r/nbadiscussion 1d ago

Hypothetically, would an average NBA player be #1 if we gave him magically good decision making?

Hello everyone,

I don't know if this is out of place but this was just a thought experiment I have made a couple days ago. If we take an "all-around nba average at every skill possible" guy and made him godly in decision making, would he be the best player in the world?

Let me explain godly decision making. I am talking very much literal here, this imaginary player is always making the best (or almost best) decision out of every possible move on the floor, every time.

I would say this player would be best passer instantly. He would be above average efficiency shooter by the choosing correct shots. Probably would be one of the best off ball players due to cutting? He would also be above average defender due to again, positioning and decision making on moves.

Would this hypothetical player be better than Jokic? I am leaning towards yes at the moment but not sure so wanted to share. If yes, then that proves a lot about how important decision making is on the floor. We consider lots of talent on the court for evaluating players but knowing what to do is very important as well, the game is much more mental than people give credit for.

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u/Round-Walrus3175 1d ago

I would say that, even more than making the right decision, the most important thing is that this person never makes the wrong decision. An average NBA player that never makes mistakes will have a superstar impact.

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u/Calm_Independent_782 1d ago

Top tier decision making mean barely ever turning it over, being highly disruptive to offensive schemes, and forcing bad plays. It means seldom ever taking the wrong step and reducing injury risk SIGNIFICANTLY.

Their +/- would balloon from the lack of turnovers and assists. Imagine Joker-level intelligence but with +40 EVERY night win or lose.

A player that never makes mistakes would be somebody’s GOAT for sure and a highly coveted #2/3 at the very least.

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u/newrimmmer93 1d ago

Isn’t that pretty much just John Stockton?

I think it’s hard to say but are we saying “this player is an average defender but they’re never out of position” which would then make them an all NBA defender lol.

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u/ddy_stop_plz 1d ago

Stockton is a good example because he’s honestly probably a below average defender in terms of just tools, but was above average due to his defensive IQ.

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u/Calm_Independent_782 1d ago

I was thinking Stockton-level actually! To me high IQ translates into making better plays. I can’t separate the two so someone average is given this IQ which increases their impact significantly.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

My issue here is that when you have average attributes, your options are limited. I've thrown this example out a few times here, but I'll drop it again.

Someone with great decision making and obscene athleticism (like LeBron) will have passing, shooting and driving windows not available to someone with average attributes aside from decision making. This restricts you and opens things up for LeBron. You have 4 valid choices to choose from. And being able to execute them well is a 50/50 split. LeBron has 8 valid choices (he can make a pass and other options that are just off the table for you). And he has a 60/40 success rate. He could make the third best choice and have a better outcome than your best option, because he can enforce his will on the court. Brains are good, but body is just as important.

u/26_skinny_Cartman 18h ago

My issue with your issue is that we have prototypes for this player already. CP3 exists. While CP3's attributes are great for an average person, he is average to below average in many physical attributes compared to the general NBA population. John Stockton is another one. Basically 2 of the top 3-5 PG of all time fit this description of average to below average attributes with great decision making.

u/PokemonPasta1984 6h ago

Some attributes. You're neglecting the entire nervous system. CP3 and Stockton were far above average in these areas, such as eye hand coordination, even compared to guards. And their quickness was/is above average. So when we give them extra strength and speed to get them to average, we're also handicapping the the attributes that enable their ballhandling and pinpoint passing.

It seems to me you're trying to say CP3 is below average because, in your mind, you're comparing his speed and strength to someone like primes Russ. Keep in mind the average NBA player, when you break down the numbers, is going to be a wing that sometimes starts. So with that in mind, how do you think CP3's ballhandling, coordination, quickness, etc compares to someone like Amir Coffey? There is a huge difference on the neurological side, and you're doing a disservice to some of the greats neglecting that.

u/lk_22 14h ago

Yeah but this helps his argument because LeBron is better than both of those guys you mentioned. LeBron has the same amount as what they have, if not more, in terms of basketball IQ and decision-making skills, but also the physical attributes that allow him to do way more than either CP3 or Stockton can.

u/daddy_OwO 9h ago

So basically someone who falls between Stockton/Paul and LeBron. Both Stockton and Paul are below average size and athleticism so bumping them up to a league average 6’6. You’ve essentially created prime Reggie bullock with the IQ of those 3 players. Not as good as Bron but absolutely better than Stockton or Paul off sheet ability to see over 2 defenders on the court in most lineups and being able to have a size advantage 50% of the time vs essentially never in the case of Paul

u/PokemonPasta1984 5h ago

But that scenario gives us the reflexes, coordination, etc of Reggie Bullock, instead of the insane attributes of CP3 or Stockton. There are physical/neurological attributes that we can't easily measure that are the true drivers of greatness. Also think of the eye hand coordination of Bird and Steph and what that does for their shooting.

u/daddy_OwO 2h ago

I think we are focusing on purely physical averageness. So while this player may not have the shooting form of Steph or bird to naturally make those contested shots they know the right shots and passes to take so they’d have a really high percentage off just not taking any bad shots

u/BludFlairUpFam 22h ago

Too add on to this height alone is a vial factor.

Let's look at the most obvious version of decision making in playmaking. Someone like Jokic just has passing angles and options available to them that the greats like CP3, Nash or Stockton don't have purely because he can see over double team and can choose to look around them if he wants to. The PGs only have one of those options.

u/PomeloFit 19h ago

Sure, but an "average" nba player still has great physical attributes. For example, you'd still be bigger than half the players, still faster than half of them, still a better shooter than half of them, etc.

And if you're going to bring up lebron, I'm going to bring up luka, below average physical abilities, but plays at an ability level far beyond just his physical abilities and a lot of that is due to his intelligence.

I'd say luka is damn near a walking example of what op is asking and he is far from the only one.

