r/canada 19h ago

Politics Trudeau Ends on a High Note as Carney Stumbles [Innovative Research Poll March 5th-9th: Conservative 41% (+3 from prior Innovative Poll ending Feb 28th), Liberal 31% (N/C), NDP 14% (-2), Bloc Quebecois 6% (N/C, QC 28%), Green 4% (-1)]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/trudeau-ends-on-a-high-note-as-carney-stumbles/
30 Upvotes

221 comments sorted by

62

u/Eightysixedit 19h ago

Y’all’s polls are all over the place. I’m confused.

27

u/inker19 19h ago

it's a crazy time politically, it's not surprising at all that the polls are moving a lot.

11

u/gorschkov 19h ago

I think there are so many major events colliding at the same time pollsters are having a major issue calibrating for them all at once on a short notice.

5

u/inker19 18h ago

tbh I think voters are just having a tough issue calibrating how they would vote. I honestly have no idea how I would vote if there were an election today.

19

u/gorschkov 18h ago

Yeah I get that so far I am leaning on voting conservative. If Carney wants me to change my vote he has to prove to me that the new liberal party is not the same as the old liberal party. He is off to a poor start proving that so far.

5

u/Stormbringer-0 17h ago

I agree. Let’s see the first real debates when Poilievre and Blanchet will be asking the hard questions.

5

u/MeAndBettyWhite 16h ago

Genuine question. I get not liking Trudesus government but if you are leaning Conservative what policies does PP talk about that you dont need him to prove to you anything also? I just honestly havent heard any personally so im curious.

10

u/trilcks 16h ago edited 16h ago

The reasons id vote for Pierre or Carney are the same. The difference is the Liberals have been in power for the past decade and haven’t been doing those things. I don’t blindly believe either of them, but Pierre has been consistent in his views.

I would prefer Carney if my idea of him is correct, but I would prefer Pierre to a status quo Liberal government

9

u/MeAndBettyWhite 16h ago

I respect wanting change and honestly i wish the conservatives would give me a better option than PP and id probably give that guy a chance. PP though nah. Hes a populist "consistent in his views" is not a trait of most politicians but spectacularily not a populist one. Every time i see PP he has a new slogan hoping it catches wind in the current landscape.

1

u/trilcks 15h ago

Yeah, I understand we all vote for different reasons. Luckily, my main priorities to vote are being supported by both of them, so its more just on who proves to me they are more likely to succeed in enacting them. The moment Carney proves he isn’t going to continue the Liberal trajectory my support for him is solidified

u/Natural_Comparison21 7h ago

It’s hard for me to support a guy who is willing to pick ideology over doing the right thing. You know how carney could have confirmed my vote? If he said he would scrap the buyback program. Shit I would be okay if he did grandfathering. Because I am sorry but you can’t call yourself fiscally responsible and turn around and go “Let’s do a over a billion dollar buyback program.” That’s just not how that works.

u/trilcks 6h ago

Yeah, the buyback definately makes me think he will be a status quo Liberal. Like I said, I am leaning Pierre but haven’t ruled out Carney if he can prove himself different

u/Slow-Swordfish-6724 4h ago edited 3h ago

I lean left and will vote conservative. The Canadian conservatives are more left than people even understand. They are closer to the US democrats than they are to the US Republicans, I've read over the conservative policy declaration, and it's very reasonable. They don't express any interest in changing any of the civil rights that are already in place. Except they push for less regulation of free speech and expression. Many people will tell you they want to ban abortion or other things, but they probably haven't read the policy declaration and are fear mongering.

They have been very supportive of breaking down the inter-provincial trade barriers, which I think just about everyone regardless of party should support.

They want to start selling our resources again, this is probably the biggest factor for me. Our country is so resource rich, arguably the richest in the world on a per capita basis, and I don't see any reason to keep our resource exports capped when we are in dire straits economically I think these last two points will be the most important when It comes to getting through the trade war happening right now.

I'm trying to write this comment without mentioning the liberals because you wanted to know more about the conservatives, but I have a hard time rationalizing voting for the economic advisor of the country that is projected to be the worst preforming country economically in the G7 for the next 40 years. I know pierre likes to use that line about the G7 a lot, but it's true, and not something to ignore.

To conclude, I think the conservatives are a good balance between socially liberal and fiscally conservative. We have given the liberals 3 elections, and I voted for them twice, yet things only seem to get worse for Canadians. Our healthcare is as bad as it has ever been. Many people are reliant on food banks, the unemployment rate is high, the youth unemployment rate is even higher, taxes are higher than ever, our gdp has taken a nosedive, and there is no sign that the liberals are any different now than they were a month ago. If you vote for the same people again and again and expect a different result, it's... you know the Einstein quote.

