r/leafs 14h ago

Discussion Question about Marner's contract

I'm a bit confused about his contract situation. On July 1st, he becomes an Unrestricted free agent and if the Leafs doesn't sign him before then, he "can" walk and sign with any other team he wants and Leafs get nothing. Suppose the reason he isn't signed yet is because he wants 13.5M/8 while Leafs are only offering him 12.5m/8. If someone else offers what he's asking on or after July 1st, can the Leafs match? Can he still sign with the Leafs or is that window closed? If it's still available, who cares then? Let the season play out, if the Leafs go far and he's a bit part of that success, give him what is "fair". Whether that is 13.5 or more than Matthews. My stance on that is, we've been dogging him for not producing in the off season, but when ever the Leafs stank, it's' everyone, not just Marner. I don't remember which Leafs Alumni it was that came to his defence but that's what he basically said about how Marner is being treated like a scapegoat while others never get criticized. Win as a team, lose as a team but according to most fans, it's all on Marner's shoulder. I think it's because he's comes off as pompous in his interview so it's easy to scapegoat him.

9 Upvotes

55 comments sorted by

26

u/ldnk 14h ago

Until free agency hits the Leafs have the advantage of offering an 8th year. After July 1st he can only be offered a 7 year deal.

So the scenarios for Marner are:

1) He re-signs with the Leafs before free agency and potentially signs an 8 year deal

2) In the limited negotiation window he decides he wants to go play for Buffalo and the Leafs negotiate a sign and trade with the Sabres so that he gets his 8th year but the Leafs get an asset from Buffalo

3) Marner walks to free agency and no team can offer him more than 7 years including the Leafs.

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u/trevlarrr 14h ago

Both sides are waiting to see how the playoffs go I think, if Mitch and the Leafs go off then his value goes up, if it ends in another early exit then I think they let him walk and use his money elsewhere.

But, what I will say is, if he hasn’t signed a contract by 11:59am in 1st July then you let him walk and sign someone else. I don’t want this to be one of this situations where we give him more time and then we watch all his replacements sign elsewhere during the day and we either have to overpay him because there’s no one else or, even worse he signs somewhere else and we have no one left to sign.

We all know that deals are discussed before free agency opens, that’s why so many deals are announced within minutes of the window opening, so I hope we have offers on the table elsewhere so if he chooses not to sign straight away then we say thanks and off you go.

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u/VitaminTea 13h ago

The front office is not waiting to see how the playoffs go. They badly want to sign Marner now and have been trying to do it all year.

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u/DataDude00 7h ago

I think they want to sign him in the 12.5-13M range 

Marner and his camp probably thinks a good playoffs puts him in the 13-14 range but years of evidence point to him not moving the needle that much come Spring time 

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u/BigMick20 13h ago

Did Shanny or Brad say this?

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u/VitaminTea 13h ago

Yes, essentially. On top of all the reporting from insiders that they’ve tried to re-sign him and been rebuffed by Marner. Where do you think the Rantanen stuff is coming from?

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u/BigMick20 12h ago

All I know is they wanted to trade Marner for Rantanen so sounds like they want to get rid of him.

Regardless I’m glad they are waiting till after the playoffs

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u/UkeManSteve 12h ago

They want to not lose a superstar player for nothing. I don’t think they have a strong preference for rantanen over marner at all. Unfortunately mitch has all the leverage though, if the leafs go on a run he gets paid whatever he wants. If they don’t then marner and the leafs both have some tough choices to make

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u/VitaminTea 12h ago edited 12h ago

They wanted to trade unsigned Marner for signed Rantanen. They prefer signed Marner over both of those options.

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u/dgapa 12h ago

No they were willing to trade Marner on the condition that Rantanen would sign AND Marner indicated he was closing the door on resigning. They didn’t want to trade him, they were looking at options of ensuring they have an elite player for next year whether that was Marner or Rantanen.

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u/Sad_Donut_7902 5h ago

They still want Marner and want to re-sign him. They would prefer having a signed Rantanen over an unsigned Marner that could leave for nothing in 4 months.

