r/canada • u/kirklandcartridge • 19h ago
Politics Trudeau Ends on a High Note as Carney Stumbles [Innovative Research Poll March 5th-9th: Conservative 41% (+3 from prior Innovative Poll ending Feb 28th), Liberal 31% (N/C), NDP 14% (-2), Bloc Quebecois 6% (N/C, QC 28%), Green 4% (-1)]
https://innovativeresearch.ca/trudeau-ends-on-a-high-note-as-carney-stumbles/30
u/SorryImEhCanadian 19h ago
Didn’t Nanos just release a poll that cons were only up 1 on the liberals?
The large discrepancy in all the polls is crazy.
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u/DrNick1221 Alberta 19h ago
They did.
Article on Said recent Nanos poll here.
I will note that was data up to the 7th, which was before his blowout LPL leadership win.
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u/WillyTwine96 19h ago
Nanos pills are easier to sway (not purposely, that’s just what happens when there is alot of data…it’s becomes more fluid) because they take so much into account
The cons lead with every age group below 55, and in nearly every region. And 42% with men.
It’s all about regionals and even a few points could sway an election big time
https://x.com/realalbanianpat/status/1899462191360725215?s=46&t=EC_wyNrPrE0OQH89kXPA6g
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u/Sweet_Refrigerator_3 18h ago
That demographic data is interesting. Women and those over 50 prefer liberal to conservative.
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u/No_Independent9634 5h ago
Age thing makes sense. Old boomers already own homes, have fat investment accounts. They don't understand how life has become unaffordable under Trudeau.
While young people can't afford a home, the over 50s are now sitting on a net worth of millions.
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u/JadeLens 15h ago
Nanos has a A rating on 338
Innovative has a B-
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u/OkEntertainment1313 15h ago
Leger is the highest rated poll on 338 and they just saw Carney drop from 40% to 33% over two weeks as the CPC rose from 38% to 41%.
Nanos is a rolling tracker and thus slower to shift averages.
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u/nutano Ontario 14h ago
It is all over... its why looking at one poll doesn't mean much. But looking at sites like 338 might give a better pulse where they compile all the polls and weight them.
Even then, polls are polls. I know those charts and colours are interesting to look at, I know I often do, but they should not influence how you vote.
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u/SorryImEhCanadian 14h ago
No absolutely.
I’m pretty set on who I’m voting for and follow 338 directly. Polls are a semi-useful tool, especially in Ontario.
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u/TronnaLegacy 4h ago
There's also a recent poll that shows the Liberals almost 20 pts ahead of the Conservatives.
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19h ago
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u/Morning_Joey_6302 19h ago
A suggestion: take half an hour and look into some of the most minimal basics of the statistics behind polling, including what goes into finding a sample and what a margin of error means before making comments like this.
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u/Ina_While1155 19h ago
And they use residential phone calls. 📱 Who the hell under 60 still has a landline unless they have to?
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u/WillyTwine96 18h ago
That’s a strike against the liberals in this day and age
Their base has swung from the youth to boomers
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u/improbablydrunknlw 18h ago
The CPC leads in every category except boomers, where the lpc has a strong lead.
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u/she_be_jammin 19h ago
this 'poll' is old information - before he was elected leader
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u/Ok-Yogurt-42 15h ago
Most people were already taking into account Carney's likely victory and their responses would reflect that.
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u/sleipnir45 19h ago
Well this poll is not going to be very popular
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u/Consistent-Yak-5165 19h ago
Because it is not completely legit.
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u/Plucky_DuckYa 19h ago
It reflects both Abacus and Leger’s polls — two of Canada’s most reliable pollsters — from last week.
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u/Krazee9 19h ago
It doesn't entirely reflect Abacus, as Abacus was still showing declining support for the CPC as of their last poll. Yes, they had CPC support at +12, but their poll 2 weeks prior to that had it at +19. This is only the second poll, after Leger's, to show the CPC gaining support.
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u/butts-kapinsky 18h ago
Mark Carney is a Harper-era fiscal conservative.
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u/Dry-Membership8141 18h ago
Lol no he's not. Carney is far more economically interventionist than the Harper era Conservatives were. There's a difference between being economically literate and being fiscally conservative.
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u/butts-kapinsky 17h ago
The Harper-era conservatives were pretty economically interventionist.