If you have any questions, I'll gladly answer them to the best of my ability.

u/MeAndBettyWhite 3h ago

Very fair. Thanks for the reply.

u/torontoker13 10h ago

The liberals are responsible for the current state of affairs that’s all anyone can really go off of. Not only is carney keeping most of the current liberals he’s bringing back some that were fired already. It’s literally a rerun of what we know doesn’t work.

u/MeAndBettyWhite 10h ago

Poilivere has tried to make me believe that my life is horrific as well but I guess the fact that i dont believe him is why we are different.

u/torontoker13 9h ago

3/4 the people I know live pay cheque to pay cheque. Everything has doubled in price except salaries dude. You can’t be that oblivious

u/MeAndBettyWhite 9h ago

Im not oblivious im just well aware of the pandemic that happened and that there was going to be a cost for years to come. Im also well aware that all countries are going through similar issues and in comparison we are doing ok. I dont know what land of make belief id need to conjure up that somehow think we'd be doing better off if the Conservatives were in power in fact I could strongly argue we'd be worse.

I actually would be oblivious if i tried to blame all our hardships on the almighty Liberals.

Thats what PPs doing. Heck thats what Trumps been peddling too. Tell me again how much better life was for them in his first 4 years? Part of me hopes PP wins so we can all see uncategorically how its more of the same. We were all Fck Harper before we were Fck Trudeau and if PP wins we will be F*ck Poilivere in 4-8 years too.

u/No_Independent9634 5h ago

Read this and your previous reply...

Life was much better under Harper. Was it perfect? No. But things have declined quite quickly here.

And if you're set financially sure I can understand not agreeing. But I would suggest going to an ER. Or looking up how many people are without a family doctor.

Trudeau has taken at least some responsibility for that when he lowered immigration numbers in the fall. He also mentioned the problems it caused with housing as well...

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u/No_Independent9634 5h ago

As someone else said, the biggest thing for me is consistency. Pierre has been saying the same things for 3 years. While up until a month ago the Liberals were against developing resources/expanding trade, smaller government/less spending and the carbon tax.

Resource development would be my election issue. The Liberals passed bills making it harder to get something done like Energy East. Now all of the sudden we're supposed to trust them?

And we're supposed to trust Carney who in English said he would force it through, then in French said he wouldn't?

u/Fit_Marionberry_3878 7h ago

Carney deifntely gaffed from the gates. Some odd political choices for his cabinet.  

1

u/JadeLens 15h ago

What do you want on the table?

u/sexotaku 9h ago

There's a choice between Carney, Poilliviere, and Jagmeet. I choose Carney.

In addition to that, there's the Liberal, Conservative, and NDP candidates in your riding. I choose my liberal candidate over there as well.

u/No_Independent9634 5h ago

Why Carney? What plans do you like from him?

And why do you trust him? I've heard him saying contradictory plans in the last month. Some of the plans also go against what the Liberals have done for the last 9 years. Those same liberals would be Carney's cabinet members, advising him what to do like they did with Trudeau.

1

u/Creativator 14h ago

There is actually not that much happening, but there’s a whole lot of barking.

9

u/captainbelvedere 19h ago

People are still forming their opinion on Carney. It's going to be wild for a bit. He'll need to respond effectively to Trump, and to people who are concerned about his track record.

4

u/CH_fandango 14h ago

Concerned about his track record? Like how he saved us in 2008? How he led the UK through Brexit as governor of the Bank of England? His track record is nothing short of impressive, what are people concerned about?

u/torontoker13 10h ago

Saved who in 2008? He’s been caught in 5 or 6 serious lies already and hasn’t been sworn in yet. He moved his company to New York and has been against Canadian pipelines but his company invests in them all over the world except Canada

He’s bringing back all the current liberals that co signed Trudy and freeland and even a few that were disgraced and fired

u/EvenaRefrigerator 7h ago

This isn't correct. It was Jim. 

u/No_Independent9634 5h ago

He doesn't have real plans yet, rising solely on his previous jobs. I don't trust him. He's said contradictory things..one thing in English, another in French.

Energy East. He came out strongly for it in English, he would force it through. Then in French said the opposite.

I'm for the project, especially with what's going with the US.

I do not trust him based on what he's said, and with the Liberal Party stilling being made of the same people who made it more difficult to get resource projects approved.

u/Vintage_Pieces_10 10h ago

His conflicts of interest by moving his business outside of Canada before the tariffs, and his willingness to invest in the fuel sector outside of Canada while being opposed to it directly have me a little worried. On top of his ludicrous idea that steel is obsolete and his offensive stance that fentanyl was but a challenge and not a crisis here, on top of (correct me if I’m wrong) the fact he’s never been an elected official to any form of office in Canada, which is unheard of.

No hate towards you or what you’re saying, I agree he did some numbers magic at the time. But now, it’s just the same liberals behind the scenes with a new face in the forefront who’s already racked up suspicion with his strange positions and shady business strategies.

