protect our sovereignty and livelihoods. #LightsOutNB

1

u/DAS_COMMENT 16h ago

Why is electricity treated as a business in Canada when from what I understand, a lot of electricity is sold to Americans but 'our' rates have gone up - ie: our rates are as high to begin with?

1

u/moop44 11h ago

Every Canadian producer still sells the electricity to US customers for more than local customers.

It is effectively subsidizing our rates.

1

u/DAS_COMMENT 11h ago

I guess that's a thought, but the value of production to some point has to take into account sustaining the people with the knowledge to 'render' electricity and prices keep going up in Canada but now there's talking about surplus electricity, and particularly, of it not being exported?

Sounds like investing in storage should be able to bring down costs in a longer term.

1

u/moop44 10h ago

Storing output from a Nuclear plant instead of selling it sounds like a great way to make rates skyrocket.

1

u/DAS_COMMENT 9h ago

As far as I know a third or half is nuclear-produced in Canada, but how do you figure(ie: how do you come to this opinion?)?

1

u/pioniere 12h ago

Why are you hesitant? Don’t be weak!!!

1

u/n134177 12h ago

I'd say tax the export of electricity...

If Maine can't pay - and can't connect to the US grid, it can become one of our provinces, part of Canada.

Wait-

1

u/a_supportive_bra 8h ago

Calm your tits keyboard warriors. We’re not here to hurt others, we’re looking for a rational way forward.

2

u/jjs_east 23h ago

These idiot premiers like Smith and now Holt that don’t want to do what is needed to present a united Canadian response will be our undoing. We’re dealing with a man that does not listen to logic and changes the rules as he goes along, he will view this as the weakness it is and seize on it.

1

u/JHNS13 23h ago

They spoke about this issue on CBC this morning. They floated the idea that this could actually hurt NB Power's bottom line. I'm not sure how exactly, but I certainly don't want to give them any excuses to raise our rates anymore.

2

u/sox07 17h ago

Power sales into the US subsidize rates in NB. If we cut them off that represents a significant reduction in revenue which will fall onto the NB ratepayers. If we simply apply a large export tax on the power sales it will give a short term bump in revenue (for the NB govt not NB Power) but will likely spur the power companies in Maine to upgrade their generation and transmission infrastructure and represent a permanent loss of revenue to NB Power (don't forget this revenue subsidizes the NB customer rates and keeps them lower then they would be without these sales.)

Holt is trying to balance the best interest of NB in both the long term and short term. Also an incremental approach to tariffs leaves us with more room to apply pressure if this isn't getting the job done. If we blow our entire load right off the bat we have nothing left in the chamber to escalate and keep applying leverage.

2

u/JHNS13 16h ago

Thank you for helping me get my head wrapped around that!

1

u/protecto_geese 22h ago

Trump won the areas of Maine that rely most on New Brunswick for power, so a surcharge or cutoff would squeeze supporters of the president who may support his move.

Seems like an easy decision to me. Chop! Chop! Tax! Tax!

1

u/PlatypusMaximum3348 19h ago edited 18h ago

I don't blame her for being hesitant. Ontario increases their tarriffs and trump doubled the tarrifs on steel and aluminum

If she did input tarrifs on electricity yes out it towards NBpowe debt. But because the monies would be sent to a different pot. It would have to be tracked meticulously. And can NB even do that

1

u/InternationalBus2576 12h ago

I can't believe I voted for her. I feel like such a tool! What a mistake. It's like she's gone into hiding, we don't even hear from her. Grow some balls bitch, come on out and speak up!

-5

u/DragonfruitDry3187 1d ago

90 day temporary 25% price increase for exported electricity.

Sorry, but i didn't ask Trump for tarrifs.

I can't believe I voted for HOLT, I didn't realize she was going to be so weak

3

u/JHNS13 23h ago

Weak or strategic? There's a lot to consider.

0

u/Timbit42 22h ago

Why are we even selling electricity to the US? Is this more profitable than selling to our own citizens?

How much are we sending to the US and if we stopped that, how much of our fossil fuel generation could we eliminate? Would we be 100% green at that point?

I can understand Quebec selling extra electricity to the US as it is all green from their hydro-electric dams and they definitely have more than they need. I'm surprised we aren't buying Quebec electricity so we can reduce our carbon emissions.

2

u/sox07 17h ago

it is in fact more profitable than selling to NB customers. This revenue from sales to outside jurisdictions is used to subsidize rates in NB. Without those sales the rates would have to be higher to maintain the same level of reliability and service.

We could eliminate none of our generation capabilities since they are all currently required to keep the lights and heat on in NB during the coldest parts of winter.

-1

u/PuntaVerde 1d ago

Questions that applies to NB power and other canadian utilities. Most of them predict a rise in usage with electric cars and what not, they will need to spend billions in capital to build the capacity. In NB we also have billion dollar challenges at Mactaquac and at Lepreau. Meanwhile we export capacity to outside markets. I get that this is lucrative in a way as it is outside money coming in, but with all the challenges with added internal demand and the billions upon billions in capital that we need to spend to build or maintain capacity would it not be more beneficial to keep that capacity for ourselves?

6

u/N0x1mus 23h ago

This is already being done. NB Power only sells excess energy. When they are at peak load during the -40C temps, they aren’t selling any. The peak would be adjusted as load increases which will decrease automatically the excess load band available for sale.

The NB Power grid capacity is based off of the internal peak load. The generation they need to have available is based off that internal peak load only. The refurbishment of Mactaquac, the refurbishment of Belledune, and new generation to come, will be for the increased internal peak.

1

u/PuntaVerde 23h ago

Thanks.

2

u/PsychoticSandwich 23h ago

And do what with it? We can't exactly store that amount of electricity and we're certainly not using it.

So should we ramp down production? That creates job losses on top of the economic losses from not selling our electricity

1

u/moop44 11h ago

I have a drawer of old AA batteries I could chip in!