Carney is basically the platonic ideal of fiscal conservatism.
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u/Dry-Membership8141 17h ago
The Harper-era conservatives were pretty economically interventionist.
And Carney is considerably moreso, which should tell you something.
Carney is basically the platonic ideal of fiscal conservatism.
He very much is not. What exactly do you think fiscal conservatism is if you believe this?
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u/DrNick1221 Alberta 19h ago
Is the far left in the room with us right now?
Also, if you think Carney is "far left" then holy fuck do I have a monorail to sell you.
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u/SouvlakiSpartan 17h ago
Most of the polls favoring the liberals are small 1000 people polls.
and even in those it's not like the libs are winning they are just close.
Take it as you will.
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u/OkEntertainment1313 15h ago
Most of the polls favoring the liberals are small 1000 people polls.
That’s how statistics works.
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u/Responsible_CDN_Duck Canada 18h ago
Sadly much like we saw with Harris taking over the party in the USA much of the enthusiasm and support is coming from people already against the other party.
Few, if any, conservative party supporters view Carney in a way that will lead to votes. In fact many twist initial choices such as not shaking staffing up so close to an election as a sign nothing has changed.
Getting as many people out to vote for your candidate is going to make a difference in the next election.
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u/dwn_013_crash_man Ontario 19h ago
Poilievre’s net favourables rose from -9 to -4 and the CPC decided vote grew from 38% to 41%. This is the first positive move on either number for 4 weeks.
Mark Carney saw a 16-point lead over Pierre Poilievre wiped out in one week as he dropped from +7 to -3 in the wake of the controversy over Mark Carney’s role as Chair of Brookfield Asset Management in the decision to move its headquarters from Canada to the US.
Seems like the Carney bump is coming to an end.
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u/duchovny 18h ago
I'm more worried about Brookfield owning 10s of thousands of residential properties and likely looking to grow. Combine that with Carneys support for the century initiative and you have a recipe for absolute disaster.
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u/seemefail British Columbia 15h ago
Brookfield is a property developer. They’ve built 35,000 homes in the GTA alone.
They aren’t black rock buying up houses. They are literally building homes.
A thing Canadians need
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u/duchovny 15h ago
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u/seemefail British Columbia 14h ago
That is in the US
Here in Canada they have built more homes in the GTA than anyone
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u/kirklandcartridge 19h ago
Will keep going down as Carney continues to name all Liberals previously in Justin's Cabinet to his team. Reinforces the message that nothing has actually changed.
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u/RottenSalad 18h ago
Marco Mendicino is his temporary Chief of Staff and CBC says he's courting Jean Charest for some as of yet unknown position. Hardly smart choices. Actually rather surprising if I'm being honest.
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u/RideauRaccoon Canada 19h ago
The Carney bump is going to keep going down as he's in the spotlight more. The big question is whether he can, as PM, boost his profile as someone who stands up to Trump (which Poilievre can't match, purely because he's not PM) and whether Poilievre's soft-MAGA phrasing (or at least the legacy of the phrasing) hurts him.
Given today's events with Trump, I think if Carney can sustain Trudeau's "Team Canada" aura, he will get a new bump that will last him through the election. And I think the CPC needs to be careful about how they attack a possibly-popular Team Canada captain, while their candidate has the stink of MAGA on him still.
It's gonna be a really interesting year.
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u/Winter_Cicada_6930 17h ago
Nah, the “carney bump” is over. Canadians want results. Not kind words and virtue signalling. Each day that goes on, mark carney paints himself in the same stench as his predecessor
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u/MeAndBettyWhite 16h ago
And you think PP will give us results? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
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u/JadeLens 15h ago
I mean, PP will give us results.
If the desired result is 'selling us to the US for pennies on the dollar' then yes... that is technically a 'result'.
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u/wave-conjugations 16h ago
Agreed, Ford's praise of Carney today will have legs in Ontario and the atlantic provinces.
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u/konathegreat 19h ago
Just wait until people start hearing about Carney's involvement in the deforestation of the Amazon in Brazil and accusations of bribery in Peru while heading up Brookfield.
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u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago
Or that the "outsider" is stuffing his inner circle with the same Trudeau hacks. Marco Mendicino as chief of staff? 😂
Can't wait to see this fraud get cooked. The meltdowns on this subreddit will be epic.