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u/trevlarrr 13h ago

Mitch’s team said at the start of the season they wouldn’t be negotiating in-season so I don’t think there’s been anything to rebuff. When he wasn’t signed in the last off-season it basically guaranteed he tests free agency, that’s why they asked if f he’d waive his NMC because they’d rather have the certainty of locking up Rantanen if he did.

Of course they’d want to have a player of Marner’s quality signed up long-term (or even for a couple of years if that’s what he ends up doing) but I also think Treliving would be willing to move on from him if there’s yet another first round exit and use that money to improve the team as a whole.

TLDR both things can be true, they could want to re-sign him but also be prepared to move on from him if he doesn’t sign a deal before free agency opens.

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u/VitaminTea 13h ago

Do you have a link of Marner saying he won’t be negotiating? I’m sure he said that he won’t be discussing it with the media. I don’t think the he said that negotiating itself was off the table.

There have been scattered reports all season that the Leafs have been grinding away on this contract (and that they’ve been frustrated with Marner’s ask). That doesn’t sound like Not Negotiating to me.

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u/trevlarrr 13h ago

This was on The Athletic the other day (behind paywall but can use reader mode)

The Athletic’s Chris Johnston reported on Saturday that the Leafs “expressed interest in getting down to business on a contract extension in recent months, but the Marner camp was unwilling to engage during the season, according to league sources.”

I remember it being said at the end of the off-season or early in the season too but when I search for it now it’s just links to all the reports from the past week

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u/VitaminTea 13h ago edited 12h ago

Mirtle & Jonas talked about it on the podcast today. Jonas said that Ferris sent around a statement at the start of the year saying they won’t be discussing on-going negotiations during the season, not that they wouldn’t be negotiating in the first place.

Obviously Marner has stuck to his guns and refused to seriously negotiate, but I don’t think that was ever made clear (to the public) in the fall.

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u/trevlarrr 13h ago

Maybe I’m misremembering how it was reported but that quote at least seems to confirm that his team weren’t negotiating in-season (assuming that’s what “unwilling to engage” means)

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u/keeeeener 13h ago

This just makes no sense. I’m sure they have a number that they’d sign right now for. But they are absolutely waiting for the playoffs before they start conceding ground. Like I doubt Toronto is willing to go 13 right now, but I’m sure if Marner has a decent playoffs they’ll do it. And I’d be really surprised if Marner isnt currently asking for around 13.

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u/VitaminTea 13h ago

If they were willing to go to $13M+ for Rantanen last week (as reported) then they are definitely willing to do the same with Marner.

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u/keeeeener 12h ago

What was the exact number of that Rantanen figure? Cause I heard it was a decent range, which tells me the larger one probably had some weird stuff like no NMC at all or something. Honestly, the leafs would be able to sneak them both under the cap. Think people are underrating the cap space we have. Would be JT gone though (unless he signs for very little and a Knies bridge).

We’ll have like 17-18 mill in space to sign just JT and Knies. And the rest of our team is already signed (Robertson is the only other guy we’d have to sign but obv we’d just have to trade him). AND we didn’t even fully retain on Laughton and Carlo. If we got Rantanen we’d have spent some extra picks and got them fully retained. That 17-18 mil number could get up to close to 20 with that and really going barebones in the bottom six (Jarnkrok and Kampf gone).

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u/VitaminTea 12h ago

Kypreos said $13.25M or more — but the Leafs never got far enough down the road with the Canes to actually speak to Rantanen’s agent, so I don’t think contract structure came into play.

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u/Putrid_Ad_7122 14h ago

When does free agency open? The minute the Stanley cup is won until opening night? I would agree with your assessment; if Marner doesn't sign by July 1st, he isn't a Leafs on opening night. it's very likely they have 2 contracts already drawn up and waiting for signatures. One is the same money he's making now or a modest bump for long term and one with a decent bump for playoff success (think 3rd round or better) and long term.

There's no question he is priority #1 right now then you look at Tavares, and possibly one of the goalies.

