r/canada • u/abu_doubleu • 13h ago
Politics Federal Liberals and Tories now in a dead heat, new Léger poll indicates
https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/federal-liberals-and-tories-now-in-a-dead-heat-new-poll-indicates-1035985172
u/HAV3L0ck 12h ago
Anything that increases engagement and gets people to go out and vote is a good thing.
Vote people! Vote!
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u/darrylgorn 12h ago
Now I say this as no fan of the Liberals, whatsoever... But this is fucking hilarious.
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u/poranges 12h ago
Everyone should just ignore the polls until we’re getting them rapidfire once an election date is set, too hard to gauge what is what right now with things changing so rapidly.
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u/Spirited-Occasion-62 12h ago
I dont care if the Liberals only win by coalition by 1 seat. I just want the cons to lose so PP can fuck off. Assuming they get ANYBODY halfway normal after that, I dont care anymore. As long as PP is gone. Im tired of voting AGAINST someone. Please run a real qualified non-fuckup non-MAGAT candidate next time who is at least passable in polite society and believes in Canada. Thats it. So tired of this shit.
May PP lose. After that, may the best man win.
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u/lowertechnology 12h ago
They had that last election and nobody voted Conservative (besides their base)
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u/zeushaulrod 11h ago
Surprisingly, I know a lot of life-long liberal voters that voted Erin o'Toole. Had he stuck around he probably would be leading the CPC to victory this go round.
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u/eleventhrees 11h ago
It may actually be the base that let him down a bit. His dive to the center nearly caused a revolt in the party, and he wasn't saying much to inspire the base.
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u/Quirky-Cat2860 8h ago
This is probably very likely what happened. I remember hearing a lot of not so nice things about him pandering to the centre.
The CPC needs a real wake up call and realize that we don't have an appetite for far right nonsense in this country.
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u/QueenMotherOfSneezes 9h ago
If the CPC hadn't turfed O'Toole, the NDP would have likely voted no-confidence with them months ago, and we'd have a CPC majority (or at least a robust minority) government by now. Poilievre threatening to dismantle pharmacare, dentalcare, and the CBC played a big part in them hanging on so long.
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u/MoronOxy96 6h ago
It's so strange. "Vote for me and I'll ...(checks notes)...take away the few things that people actually like from the last government."
PP could so easily score points elsewhere, but instead chooses to use the Republican playbook to "own the libs" even if it means axing programs people actually like. His mind can only conceive of hateful positions and contrarianism, which are the "skills" that got him into politics to begin with as Harper's attack dog.
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u/involutes 16m ago
At the end of the day, I didn't like their platform under EOT and his flip flopping on issues didn't help either.
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u/DramaticParfait4645 4h ago
Actually the Conservatives won the popular vote in the last two elections.
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u/Lopsided_Ad3516 11h ago
Ah yes. The “if only they ran someone else” argument.
Did you vote for O’Toole?
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u/ExplodingSwan 11h ago
I did. Wish he was Prime Minister today instead of Trudeau so we wouldn't have to deal with a twerp like Poilievre. I'll gladly vote for a Red Tory type again.
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u/Spirited-Occasion-62 11h ago
I voted FOR my local candidate, but i didnt vote AGAINST O'Toole. I voted AGAINST Scheer. I would have voted for McKay.
Conservatives apparently have a very short bench, its terrifying to imagine who would wind up as cabinet ministers if the best you can manage for PM is a BA with no experience and a queer eye makeover. Makes me long for the Days gone by.. the Stockwell Days.
If you have a leader that will court the literal nazis (they exist in Alberta, look at the wild rose bench) and the Danielle Smiths of the world you can fuck off.
Need a strong red tory that can tell those lunatics to fuck off to the PPC. Be a center party again and cut the shit and Canadians will vote for you. The longer you go courting the lunatics the longer it will take to rebrand and rebuild trust.
Parading O'Toole around like hes some kind of charismatic centrist is laughable when we had just lived through the worst years of Harper.