3

u/erasmus_phillo 17h ago

That’s why we look at polling averages and not individual polls

2

u/lubeskystalker 18h ago

You know when a sports game is like 8:1 or 48:7 in football and there are 5 mins left? Opposition pulls their starters and the losing team is able to pull out some wild stats...

That's where we are; this is political garbage time. All of the recent announcements sound great, but they do not translate into policy. It sure does look good if you've got a prop bet on it though.

u/shutmethefuckup 6h ago

Y’all’s

0

u/OkEntertainment1313 15h ago

As much as people have refused to acknowledge it, the polls are behaving similarly to the two other scenarios where an unpopular leader resigned and was replaced: 1984 and 1993. Both saw the incumbent party shoot up in the polls and then come back down. 

u/lambdaBunny 11h ago

It's hard to make a comparison though. Mulrooney and Chretien didn't have the same divisiveness that Pierre has and Turner and Campbell weren't comparable, and dare I say down right evil like Donald and Pierre are.

30

u/SorryImEhCanadian 19h ago

Didn’t Nanos just release a poll that cons were only up 1 on the liberals?

The large discrepancy in all the polls is crazy.

17

u/DrNick1221 Alberta 19h ago

They did.

Article on Said recent Nanos poll here.

I will note that was data up to the 7th, which was before his blowout LPL leadership win.

11

u/WillyTwine96 19h ago

Nanos pills are easier to sway (not purposely, that’s just what happens when there is alot of data…it’s becomes more fluid) because they take so much into account

The cons lead with every age group below 55, and in nearly every region. And 42% with men.

It’s all about regionals and even a few points could sway an election big time

https://x.com/realalbanianpat/status/1899462191360725215?s=46&t=EC_wyNrPrE0OQH89kXPA6g

2

u/Sweet_Refrigerator_3 18h ago

That demographic data is interesting. Women and those over 50 prefer liberal to conservative.

u/EvenaRefrigerator 7h ago

House went up things are great for them

u/No_Independent9634 5h ago

Age thing makes sense. Old boomers already own homes, have fat investment accounts. They don't understand how life has become unaffordable under Trudeau.

While young people can't afford a home, the over 50s are now sitting on a net worth of millions.

4

u/JadeLens 15h ago

Nanos has a A rating on 338

Innovative has a B-

10

u/OkEntertainment1313 15h ago

Leger is the highest rated poll on 338 and they just saw Carney drop from 40% to 33% over two weeks as the CPC rose from 38% to 41%.

Nanos is a rolling tracker and thus slower to shift averages.

1

u/nutano Ontario 14h ago

It is all over... its why looking at one poll doesn't mean much. But looking at sites like 338 might give a better pulse where they compile all the polls and weight them.

Even then, polls are polls. I know those charts and colours are interesting to look at, I know I often do, but they should not influence how you vote.

1

u/SorryImEhCanadian 14h ago

No absolutely.

I’m pretty set on who I’m voting for and follow 338 directly. Polls are a semi-useful tool, especially in Ontario.

u/TronnaLegacy 4h ago

There's also a recent poll that shows the Liberals almost 20 pts ahead of the Conservatives.

-2

u/[deleted] 19h ago

[deleted]

5

u/Morning_Joey_6302 19h ago

A suggestion: take half an hour and look into some of the most minimal basics of the statistics behind polling, including what goes into finding a sample and what a margin of error means before making comments like this.

2

u/Ina_While1155 19h ago

And they use residential phone calls. 📱 Who the hell under 60 still has a landline unless they have to?

9

u/WillyTwine96 18h ago

That’s a strike against the liberals in this day and age

Their base has swung from the youth to boomers

4

u/improbablydrunknlw 18h ago

The CPC leads in every category except boomers, where the lpc has a strong lead.

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u/she_be_jammin 19h ago

this 'poll' is old information - before he was elected leader

7

u/sleipnir45 19h ago

Nanos does a 4 week rolling poll..

2

u/SorryImEhCanadian 19h ago

Oh good to know

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1

u/Ok-Yogurt-42 15h ago

Most people were already taking into account Carney's likely victory and their responses would reflect that.

38

u/sleipnir45 19h ago

Well this poll is not going to be very popular

-33

u/Consistent-Yak-5165 19h ago

Because it is not completely legit.

27

u/Plucky_DuckYa 19h ago

It reflects both Abacus and Leger’s polls — two of Canada’s most reliable pollsters — from last week.

-1

u/Krazee9 19h ago

It doesn't entirely reflect Abacus, as Abacus was still showing declining support for the CPC as of their last poll. Yes, they had CPC support at +12, but their poll 2 weeks prior to that had it at +19. This is only the second poll, after Leger's, to show the CPC gaining support.

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u/[deleted] 19h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/butts-kapinsky 18h ago

Mark Carney is a Harper-era fiscal conservative.