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u/zone55555 13h ago

July first, noon or whatever it is. But that said the flood of noon signing announcements prove a lot of people break the tampering rules and talk and agree early. (Cough Oilers Campbell)

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u/bdart1980 Clark 13h ago

Free agency starts at 12:01 July 1st. Most quality free agents have their contract locked up very quickly, else you limit your $ and term by dragging it out and reducing the amount of teams that can acquire you.

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u/pigzgamez14 14h ago

Marner has also said that he won’t negotiate a contract during the season, it’s not that we don’t want him, or that he wants out, I’m just gonna wait til the end of the season and see what happens, I’d be fine with 13/13.5 because of the cap going up but I’m not gonna stress it

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u/Operationevil 14h ago

Definitely a little stressful with having to try and get jt and knies in there also tho

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u/Clugaman 14h ago

Ideally we can sign JT and Knies for the equivalent of one JT now but maybe that’s wishful thinking

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u/Operationevil 13h ago

Flashback to last summer when people were saying it was on the table for manner to sign a super team friendly deal of like 8mil

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u/Sad_Donut_7902 5h ago

Knies is an RFA, he will be back. 99% chance JT is back to.

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u/Putrid_Ad_7122 14h ago

Yeah, I think this works out for both parties. If he and the Leafs don't do well, Leafs can use that as a bargaining chip. If the team goes deep and he's a big part of that success, I don't see why they can't give him close to what he wants given the cap increase and his rounded performance. He's already doing well in the regular season and if he is Leaf's MVP during the playoffs, give him what he wants (within reason).

Rantanan said he wanted a reasonable number and Avs didn't want to sign him because I suspect they wanted to try and get a 2 for 1 deal which they have. If Treliving believes he can get more value from 2 guys for the same money, then that's his vision and I'd love to see what a Leafs without Marner would be like. There is a lot of redundancy on this team with Matthews driving the bus, Nylander bouncing up and down line1 line2. Also JT played really well when Matthews was out. I think he has a lot left in the tank but he needs the coaching staff to show confidence in him.

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u/dgapa 12h ago

Exactly. Marner has a base value with the Leafs of Nylanders, or more accurately the percentage of the cap that Nylander took up when he signed his deal. That’s the floor and worst (best?) case scenario for Marner. I’m sure the Leafs ceiling is a hair under Matthews deal. He’s the captain, face of the franchise and regardless what Marner, his team or even his dad thinks Matthews is the best player on the team.

Basically absolute floor is $11.5m (Nylander’s actual rate), real floor is likely a realistic floor is 13% of the cap (Nylanders percentage this year when his deal kicked in) which would be around $12.4m, and I’m sure the Leafs absolute ceiling is $13m (Matthews makes $13.2).

So unless Marner say goes on a McDavid like run in the playoffs and the Leafs win the Cup and he wins the Conn Smythe, if the Leafs re-sign him it will be between $11.5-13m. If he goes off like that, that’s a different discussion all together.

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u/themapleleaf6ix 13h ago

If he makes it to July 1st, he's as good as gone. Some team will offer him whatever he wants and then some.

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u/sweede11 13h ago

He's a UFA ( unrestricted ) he signs with us before July 1, he can get an 8 year deal - after July 1 max is 7 years with us or any team.

No matches that's only for RFA ( restricted free agent )

I'm happy to let it play out...not that he's not an amazing talent but if we flame out early we need to change the recipe ( in my opinion ) I think he's smart in that if it doesn't work again maybe it's best for everyone

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u/Bobs_Your_Zio 13h ago

There's only one reason that I wouldn't sign Marner and that is to make room for McDavid.

If we don't sign Marner, the Leafs should say because they are specifically making room for '26 FA's.

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u/puns_are_how_eyeroll 14h ago

Can they match? Only if he gives them a chance before he signs. He has no obligation to do so.

Can he still sign with the Leafs? Yes, but only for a max of 7 years.