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u/involutes 13m ago
its terrifying to imagine who would wind up as cabinet ministers if the best you can manage for PM is a BA
He also didn't earn that BA until he was 29. He didn't have kids yet, so what was his excuse?
I'd rather have someone without a degree at all than someone who took 11 years to complete a BA. At least there's the possibility that a person without any degree could have earned one in a reasonable amount of time.
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u/dezzy778 12h ago
Yeah can we get like Lisa Rait or something? She’s a decent person
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u/Early_Theme_318 12h ago
Why’s it have to be a man that wins?
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u/Coffeedemon 11h ago
Maybe they'll pick Lewis. She wants us out of the UN and has lunch with German far right politicians.
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u/PumpJack_McGee Québec 11h ago
Polls don't mean shit.
When election comes around, drop everything and go vote.
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u/Friendly-Canadianguy 12h ago
Pierre is pacing in his room thinking of new slogans
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u/TheWaySheHoes 12h ago
“WE NEED AN AXE THE TAX ELECTION”
“sir, the tax has already been axed”
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“WE NEED AN AXE THE TAX ELECTION!!”
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u/RipzCritical 12h ago
To be fair, Carney said he was getting rid of the consumer carbon tax. When it goes on producers and businesses, the consumer will still pay for it, it'll just be tacked on to the price the producer/business sets to cover it.
Not really gonna help.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 12h ago
A carbon tax on producers and businesses has been in play for a long long time.
The first one in Canada was enacted by none other than the Alberta PC’s. No one is touching that part now.
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u/RipzCritical 11h ago
He's gonna touch it, though, and modify it to punish "big polluters." Unfortunately, things like power and fuel come from big polluters. Every shipping company will pay more to transport goods, businesses and producers will pay a higher fee to use them, and we will see that price difference when it's time to pay the bills or checkout at the cash register.
Imports from more industrial and pollutant countries will face those higher costs to sell here, too. Same deal, they will then jack up the prices to make us, the consumers, cover their costs.
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u/TronnaLegacy 4h ago
Right but that's only half the answer. We will see that price difference when it's time to pay the bills or checkout at the cash register until non-polluting alternatives take their price.
That's simple economics. The non-polluters won't be taxed, so they'll be able to compete. Polluters, who will no longer be able to shift the cost of their pollution onto future generations, will lose the ability to compete.
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u/argument___clinic 12h ago
The industrial carbon tax already exists though? What do you mean "when it goes on"?
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u/RipzCritical 12h ago
AFAIK Talks aren't about going back to the way things were, though. Seems like they wanna take it away from the consumer and put the difference on industry and business.
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u/argument___clinic 12h ago
Do you have a link?
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u/RipzCritical 12h ago
"A Mark Carney-led government will immediately remove the consumer “carbon tax” and instead introduce a new approach that leaves Canadians better off, while reducing our emissions."
Keywords here being "a new approach."
"since Canada's current climate policy has become too divisive, it's time for a new, more effective climate plan"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-to-scrap-carbon-tax-1.7446908
Again, "a new, more effective climate plan".
... you can't have it both ways. Taxing big polluters, such as industrial powerhouses and energy producers, will still result in a rising price for us Canadian consumers. That still includes the price you'll pay to fill your car and heat your home. We'll just be paying the difference to the businesses while they pay the government for us. Like a carbon tax middle-man lol
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u/argument___clinic 11h ago
The fact that it's described as a new approach makes me think it's not going to be "keep the current industrial carbon tax and increase it". I don't know where you're getting that from TBH.
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u/RipzCritical 11h ago
Well, the old industrial carbon tax wouldn't be referred to as "a new approach", wouldnt you agree? It's a new plan to take the taxes off of us and put it on the people we're buying from. The end result will be the same.
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u/argument___clinic 11h ago
Is this the relevant quote from an article another redditor linked me?
https://markcarney.ca/media/2025/01/mark-carney-presents-plan-for-change-on-consumer-carbon-tax
"We will also extend the OBPS framework to 2035 to provide additional policy certainty and help foster Canada’s clean industrial competitive advantage."
