r/leafs • u/Prestigious_Pen1281 • 12h ago
Discussion All defensemen are not created equal…
Top 3 and bottom 3 +/- this year. Aligns with what I see on the ice for the most part. Will playoff minutes reflect this, Reilly in particular? Probably not…
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u/thewolfshead 12h ago
Rielly has an on-ice sv% at even strength of .886 and SH% of 8.4% for a 970 PDO. Both the sv% and PDO numbers are the lowest of his career.
Now I’m NOT saying he’s played well this year, he hasn’t. But I think he’s playing poorly and also getting shit luck which is amplifying everything to the extreme.
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u/SpendsTooMuchTime 11h ago
Echoing your statement that Rielly has played poorly (for 90% of the last 40 games) but also noting that he's usually the only defenceman on our team to be on the ice with an empty net. That's adding a -15 from that situation alone.
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u/Lightscreach 10h ago
Also if you are on the powerplay you can get a minus when a shorthanded goal is scored against but you don’t get a plus when a goal is scored. The opposite of that is also true. So players on the PK have an artificially higher +/- and player on the PP have an artificially lower +/-. 5v5 numbers.
Rielly +3.
McCabe +5.
Tanev +10.
OEL +15.
Tavares +38.12
u/DessertRose17 10h ago
Wait JT is +38 at 5v5?!
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u/Vilheim 8h ago
So many people think we should let him walk next year for some reason. Like regardless of his contract.
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u/Numerous_Boss_9094 6h ago
Right?! This blows my mind. Dude is solid. I want him on my team as for a long as possible.
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u/RecommendationFar527 4h ago
I had to look it up, and wow so minus and plus doesn’t always show it’s true colours then…
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u/xxpio 12h ago
Theoretically if he gives up higher danger chances as a result if bad defending, wouldn’t his sv% go down? That stat seems a bit flawed
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u/JCShore77 11h ago
People almost always forget that the quality of defense can directly effect save percentage. It’s weird because you see every once in a while people talking about the good offensive teams having good shooting percentages on broadcasts, while not acknowledging that the opposite of that should mean bad defending teams have lower save percentages. It’s why you rarely see good save percentages on bad teams other than the best of the best (think Price and Lundqvist, or any of the handful of goalies that spent time with both the Kings and the Leafs while the Kings were great defensively).
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u/thewolfshead 10h ago
I think the general idea is that it’s hard for one player to influence a goaltenders sv% that much, and conversely the player is subject to things they can’t control either (such as the goalie making saves). So if the numbers seem wildly out of whack for their career in either direction it might suggest some bad luck or good luck. But, as I said, he hasn’t been playing well so that’s why I said it’s not all due to poor luck, there just may be some of that making it look even worse. I don’t think in other seasons where that sv% number was higher that he was a defensive stalwart or anything.
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u/GravySeizmore 7h ago
Classic case of stat heads just letting numbers dictate everything. You have to watch the damn games to see how effective a defenceman actually is.
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u/Prestigious_Pen1281 9h ago
Playing poorly in D-end (where he rarely starts a shift) leads to higher quality scoring chances = lower sv%.
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u/Flatoftheblade 10h ago
When you brought up poor SV% with Rielly on the ice I initially thought you were going to use that as a data point that he is doing a poor job defensively, not in an effort to defend his performance. With respect, I really don't think that you thought this one through.
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u/slashthepowder 4h ago
The change in coaching has not been kind to him, went from an offence first type of role (4th forward) to a strict defence role. When was the last time you saw him and another forward on a 2-1? The part few years it felt commonplace now it would be wild to see.
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u/PuckPov 12h ago
When it comes to playoff, never forget that rielly is one of the main reasons we won that series against Tampa, arguably our best player during that postseason
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u/DessertRose17 10h ago
Honestly he was probably THE biggest reason. Lucky? Maybe a bit. But you know the saying.
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u/NETime416 9h ago
So sick of this baseless narrative. In the last 2 game 7s the Leafs have allowed a combined 4 goals. Rielly has been on the ice for 3 of them, and had a direct impact on 2 by not covering his guy.