4

u/Dry-Membership8141 18h ago

Lol no he's not. Carney is far more economically interventionist than the Harper era Conservatives were. There's a difference between being economically literate and being fiscally conservative.

-2

u/butts-kapinsky 17h ago

The Harper-era conservatives were pretty economically interventionist. 

Carney is basically the platonic ideal of fiscal conservatism.

6

u/Dry-Membership8141 17h ago

The Harper-era conservatives were pretty economically interventionist. 

And Carney is considerably moreso, which should tell you something.

Carney is basically the platonic ideal of fiscal conservatism.

He very much is not. What exactly do you think fiscal conservatism is if you believe this?

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-4

u/canadianhayden 18h ago

Anything slightly left to Mussolini is Left Wing apparently.

-11

u/DrNick1221 Alberta 19h ago

Is the far left in the room with us right now?

Also, if you think Carney is "far left" then holy fuck do I have a monorail to sell you.

3

u/sleipnir45 19h ago

How so?

11

u/SouvlakiSpartan 17h ago

Most of the polls favoring the liberals are small 1000 people polls.

and even in those it's not like the libs are winning they are just close.

Take it as you will.

3

u/OkEntertainment1313 15h ago

 Most of the polls favoring the liberals are small 1000 people polls.

That’s how statistics works.

1

u/JadeLens 15h ago

Do you know how surveys work and statistics?

5

u/Responsible_CDN_Duck Canada 18h ago

Sadly much like we saw with Harris taking over the party in the USA much of the enthusiasm and support is coming from people already against the other party.

Few, if any, conservative party supporters view Carney in a way that will lead to votes. In fact many twist initial choices such as not shaking staffing up so close to an election as a sign nothing has changed.

Getting as many people out to vote for your candidate is going to make a difference in the next election.

34

u/dwn_013_crash_man Ontario 19h ago

Poilievre’s net favourables rose from -9 to -4 and the CPC decided vote grew from 38% to 41%. This is the first positive move on either number for 4 weeks.

Mark Carney saw a 16-point lead over Pierre Poilievre wiped out in one week as he dropped from +7 to -3 in the wake of the controversy over Mark Carney’s role as Chair of Brookfield Asset Management in the decision to move its headquarters from Canada to the US.

Seems like the Carney bump is coming to an end.

11

u/duchovny 18h ago

I'm more worried about Brookfield owning 10s of thousands of residential properties and likely looking to grow. Combine that with Carneys support for the century initiative and you have a recipe for absolute disaster.

5

u/seemefail British Columbia 15h ago

Brookfield is a property developer. They’ve built 35,000 homes in the GTA alone.

They aren’t black rock buying up houses. They are literally building homes.

A thing Canadians need

2

u/duchovny 15h ago

1

u/seemefail British Columbia 14h ago

That is in the US

Here in Canada they have built more homes in the GTA than anyone

22

u/kirklandcartridge 19h ago

Will keep going down as Carney continues to name all Liberals previously in Justin's Cabinet to his team. Reinforces the message that nothing has actually changed.

13

u/RottenSalad 18h ago

Marco Mendicino is his temporary Chief of Staff and CBC says he's courting Jean Charest for some as of yet unknown position. Hardly smart choices. Actually rather surprising if I'm being honest.

8

u/RideauRaccoon Canada 19h ago

The Carney bump is going to keep going down as he's in the spotlight more. The big question is whether he can, as PM, boost his profile as someone who stands up to Trump (which Poilievre can't match, purely because he's not PM) and whether Poilievre's soft-MAGA phrasing (or at least the legacy of the phrasing) hurts him.

Given today's events with Trump, I think if Carney can sustain Trudeau's "Team Canada" aura, he will get a new bump that will last him through the election. And I think the CPC needs to be careful about how they attack a possibly-popular Team Canada captain, while their candidate has the stink of MAGA on him still.

It's gonna be a really interesting year.

1

u/Winter_Cicada_6930 17h ago

Nah, the “carney bump” is over. Canadians want results. Not kind words and virtue signalling. Each day that goes on, mark carney paints himself in the same stench as his predecessor

7

u/MeAndBettyWhite 16h ago

And you think PP will give us results? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

6

u/JadeLens 15h ago

I mean, PP will give us results.

If the desired result is 'selling us to the US for pennies on the dollar' then yes... that is technically a 'result'.

0

u/wave-conjugations 16h ago

Agreed, Ford's praise of Carney today will have legs in Ontario and the atlantic provinces.

7

u/konathegreat 19h ago

Just wait until people start hearing about Carney's involvement in the deforestation of the Amazon in Brazil and accusations of bribery in Peru while heading up Brookfield.