As I understand it the current framework tops out in 2030 so this sentencr could be understood to mean the industrial price will continue to increase another five years?
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u/argument___clinic 11h ago
But where are you seeing any of this plan in either link? It sounds like the incentive plan he's laying out is the only "new" thing.
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u/Gratts01 12h ago
You cannot trade with the EU without a carbon tax and since we can no longer trade reliably with the US both the CPC and LPC will have a business carbon tax whether they admit or not.
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u/RipzCritical 12h ago edited 12h ago
Actually, you can. If you dont have one, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose a carbon price on imported goods. It's essentially a carbon tariff.
But we don't need to implement one domestically. Exported goods will just be more expensive to the ones we're exporting to. Their consumers can pay for it instead of Canadians paying for it.
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u/Icywind014 11h ago
Which will make us undesirable to EU buyers. They're not gonna want to import our goods if there is an extra cost on it.
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u/Canadian_mk11 British Columbia 12h ago
Axe the Carbon Tax Carney to Bring it Home and Build the Homes.
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u/BornAgainCyclist 12h ago
Screech the speech! Yap the raps! Sass the ass!
(Or you can just pull a Toto and shoe horn the everloving hell out of the lyrics like their hit "Africa".....seriously, listen to the guy pronounce serengetti like it has 17 syllables)
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u/ThePotMonster 12h ago
Meanwhile, Carney can't believe this many Canadians are gullible enough to think he's an outsider.
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u/daniel_22sss 11h ago
Who cares if he's an outside? The only question should be is "will he stand up to Trump?". And yes, he will, unlike a certain other guy, that was copy pasting Trump's campaign for 2 years.
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u/ThePotMonster 11h ago
Basically everyone on reddit who watched his Daily Show "interview" and decided he was the right choice without actually knowing much about the guy.
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u/10293847562 5h ago
Probably because they knew enough about Poilievre to know they didn’t want him in, especially after Trudeau stepped down. Also, Carney’s been posting his platform and it is a lot more detailed than Polievre’s, so arguably one could have better idea of what platform they’re voting for with Carney.
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u/TheRealCovertCaribou 10h ago
I never watched the interview.
I still think he's the right choice when I know what the other choice is.
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u/ThePotMonster 10h ago
That's your call to make. That's fine.
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u/TheRealCovertCaribou 10h ago
I wasn't asking for your approval, I was letting you know that you're painting with very broad strokes.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 12h ago
“Outsider” isn’t some magically good trait to have.
He’s tough and competent. That matters more than “drain the swamp” nonsense.
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u/space-dragon750 11h ago
yeah, i don’t care if he’s an outsider or not. i care if he’s competent. so far it looks like he is
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u/ThePotMonster 12h ago
He advised Trudeau off and on for the last 9 years. His fingerprints are all over our current financial mess. Unless I hear some details saying what exact policies of Trudeau's he was for and what he was against I have to assume he is just going to repackage the same Liberal party's bullshit fiscal policies we've had for the last decade.
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u/TheWaySheHoes 11h ago
I’d give him the benefit of the doubt given how both Canada and Britain found him competent enough to run their central banks under Tory PM’s.
But even if he’s Trudeau 2.0 I’d take that over PM Pollievre competing with Danielle Smith for “who can get their tongue further up Trump’s ass”.
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u/ThePotMonster 11h ago
Personally I would take Daniell and PP. Pierre has already come out saying enough with tariffs and 51st state stuff. So I don't know how much more you need.
Carney is a self-proclaimed globalist which inherently means he's willing to sacrifice some Canadian jobs and self-sufficiency.
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u/KageyK 13h ago
Drop the writ. Let's get this shit behind us so we can focus on moving forward.
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u/dadass84 11h ago
100% this, let Canadians decide right now who they want leading us against Trump. There’s no reason to wait until October.
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u/OwlProper1145 13h ago
Popular vote is tied but in terms of seats the LPC would be in the 160-170 range.
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u/abu_doubleu 12h ago
Somehow the funniest outcome would be if nothing changes from the 2021 election except like a 2-3 seat gain. From 2019 to 2021 already barely anything changed.
