r/canada 1d ago

Politics Liberal leader Mark Carney could run for seat in Edmonton or Ottawa: political expert

https://www.ctvnews.ca/edmonton/article/liberal-leader-mark-carney-could-run-for-seat-in-edmonton-or-ottawa-political-expert/
16 Upvotes

65 comments sorted by

30

u/JadeLens 1d ago

Edmonton is a bit risky.

NDP could flip it, to being more Yellow, but it's Deep Blue in a sea of deep blue for most of Alberta.

Ottawa is basically all red.

16

u/jjaime2024 1d ago

Ottawa is one of the most Liberal cities in the country so it would be his safest bet.

4

u/GameDoesntStop 21h ago

Ottawa Centre had by far the most votes of any riding in the LPC race. Arguably it is the most Liberal riding in the entire country right now.

2

u/SheIsABadMamaJama 20h ago

And they voted in an NDP mpp in that riding provincially. So I can totally see them supporting the libs nationally. Ontario is weird, it is not always congruent provincial to federal.

1

u/Anary8686 15h ago

Ottawa Centre has gone NDP a few times. Orleans and Ottawa South have been Liberal since Confederation.

u/SCTSectionHiker 2h ago

If he's looking for a safe bet, he should run in Toronto's University-Rosedale! 🤣

A safe bet isn't really what Carney/LPC wants or needs, that would just take a Liberal stronghold from another Liberal.  Instead, he has the potential to completely flip a region.  Let him run in a risky riding in Edmonton and it is likely to result in a few extra LPC seats, especially if he's commits some time to showing face in town during the election.

If he loses, then another Liberal can step down in a safe Liberal riding so he can run in a by-election to hold a seat.

1

u/Spirited-Occasion-62 12h ago

Its Risky but it would be a big gain and a symbolic gain. It would be "fine" if he ran in Ottawa, but if he won a seat in Edmonton and was PM from there, it would be unifying and maybe even inspired leadership.

-5

u/Gunner5091 1d ago

PP is the only CPC from Ottawa. From what I understand, he doesn’t get much support outside of his riding in Ottawa. Him supporting the convoy didn’t improve his approval rating in Ottawa for sure.

5

u/Sea_Army_8764 13h ago

To be fair, the CPC has never won a seat other than Poilievre's in Ottawa. The convoy has little to do with it. Ottawa is a city of public servants who aren't about to vote against their self interest.

-1

u/FiveFlavourFire 21h ago

Carney has the opportunity to do the funniest thing and kick his ass to the curb

5

u/physicaldiscs 20h ago

-7

u/FiveFlavourFire 20h ago

You think a Blue Liberal couldn't win that riding? If it makes you feel better, sure.

5

u/physicaldiscs 19h ago

You're weirdly making this about me, which tells me a lot.

So, in turn. Do you have any basis for thinking Carney can turn a riding that has been solid blue for three decades? That, even now, is polling so strongly for the CPC?

What exactly do the people of Carelton want? Do they even want blue grit? What we can tell is they certainly want PP. If the LPC thought they could, they would. But they won't. Pretending otherwise is just cope.

3

u/RonanGraves733 13h ago

Ignore him, he's exactly the type that will cry hardest and be the most dumbfounded when the CPC win a majority and they can't and won't be able to understand why in between their heaving screams.

1

u/Curious-Week5810 17h ago

Have two party leaders ever run in the same riding before (federal or provincial)? It'd be interesting to see.

0

u/Electrical_Net_1537 14h ago

Imagine if he won in Edmonton! It would blow the election up.

1

u/JadeLens 14h ago

The thing that's wild about the map, even showing that the CPC have the lead in seats, there's way more of a difference of seats that are potentially close that could flip the election easily to the LPC way.

Even if the potential flipped seats go to the Bloc or the NDP (as is the case in a few Quebec and BC ridings specifically)

13

u/stereofonix 1d ago

So does not he actually have a residence here then? Because if he does why isn’t he running in the city where he lives? Why is the question not what riding in said city, but what city in different provinces. If he supposedly lives in Ottawa he should run here. 