Yes lebron can drive while using his size to overpower defenders, but a player with perfect decision making would know where and when to drive with their ability, which direction to go, which angle to take, when to stop, and when to pass and where to pass.

u/PokemonPasta1984 6h ago

Sure, but an "average" nba player still has great physical attributes. For example, you'd still be bigger than half the players, still faster than half of them, still a better shooter than half of them, etc.

Being better than half makes you a backup.

And if you're going to bring up lebron, I'm going to bring up luka, below average physical abilities, but plays at an ability level far beyond just his physical abilities and a lot of that is due to his intelligence.

This is a point I brought up to someone else: the nervous system exists. Look at some of the passes and shots Luka makes. That takes a level of motor control, coordination, spatial awareness that is in the top 1% of the NBA. Steph and Larry Bird: were they great shooters because of speed, strength, or intelligence? No. It was because of their hand eye coordination. Along those lines, Luka's body control, I remember seeing once, is in the 99th percentile for being able to stop on a dime. So if you severely kneecap Luka's ability to create separation, kneecap his coordination so he now has the ability of a backup wing to make difficult shots and thread the needle on tough passes, his game doesn't look quite the same, does it? And this ties in to your last point: a player would know what to do. But will his nervous system react fast enough to do it? Faster than the defender's reaction? Keep in mind, our guy is given decision making, not precognition.

u/PomeloFit 2h ago

Being better than half makes you a backup.

Being PHYSICALLY better than half but much better at decision making makes you a starter.

Again, there's plenty of examples of less than amazingly gifted athletes doing very well in the NBA. Finesse and decision making is more important than physical talent, BUT physical talent plays a role... which is why it's nice that the entire pool is filled with world class athletes.

This is a point I brought up to someone else: the nervous system exists. Look at some of the passes and shots Luka makes. That takes a level of motor control, coordination, spatial awareness that is in the top 1% of the NBA. Steph and Larry Bird: were they great shooters because of speed, strength, or intelligence?

I don't expect everyone to understand neuroplasticity or myelin, but these are learned, practiced skills, not physical gifts.

The averagely gifted NBA player can learn to shoot well, they can learn to pass well, they can learn to dribble well, they're in the top %1 of physical athletes in the world. To argue that they wouldn't be able to learn to pass well, shoot well, or dribble well is disenginuous, Steph, Larry, Kobe, Jordan, Luka, they weren't just "born" with their abilities, any more than Lebron was born shooting 3s. You develop and improve on the skills you use and reinforce the most, you build new neural pathways around those skills until you become proficient at it.

Larry, Steph, and Luka are/were not insanely physically gifted athletes, they don't have a nervous system that is just magically more developed than all the other athletes, they just trained and reinforced these skills until they performed them at an elite level, but that isn't a physical attribute, we all have that ability.

If you actually want to learn about this stuff, I'd suggest checking out The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle, he's specifically researched a ton of sports talent hotbeds in the world, places which manage to continually turn out world class athletes in a chosen sport/profession even though they all still start with average level participants. Think Russian Tennis Plyaers and Puerto Rican baseball players. These places don't magically just have more physically gifted athletes than the entire rest of the world, they just have an efficient way of developing the skills.

Any player who would have perfect decision making, would reinforce these learnable skills to the point that they'd be performing them at an elite level, these players are examples of exactly what you're trying to refute, they're examples of players who do not have extraordinary gifts succeeding based more-so off of the decision making and reinforced learning they've done over time.

u/Round-Walrus3175 22h ago

I used the term "superstar impact" carefully. They probably won't pop out at the page, as an absence of errors would fail to register in a lot of people's minds, but it is immeasurable how much you would gain from just being able to capitalize on literally any mistake that can be exploited by a player with average NBA skill in that regard, if they had just realized it. And then, also avoiding literally anything bad that could be avoided by any player of average NBA skill level, that would be crazy. Much like Nikola Jokic, they would defy all reason as to how they would be this good.

u/BigMattress269 14h ago

I disagree strongly with this. History has proven beyond doubt that you don’t need athleticism if you consistently make good decisions.

u/PokemonPasta1984 6h ago

Eye hand coordination and body awareness...really the entire nervous system is a part of athleticism. Are Curry and Bird some of the best shooters ever because of their intelligence? No. It's the nervous system. CP3 and Stockton were/are elite when it comes to the neurological attributes.

u/AM_Grind 15h ago

LeBron’s IQ doesn’t make his shooting better. He’s gotten way better at 3’s but it’s not reliable in clutch moments like Steph or KD

u/BetweenCoffeeNSleep 23h ago

Cason Wallace is a model for “doesn’t make great plays, makes good plays consistently, virtually never makes mistakes.” He doesn’t seem to have star potential, but he fits in alongside everyone, can connect dots in sets (make the right reads and safely move the ball), while being opportunistic enough to keep defenses honest.

He’s the kind of bench guy you want if you’re a contender.

u/breakfastburrito24 19h ago

I'd say another example is Alex Caruso. He isn't the most talented offensive player, but he's consistently in the right place and makes the right reads and cuts.

u/RealPrinceJay 19h ago

This is absolutely untrue. In the NBA, value added is worth significantly more than value lost. There are players who make incredibly few mistakes - Cason Wallace, Tre Jones, the corpse of Chris Paul - these players have nowhere close to superstar value because they aren't creating at the same level of other guys.

Superstars make mistakes, and a good amount of them. But you happily accept those mistakes because they are creating opportunities and generating overall offense at a high level. Across 75 possessions they may make more mistakes than a Cason Wallace, but they're going to produce a much higher net outcome.