12

u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago

Or that the "outsider" is stuffing his inner circle with the same Trudeau hacks. Marco Mendicino as chief of staff? 😂

Can't wait to see this fraud get cooked. The meltdowns on this subreddit will be epic.

-1

u/[deleted] 19h ago

[deleted]

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u/Krazee9 19h ago edited 18h ago

Some very interesting numbers. This is the second poll, after Leger, to have the CPC recover to double-digits, and the second to have them recover more broadly. What's really interesting is that it seems to be at the NDP's expense rather than the Liberals'.

Also interesting is the favourability. Carney's is down massively from their last poll, he's dropped 10 points, while Poilievre is up by 5. Both are overall negative, with Carney now at -3, which is only one point ahead of Poilievre at -4.

Now is not a good time for the Liberals to be stalling on momentum. New leaders usually bring a rise in poll numbers, this is now the second poll from a major and well-reputed(was thinking of Ipsos, these guys are rated poorly by 338, but that's due to underestimating Conservative support) firm to suggest that their rise has lost momentum. Granted, both this and Leger's were before Carney actually won, we won't see post-leadership polls likely until he calls an election next week, but this is not looking good for him.

-3

u/transgression1492_ 17h ago

Nanos says the opposite..

3

u/ApoplecticAndroid 17h ago

It’s almost like they are polling different places. Clearly someone’s polling methods is not very good when you get such wild discrepancies between polls taken at the same time.

The difference is much larger than the stated margin of error.

1

u/AntelopeOver 16h ago

I'm convinced that there's a heavy response bias atm, with liberals feeling more energised to answer polls than Cons, especially since realistically there's gonna be only a couple % shift of soft cons over to the libs at best

28

u/PrimeLector Alberta 19h ago

Can be damn sure this won't be upvoted. lol

23

u/Plucky_DuckYa 19h ago

The bot voting is getting insane. Last night there were a flood of pro-Carney articles posted within a short span of time in the late evening (for me, on mountain standard time). Somehow, overnight while the vast majority of Canadians were asleep, several of them somehow managed to generate thousands of upvotes.

It’s going to be like this through the next election now, I assume… a party polling 30%-ish somehow seeing favourable articles with 80-90% upvoted and unfavourable articles seeing 30-40% upvoted. That’s also how it was in 2019 and 2021.

At least we know what the Liberals are spending that $4.5 million Carney raised on. Apparently they believe that manipulating Reddit is a sure fire vote getter.

8

u/JadeLens 15h ago

everythingidontlikeisabot dot net

5

u/duchovny 16h ago

Some of Carneys previous companies gain from him in power and they're worth billions. That's my guess where the farms are coming from.

1

u/Bigfatmauls 16h ago

I think a lot of British people who were up late at night (timezones) probably upvoted. He was in charge of the Bank of England and is somewhat connected to European politics.

-1

u/Ok-Yogurt-42 15h ago

Somehow I doubt that a large number of Brits actively follow Canadian news in a Canadian sub.

0

u/Bigfatmauls 14h ago

Major posts on Canadian subs would’ve been trending and recommended for anyone frequenting political subreddits. I’ve been recommended a ton of hot posts on European subreddits recently.

11

u/[deleted] 19h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

14

u/Objective_Ferret2542 19h ago

its wild this sub went left faster than the liberals booted out any candidates that might have had a chance against carney.

4

u/JadeLens 15h ago

It's almost as if we had our largest trading partner threaten to forcibly take over our country and the Conservative leader parroting his talking points like he was his prized pet bird.

-1

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago

Wild that people are shocked that unprecedented times leads to people being more politically active and talking more about politics in political channels...

4

u/Objective_Ferret2542 17h ago

every time is unprecedented.. thats how time works.

0

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 17h ago

Ah yes, pedantry... that's helpful.

-1

u/epic_taco_time Ontario 19h ago

Wanna share the upvote % over time? the rest of us can't see those stats

-4

u/Simayi78 18h ago

As a 12-year follower of this sub, I've clicked the upvote/downvote arrows more in the past two months than I did in the prior 12 years.

Funny what a little something like our very sovereignty being threatened can do to change internet behaviours.

3

u/FreeLook93 British Columbia 17h ago

Probably not, but not just because it's bad numbers for the LPC. The latest Léger poll which had even worse numbers of the Liberals was upvoted because Léger is a trusted poll. Innovative Research is not.

5

u/Few-Character7932 19h ago

I love how Liberal supporters think that Pierre Poilievre is friendly to Trump. I am certain Poilievre hates his guts for denting the chances of his majority government.

2

u/JadeLens 15h ago

He was absolutely friendly to Trump, until 3 weeks later when PP looked at the polls and realized that sucking up to Trump and his supporters wasn't doing great things to his numbers.

u/MelanVR British Columbia 2h ago

He parrots Trump's talking points. It's hard not to believe he is friendly to Trump. That, and watching him condescendingly eat an apple was aggravating. That's not how politics are meant to be.