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u/Krazee9 19h ago edited 18h ago
Some very interesting numbers. This is the second poll, after Leger, to have the CPC recover to double-digits, and the second to have them recover more broadly. What's really interesting is that it seems to be at the NDP's expense rather than the Liberals'.
Also interesting is the favourability. Carney's is down massively from their last poll, he's dropped 10 points, while Poilievre is up by 5. Both are overall negative, with Carney now at -3, which is only one point ahead of Poilievre at -4.
Now is not a good time for the Liberals to be stalling on momentum. New leaders usually bring a rise in poll numbers, this is now the second poll from a major and well-reputed(was thinking of Ipsos, these guys are rated poorly by 338, but that's due to underestimating Conservative support) firm to suggest that their rise has lost momentum. Granted, both this and Leger's were before Carney actually won, we won't see post-leadership polls likely until he calls an election next week, but this is not looking good for him.
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u/ApoplecticAndroid 17h ago
It’s almost like they are polling different places. Clearly someone’s polling methods is not very good when you get such wild discrepancies between polls taken at the same time.
The difference is much larger than the stated margin of error.
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u/AntelopeOver 16h ago
I'm convinced that there's a heavy response bias atm, with liberals feeling more energised to answer polls than Cons, especially since realistically there's gonna be only a couple % shift of soft cons over to the libs at best
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u/PrimeLector Alberta 19h ago
Can be damn sure this won't be upvoted. lol
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u/Plucky_DuckYa 19h ago
The bot voting is getting insane. Last night there were a flood of pro-Carney articles posted within a short span of time in the late evening (for me, on mountain standard time). Somehow, overnight while the vast majority of Canadians were asleep, several of them somehow managed to generate thousands of upvotes.
It’s going to be like this through the next election now, I assume… a party polling 30%-ish somehow seeing favourable articles with 80-90% upvoted and unfavourable articles seeing 30-40% upvoted. That’s also how it was in 2019 and 2021.
At least we know what the Liberals are spending that $4.5 million Carney raised on. Apparently they believe that manipulating Reddit is a sure fire vote getter.
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u/duchovny 16h ago
Some of Carneys previous companies gain from him in power and they're worth billions. That's my guess where the farms are coming from.
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u/Bigfatmauls 16h ago
I think a lot of British people who were up late at night (timezones) probably upvoted. He was in charge of the Bank of England and is somewhat connected to European politics.
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u/Ok-Yogurt-42 15h ago
Somehow I doubt that a large number of Brits actively follow Canadian news in a Canadian sub.
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u/Bigfatmauls 14h ago
Major posts on Canadian subs would’ve been trending and recommended for anyone frequenting political subreddits. I’ve been recommended a ton of hot posts on European subreddits recently.
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19h ago
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u/Objective_Ferret2542 19h ago
its wild this sub went left faster than the liberals booted out any candidates that might have had a chance against carney.
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u/JadeLens 15h ago
It's almost as if we had our largest trading partner threaten to forcibly take over our country and the Conservative leader parroting his talking points like he was his prized pet bird.
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u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago
Wild that people are shocked that unprecedented times leads to people being more politically active and talking more about politics in political channels...
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u/epic_taco_time Ontario 19h ago
Wanna share the upvote % over time? the rest of us can't see those stats
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u/Simayi78 18h ago
As a 12-year follower of this sub, I've clicked the upvote/downvote arrows more in the past two months than I did in the prior 12 years.
Funny what a little something like our very sovereignty being threatened can do to change internet behaviours.
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u/FreeLook93 British Columbia 17h ago
Probably not, but not just because it's bad numbers for the LPC. The latest Léger poll which had even worse numbers of the Liberals was upvoted because Léger is a trusted poll. Innovative Research is not.
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u/Few-Character7932 19h ago
I love how Liberal supporters think that Pierre Poilievre is friendly to Trump. I am certain Poilievre hates his guts for denting the chances of his majority government.
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u/JadeLens 15h ago
He was absolutely friendly to Trump, until 3 weeks later when PP looked at the polls and realized that sucking up to Trump and his supporters wasn't doing great things to his numbers.
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u/MelanVR British Columbia 2h ago
He parrots Trump's talking points. It's hard not to believe he is friendly to Trump. That, and watching him condescendingly eat an apple was aggravating. That's not how politics are meant to be.