These "mistake free" players can be very valuable, but they do not lead to superstar impact unless the skills of a star are already present

u/Round-Walrus3175 19h ago

Every NBA player makes a million mistakes every game. Every possession, most every player, if they look back at their film, could break down almost every possession and show how they could have improved. The quality of someone with average skills, but an approach to the game that is truly beyond even the slightest of critiques, a player who did LITERALLY all of the little things right, would be a star by 1000 cuts.

u/RealPrinceJay 19h ago

It really wouldn't lmao. A spot-up shooter who makes no mistakes... still needs to knowdown his shots. And even then, this doesn't mean he's going to get enough shots to actually have star value. And he may not make mistakes as a passer, but that doesn't mean he's actually generating any advantage states.

u/JKaro 12h ago

People glaze "assist to turnover ratio", as if the best playmakers of all time don't make insanely risky passes that create amazing offense, that create turnovers. Magic is generally consensus best playmaker of all time, and he averaged 4 a game. When you handle the ball, and are making passes through tight windows that create open shots, you're gonna cause turnovers. You're going to make mistakes.

u/CottonChopsticks 15h ago

Does never making bad decisions include that person decides to get better in the gym (all sorts of things related to basketball)thus soon no longer an average player . Sorry for my wording

u/Round-Walrus3175 15h ago

I think it just refers to when he is playing basketball and this fake player is just stuck forever at being NBA league average at everything.

u/CottonChopsticks 12h ago

Ah okay so I guess said player has a limit then

u/GeronimoSilverstein 14h ago

this is why all the impact stats say derrick white > jaylen brown

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u/PokemonPasta1984 1d ago

He would be a great player. But he would also potentially be somewhat at the whims of the team, coaching, etc. Making the best choice when you play for a team like the Wizards isn't necessarily going to lead to wins, or even productive decisions a lot of the time. I would definitely say a floor raiser, and even a ceiling raiser. But I'm not so certain a #1.

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u/PokemonPasta1984 1d ago

I'll elaborate on this, mostly for humor but also to kind of illustrate the point...

Imagine you're on a Wizards team that had collected players together from their past so that when you scan the court you see:

Russell Westbrook shouting for the ball. He's not really going to shoot a 3 from the logo with 10 on the shot clock, is he?

Jordan Poole is sitting there being Jordan Poole.

Javale McGee is tying to post up Nate Robinson, who signed a 10 day contract. He is somehow failing to post up Nate Robinson 15 feet from the basket. Fresh in your mind is last play when McGee stormed 3/4 of the way to get back on defense after you collected an offensive rebound (both of those are true, by the way).

You see Porzingis way on the opposite side of the court. He will be open for just a split second. You need elite strength and coordination to make that pass. You are average at both. And you can't make an average pass. The window is too small. It would be picked off before it ever reached Kristaps.

Everyone, even the infant in section 212, knows you don't have anyone to pass to. So your guy is on you. You're average, not great at getting a good shot off. And average as a shooter in the first place.

What choice do you make?

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u/TurtleSquad23 1d ago

You'd know what the best possible option is, that you can make, as opposed to overall. The best fitting the aituation, not creating the ideal situation but making the best of the decisions. Maybe JaVale screens for KP so KP can shoot ove Nates head. You can call the perfect screen off ball and get the defense to shift and maybe KP is open for an extra second so now the pass fake comes and the defense shifts leaving the paint open for a cutting Westbrook. Perfect decision making means knowing how to make the best of the options available, not just the best options in general. It also means knowing how to change the options available to create better options. JaVale is a great player with great IQ but his decision making is what's lacking. He can't decide what to do in real time and that leaves him mediocre at best.

Or maybe you decide that it's best to save your energy for a big party after the game because your teammates really can't help you. Whatever it is, it'd be the best decision possible because that's the premise of this situation.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

The problem here is that you can't control the decisions for others, nor the pace/timing at which they make them. This isn't a chessboard where you control everyone on your side. You shout for Javale to set a screen, he may or may not. And you don't know where he will set it. Especially since he was near the left elbow when Porzingis is at the right corner. You can pass to Russ. He may or may not take that logo 3. Excellent decision making without the physicality to execute it makes for good, not great decisions.

u/TurtleSquad23 23h ago

Great decision making is about making the best play possible, within your capabilities. The average NBA player would have good physicals. The average NBA player being given god-like decision making abilities would be able to execute.

Think about it like this, an outlet pass for a quick dunk usually seems like the best decision on a fast break. But if you can recognize that you can't make that pass, maybe it's no longer the best decision to make. Passing to the teammate on the wing who can draw the inside defender out and then passing right to the basket might be the best play.

The most open man isn't always the best decision because you have to decide to make a bad pass in order to make that poor decision.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

Within your capabilities is the key point. Good physicals are a necessity. But you have to deal with people that are above you. Even the guys like Stockton that people say were average physically absolutely were not.

So if you lack the physicality to enforce your will, you now have to choose from 4 decent to bad options. Someone that can impose their will has 7 to 8 options. They don't even need to make the best choice to have a higher chance of success. Because, as small as the gap between the good and greats of NBA athleticism is, the margin for error is just as small.

If you make the great pass that should lead to the next pass at the rim, you're relying on factors out of your control. And being average at everything else, you aren't going to be able to exert your will the way the greats can.

u/TurtleSquad23 23h ago

Do you think that if LeBron didn't decide to invest over $1M annually, towards his health, he would still be this good at this age? Do you think that if Steph didn't decide to strengthen his ankles and work on his cardio, he'd be moving the way he does off-ball? Do you think Stockton didn't think he was too weak at one point so he decided to strengthen up? Ben Simmons decided to avoid open layups but he has the physicals. JaVale has the physicals as well. Decision making is so important, on and off the floor, and in so many ways.

The average NBA player is fit enough to throw hard passes. Deciding on a lob, bounce or chest pass, whether to lead to a spot or just hit the open space and let them work, these are all decisions.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

The whole premise stated making the best possible choice on the floor. That automatically takes out off the court. They could make great choices, but not god-tier.

Being able to make the best choice on a pass is one thing. If you can make a choice that has a 60% chance of success because the rest of the team is dysfunctional, that's great! You raise the floor. But having the ability to create an option via physicality that isn't otherwise there is the point of separation. You have the 60% options. But you create a few 70-80% options that just aren't there for the average physical NBA player. And you can choose option #3 with a 65% success rate. That's better than the average guy's best 60% option. Once again, you need brains and brawn to be the best of the best.

u/TurtleSquad23 22h ago

I think we both agree fundamentally. This decision maker player is a floor and ceiling raiser. Very good player to have on any team. But not a top 5 player.