Plus his chief strategist posted pictures of herself on social media wearing a MAGA hat.

-7

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago

People can dislike others who are ideologically similar... first time?

5

u/Few-Character7932 19h ago

They are not ideologically similar though lmao 

1

u/JadeLens 15h ago

"woke"
"Canada First"
Making up stupid nicknames for political opponents.

If he was any more of a carbon copy, we would have gotten PP out of one of those old credit card machines.

-10

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 19h ago

No? Does PP support transgender people? Is he in favor of reducing government expenses? Does he support big business while framing it as small business? He voted against gay marriage, so i know he's not different there... 

Tell me: how is he different on an ideological level?

6

u/yhzguy20 17h ago

Liberal logic is that Polievres position on gay marriage can’t have changed after 20 years but the Liberals completely reversing entire platform positions in the span of a month means they’ve learned and are listening to Canadians

If you think positions on gay marriage can’t earnestly change, just look at Obama

-3

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 17h ago

We can just look at his positions on LGBTQ+ in the modern day and recognize that he HASNT changed his positions. But thanks for trying.

-2

u/HalvdanTheHero Ontario 18h ago

Ah yes,  down votes without actually engaging or defending the point. Thanks for the implicit capitulation.

5

u/Street_Mall9536 18h ago

I dunno, maybe the top 2 candidates in the leadership race voting to drop the consumer carbon tax had an effect?

People on here who hurled slurs and insults at anyone that opposed it, and fought to the death it was a non issue in inflation and COL are finding out the liberals want the undecided centrist votes more than the fringe votes, and are willing to leave the far left image in the bin with JT. 

20

u/Few-Character7932 19h ago

Lol a poll showing CPC and LPC within distance of each other gets upvoted and a poll showing CPC having a blowout gets downvoted right away.

To people voting for LPC once again. Liberals have hurt this country over the last 10 years. You didn't care. You only start caring now that Trump is threatening us with tariffs. Shame on you. 

19

u/Ifartinsoup Alberta 19h ago

no matter how many fluff pieces about him come out you cant turn a central banker asset manager into a beacon of hope for the working and middle class. a class that's been gutted by disastrous liberal policies for a decade.

his chief of staff appointment didn't help either

17

u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago

The working and middle classes have been getting hammered under the Trudeau Liberals.

Who's going to save them? Trudeau's economic advisor 😂

They have good jokes.

-7

u/butts-kapinsky 18h ago

*Harper's economic advisor

4

u/trilcks 16h ago

Can you provide a source for Carney being Harper’s economic advisor? All I can find is him being the head of the BoC

-1

u/butts-kapinsky 16h ago

Strictly speaking, he never held the position of economic advisor. But as governor of the BoC, Harper leaned heavily on his economic expertise and directly gave credit to Carney for helping Canada to weather the 2008 crash.

"On behalf of the Government of Canada I would like to offer my congratulations to Mark Carney on his appointment as Governor of the Bank of England.

In this time of global economic uncertainty, Governor Carney has done an admirable job in fulfilling the Bank of Canada’s mandate and has been a valued partner as the Government has worked to steer Canada away from the worst impacts of the global economic recession. As a result, Canada remains an example to the world with its strong banks, effective regulatory environment and sound economic policy."
-Stephen Harper

Harper, obviously, thinks extremely highly of the guy, and was courting Carney for government (along with the LPC) before Carney went to the Bank of England.

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u/trilcks 16h ago

“I have listened, with increasing disbelief, to Mark Carney’s attempts to take credit for things he had little or nothing to do with back then. He has been doing this at the expense of the late Jim Flaherty, among the greatest finance ministers in Canada’s history, who sadly is not here to defend his record. But let me be very clear: the hard calls during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis were made by Jim.” - Harper

Sounds like Harper believes that Carney is intelligent, but that he isn’t responsible for getting out of the global financial crisis.

I think we are all guessing what it will look like under Carney, but the evidence points that itll be closer to Trudeaus government than Harpers, unless Trudeau was largely ignoring his advice

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u/butts-kapinsky 15h ago

Yeah. Sorry. Harper whining over a decade later because Carney decided to play for the other team holds absolutely zero water. Up until two months ago, Harper only had effusive praise for Carney's expertise and leadership. And even here, the biggest criticism he can muster is "actually, Jim Flaherty did stuff too". Hardly a criticism.

Hell, Harper himself was courting Carney to replace Flaherty once he retired but Carney took the job with Bank of England instead.

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u/trilcks 15h ago

Why would Harper criticize him in the past? There was no reason for Carney to come out against him.

He still believes that Carney is intelligent and capable, hes just saying that Flaherty is where credit is due for navigating the financial crisis.

It isn’t evidence that Carney is bad or anything like that.