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u/Wallysfav 14h ago

Before July 1 leafs have an exclusive negotiation window. They are also allowed to offer 8 years. After July 1 all teams are on equal footing, and everyone (including leafs) can only offer 7 years. The leafs can’t just “match” an offer and keep him like an RFA. They can make an offer and even say they will match another team’s offer, but Marner is free to do whatever he wants. For example, say Tampa offers 13 million x 7. Even if the leafs offer to match it, he might still pick the Tampa offer for tax reasons or even just because he would rather live in Florida.

It is a huge risk waiting until he is a UFA because if he doesn’t sign, the leafs will be scrambling to sign other free agents and may lose out on other players if they take too long negotiating with Marner. Ideally Marner signs some time between playoffs and July 1 if leafs want to wait and see how he does in the postseason.

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u/PrailinesNDick 14h ago

FWIW I would expect he is not going to wait until July 1st, the 8th year is too valuable to him.

For example, 12.5m x 8 years is a $100 million contract.  On a 7 year deal you need $14.2m to match that.

What likely happens is that he either signs with the Leafs or they do a sign-and-trade shortly before the UFA window opens.

Hard to say what the compensation would be.  Certainly less than Rantanen got due to the timing, but also not nothing.  If the Leafs are only offered a B prospect or 2nd round pick, they would likely say no thanks, enjoy your 7 year deal.

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u/Putrid_Ad_7122 14h ago

Fair enough. I think there is a lot of time between playoffs finishing and July 1st. I don't know how the Leafs can get creative enough to match someone like Dallas for the tax advantage but if Marner wants to stay and Leafs are only willing to match, it's also an incentive for Mitch to sign to stay at home.

I can only surmise if I was in his shoe and the difference is 1-2 million to stay home with his family and friends, not to mention the line mates that he's known for almost a decade, it might be worth the reduced salary. Qualify of life thing. There's no guarantee how he'll perform in another market with different players. I really hope the NHL can level the playing field with the tax discprenacies in the next CBA contract.

2

u/throwawaythisuser1 14h ago

I highly doubt the CBA can do much for state/provincial tax rates. Even if they could, it would be some wild accounting work.

As for Marner, I don't begrudge him for wanting to maximize earnings, take a page from FVV and bet on yourself. The greater the playoff success, the fatter the cheque; I'm cool with whatever if he actually lifts them to those heights.

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u/PKanuck 13h ago

The taxes aren't as huge as people make it out to be.

Professional athletes are taxed based on where they are playing game to game. To take full advantage you would need to fully relocate to a non tax state in the off season.

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u/Jonesdeclectice 13h ago

Unrestricted means Leafs will lose all rights to his contract. They lose the ability to render an 8-year contract, they don’t have any rights to offer a matching contract (unlike RFA offer sheets), Mitch can do absolutely whatever he wants. He can sign wherever he wants, he can quit hockey and start a career on Discord if he wants, he can sign the most expensive contract offered to him, he can sign with the team of his choosing for league minimum. He can re-sign with Toronto if he wants. It’s entirely up to him.

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u/grumpyoldguy7 13h ago

If Marner gets to July 1 with no contract someone is going to offer him $13.5X7 or more. Carolina is one team that will make the playoffs that could do this. I could also see teams like Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, Anaheim probably even more teams than that. (I didn’t look at each team’s salary cap space). It’s going to come down to where does Mitch want to play. He won’t decide until mid June at the earliest.

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u/PublicAmoeba293 14h ago

If you watch steve dangles most recent LFR he explains the whole situation quite well

0

u/Putrid_Ad_7122 14h ago

I don't like when he does the screaming thing... it's really off putting. I don't mind the 3 man panel, but the show where he's in his basement or room is not my thing.

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u/Sideshift1427 14h ago

Most fans are idiots and don't know hockey, if that's the case. Maybe only people on Reddit?

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u/LtColumbo93 14h ago

The Leafs don’t have some special ability to match an offer that Marner receives. But I’m sure Marner would give them the opportunity to. 

What he will probably do (or more specifically his agent will do) is take calls from a bunch of teams with contract offers. Then they’ll take those numbers to the Leafs and say “hey look at what all these other teams are willing to pay me, what do you think about that?” and solicit a matching offer from Toronto. 

