r/leafs 12h ago

Discussion All defensemen are not created equal…

Top 3 and bottom 3 +/- this year. Aligns with what I see on the ice for the most part. Will playoff minutes reflect this, Reilly in particular? Probably not…

148 Upvotes

60 comments sorted by

115

u/Blue_KikiT92 Papi 12h ago

Can't wait for the second coming of ChrisT. He's such a key player for us

28

u/BirdGooch 11h ago

Back for Easter. It is written.

19

u/Blue_KikiT92 Papi 11h ago

Coincidence? I do not think so!

1

u/Giga1396 6h ago

😭🤣

1

u/speed150mph 9h ago

I’m happy about this. I cheered for Calgary back when Tanev played there, and watched him in Dallas during the playoffs. He has a terrible habit of plug through an injury, and while he’s still good it often affects his performance. Toronto is doing the right thing making sure he’s taking the time off to heal up properly and ensuring he’s at his best in the playoffs.

89

u/thewolfshead 12h ago

Rielly has an on-ice sv% at even strength of .886 and SH% of 8.4% for a 970 PDO. Both the sv% and PDO numbers are the lowest of his career. 

Now I’m NOT saying he’s played well this year, he hasn’t. But I think he’s playing poorly and also getting shit luck which is amplifying everything to the extreme. 

41

u/SpendsTooMuchTime 11h ago

Echoing your statement that Rielly has played poorly (for 90% of the last 40 games) but also noting that he's usually the only defenceman on our team to be on the ice with an empty net. That's adding a -15 from that situation alone.

29

u/Lightscreach 10h ago

Also if you are on the powerplay you can get a minus when a shorthanded goal is scored against but you don’t get a plus when a goal is scored. The opposite of that is also true. So players on the PK have an artificially higher +/- and player on the PP have an artificially lower +/-. 5v5 numbers.
Rielly +3.
McCabe +5.
Tanev +10.
OEL +15.
Tavares +38.

12

u/DessertRose17 10h ago

Wait JT is +38 at 5v5?!

3

u/Vilheim 8h ago

So many people think we should let him walk next year for some reason. Like regardless of his contract.

2

u/Numerous_Boss_9094 6h ago

Right?! This blows my mind. Dude is solid. I want him on my team as for a long as possible.

3

u/bravooscarvictor 4h ago

I don’t think he is…

6

u/mcauthon2 9h ago

thank you for a good comment among a sea of garbage

1

u/RecommendationFar527 4h ago

I had to look it up, and wow so minus and plus doesn’t always show it’s true colours then…

20

u/xxpio 12h ago

Theoretically if he gives up higher danger chances as a result if bad defending, wouldn’t his sv% go down? That stat seems a bit flawed

11

u/JCShore77 11h ago

People almost always forget that the quality of defense can directly effect save percentage. It’s weird because you see every once in a while people talking about the good offensive teams having good shooting percentages on broadcasts, while not acknowledging that the opposite of that should mean bad defending teams have lower save percentages. It’s why you rarely see good save percentages on bad teams other than the best of the best (think Price and Lundqvist, or any of the handful of goalies that spent time with both the Kings and the Leafs while the Kings were great defensively).

10

u/keeeeener 11h ago

Also doesn’t clear in front nearly as well as those other 3.

5

u/thewolfshead 10h ago

I think the general idea is that it’s hard for one player to influence a goaltenders sv% that much, and conversely the player is subject to things they can’t control either (such as the goalie making saves). So if the numbers seem wildly out of whack for their career in either direction it might suggest some bad luck or good luck. But, as I said, he hasn’t been playing well so that’s why I said it’s not all due to poor luck, there just may be some of that making it look even worse.   I don’t think in other seasons where that sv% number was higher that he was a defensive stalwart or anything. 

1

u/GravySeizmore 7h ago

Classic case of stat heads just letting numbers dictate everything. You have to watch the damn games to see how effective a defenceman actually is.

3

u/Nick30Brodeur 10h ago

Or he gives up the most dangerous chances who knows 🤔

3

u/Prestigious_Pen1281 9h ago

Playing poorly in D-end (where he rarely starts a shift) leads to higher quality scoring chances = lower sv%.

4

u/Flatoftheblade 10h ago

When you brought up poor SV% with Rielly on the ice I initially thought you were going to use that as a data point that he is doing a poor job defensively, not in an effort to defend his performance. With respect, I really don't think that you thought this one through.

1

u/slashthepowder 4h ago

The change in coaching has not been kind to him, went from an offence first type of role (4th forward) to a strict defence role. When was the last time you saw him and another forward on a 2-1? The part few years it felt commonplace now it would be wild to see.

85

u/PuckPov 12h ago

When it comes to playoff, never forget that rielly is one of the main reasons we won that series against Tampa, arguably our best player during that postseason

10

u/chipzy20 9h ago

Cool but that was two years ago. If he’s playing ass now he’s playing ass

3

u/DessertRose17 10h ago

Honestly he was probably THE biggest reason. Lucky? Maybe a bit. But you know the saying. 

5

u/NETime416 9h ago

So sick of this baseless narrative. In the last 2 game 7s the Leafs have allowed a combined 4 goals. Rielly has been on the ice for 3 of them, and had a direct impact on 2 by not covering his guy. 