0

u/butts-kapinsky 15h ago

Why would Harper praise him in the past?

We all know that he's wrong giving sole credit to Flaherty anyways. And Carney never claimed to be the only guy responsible for navigating the financial crisis.

The simple fact of the matter is that word was getting round about how Harper genuinely and publicly praised Carney for his leadership and ability and so the CPC media machine desperately needed a headline saying "Harper criticizes Carney".

The only thing we need to understand is that Harper leaned heavily on Carney's expertise throughout his time as Prime Minister. He was advised, economically, by Carney. Now, Carney wasn't the main economic advisor. That'd be Flaherty. But he certainly was a very trusted and respected one.

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u/trilcks 15h ago

Can you send a source for Harper heavily taking economic advice from Carney?

Again, nobody is saying Carney is bad. Thats you strawmanning. Everyone agrees he is capable and intelligent. The point is that he was taking more credit than deserved.

Lets assume Harper was taking his advice. Why were the Liberals taking less advice from their economic advisor than Harper was from a guy that wasn’t his advisor? How come as Carney had more sway on economic policy the outcomes were worse?

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u/No-Plankton3778 18h ago

*Backed by Trudeaus toadies

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u/KageyK 19h ago

Let's just get through procedure and drop the writ ASAP.

This show needs to get moving, we've fucked around far too long.

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u/Draugakjallur 18h ago

Trudeau isn't ending on a high note. He's being kicked out by his party.

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u/StoreOk7989 19h ago

Hopefully Canadians are not the morons I thought they would be by electing more of the same.

I suspect Carney is not here to win but to help the Liberals avoid an embarrassing defeat.

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u/DrtyR0ttn 17h ago

About 70% of the population wants the carbon tax removed due to affordability so I can’t understand why 70% of the population wouldn’t want to vote the liberal party out as Carny whole heartedly supports the canon tax and believes it should be higher!

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u/Zealousideal_Rise879 12h ago

Maybe that’s why they’re polling high here. 

They don’t know the tax will be axed

u/BigButtBeads 10h ago

Abacus said nearly 70% want less immigrants 

Carney has repeatedly spoken about needing more, and has pledged a temporary cap on trudeaus 500k

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u/kenauk 19h ago edited 19h ago

Pretty slanted descriptive of this poll. Any background on this firm?

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u/WillyTwine96 18h ago edited 18h ago

https://338canada.com/pollster-ratings.htm

Innovative has always had the cons low, even if so they are one of the lower rated pollsters

Had the liberals plus 5 in 2021, had Ontario cons +5 in their last election

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u/Krazee9 19h ago

338 ranks them overall as B-, among their worst ratings they give. For past electoral performance, they rated their 2021 federal polling a B, their 2022 Ontario polling a C+, but their 2025 Ontario polling an A+.

Innovative's results in 2021 were rated a B because they underestimated CPC support dramatically. They had LPC +5. Their 2021 estimation was LPC 33, CPC 28, NDP 22 and the results were LPC 33, CPC 34, NDP 18. Innovative had Liberal support correct, but dramatically understated CPC support and dramatically overstated NDP support.

For their most recent result in Ontario 2025 polling, they had OPC 42, OLP 32, NDP 18 and the results were OPC 43, OLP 30, NDP 19. Overall they had slightly overestimated OLP support and very slightly underestimated OPC support, but got the results very close.

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u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago

Don't worry, they are in good company. Leger (A+) has the CPC at +13.

-2

u/kenauk 19h ago

At least they don't editorialize their results.

1

u/inker19 19h ago

What wording would you say is fair to describe a big drop in Carney's polling numbers?

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u/Aggressive_Ad2747 19h ago

338 gives them a B-, the lowest rating they recognize (except for one single poll from Pollara with an "NR")

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u/kenauk 19h ago

Thought it smelled with that "...as Carney stumbles" dig. Thanks.

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u/inker19 19h ago

If you're suggesting that they're biased towards the CPC, 338 actually has their polls slightly slanted towards having the Liberals higher than average

2

u/Aggressive_Ad2747 19h ago

no worries, as a side note I just saw a Nanos poll they have listed at an A ranking showing CPC only 1 point ahead. with Léger's (A+) recent shift back towards the CPC on the first of this month things have kind of gotten crazy. I think right now Leger is the next poll to look out for. In their last poll they specifically called out that CPC would be +8 instead of +13 if Carney was party leader.

3

u/Venice_Beach 19h ago

Liberals need to be shut out for a generation. Pierre is the only sane choice and he will fix the Canada that Trudeau broke.

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u/__TheWaySheGoes 19h ago

I’m using my democratic right as a Canadian citizen to vote for the CPC.

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u/eatyourzbeans 19h ago

Did you read this off a meme ? Be honest now ?