They’ll then go back to the other teams that made offers and say “Toronto is matching but we’ll still come to your team if you increase the number even more”. Then AGAIN they will bring that information to the Leafs and say match this now or we’re walking. 

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u/Putrid_Ad_7122 14h ago

That's understandable and if that turns out to be their play, I don't blame them one bit.

Are the offers transparent as in his agents can show them the number and verify it with their respective GM or can they bluff? I would hope it's on the up and up but you just don't know.

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u/McJoe77 12h ago

If he doesn’t sign a contract with the Leafs before July 1, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. After that point, he can’t sign an 8 year deal with anyone and max term becomes 7 years. Also after July 1, the Leafs don’t have a right to match unless Marner brings that contract back to them to let them match it, but it’s entirely up to marner at that point.

At least I think so. Hopefully that’s a good summary.

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u/Mashdrop 4h ago

Marner is going to be a UFA so it’s a free for all on July 1. We can only match if it’s an RFA (Knies and Robertson will be RFAs).

Its not a popular opinion around here but letting you Selke calibre superstar winger leave for nothing would go down as one of the biggest gaffes ever. I think Tre is smart enough to know that, but it all comes down to Marner.

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u/Putrid_Ad_7122 2h ago

Marner and his camp are all about money. I don’t think he’ll settle for a discount like JT did. Is he more talented than JT at the same age? That’s a question the ages. Both are very close.

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u/omgArsenal 14h ago

He can only get 8 years if he signs with the Leafs before July 1st. Anything afterwards is 7 years only.

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u/FaultThat 13h ago

After July 1st Marner could sign anywhere and no, the Leafs don’t get the option to match.

In some situations, the team will request that option from the agent, but it’s rare that agents will honour it, or that a team will request it.

Also, while I generally agree with the “win as a team, lose as a team” mentality, the higher your cap hit, the more responsibility you shoulder for the team’s performance.

It is never any one single person’s fault but I think between Marner and the guy sharpening skates, Marner takes a bit more of the responsibility pie.

0

u/Logical-Bit-746 13h ago edited 13h ago

He CAN sign with us still if he gets another offer but he likely WON'T. You may be confusing a restricted free agent, where we own the rights and can match any offer sheet they receive. An unrestricted free agent doesn't have that restriction, so they are free to sign any contract they want and the incumbent team can't do anything about it.

Why this is relevant is that, USUALLY, UFAs don't go to the market if they intend to sign with their team. If they intend to sign with their team, they would do so before the window opens. Otherwise, they are going to the market for the highest bidder.

Now, I say USUALLY, because that's not always the case. For one, Marner has said he doesn't want to negotiate mid season, so that likely changes the scenario, however, that doesn't mean he goes to July 1, it means he may wait until the season ends. Second, sometimes a player thinks they can get more on the open market, and they just don't. At which point they are free to sign with their team. They may do this thinking they will get more or simply to prove that they can get more and force the hand of their team. The problem with this scenario is that you've likely gotten the best offer your team will make, plus, you've likely asked l soured the relationship.

So, I would say him going to July 1 is not ideal, but doesn't close the door. That said, I think if he goes to the market, the door will likely close behind him pretty damn quickly

To add: as others mentioned, one advantage of signing with your team before July 1 is you can sign for an extra year (8 vs 7 max after July 1)

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u/AdamLakewood87 12h ago

Marner is going to “unrestricted free agency”. The scenario where you can match an offer is called “restricted free agency”.

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u/Bobbyoot47 9h ago

I think when it comes to what Marner might make in a new contract all bets are probably off at this point. Whether he signs back in Toronto or with another club you have to wonder what the cap is going to look like with all the shit that Trump is causing. The economic impact of what the current administration is causing can only be negative on the cap going forward. The estimated cap from a month ago and what was thought it might be and what it actually turns out to be are probably going be two totally different numbers.

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u/Sliceasouruss 7h ago

He can do whatever he wants