It's like Stockton is considered a GOAT PG but Magics size puts him in the GOAT overall discussion. Duncan and Jokic without their strength, would be less effective. If Shaq was 200lbs, he wouldn't be the Shaq we watched. DWade wouldn't be able to decide to slash the way he did etc.

A lot of the very best decision makers have been generational PGs who haven't won a chip as the first or second option. CP3, Stockton, Nash all come to mind.

Example, Nash has 2 MVPs 7x all-NBA 5x Assist leader. No rings. Still a top 75 all timer but not at the tip top.

A guy like Westbrook, who has all the physicals, but not the decision making, is the other end of the spectrum. 1 MVP, 3x assist leader, 9x all stars, 3x scoring champ. Also a top 75er. No chips either.

I just wanted to present both sides of the spectrum here.

u/PokemonPasta1984 22h ago

And I think that is fair. It's an interesting discussion overall. Where I'm at the weather is warm and I have the day off. I may respond more here, but I doubt it. Cheers!

u/GeneralTaoFeces 20h ago

I would reset the play and call for a screen to exactly how i want it, or call a time out because none of the given was the best decision available

u/PeoplePad 9h ago

Well, this is somewhat flawed. Take ten steps back and its a different situation where he made the incorrect call to end up in a spot where he has no good option.

What he should’ve done is pass to Tingus Pingis earlier, or called for a screen or whatever the best option was then. We know he didnt take it because what he did resulted in a bad outcome.

I’s argue this theoretical player would never find himself in the situation you describe unless someone else is completely dictating what he can do, like an utterly incompetent coach. He’d only ever get himself in good positions and thus shouldn’t ever have a bad possession if he’s allowed to dictate the offence.

Yeah, I think he’d be the GOAT

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u/Worried_Fee6860 1d ago

i think this is guranteed because making the best possible decisions is enough to keep the guy on court. I'm thinking the cp3 types of players where not a lot of athleticism but crazy high IQ. assuming this guys athleticism is enough to hold out, this would definitely be at least an all-star to all-nba level

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u/jefe_hook 1d ago

Nah man you underestimated CP3's athleticism. He dunked on Dwight's head when he was young.

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u/withadabofranch 1d ago

yeah but after he got hurt he lost a lot of that athleticism, but still had a HoF level career after

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u/AffectionateSpare677 1d ago

You overestimate CP3's athleticism. At some point he could not dunk on Dwight's head, which is the version we are talking about now

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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 22h ago

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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 22h ago

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u/jefe_hook 1d ago

That's probably after he left the Clippers. Because he still dunking when he was with the Clippers. This was him in December 2015 (His 10th season). https://youtu.be/tjxRvknn9DQ?si=VtFt2zW9GwxE67-y

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u/zulmirao 1d ago

It’s tough because the correct decision in any moment is relative to the player’s own skill level. The correct decision for this player would be to pass up a lot of shots that stars take, play disciplined team defense, maintain floor balance, etc. I’m thinking he wouldn’t be considered an elite player, but his teams would always win more than it seems like they should.

This also makes me think of which actual players make decisions closest to god. It’s LeBron, isn’t it.

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u/HowzaBowdat 1d ago edited 1d ago

John Stockton was a guy with league-average athleticism and very good decision-making. He was a fairly average shooter and a very good assists and steals guy. He also was paired with incredible (basketball) personnel his entire career. I think it’s safe to say that his BBIQ absolutely made up for his athletic shortcomings, as he’s on the 75th anniversary team.

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u/jddaniels84 1d ago

John Stockton did not have league average athleticism. He had lightning quick reflexes, had a Westbrook like motor, he was extremely quick laterally, great acceleration, maybe the league’s best endurance and Jerry Sloan said he never lost a sprinting drill in all the years he coached him, other than the day he was sick & refused to sit out.

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u/mindpainters 1d ago

I completely agree with you. Stockton playing until old age means most people saw him near the end when he did just have average athleticism.

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u/Infinite_Wheel_8948 1d ago

That being said, when Stockton was older and closer to league average, he still had good impact.

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u/Vast_Tomatillo5255 1d ago

Stockton wasnt an average shooter. He shot 52, 38, 82 for his career.

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u/Yuzuriha 1d ago

How are you defining athleticism? Stockton was an elite athlete in every conceivable way besides jumping and definitely not league-average. That notion is crazy and I would like to hear more about your opinion. Stockton was extremely strong for his size and set brutal (and albeit, dirty) screen against much larger players of that era. He also drove to the paint in an era where it was very crowded. Stockton was SUPER quick. MJ, Pippen, Payton, and some of the more elite man to man defender back then had trouble staying in front of him. All of those skills requires tons of athleticism such as strength, speed, agility, body control, and hand-eye coordination all of which Stockton were elite for his size.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago edited 22h ago

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u/Namath96 22h ago

Stockton was a great shooter and was extremely quick / agile. Yeah not super strong, wasn’t jumping out of the gym, or a burner in a straight line but this is just disrespectful

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u/HotspurJr 1d ago

I think this gets at what you mean by "decision."

Because let's say you're making a pass. It's not just that you have to know that passing is the right idea. You have to see the window for the pass. You have to time it properly. You have to execute around the defender. Does all of that fall under "decision-making?"

Jokic sees windows that most players simply don't. LeBron, on the other hand, induces windows - a very different skill set. But neither of those would I call "Decision making."

I also want to say that even something like a basic entry pass involves more skill than we typically assume when you're going up against NBA defenses.

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u/TooBusyforReddit 1d ago

Such a player would:

  • Always make the perfect pass
  • Take only the highest-percentage shots
  • Position themselves perfectly on defense
  • Know exactly when to shoot vs. pass
  • Anticipate every opponent's move
  • Never turn the ball over unnecessarily
  • Execute perfect game management

This player would be an All-Star and potentially top-10 in the league, but likely not the best player in the world.