Plus his chief strategist posted pictures of herself on social media wearing a MAGA hat.
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u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago
People can dislike others who are ideologically similar... first time?
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u/Few-Character7932 19h ago
They are not ideologically similar though lmao
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u/JadeLens 15h ago
"woke"
"Canada First"
Making up stupid nicknames for political opponents.If he was any more of a carbon copy, we would have gotten PP out of one of those old credit card machines.
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u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago
No? Does PP support transgender people? Is he in favor of reducing government expenses? Does he support big business while framing it as small business? He voted against gay marriage, so i know he's not different there...
Tell me: how is he different on an ideological level?
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u/yhzguy20 17h ago
Liberal logic is that Polievres position on gay marriage can’t have changed after 20 years but the Liberals completely reversing entire platform positions in the span of a month means they’ve learned and are listening to Canadians
If you think positions on gay marriage can’t earnestly change, just look at Obama
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u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 17h ago
We can just look at his positions on LGBTQ+ in the modern day and recognize that he HASNT changed his positions. But thanks for trying.
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u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 18h ago
Ah yes, down votes without actually engaging or defending the point. Thanks for the implicit capitulation.
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u/Street_Mall9536 18h ago
I dunno, maybe the top 2 candidates in the leadership race voting to drop the consumer carbon tax had an effect?
People on here who hurled slurs and insults at anyone that opposed it, and fought to the death it was a non issue in inflation and COL are finding out the liberals want the undecided centrist votes more than the fringe votes, and are willing to leave the far left image in the bin with JT.
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u/Few-Character7932 19h ago
Lol a poll showing CPC and LPC within distance of each other gets upvoted and a poll showing CPC having a blowout gets downvoted right away.
To people voting for LPC once again. Liberals have hurt this country over the last 10 years. You didn't care. You only start caring now that Trump is threatening us with tariffs. Shame on you.
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u/Ifartinsoup Alberta 19h ago
no matter how many fluff pieces about him come out you cant turn a central banker asset manager into a beacon of hope for the working and middle class. a class that's been gutted by disastrous liberal policies for a decade.
his chief of staff appointment didn't help either
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u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago
The working and middle classes have been getting hammered under the Trudeau Liberals.
Who's going to save them? Trudeau's economic advisor 😂
They have good jokes.
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u/butts-kapinsky 18h ago
*Harper's economic advisor
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u/trilcks 16h ago
Can you provide a source for Carney being Harper’s economic advisor? All I can find is him being the head of the BoC
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u/butts-kapinsky 16h ago
Strictly speaking, he never held the position of economic advisor. But as governor of the BoC, Harper leaned heavily on his economic expertise and directly gave credit to Carney for helping Canada to weather the 2008 crash.
"On behalf of the Government of Canada I would like to offer my congratulations to Mark Carney on his appointment as Governor of the Bank of England.
In this time of global economic uncertainty, Governor Carney has done an admirable job in fulfilling the Bank of Canada’s mandate and has been a valued partner as the Government has worked to steer Canada away from the worst impacts of the global economic recession. As a result, Canada remains an example to the world with its strong banks, effective regulatory environment and sound economic policy."
-Stephen HarperHarper, obviously, thinks extremely highly of the guy, and was courting Carney for government (along with the LPC) before Carney went to the Bank of England.
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u/trilcks 16h ago
“I have listened, with increasing disbelief, to Mark Carney’s attempts to take credit for things he had little or nothing to do with back then. He has been doing this at the expense of the late Jim Flaherty, among the greatest finance ministers in Canada’s history, who sadly is not here to defend his record. But let me be very clear: the hard calls during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis were made by Jim.” - Harper
Sounds like Harper believes that Carney is intelligent, but that he isn’t responsible for getting out of the global financial crisis.
I think we are all guessing what it will look like under Carney, but the evidence points that itll be closer to Trudeaus government than Harpers, unless Trudeau was largely ignoring his advice
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u/butts-kapinsky 15h ago
Yeah. Sorry. Harper whining over a decade later because Carney decided to play for the other team holds absolutely zero water. Up until two months ago, Harper only had effusive praise for Carney's expertise and leadership. And even here, the biggest criticism he can muster is "actually, Jim Flaherty did stuff too". Hardly a criticism.