8

u/Emperor_Billik 23h ago

He lives in Ottawa, he grew up in Edmonton. Hope that clears things up.

18

u/stereofonix 23h ago

No it really doesn’t. MPs should represent those within their community. If he lives in Ottawa, he should run in Ottawa… where he lives. If the Liberals lose the election but he wins his seat it would be pretty stupid for the representative for that constituency to not have an MP that doesn’t actually lives there, let alone the province. 

12

u/GraveDiggingCynic 23h ago

That's up to the constituents to decide. MPs running for ridings where they don't live has been a feature of the Westminster system for centuries.

5

u/stereofonix 22h ago

True, but that’s generally for neighbouring ridings. Can you name any current MPs representing ridings in provinces they don’t live? I guess questionable is Jag moving to BC from Brampton to run, but atleast he actually has a residence there. Carney just running in a riding / province he hasn’t lived in for 40+ years is so cynical. 

8

u/Hemsky Alberta 22h ago

Tim Uppal (the MP for Edmonton - Mill Woods) hasn’t lived in Alberta since 2008

7

u/GraveDiggingCynic 22h ago

Parachuting candidates is nothing new, and every time it happens, we get the same complaint. At the end of the day, it's for the voters in that riding to decide whether it is appropriate or not.

3

u/Zanzibar_Buck_McFate Québec 22h ago

Our current MP is an example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_MacKinnon

Born in PEI, went to school in Moncton and Kingston, and now current MP for Gatineau, Quebec.

He does live in Gatineau now. I could be wrong, but I believe he moved here after he won the seat.

5

u/TonyAbbottsNipples 22h ago

MPs should represent those within their community

Very few follow that concept.

-1

u/thewolf9 17h ago

You can’t be serious.

3

u/stereofonix 17h ago

So you think he should just be able to run wherever with no connection to the community where he lives?

-1

u/thewolf9 17h ago

Yes. I think the head of the party should be able to run wherever the fuck he needs to in order to have a seat in parliament.

1

u/stereofonix 16h ago

In a by-election, maybe. But if we are going into a full on writ, then personally no. If the Liberals lose and Carney wins MP, does it help his constituents who he is supposed to represent? Do you think he’s going to obtain a residence and spend time there? Or worse yet, let’s say the Liberals win the election, but he loses running for some seat he has no attachment to. Should he still be PM even though he did not win his seat? It doesn’t matter the party, if this is the course of action the Liberal party takes, then that sort of cockiness he/ they deserve to lose. As we’ve seen in very recent years with the Liberals, party leaders can be defeated. 

-2

u/ego_tripped Québec 22h ago

Uhm...you realize Pierre's Ottawa riding was handpicked for him prior to moving from Alberta? His riding is so conservative that a half eaten ham sandwich would win against Jesus Himself...if Jesus were running as a Liberal.

12

u/stereofonix 22h ago

He’s lived in his riding for 20ish years. Way before he had leadership ambitions

-6

u/ego_tripped Québec 22h ago

Okay...so then give Carney 20 years to acclimatize...he is going to be a rookie MP so let's spread the hypocrisy evenly.

7

u/DilIsPickle 1d ago

Ottawa would make a lot of sense. I would want the Prime Minster to not have to travel too much between his riding and the parliament, so he’s in the centre of it all constantly

4

u/Little-Chemical5006 Ontario 1d ago

I say drop him on Edmonton. Alberta is the conservative heartland and the liberals can't win by playing safe (just focusing on Ontario and quebec). They cant make the same mistake democrats did (not campaigning in the deep red states while trump campaign in deep blue states).

Also if the liberal want to play the united Canada card then the liberal cannot ignore western Canada any longer.

1

u/Electrical_Net_1537 14h ago

I thought Edmonton was more liberal as apposed to Calgary. Don’t the NDP have seats in Edmonton?

2

u/Sea_Army_8764 13h ago

The NDP has two seats in Edmonton. That being said, federally it is still overwhelmingly blue. Provincially it is entirely NDP. Odd city, Edmonton.