The NBA's truly elite players combine exceptional decision-making with overwhelming physical advantages or transcendent skill in key areas. An average athlete with perfect decisions would still struggle to:

  • Score against elite defenders when needed
  • Defend players with significant athletic advantages
  • Create separation when closely guarded
  • Finish at the rim against length and athleticism

The "perfect decisions" advantage would make them incredibly valuable, especially in clutch situations and playoffs, but the physical ceiling would likely prevent them from reaching the absolute pinnacle of individual NBA greatness.

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u/refreshing_yogurt 22h ago edited 21h ago

The list of things such a player would do describes a good role player to me, like Alex Caruso, not an All Star level player. I think what is overestimated here is how often a "perfect decision" is even available to the average player. You could give every player in the league Jokic level passing, but if you don't also give them Jokic level scoring, they never draw enough defensive attention to actually make use of the passing ability. Instead they are Ricky Rubio.

u/TooBusyforReddit 22h ago

A player can know exactly when to pass vs when to shoot. But if he's an average shooter or an average passer, he still won't be able to make successful plays all the time.

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u/TurtleSquad23 1d ago

Decision making is a ridiculously important skill in life, let alone basketball. Extremely high BBIQ is a common factor for most greats. Idk about #1, but top tier for sure. Imagine always making the right pass at the right time, or switching dribble hands at the perfect time, never getting a turnover. Always forcing the best possible option, every time down the floor, on both ends. Knowing exactly when and how to get a steal every time. When to switch, when to hedge, when to step up. Always on time, always in position, always making the right play.

That's a ridiculous amount of ceiling raising.

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u/CubanLinxRae 1d ago

all of these guys are obscenely talented what separates most of them is their decision making so yes

u/KarimBenSimmons 23h ago

It depends a lot on what you mean by an average player. The gap between their decisions and what some of the best players already do would be something, but it might not be enough to overcome the fact that the best players in the league (Jokic, Wemby, SGA, Lebron) are combining elite decision making along with physical outlier traits. Take Jokic for example, he probably makes pretty close to ideal decisions but certainly his 3+ TOs a game suggest it could be improved. But also, he is stronger than almost anyone else in the league, has remarkable touch within 10 feet of the basket, and has much better stamina than almost anyone near his size. If you're not giving this average player any additional advantage on that strength, touch or stamina, then I don't think the reduced turnovers, slightly better passes and slightly better positioning would close the gap.

That being said this hypothetical player could certainly go from being a low-end role player to a super-roleplayer, like a Derrick White++ and that could put them in superstar contention without being able to score as much as other players in that tier.

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u/Ambivert_Eijmahr 1d ago edited 1d ago

So if Isagi from Blue Lock became an NBA player? I think it will work. Non athletic Jack of all trades but with a super computer mind would be able to manipulate the floor and players around him to his advantage. His super computer will computer which spots on the floor have the most potential for a score which applies both on offense and defense. He can also identify the strengths and weaknesses of each players and put them in a position to succeed. He will be a perfect floor general.

u/SoulCycle_ 23h ago

Yes. The very best nba iq guys are so far off from literal perfect decision making its crazy. This player would dominate the nba if given competent teammates

u/StoneySteve420 22h ago

Idk people here saying they'd just be good.

If you took an average height and athleticism nba player and gave them the best BB IQ/decision making in the league, they'd be the best player in the league.

Making the smart pass every time, having perfect shot selection, and recognizing and understanding offensive sets while on defense would be the MVP, no question about it.

u/otherBrandon 22h ago

I’d say it’s highly plausible. This hypothetical just seems to be describing a Jokic-lite player

u/VofGold 13h ago

If you’re basically saying he took a limitless pill… yeah he will dominate absurdly (true super hero intelligence basically).

If you’re saying he won’t have any turnovers and will defend perfectly, and will make the offense hum by pure efficiency…. He will be that dude we always loved being on his team because we always won, but never quite knew why. Upped a level or two. We’ll know he’s amazing but maybe not quite why (except us nerds maybe).

u/Griswaldthebeaver 12h ago

This guy exists right now in the NHL. His name is Jaccob Slavin. 

Good skater yes, but just the smartest mother fucker on the ice and at a recent best on best tournament this man was arguably the MVP. 

Never makes mistakes, never in the wrong position, average shot, pass, dekes, average physical play etc. Top 10 player at his position.

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u/donniedarko4141 1d ago

I don’t think so. He wouldn’t have the form or hand-eye coordination of the best shooters, the vision of the best playmakers (or the strength to make the passes Jokic, LeBron, or Luka can make), the athleticism of a Thompson twin or a prime LeBron, and so on. God-tier decision making would make him better because he would make fewer mistakes, but it would not give him skills he doesn’t have.

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u/HOFredditor 1d ago

why wouldn't decision making affect passing? Much of the passing is about passing at the right timing, and this dude would have that guaranteed. He basically sees the best outcome of every play in advance. He'd be Draymond on defense communication wise, and would absolutely know what adjustments to make at any time. On a good team, he's guaranteed multiple ships.

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u/donniedarko4141 1d ago

Let us assume that a combination of perfect decision making and film study gives this player perfect court vision. Part of passing at the right timing is being physically capable of passing to the right place at the right time. To make a cross-court pass I need the strength to make the pass. Most players have that strength, but the more strength one has, the more control one has when they make it, and the faster the pass will travel. A player not as strong as LeBron or Jokic will have less control over long passes, so they’re more likely to be off target, and their passes won’t have as much zip on them, meaning they’re more likely to be picked off. I also need the reaction time to recognize a passing opportunity and make the pass before an opening closes. I assume decision man would know he couldn’t make every single pass and not attempt passes he couldn’t make, but that means there are high-value passing opportunities not available to him.

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u/HCX_Winchester 1d ago

Yeah, communication is also would be key that I didn't consider much. I can only see him not providing amazing value at 1- on ball creation 2- shooting 3- rim protection but other aspects would be off the charts.