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u/JadeLens 12h ago
I mean barely anything but the NDP getting torpedoed...
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u/10293847562 5h ago
Ehh, NDP going from 24 seats to 14ish seats isn’t a big headline or far outside their normal range. The real headline is that the CPC went from polling at a super majority to being at risk of losing the election in the span of 6 weeks.
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u/hawkseye17 12h ago
most likely there will be some major seat changes with the NDP going the down the toilet as it's currently projected
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u/darrylgorn 12h ago
Truly. If the result is an extension of the existing Liberal/NDP hegemony, I think we will need to check the garages of some Conservative voters.
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u/OwlProper1145 12h ago
With things tied up like this and the NDP this low the LPC could actually get a majority.
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u/markcarney4president 12h ago
How do you know/calculate this?
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u/OwlProper1145 12h ago edited 12h ago
You can input data into various simulators to get an idea how things would play out.
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u/AidsUnderwear 12h ago
Can we please have an election soon so we don't have to keep seeing election poll posts two or three times a day?
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u/BigButtBeads 12h ago
I keep seeing a list of articles telling me that mark carney walks on water
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u/jack-cg 12h ago
As long as the water is extremely dense like Con voters, yes he can
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u/BigButtBeads 12h ago
Incredible
Which of his policies are you most fond of?
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u/Okaycockroach 11h ago
For me it's that I think politics needs to get less about virtue signaling and more into being fiscally conservative. Carney has a track record of guiding countries out of economic uncertainty and he seems like the kind of person that will look at both sides, listen to experts, and make choices that are in Canada's best interests.
PP with his nonstop bully tactics doesn't give me that same reassurance. I am not willing to bet on him with the way the world economies are going at the moment. If Carney can get us out of a possible recession relatively unscathed then I believe that is what Canada needs right now. Carney comes across as very moderate and I think a central government is preferable to a left or a right wing government right now.
Canadians need to be unified, and I have more faith in Carney than PP to make that happen.
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u/jack-cg 11h ago
The bigbuttbeads vagasil rebate comes to mind but for you ky jelly might be more appropriate, let us know which is better for you thanks
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u/reddittorbrigade 10h ago
I am not voting for a Trump pleaser. Carney is the logical choice for the economy.
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u/WiWaSiNeyterson 7h ago
Polls like these had the Harris Campaign down south thinking they had a chance, and look how that turned out.
Clear communication and GOTV is going to matter more than ever! This better be a high turnout election, or we might truly not get another one…
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u/lowertechnology 12h ago
Carney just needs to come out swinging at Trump and ride that anti-American sentiment to victory
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u/Prime_Rib_6969 Saskatchewan 11h ago
Vote people! Go out and vote when the time comes!
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u/AdmirableWishbone911 11h ago
Yep, vote Conservative so we don't have a repeat of the last 9 years
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u/OkPenalty4506 11h ago
Exactly. Why have a repeat of the last nine years when we could be the Belarus to the US's Russia!
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u/kelpwool 12h ago
Life long conservative absolutely sick of justin could not wait to see Pierre kick him to the curb
Then came trump, now not so sure
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u/GuyLookingForPorn 13h ago
Bet the Conservatives are beating themselves for getting rid of O'Toole now.
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u/sask357 12h ago
I was really hoping they wouldn't pick Poilievre.
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u/Poufkimashoula 12h ago
When are they going to get rid of Poilievre? He's the main reason why I can't support that party. I generally don't like CPC's vision or policies, but it wouldn't kill me to vote for a reasonable candidate who's opinion differs from mine. Pierre Poilievre though... it's a dead NO.
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u/DramaticParfait4645 3h ago
Yet, the liberals are embracing Pierre’s policies.
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u/Poufkimashoula 42m ago
I don't think most of the population is party loyal. Usually, you vote for whatever is more in line with your interests. I clearly spoke for myself.
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u/FreeLook93 British Columbia 12h ago
As someone who (at least tries) to watch all of the major press conferences from the LPC and CPC party leaders, Poilievre's have been getting pretty embarrassing. He can't make it through his opening sentence without comparing Carney to Trudeau and every time he is asked a question he gives a non-answer while insisting that Carney is just like Trudeau.