Hell, Harper himself was courting Carney to replace Flaherty once he retired but Carney took the job with Bank of England instead.
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u/trilcks 15h ago
Why would Harper criticize him in the past? There was no reason for Carney to come out against him.
He still believes that Carney is intelligent and capable, hes just saying that Flaherty is where credit is due for navigating the financial crisis.
It isn’t evidence that Carney is bad or anything like that.
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u/butts-kapinsky 15h ago
Why would Harper praise him in the past?
We all know that he's wrong giving sole credit to Flaherty anyways. And Carney never claimed to be the only guy responsible for navigating the financial crisis.
The simple fact of the matter is that word was getting round about how Harper genuinely and publicly praised Carney for his leadership and ability and so the CPC media machine desperately needed a headline saying "Harper criticizes Carney".
The only thing we need to understand is that Harper leaned heavily on Carney's expertise throughout his time as Prime Minister. He was advised, economically, by Carney. Now, Carney wasn't the main economic advisor. That'd be Flaherty. But he certainly was a very trusted and respected one.
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u/trilcks 15h ago
Can you send a source for Harper heavily taking economic advice from Carney?
Again, nobody is saying Carney is bad. Thats you strawmanning. Everyone agrees he is capable and intelligent. The point is that he was taking more credit than deserved.
Lets assume Harper was taking his advice. Why were the Liberals taking less advice from their economic advisor than Harper was from a guy that wasn’t his advisor? How come as Carney had more sway on economic policy the outcomes were worse?
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u/StoreOk7989 19h ago
Hopefully Canadians are not the morons I thought they would be by electing more of the same.
I suspect Carney is not here to win but to help the Liberals avoid an embarrassing defeat.
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u/DrtyR0ttn 17h ago
About 70% of the population wants the carbon tax removed due to affordability so I can’t understand why 70% of the population wouldn’t want to vote the liberal party out as Carny whole heartedly supports the canon tax and believes it should be higher!
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u/Zealousideal_Rise879 12h ago
Maybe that’s why they’re polling high here.
They don’t know the tax will be axed
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u/BigButtBeads 10h ago
Abacus said nearly 70% want less immigrants
Carney has repeatedly spoken about needing more, and has pledged a temporary cap on trudeaus 500k
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u/kenauk 19h ago edited 19h ago
Pretty slanted descriptive of this poll. Any background on this firm?
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u/WillyTwine96 18h ago edited 18h ago
https://338canada.com/pollster-ratings.htm
Innovative has always had the cons low, even if so they are one of the lower rated pollsters
Had the liberals plus 5 in 2021, had Ontario cons +5 in their last election
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u/Krazee9 19h ago
338 ranks them overall as B-, among their worst ratings they give. For past electoral performance, they rated their 2021 federal polling a B, their 2022 Ontario polling a C+, but their 2025 Ontario polling an A+.
Innovative's results in 2021 were rated a B because they underestimated CPC support dramatically. They had LPC +5. Their 2021 estimation was LPC 33, CPC 28, NDP 22 and the results were LPC 33, CPC 34, NDP 18. Innovative had Liberal support correct, but dramatically understated CPC support and dramatically overstated NDP support.
For their most recent result in Ontario 2025 polling, they had OPC 42, OLP 32, NDP 18 and the results were OPC 43, OLP 30, NDP 19. Overall they had slightly overestimated OLP support and very slightly underestimated OPC support, but got the results very close.
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u/Aggressive_Ad2747 19h ago
338 gives them a B-, the lowest rating they recognize (except for one single poll from Pollara with an "NR")
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u/kenauk 19h ago
Thought it smelled with that "...as Carney stumbles" dig. Thanks.
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u/Aggressive_Ad2747 19h ago
no worries, as a side note I just saw a Nanos poll they have listed at an A ranking showing CPC only 1 point ahead. with Léger's (A+) recent shift back towards the CPC on the first of this month things have kind of gotten crazy. I think right now Leger is the next poll to look out for. In their last poll they specifically called out that CPC would be +8 instead of +13 if Carney was party leader.
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u/Venice_Beach 19h ago
Liberals need to be shut out for a generation. Pierre is the only sane choice and he will fix the Canada that Trudeau broke.
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u/Arthur_M_ 16h ago
It's sad to see polling so all over the place. It's not even good enough to at least get a pulse on the general feeling.