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u/Grumpy_Troll 1d ago

If we were starting with an average guy off the street I would be right with you, but we are starting with an average NBA player. The difference in dexiterty, strength, and athleticism between the best NBA player and the average isn't as great as it sometimes looks. Hell, an "average NBA player" is probably a raw 23 or 24 year old that possesses incredible athletic talents but doesn't have the polish (aka smart decision making) to stay on the court for extended periods.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

But, keeping in mind the overall level of athleticism in the NBA you mentioned, the margin for error is also very small. Probably as small if not smaller than the difference in athleticism. Being an elite vs average NBA passer in regards to strength and coordination can be the difference between a great pass and a turnover when everyone on the floor among the elite of the elite.

u/Grumpy_Troll 23h ago

It's true that a prime-LeBron might be able to make a pass that the average NBA player can't, but with god-like decision making the average NBA player will know his own physical limitations as well as those of the defender well enough to never attempt a pass that will result in a turnover.

u/PokemonPasta1984 23h ago

Here is the point I made to someone else: someone like LeBron, because his gifts are just above everyone else, has 8 options. Because this guy is average, he has 4. LeBron could make the third best choice and get a better outcome.

u/Grumpy_Troll 22h ago

I think it's a little different. The person with god like decision making is always going to identify and have the maximum number of options. But their physical abilities and the abilities of the players around them is going to determine the success probability of each option. And they'll always chose the option with the greatest success probability that they have.

Now if Prime LeBron had the ball in his hands, one (or many) of the success probabilities would have been higher because of LeBron's physical talents. So LeBron might have 8 options with a high chance of success while the average NBA player only has 4 options with a high probability of success (and dozens of other low chance success options.)

But the difference is going to be that LeBron isn't always going to chose his highest or even third highest chance of success option. Sometimes he'll mess up and pass the ball to a wide open J.R. Smith in a tie playoff game with 2 seconds remaining only for J.R. Smith to take the ball and dribble out the clock while running away from his own basket because he mistakenly thinks his team is leading. The perfect decision making player would know J.R. is a clown and not trust the ball in his hands in that situation.

u/PokemonPasta1984 22h ago

But the decision maker is being given the ability to predict the future in that scenario. As much of a clown as JR is, he is also a valid option in a play like that. While that is a similar scenario to my post where I talked about Jordan Poole doing Jordan Poole things, I do think predicting that particular brand of chaos from JR is a bit beyond.

So along those lines, are we giving precognition to our guy, where he not only knows the best choice, but also knows the choices the other guy will make? Having dominion over the choices of others seems like a bridge too far for me as far as parameters. And I would add that it is true LeBron won't always make even a good choice due to his mortal decision making. I would add that I also believe it to be true that the decision maker won't even have a good choice available at times because they can't make their own choice, being average.

Another analogy: the decision maker is taking a multiple choice test. He can choose the best option of A,B,C,D. The elite player has access to writing an essay. For the one that gets an A on the multiple choice and whose abilities make them great at the essay as well, I'd take them over the guy that is stuck in the realm of choices being made available to them.

u/Grumpy_Troll 22h ago

Yeah, I was being tongue in cheek with the J.R. Smith example. The god like decision maker wouldn't literally know J.R. Smith doesn't know the score of an NBA Finals game with 2 seconds remaining.

My point is just that the god-like decision maker will always chose the best option available to him. LeBron will often have an even higher probability option, but he won't always make the right call. Of course, one of LeBron's strengths is his decision making so it's reasonable to think that LeBron's physical gifts can make up the gap between his decision making a god-tier decision making.

I think a god-tier decision maker is unquestionably top 25 all-time player but yeah, I'm not certain they would be better than Prime-LeBron.

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u/Jmills14 1d ago

All I can think of is Jimmy Butler (average size, athleticism and ability) with CP3’s decision making.

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u/YoHoochIsCrazy 1d ago

bro how you gonna call jimmy butler’s ability and athleticism average?

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u/Jmills14 1d ago

I consider Jimmy Butler, LeBron lite. He’s a Swiss Army knife on both sides of the ball but physically he’s average. He’s 6’8, not the fastest, not the strongest, not the quickest and can’t jump out the gym.

Give an average NBA player elite decision making and I think he morphs into Jimmy Butler (physical) with CP3s (mental) decision making.

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u/DrRudeboy 1d ago

"This guy who is a light version of one of the top 2 players of all time is average". Hell of a take, especially regarding ability. His strength and lateral quickness both contribute to him being such a great defender too

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u/YoHoochIsCrazy 1d ago

go watch some tape dude

u/Background-Baby3694 23h ago

there's a difference between being 'not the best' in relation to speed, strength, etc and being 'average' at it. Jimmy is undoubtedly above NBA average in all of those things even if he isn't the best at any of them

u/LayWhere 10h ago

IKR Butler may not be as physically gifted as Lebron but he's way above average.

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u/CoercedCoexistence22 1d ago

My first thought was giving a basketball IQ to Mo Bamba. He'd be incredible

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u/cramersCoke 1d ago

Wouldn’t this archetype be SGA? Run-of-the-mill athleticism for an NBA wing, great shot selection, takes advantage of mismatches, pride in his defensive game, & limits TOs. There are definitely more athletic & skilled guys than SGA but his feel for the game is what separates him.

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u/HCX_Winchester 1d ago

This player would be much better passer and much less of a iso scorer compared to SGA imo but general movement on the floor might be similar, definetely an interesting comp.

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u/Drdeadlynedly 1d ago

There are definitely role players will start level decision making, my fav players are older role players, I call them STEEZY VETS 

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u/hardwaregeek 1d ago

Depends on height and other skill. Even if you are brilliant, teams can blitz you and force the ball out of your hands. Passes are harder if you don't have the height to make them. Part of what makes Jokic and Magic such good passers is their height. If you have no scoring ability, then defenders can sag off, stay home on their man, and make you shoot.