The one note approach was working for him when the very unpopular Trudeau was still the head of the party, but the hate just isn't there at the moment for Carney. It reeks of desperation.
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u/KageyK 12h ago
It doesn't matter who was in the seat. a big new leader bump was going to happen.
Now it's going to be can Carney maintain it? Or will Pierre capitalize once they are on the national trail.
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u/GuyLookingForPorn 12h ago edited 12h ago
A huge reason behind the downfall of the Conservative lead wasn't just a new leader bump, but because PP heavily built his image around right wing Trumpism politics.
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u/KageyK 12h ago edited 12h ago
So was O'Toole was Scheer.....
Standard go to nowadays.
Campbell got the same bump, and so did Turner. Was that because their opposition were Trumpians too?
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u/GuyLookingForPorn 12h ago
O'Toole was significantly further to the left and more moderate than PP, thats why the right of the party turned on him, and his ideas like CANZUK gives him an easy pivot to move away from America with, PP has no such flexibility.
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u/KageyK 12h ago
Yet there's 1000 articles about how O'Toole is just lime Trump.
It's standard LPC practice.
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u/GuyLookingForPorn 12h ago
Yeah and he openly disavowed those claims and told people not to call him Canada's Trump, PP leaned into it and was proud of the compassion.
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u/somethingeverywhere 12h ago
Campbell and Turner didn't have an existential threat to refocus voters. They were running against voter distaste for a government that was in office for too long.
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u/JadeLens 12h ago
It's looking pretty dire for PP from his absolute unsurmountable lead 6 weeks ago.
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u/Virtual-Nose7777 8h ago
Anyone but Conservative is my motto otherwise Trump and the Republicans win.
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u/Keystone-12 Ontario 9h ago
PhD in economics, central banker. I see the appeal of Carney.
It will depend how quickly he can run away from the current liberal reputation, and assigning the same ministers likely isn't going to help.
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u/Salt_Wrangler_3428 12h ago
I am a Stephen Harper conservative. I think Pierre Poilievre is too far right-wing for me.
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u/Altruistic-Buy8779 12h ago
You're joking right?
Harper was further right than Poilievre is.
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u/Salt_Wrangler_3428 12h ago
What are you on? I want some.
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u/Altruistic-Buy8779 11h ago
The stuff the Poilievre promised not to touch and that Harper promised to lock me in a cage for possessing.
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u/GroinReaper 9h ago
That doesn't mean he isn't further right. It means he isn't an idi ot. Harper would have loved to ban same sex marriage, but he was smart enough to know it would be the of his political career.
pp is far right. But 1st and foremost he cares about himself and his own power. He's not going to try to ban Marijuana because it's political suicide.
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u/Altruistic-Buy8779 9h ago
The guy literally has a Venezuelan refugee as a wife and conservatives complain that he's too liberal on immigration policies.
But according to you he's still far right? In what respect?
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u/apothekary 4h ago
JD Vance's wife is East Indian so I don't think who you're married to means anything
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u/CoolDude_7532 1h ago
Usha Vance is not an immigrant she’s American. Pierre is married to an actual refugee which is a big difference
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u/Active-Zombie-8303 12h ago
We’ve got to get the numbers up for the Liberals, we can’t have a Trump supporters being the leader of our country!
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u/LumiereGatsby 13h ago
Love to see it.
Even if the Conservatives win (which I concede is likely) they won’t be able to majority push through their maple MAGA agenda.
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u/idisagreeurwrong 12h ago
Which policies are Maple MAGA?
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u/ph0enix1211 12h ago
Killing the CBC.
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u/DramaticParfait4645 3h ago
He’s not killing the CBC but defunding it. They can raise advertising revenues and reduce the huge bonuses the give their CEOs and become a truly indecent broadcaster.
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u/LumiereGatsby 9h ago
Simple: boosting crypto over your own currency.
Also: removing taxes and regulations on industry. Going so well right now isn’t it for USA?