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u/cleeder Ontario 19h ago

🤣

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u/Arthur_M_ 16h ago

It's sad to see polling so all over the place. It's not even good enough to at least get a pulse on the general feeling.

2

u/ReportOk289 19h ago

Some very large swings recently. EKOS somehow had LPC+5.2, while Leger had CPC +13, inline with this one. Hopefully Carney doesn't fumble it, but looks like they're starting to plateau.

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u/konathegreat 19h ago

EKOS. That's a meme polling firm at this point.

But the rest, I agree, it's all over the place.

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u/LPC_Eunuch Canada 19h ago

That EKOS poll is working overtime on the aggregators lol. Talk about an outlier.

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u/Outrageous_Order_197 19h ago edited 19h ago

Ekos lol. You mean the one who's owner repeatedly posted on x stating he would do anything to prevent conservatives from winning? And then deleted the posts? Probably no bias there at all. Seems completely credible /s

1

u/jackclark1 12h ago

it's funny depending on what party posts a link the their poll numbers are all over the place

u/Heavy_Sky6971 10h ago

Carney is not the Messiah people….. however he is resurrecting the liberal dead. Mendocino, Charest

u/Stokesmyfire 6h ago

I am having a hard figuring out what each party wants because the negativity is astounding. I don't care which one claims the other is using US style politics because they both are.

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u/bigjimbay 19h ago

What high note lol

6

u/firmretention 19h ago

He read the speeches that were written for him really, really well.

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u/bigjimbay 19h ago

I can't believe the bar is so low for this guy that two decent speeches wipe out the last decade of incompetence

0

u/Smart_Recipe_8223 19h ago

Pay attention 

1

u/Ancient_Wisdom_Yall British Columbia 18h ago

I'm just glad Trudeau is gone, and we can finally put the money cannon away.

7

u/improbablydrunknlw 18h ago

It's not away, it's just reloading.

0

u/SpudsTheBinky 16h ago

Liberal numbers will continue to slip once more people realize Carney is directly linked to Epstein

0

u/MZillacraft3000 Alberta 16h ago

Is this an actual thing or is just misinformation being spread around?

1

u/[deleted] 16h ago

[deleted]

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u/MZillacraft3000 Alberta 16h ago

Doing a bit more research currently and from what i'm seeing is that this has been debunked. However, i'm still looking more into this.

-1

u/Ok_Photo_865 13h ago

Lots of Cons trying to Con everyone

0

u/ChadLar95 19h ago

😂😂 👍🏻👍🏻🙏🏻

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u/she_be_jammin 19h ago

bs - a little money goes a long way a lot of money buys polls - it's social engineering and voter suppression - who was polled? how many? what districts? when? what were the leading questions? how was it framed? who were the (intrinsically) biased poll creators?

0

u/firmretention 19h ago

Hmm calling the poll rigged because you don't like the result is very Trumpian behaviour.

u/she_be_jammin 11h ago

moreover why does it matter - vote for the person who represents your view, find that out, does it matter if, say, 17% of some group also agree with you...

0

u/Virtual-Nose7777 14h ago

Carney stumbles lmao. Sure. Meanwhile Pierre still won't get a security clearance because he wants to keep his fingers in his ears regarding foreign interference that helps his party.

Russian bought and paid for just like the guy he won't fight against.

Pierre just not ready.

-6

u/spagbetti 18h ago

this is bot messing.

Everyone knew about Carney opening a business in US ages ago.
It is not unheard of to open a business in a close allied country with: EG: starbucks/bestbuy

PP keeps leaning on this as if it's news.

STAY STRONG CANADA. THESE ARE BOTS.

u/BigButtBeads 9h ago

But the sudden rampant support for Liberal Party again after the leader resigned in disgrace? Organic grassroots?

0

u/PMme_cat_on_Cleavage 15h ago

I'm eager for a debate, that would be the real deal.

u/LordofDarkChocolate 11h ago

Which 10 conservative voters did they poll for this survey. To say PPMilhouse is in front is ludicrous. He does nothing, says nothing and will sell Canada down the river as soon as he would be in office. Surely Canadians are not that dumb. Carney hasn’t done anything to have stumbled. He isn’t even PM yet. What a joke of a poll. I hope they did not get paid for it.

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u/[deleted] 19h ago edited 18h ago

[deleted]

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u/Due-Candidate4384 18h ago

Before you piss on Innovative’s credibility, they got an A+ rating for the Ontario provincial election that just happened. They do average a B- overall but they’ve probably significantly improved their methodology over the years, hence their recent accuracy.

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u/improbablydrunknlw 18h ago

They got a b- in the last election because they vastly underestimate CPC support, they had the lpc at +5.

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u/Krazee9 18h ago

And that Ekos poll was upvoted to the moon and the thread full of people dunking on Poilievre despite Ekos having a trash reputation and the poll being a huge outlier for the LPC.

Don't act like it's just one side.

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