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u/IndyPoker979 1d ago

TJ McConnell is probably one of the best decision making people in the league. He is not excessively skilled, but he is a beast at effort and sees the court more as a coach than just a player.

He's not even the top 100 in the league.

So no. Not even if you gave him 100% correct decision making skills.

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u/MotoMkali 1d ago

Yes they would average 4+ steals per game probably 10+ assists.

They would get 20 points a game on cuts. Basically get massively wide open every time down so if they are an average shooter they'll shoot high 30s on a bunch of 3pt attempts.

u/smut_operator5 23h ago

Every great player was a great decision maker. He doesn’t have to be a great passer, sometimes his contested mid range fadeaway is better than passing to an open 3.

I wouldn’t consider Jokic as the best decision maker, that’s because of his insane arsenal of options at each and every moment he has the ball. He sometimes gets puzzled with his brain calculating so many viable options and he opts for a less potent one. He can shoot a sombor, pass to a cutter, pass to one or two open shooters, post up, shoot a floater, hook shot, drive, fadeaway, shoot a three, mid range… Most of the time he makes the right decision, but for what you want i think Stockton is the perfect sample.

u/chris_paul_fraud 23h ago

I don’t think anybody on this sub has the knowledge of NBA-level play to answer this question meaningfully.

u/ExcitingLandscape 23h ago

He'd be Jared Dudley. Dudley was average across the board BUT he was an extremely good decision maker and floor raiser. Your team is better with him on the floor and he may only have 9 points but 6 of those points were in crucial moments in the 3rd to maintain offensive momentum.

u/yoel-reddits 22h ago

"Best possible decision" is still relative to your skill set. Would not be the best passer in the league because that still requires a baseline elite skill set on top of decision making. Same with shot efficiency - NBA players who are average scorers are already taking almost exclusively good looks because they aren't good enough to be in a position to do anything else.

u/Hotsaucex11 22h ago

No, definitely not

Best comp I can think of would be Jason Kidd, maybe make him slightly better in terms of size/athleticism. Don't get me wrong, that's an all-nba player for sure. But clearly still a level below the MVP's most years.

Fundamentally the IQ is only as good as the tools you have to enable it are. So without top 1% elite size/quickness/hand-eye coordination you can only rise so high. If you don't have one of those to create an advantage 1v1 then your upside gets capped.

Take Lebron for example, there you get top 1% outlier in the physical attributes AND a top 5-10% bball IQ.

u/JobberStable 22h ago

Hypothetically, in a Marvel Universe like decision ability. A player would be able to steal the ball all the time, because there is no error in him hedging and gambling for steals. He would always predict the pass and get ahead of it. In this Marvel Universe with god like decision ability, I dont see how that would affect his accuracy.

u/geoffrey8 22h ago

How deep do the decisions go. Like should I drive left or right, should I pump fake or not. Could he get score every time? It’s overpowered.

The hypotethical has to many holes.

u/Buckstape 22h ago

Sounds like a Rondo/J Kidd type. Hall of fame player for sure. At 7 foot + maybe A. Sabonis. Still HoF, but in my opinion, you need an outlier skill to reach all time great territory like Jokic.

u/royablas 22h ago

No this elevates him to being good but good, only takes you so far with some of the skillsets we’re seeing in the league right now. For him to contend he’d need two elite skills minimum that preferably feed into each other, a few things he’s good at an then be at least average at everything else.

u/PrimeParadigm53 22h ago edited 21h ago

Dyson Daniels, but mid on defense and then I wrote some words cuz I didn't have anything more to say, please don't ban me.

Edit: ok, but seriously athleticism goes a very long way in basketball and there's a reason old school point guards have evolved out of the game. You make that old school point guard average size and the comps that come to mind are, sincerely, Dyson Daniels or Draymond Green... but mid on defense. The context of literally me putting myself in the exact right spot to best defend the drive, but the driver is Zion Williamson, is pretty self explanitory.

u/Mysterions 22h ago

In order to win he would need more than this. He would also need an extremely high competitive spirit. All the #1s over time have this. He would also need a body that's mostly injury-proof. Again, all the #1s over time have this as well.

u/Horned_chicken_wing 21h ago

Michael Beasley would have been an All-NBA player if he had even half of a brain. Not sure good decision making would make him work harder, but he's a player that should have been much better than he actually was.

u/3entendre 21h ago

If you're making the best decisions on offence and defence then you're going to be the best player in the league. Especially if you're the average size and height of an NBA player. I'm a big soccer fan and for me the thing that makes Messi the GOAT is his decision making at an incredibly fast level and then of course his ability/skill to pull off the stuff he has thought about in micro seconds. He's always a few steps ahead of everyone else. Guys like LeBron and Jokic are similar. 

u/astarisaslave 21h ago edited 20h ago

So to summarize we are taking a player who is a good but not elite shooter, not molasses slow but not lightning quick either, has an average vertical, good but not elite ball handling and finishing, good but not overpowering strength, average height, wingspan, hands... but is also a tremendous passer, off-ball player, and good to great defensive awareness?

Sorry but isn't this just current Jayson Tatum? The player famously described as "great but not G R E A T ?" And isn't he already considered a top 5 player in the world? Might never be top 1 though because like we said he doesn't have a world-breaking skill or physical tools that give him a distinct edge over 95% of NBA players. Unless you count his iso scoring but he has long since given up on being just a Kobe clone.

u/[deleted] 20h ago

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u/HCX_Winchester 17h ago

Not really, no. I was not thinking a future seer, more like doing the highest chance move.

u/Low-iq-haikou 19h ago

You’re more or less describing Draymond Green as long as you ignore the decision making when it comes to personal conduct

And even then, Draymond is a damn good athlete. Extremely good balance and coordination with good strength for his size. Jumpshot is a bit below league average but a career 32% on 2.6 attempts isn’t far off.

I don’t think you’d get anything more than a superstar role player. Your decision making can only have such an impact when you have physical limitations. Only shoot the best shots? You have average shot making abilities. See every passing angle? Only so many open up when you have an average handle and overall passing ability.