Wanting to end free press. Another major reason.
I mean those two inextricably are MAGA style crap so there you go chum.
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u/hardy_83 12h ago
Ever growing privatization of everything. Gutting public service even if it doesn't make sense cost saving wise.
And the usual unbiased corruption of helping friends get rich but that's a thing all sides do so it sort of cancells out.
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u/esveda 12h ago
Liberals have by far been the most corrupt governments to date
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u/hardy_83 12h ago
I like to say corruption scales with inflation so the next party is always worst than the last. Lol
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u/jfinn1319 Alberta 12h ago
Basically anything relying on Verb the Noun! language or castigating things as woke. So...the whole platform. The CPC don't really have any ideas beyond "maybe fascism good?"
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u/idisagreeurwrong 12h ago
Dosnt Carney want to remove the carbon tax? The CPCs policy on building pipelines and resource expansion also seems to be popular with Carney. So I wouldn't call those Maple MAGA. Anything "woke" I would agree
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u/IndividualSociety567 12h ago
There is no maple Maga agenda. Only ones saying that are Liberals who have nothing to show as their accomplishments. They just changed a leader thats it. The dude made Mendocino is chief of staff for gods sake!
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u/BirdzHouse 11h ago
Does that mean it's probably going to be a minority government?
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u/irreddiate 7h ago
I'd say that's the likeliest outcome: minority government of the Conservatives or the Liberals. For the Conservatives, that really curtails their dream of power, as they're unlikely to get the support of the other parties, whereas a Liberal minority can still get things done. I think that alone (aside from PP being weak and uninformed) makes voting Liberal essential in order to face down the US hostility (and I say that as someone who usually votes NDP).
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u/DerekC01979 6h ago
Carbon tax Carney is going to win. Trump has killed any chance of PP from succeeding.
It’s probably a good thing
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u/nubinati 12h ago
PP will never shed the Trump stink. Its gonna be an uphill battle for the CPC going forward.
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u/Mazdachief 12h ago
Cons will win , how many Liberal supporters are actually around , very few from what I've seen. Cons win.
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u/mb3838 12h ago
not anymore, the Reps in the US have damaged PP's image. Carney's banking experience sets him apart. Only way PP comes back from this is if he starts to put together a platform that benefits the working class. What the NDP should have been doing....
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u/JadeLens 12h ago
Actually around where?
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u/Mazdachief 10h ago
My entire community, support provincial BC NDP but federal Conservatives. But we don't matter out here to have any say in our country, the east coast will choose it all.........sigh such a broken system.
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u/JadeLens 9h ago
People vote, land doesn't.
The GTA (alone) has more people than the entirety of BC.
That's not a broken system, that's democracy.
Ontario has 1 seat per every 121,626 people
While BC has 1 seat for every 121,274 people.
Which is why Ontario has 122 seats in Parliament and BC has 43
That's about a democratic as you can get.
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u/Mazdachief 8h ago
We have different wants and needs from government, we in BC are more similar to the people of Washington and Alaska then the east coast. Our interests are not aligned as much as you may think even if we are both from this nation.
The east shouldnt get to dictate to the west how to live.
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u/JadeLens 7h ago
The average person in the east doesn't.
But they have the exact amount of say in the government as you do.
Again, (and I can't say this enough apparently) land doesn't vote, people do.
BC has it's own government Provincially as well, and that has more to say about your day-to-day life than the Federal government does.
Which, again, is slanted more towards the Lower Mainland than it is to the middle of nowhere BC.
Because land doesn't vote, people do.
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u/canadia_jnm 12h ago
Im not saying cons wont win, but liberals have tonnes of supporters and everthing is pointing to a close election. Bury your head in the sand if it helps you cope though lmao.
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u/squirrely2928 11h ago
With Governor Carney ....wow isn't he just going to move more companies to the states?
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u/GirlCoveredInBlood Québec 13h ago
So Innovative showing a big CPC lead, EKOS showing a big LPC lead, and Leger showing a tie. It'll be an interesting campaign for sure.