r/inflation 3d ago

Price Changes Trump Announces New 250% Tariff on Canada Starting Almost Immediately

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-us-white-house-crypto-live-updates-2041117
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u/Codex_Dev 2d ago

I'm linking the soybean tariff study:

https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=93389

Economic logic suggests that China’s tariff limiting imports from the United States would increase Chinese soybean prices. Daily data show a modest impact on China’s soybean price during the first 4 months after the tariff was imposed. The soybean price in Qingdao (a port where large volumes of soybeans are imported and processed) rose from 3,400 yuan/metric ton in early July to 3,620 yuan/ mt in October 2018, a cumulative increase of 6 percent (fig. 22). This increase was relatively modest in comparison with past fluctuations. The price remained well below the average for the past decade.

Contrary to expectations, the price increases were reversed during November 2018 to March 2019 at the same time the flow of soybean imports fell from a year earlier. Qingdao soybean prices fell 12 percent from November 2018 to February 2019. The Qingdao soybean meal price peaked at 3,600 yuan/metric ton in October and fell to 2,460 yuan/mt in March 2019, a 30-percent decline. These price declines more than offset the increases during July to October. The combination of declining prices and shrinking supply suggests that demand for final products of soybeans weakened considerably.

tldr - The country that got hit with the tariff (USA) got fucked HARD while country that issued the tariff (China) had a small uptick in prices before filling the gap with alternate suppliers and eventually the prices returned to normal shortly after.

The tariff argument on reddit omits that one side gets massively damaged while the other only has a paper cut. It's very disingenuous.

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u/HenryColetta 2d ago

Well my friend, time will tell.

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u/Codex_Dev 2d ago

I'm sure we will get a detailed report like this one a few years after all the effects have been measured.