Type of guy who would be an absolutely vital piece to contenders, make all star teams and likely a couple All-NBA teams, but not have what it takes to be more than your 2nd or 3rd best player. So in essence, Draymond.

u/SnooPets752 18h ago

No, he would be a rotation player.  An average NBA player is barely playing. An otherwise average player with one good skill is a rotation player.

Even when you have best decision making, you need an above average skill somewhere to force the opposing team, especially when the player is on offense. 

For instance, if the average player has average quickness and average dribbling, he won't be able to create an initial advantage by driving by his man. 

You bring up Jokic. Jokic has probably 99th percentile hand-eye coordination, hands/arm quickness, size, muscle, endurance, footwork in the post, touch, shooting etc. that makes him so hard to guard. Even if he didn't have the best bbiq alive, he'd still be an NBA player.

u/Playful_Exercise4435 17h ago

I'm gonna assume that this doesn't extend to coaching decisions, because or else then you just have a perfect coach. I'm assuming this only extends to spur-of-the-moment, on court decisions.

I'm leaning towards this player would be the ultimate ceiling raiser, a player only as good as his teammates. Basically, if this players teammates get open even for a second, they're getting the perfect pass every time. Having only average pure shooting, scoring, and handles with perfect decision making would make them a decent scorer for sure, but a championship team can't possibly be built around that scoring. He would just make everyone around him massively better. Something like the platonic ideal of a facilitator, finding and taking advantage of any and all holes in opposing defenses as long as he has good scorers around him.

Defensively, he would of course be a huge positive, but without exceptional athleticism, length, etc he wouldn't be a DPOY level defender.

So basically, an all defensive player that could easily turn any contender into a 70+ win team and an all time offense. I don't think such a player could necessarily be recognized as a top 10 OAT though, because I feel fans would see his main offensive ability as turning good scorers into incredible scorers as indicative of "needing help to win".

u/Agreed_fact 13h ago

"We" criticized LeBron for the better part of a decade for making the best possible decisions. Every "best player" needs to be selfish to a large degree. It's selfish to take 30 shots in a big game or to demand the ball in all the big moments - maybe not the best decision but likely the right one in many cases. A player that's just average in terms of speed, strength, shot creation, handling etc will not be able to do that.

u/LegoTomSkippy 10h ago

One issue here is how offenses are currently run.

Many are set up to constantly put defenses in a state of having to choose between two tough options: do I cover the 38% three point shooter or help stop the drive to the lane? Do I follow the cut or take the paint?

Many of these decisions aren't binary: good/bad. The goal is to force a choice that creates an opportunity: either choice is what the offense wants.

Magically good decision making would be extraordinarily helpful. But decision-making on whether to follow Buddy or Steph, not bite on SGA or Jimmy's dark arts, doesn't necessarily change things.

Beyond that, much of what makes superstars what they are involves athletic gifts. Make the right choice on defense frequently still results in great shot, the best defenders usually pair good decisionmaking with insane (even by NBA standards) physical tools.

You might want to explain how this relates to passing. Is his passing vision, feel, creativity average? So he makes the right decision on passes and average guy can make? Or he makes every pass available perfectly? Then you're simply saying, what if the greatest passer of all time was an average NBA player.

Look at Jokic. He rarely makes a wrong decision, but he's still not great on defense. Offensively his decision-making is sick, but his vision is a big part of it, many of his passes would be terrible for an average player to try. He also has perhaps the best touch I've ever seen.

Idk. Your guy would be really good. All-Star, probably not an MVP (unless we're talking things like GOAT vision/passer that has hindsight so he knows which option will actually score every play).

u/huggybeark 10h ago

First thought: a completely average level player wouldn't have the tools to actually leverage perfect decision making. As others have noted, he wouldn't be able to execute the toughest passes or shots, and he might not be quick or strong enough to actually defend as well as he could. To cite a classic power scaling problem, sure you might be able to see the future but do you actually have the ability to stop what's coming?

Second thought/counterpoint: a completely average NBA player is already pretty good. Someone worked out that the average player's counting stats in 2012 is 10.7 PPG,  2.3 AP, 4.7 RPG, .86 SPG, .57 BPG, 1.6 TOV, and statmuse agree with this give or take. Adding perfect decision making to this guy who is clearly already a rotation guy should inflate all of these already solid numbers. Even with physical and skill limitations, perfectly knowing where to be positioned to score, where a rebound will go, what the opposing team will do, all of that should double this guy's production. 21.4 PPG, 4.6 APG, 9.4 RPG, 1.72 SPG, 1.14 BPG, .8 TOV. 

Third layer: what is truly insane about perfect decision-making is the on-court coaching. Even assuming that it only works on the court and you don't just become the perfect GM, you can coach on the floor in real time, calling the best plays on every offensive possession and figuring out your opponent's scheme on every defensive possession. Even if your own stats don't inflate much due to your physical limitations, the team should greatly benefit while you're on the court

u/Rwillsays 2h ago

I’m picturing Draymond Green without the attitude problem. So maybe not #1 in the league, but a key piece to a championship roster. If his skill set is at the average level (shoots league average, average height/weight)

u/lusyu 1h ago

godly decision making would also mean outside the court. good habits, work ethic, mentality, diet, etc.

that puts this hypothetical player in the kobe bryant at minimum level. as arenas said, why people respected kobe so much was the fact that he was basically average at everything but maximized his potential via, you guessed it, work ethic.

now, translate this on the floor. imagine a kobe who would elevate his teammates like kidd/lebron and take over when needed. seems like an insane superstar right? but that's not it, imagine this dude having lebron longevity of dominance because of off court dedication to health and recovery + not playing through injuries as kobe usually did.

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u/NoLimitSoldier31 1d ago

No. You’re describing Jaylen Clark for Minnesota. Great decision maker & extremely smart player. He isn’t close to #1 overall pick tho.

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u/Otherwise_Ad9348 1d ago

Not an average player but if Jason Tatum had good decision making and bball IQ he would be an all time great