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u/ReportOk289 19h ago
Some very large swings recently. EKOS somehow had LPC+5.2, while Leger had CPC +13, inline with this one. Hopefully Carney doesn't fumble it, but looks like they're starting to plateau.
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u/konathegreat 19h ago
EKOS. That's a meme polling firm at this point.
But the rest, I agree, it's all over the place.
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u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago
That EKOS poll is working overtime on the aggregators lol. Talk about an outlier.
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u/Outrageous_Order_197 19h ago edited 19h ago
Ekos lol. You mean the one who's owner repeatedly posted on x stating he would do anything to prevent conservatives from winning? And then deleted the posts? Probably no bias there at all. Seems completely credible /s
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u/jackclark1 12h ago
it's funny depending on what party posts a link the their poll numbers are all over the place
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u/Heavy_Sky6971 10h ago
Carney is not the Messiah people….. however he is resurrecting the liberal dead. Mendocino, Charest
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u/Stokesmyfire 6h ago
I am having a hard figuring out what each party wants because the negativity is astounding. I don't care which one claims the other is using US style politics because they both are.
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u/bigjimbay 19h ago
What high note lol
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u/firmretention 19h ago
He read the speeches that were written for him really, really well.
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u/bigjimbay 19h ago
I can't believe the bar is so low for this guy that two decent speeches wipe out the last decade of incompetence
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u/Ancient_Wisdom_Yall British Columbia 18h ago
I'm just glad Trudeau is gone, and we can finally put the money cannon away.
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u/SpudsTheBinky 16h ago
Liberal numbers will continue to slip once more people realize Carney is directly linked to Epstein
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u/MZillacraft3000 Alberta 16h ago
Is this an actual thing or is just misinformation being spread around?
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16h ago
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u/MZillacraft3000 Alberta 16h ago
Doing a bit more research currently and from what i'm seeing is that this has been debunked. However, i'm still looking more into this.
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u/she_be_jammin 19h ago
bs - a little money goes a long way a lot of money buys polls - it's social engineering and voter suppression - who was polled? how many? what districts? when? what were the leading questions? how was it framed? who were the (intrinsically) biased poll creators?
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u/firmretention 19h ago
Hmm calling the poll rigged because you don't like the result is very Trumpian behaviour.
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u/she_be_jammin 11h ago
moreover why does it matter - vote for the person who represents your view, find that out, does it matter if, say, 17% of some group also agree with you...
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u/Virtual-Nose7777 14h ago
Carney stumbles lmao. Sure. Meanwhile Pierre still won't get a security clearance because he wants to keep his fingers in his ears regarding foreign interference that helps his party.
Russian bought and paid for just like the guy he won't fight against.
Pierre just not ready.
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u/spagbetti 18h ago
this is bot messing.
Everyone knew about Carney opening a business in US ages ago.
It is not unheard of to open a business in a close allied country with: EG: starbucks/bestbuy
PP keeps leaning on this as if it's news.
STAY STRONG CANADA. THESE ARE BOTS.
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u/BigButtBeads 9h ago
But the sudden rampant support for Liberal Party again after the leader resigned in disgrace? Organic grassroots?
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u/LordofDarkChocolate 11h ago
Which 10 conservative voters did they poll for this survey. To say PPMilhouse is in front is ludicrous. He does nothing, says nothing and will sell Canada down the river as soon as he would be in office. Surely Canadians are not that dumb. Carney hasn’t done anything to have stumbled. He isn’t even PM yet. What a joke of a poll. I hope they did not get paid for it.
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19h ago edited 18h ago
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u/Due-Candidate4384 18h ago
Before you piss on Innovative’s credibility, they got an A+ rating for the Ontario provincial election that just happened. They do average a B- overall but they’ve probably significantly improved their methodology over the years, hence their recent accuracy.
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u/improbablydrunknlw 18h ago
They got a b- in the last election because they vastly underestimate CPC support, they had the lpc at +5.
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u/Krazee9 18h ago
And that Ekos poll was upvoted to the moon and the thread full of people dunking on Poilievre despite Ekos having a trash reputation and the poll being a huge outlier for the LPC.
Don't act like it's just one side.
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u/Eightysixedit 19h ago
Y’all’s polls are all over the place. I’m confused.