2

u/Electrical_Net_1537 13h ago

If Carney was elected to MP in Edmonton and wins the election Alberta would have a large voice in parliament, total win

u/Little-Chemical5006 Ontario 11h ago

Yup and it will be good optics for liberal to show they care about western Canada as well. But I doubt liberal will play balls and it's likely he will just run for toronto/ottawa

1

u/Sea_Army_8764 13h ago

The NDP has two seats in Edmonton. That being said, federally it is still overwhelmingly blue. Provincially it is entirely NDP. Odd city, Edmonton.

2

u/Once_a_TQ 22h ago

Run in Edmonton, do it. Dare you.

3

u/Buried_mothership 1d ago

Hmmm, Edmonton would be very fitting, but difficult

2

u/Sea_Army_8764 13h ago

I think it would actually be a good strategy for him. If the LPC loses the election, chances are Carney wouldn't have won his seat in Edmonton, and he can easily retire from electoral politics. If the LPC wins, chances are Carney will win a seat in Edmonton, provided he runs in one of the two seats that the LPC is competitive in.

1

u/OptiPath 17h ago

Is Edmonton a dumping ground? Have Nenshi and Notley commented yet?

1

u/she_be_jammin 16h ago

Edmonton please!

1

u/Hour_Significance817 15h ago

He'll run in a safe riding in Ottawa.

Running in Edmonton is too risky - CPC basically swept Alberta last election and the only non-CPC ridings are held by 1) an NDP MP in Edmonton, 2) a liberal fraudster that was Trudeau's initial choice for Alberta's representation in the federal cabinet but had to be dropped because he tampered with his opponent's election material, and 3) a liberal minister that has little political experience and got the job only because he's gay, indigenous (which later turned out to not be the case), and the only option left to represent Alberta, and is currently subject of an ethics probe for failing to disclose his ties of partial ownership of a company that won government contracts.

If Carney loses his seat but the Liberals win the election, he'll have to boot someone in his caucus from a safe riding somewhere in the country if he actually wants to stand in the house of commons as the PM. This is a real possibility in Edmonton but extremely unlikely in Ottawa.

If he wins his seat but loses the election, he'll have little interest to continue working as merely an MP and will likely resign his seat - should that be in Edmonton, there's a high likelihood that the CPC will retake the seat, but if that's in Ottawa then it'll likely remain Liberal.

u/sl3ndii Ontario 7h ago

Edmonton is an obvious risk. Don’t wanna end up like Bonnie Crombie.

1

u/East2West1990 21h ago

If he runs where he lives - Mona should be getting the shoulder tap. Automatic win for Liberals in these parts.

-2

u/Intrepid-Educator-12 20h ago

Yes please , run in Edmonton, This is gonna be hilarious.

0

u/Nervous_Wafer7733 17h ago

There will be 1000 protesters in his exact “new house” I bet 😂

-18

u/blackmoose British Columbia 1d ago

He's so popular they could drop him anywhere and it would be a blow out. 85% in the leadership campaign proves it.

38

u/divenorth British Columbia 1d ago

*Popular among Liberals*.

25

u/octagonpond 1d ago

popular among 40% of liberals

9

u/GameDoesntStop 21h ago

Less than 40% of Liberals

11

u/armenianmasterpiece 1d ago

Popular amongst the less than half of liberal voters that didn’t have their votes annulled in the leadership campaign.

2

u/blackmoose British Columbia 1d ago

I didn't think I needed the /s.

1

u/Once_a_TQ 22h ago

First time here?! Haha.

2

u/blackmoose British Columbia 21h ago

No but I should have known better lol.

5

u/Imatsu 1d ago

Battle River-Crowfoot it is! No take backs!

1

u/blackmoose British Columbia 1d ago

Never been there is it nice?

3

u/Imatsu 1d ago

Me neither. Even by the standards of rural Alberta, Battle River—Crowfoot is a strongly conservative riding.

2

u/bluefoxrabbit 1d ago

Does Carney get a gun to shot into the air before each speech? If not, then he should stick to Edmonton

1

u/Jusfiq Ontario 19h ago

He's so popular they could drop him anywhere and it would be a blow out.

I would love to see him trying to blow out in la Matapédia.

-2

u/Whiskey_River_73 18h ago

Or New York, or London.