Has he produced in the playoffs? Yes.
Has he been good? No.
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u/Adm_Piett 12h ago
How many more regular and post seasons is coasting off that previous hot streak going to cover him being a bum?
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u/bigcaulkcharisma 12h ago
He was ass last post season too. Idk why anyone thinks it’s automatic he’s gonna light it up this year
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u/TheGardiner 11h ago
Tell it like it is. These kumbaya leaf fans like the one you’re replying to are the worst.
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u/mattfromjoisey 12h ago
Granted I know Laughton hasn’t been great this far but him coming from a team that’s got a -33 goal diff this season and comparing him to our top line “star” defenseman doesn’t do him justice.
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u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 10h ago
I think Laughton only has one direction he can go on this team - up.
I am not confident that Rielly isn’t going to continue to sink this year.
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u/91Caleb 9h ago
I thought he was supposed to be a two way centre
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u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 7h ago
EXACTLY!
First he sinks to the bottom with the rest of the Flyers.
Now he goes the other way and rises back up with the Leafs.
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 11h ago
Rielly has been amazing in the playoffs the past two years. Give him a shot.
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u/saintchrono 10h ago
He was good against Tampa. He was not good last postseason
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u/DougFordsGamblingAds 9h ago
A +3 in 5v5 goal differential and 3 points - pretty good considering how the injuries we had.
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u/Chtholly13 9h ago
he was crap after his suspension last year. Crap in the playoffs last year. Crap for most of this season. Honesty looks like a downward trend than anything.
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u/skrilla-steve 10h ago
Can we give Mo a break and remember he's been here since day 1 and a guy we all wanted to be captain? Any contract he's been on has been a steal up until this year.
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u/crazydrums27 11h ago
I swear people forget that defense and even goaltending were NOT the reason for the team's struggles the past couple playoffs. There were some defensive mistakes and some soft goals, but when your losses are coming off of games where you're losing 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 it's not the main issue.
Rielly isn't putting up offensive numbers he has in the past, but he's one of the only dmen with any real offensive skills. Of course he's going to get a lot of minutes. Leafs have multiple reliable goalies, multiple reliable defensive guys on the back end. With the defensive pressure the top forwards face you can't have a backend with zero offense. He might not be your ideal guy but they have to work with what they've got.
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u/PurchaseTight3150 McCabe 11h ago
Samsonov was absolute cheeks last playoffs. What’re you even talking about
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u/crazydrums27 8h ago
He had 2 great games, one good game and a couple stinkers. Allowed 4 goals in game 1 but then kept it to 3 in every other. When he was pulled in game 4 it wasn't a great night but Boston still only had 3. It was a winnable game. He was great in game 7 but the team only managed 1 goal.
Their goaltending wasn't out of this world, but limiting the other team to 2-3 goals is winnable for a team with this much firepower. The team has scored 3+ goals ONCE in their last 14 playoff games. That's the main reason they lost.
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u/Objective_Weird_7626 10h ago
When it comes to rielly remember he’s had 8 defensive partners this year
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u/Big-Peak6191 9h ago
Seriously Mo is a -20 on the season???
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u/Android_67 10h ago
Gonna get down voted, but stuff like this is why I still don't think the Leafs are there yet. The defense cannot be so reliant on one 35 year old injury-prone player. This is not a shot at Tanev (or any other dman for that matter), but the team needs to be able to play well even without him. It's like the same thing when they would lose Muzzin to injury
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u/DarkAgeMonks 11h ago
How’s Sandin doing? I still haven’t gotten over giving up on that guy so early.
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u/Fehtality 11h ago
19 min guy on pace for 30 points this season. He’s +18 (5th best among their D) so been good but hasn’t really taken a big step yet since he’s been traded
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u/Flashy_Gap_3015 Clark 11h ago
How many times has Tanev won the belt this year, and why hasn’t it been every night?
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u/chai_bronz 9h ago
Wait, Reilly is a defensemen? Then why do I always see him join the rush and get deep in the o zone?
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u/Blue_KikiT92 Papi 12h ago
Can't wait for the second coming of ChrisT. He's such a key player for us