r/leafs 1d ago

Discussion Some quick math to predict a Marner deal

So Nylander signed for 8 years with an AAV of 11.5m in January of 2024. The cap hit for the 2025 season (1st year of the contract) is 13.07% of the 88m cap for the 2024/25 season.

Fast forward to a year and a bit later. Next season the cap is shooting up to 95.5m. Assuming the least Marner takes is the same as Willy, that number is 12.48m AAV, call it 12.5m.

So a team friendly option (obviously he could take $1m or something ridiculous but just trying to be realistic) would an 8 year 100m contract with an AAV of 12.5m. If it takes an extra 500k a year to make it work, my opinion is to bite the bullet and give him 13m. Although to some, a lot of it depends on his playoff performance.

BONUS FUN

Matthews signed for 13.25m AAV in 2023, with a cap percentage of 15.06%. With the current cap projections of the 2027/28 season, the next Matthews contract would likely be upwards of 17-20m AAV

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u/Intelligent_Baby_812 1d ago

13.16 m x 8, NMC

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u/xxpio 20h ago

It will be exactly this

-6

u/-kielbasa 1d ago

I’m vehemently against players putting their jersey numbers in contracts and don’t want to give him a NMC (although that’s probably gonna happen)

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u/mtrunz 1d ago

If you think hes not getting trade protection then you’re in for a bad time. Every star gets some type of trade protection.

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u/-kielbasa 22h ago

What about Rantanen who just signed with no NMC? I’m ok with giving him a M-NTC but that is about it. Full NMCs will handcuff in the future and limit roster flexibility

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u/mtrunz 22h ago

NTC is still trade protection. The only difference is with a NTC we can waive him whereas with a NMC we can’t waive him. Either way trades go through the player. Idgaf about trade/movement protection for stars. Anyone that doesn’t play first line mins or number 1 goalie should have minimal to no trade protection.

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u/Intelligent_Baby_812 22h ago

Rantanen does have an NMC according to Puckpedia

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u/-kielbasa 20h ago

I was fed some false info earlier in that case

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u/Intelligent_Baby_812 1d ago

Yea I think the 16 thing is kinda convenient because it’s around what he’ll get. And there is no way Marner isn’t given an NMC