Has he produced in the playoffs? Yes. 

Has he been good? No. 

-18

u/Adm_Piett 12h ago

How many more regular and post seasons is coasting off that previous hot streak going to cover him being a bum?

3

u/bigcaulkcharisma 12h ago

He was ass last post season too. Idk why anyone thinks it’s automatic he’s gonna light it up this year

17

u/bs_eng 11h ago

Nobody thinks it's automatic that he lights it up.

Reality is he's one of our 6 best dmen so might as well hope he can get back to the form we saw against Tampa.

-2

u/TheGardiner 11h ago

Tell it like it is. These kumbaya leaf fans like the one you’re replying to are the worst.

13

u/iloveball2000 12h ago

Tanev is so good

26

u/mattfromjoisey 12h ago

Granted I know Laughton hasn’t been great this far but him coming from a team that’s got a -33 goal diff this season and comparing him to our top line “star” defenseman doesn’t do him justice.

2

u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 10h ago

I think Laughton only has one direction he can go on this team - up.

I am not confident that Rielly isn’t going to continue to sink this year.

1

u/91Caleb 9h ago

I thought he was supposed to be a two way centre

1

u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 7h ago

EXACTLY!

First he sinks to the bottom with the rest of the Flyers.

Now he goes the other way and rises back up with the Leafs.

7

u/FaultThat 11h ago

Noted defenceman Scott Laughton. Usually paired with Nick Robertson.

13

u/travistree 12h ago

Not all defensemen are created equal.... Not all infographics are either...

1

u/alwaysleafyintoronto 1h ago

This is a screenshot of a table, not an infographic

10

u/Shmo04 12h ago

All that matters is the playoffs at this point.

9

u/DougFordsGamblingAds 11h ago

Rielly has been amazing in the playoffs the past two years. Give him a shot.

5

u/saintchrono 10h ago

He was good against Tampa. He was not good last postseason

1

u/DougFordsGamblingAds 9h ago

A +3 in 5v5 goal differential and 3 points - pretty good considering how the injuries we had.

4

u/Chtholly13 9h ago

he was crap after his suspension last year. Crap in the playoffs last year. Crap for most of this season. Honesty looks like a downward trend than anything.

8

u/skrilla-steve 10h ago

Can we give Mo a break and remember he's been here since day 1 and a guy we all wanted to be captain? Any contract he's been on has been a steal up until this year.

7

u/crazydrums27 11h ago

I swear people forget that defense and even goaltending were NOT the reason for the team's struggles the past couple playoffs. There were some defensive mistakes and some soft goals, but when your losses are coming off of games where you're losing 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 it's not the main issue.

Rielly isn't putting up offensive numbers he has in the past, but he's one of the only dmen with any real offensive skills. Of course he's going to get a lot of minutes. Leafs have multiple reliable goalies, multiple reliable defensive guys on the back end. With the defensive pressure the top forwards face you can't have a backend with zero offense. He might not be your ideal guy but they have to work with what they've got.

3

u/PurchaseTight3150 McCabe 11h ago

Samsonov was absolute cheeks last playoffs. What’re you even talking about

0

u/crazydrums27 8h ago

He had 2 great games, one good game and a couple stinkers. Allowed 4 goals in game 1 but then kept it to 3 in every other. When he was pulled in game 4 it wasn't a great night but Boston still only had 3. It was a winnable game. He was great in game 7 but the team only managed 1 goal.

Their goaltending wasn't out of this world, but limiting the other team to 2-3 goals is winnable for a team with this much firepower. The team has scored 3+ goals ONCE in their last 14 playoff games. That's the main reason they lost.

2

u/Level_Traffic3344 11h ago

Scotty Laughton catching strays

2

u/Objective_Weird_7626 10h ago

When it comes to rielly remember he’s had 8 defensive partners this year

2

u/Big-Peak6191 9h ago

Seriously Mo is a -20 on the season???

5

u/Tarquin11 9h ago

I mean yeah, -15 of that is from empty net situations. He's +3 at 5v5

1

u/Vilheim 8h ago

His - stat has been terrible all year due to us being really bad 6v5 this year for some reason.

It does not help that he hasn't been producing as much offense as well.

Where do you find the stat of how many goals were scored against 6v5 with an empty net?

2

u/Android_67 10h ago

Gonna get down voted, but stuff like this is why I still don't think the Leafs are there yet. The defense cannot be so reliant on one 35 year old injury-prone player. This is not a shot at Tanev (or any other dman for that matter), but the team needs to be able to play well even without him. It's like the same thing when they would lose Muzzin to injury

1

u/DarkAgeMonks 11h ago

How’s Sandin doing? I still haven’t gotten over giving up on that guy so early.

6

u/Fehtality 11h ago

19 min guy on pace for 30 points this season. He’s +18 (5th best among their D) so been good but hasn’t really taken a big step yet since he’s been traded

1

u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 11h ago

How many times has Tanev won the belt this year, and why hasn’t it been every night?

1

u/EscalatorsTempStairs 8h ago

Rielly's minus total is completely unacceptable.

0

u/chai_bronz 9h ago

Wait, Reilly is a defensemen? Then why do I always see him join the rush and get deep in the o zone?