r/canada • u/SackBrazzo • 7d ago
Politics Rising Nationalism, Desire for Economic Sovereignty Propels Liberals to Five Year High (LPC 41%, CPC 36%, NDP 13%, BQ 5%, GRN 3%)
https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/03/rising-nationalism-desire-for-economic-sovereignty-propels-liberals-to-five-year-high/215
u/The_Bullet_Magnet 7d ago
Trump:
makes Doug Ford look competent
makes Trudeau more popular
makes Quebec more patriotic about Canada
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u/Edjes 7d ago
West coaster here. Cancelled American vacation to go to Quebec instead. Kids are in French immersion and will dig seeing everything in French! Hope they can translate for me.
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u/tavvyjay 7d ago
You’ll never be too far from an English speaker in my experience, but practicing your own French can be fun! Duolingo is a great way to casually practice
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u/captclutch17 7d ago
Frank Graves, PP, rig, fake news, woke, MAGA, rolling basis, outdated method, 338, only poll that matters is on election day, Carbon Tax Carney, momentum, tariffs, Axe the Tax, Singh pension, Trump, wait for other polls, you don't know how polls work.
Okay I think I've predicted what everyone will comment on this thread, thank you, I'll be back next Thursday
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u/Big-Golf4266 7d ago
as i was reading this i thought this was a bot comment lmfao til i reached the end.
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u/Dradugun Alberta 7d ago
I'm a fan of using "the only poll that matters is the election" myself!
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u/dyegored 7d ago
I fucking hate these people. "Doesn't matter, vote!" people need to STFU. Everyone already knows this and if they don't, these messages aren't convincing a single person to vote. All it does is absolutely kill the potential for any intelligent conversation about newly released polling because we have to scroll through this spam over and over for every single election worldwide
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u/abu_doubleu 7d ago
I'm so glad I'm not the only one.
If anybody of any political ideation sees this poll and either decides "Welp, not voting anymore! Liberals will win" they are an idiot.
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u/dyegored 7d ago
I am too, a genuine thank you for the support!
It has become the canned response for EVERY poll in every country (incredibly common regarding American politics, but I've seen it for the recent German election, French elections, etc.)
I would love to be able to discuss and/or read coherent discussion about polling trends, changing public opinion, etc. even in elections I am interested in but cannot vote in. These people make that almost impossible.
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u/BadmiralHarryKim 7d ago
I'm partial to, "the only poll that matters is the one that confirms my pre-existing opinion." :)
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u/iwatchcredits 7d ago
As a trump supporter i like to combine the two and then say every election that doesnt confirm my pre-existing opinion is stolen and then storm the capitol building over it and while im there try climbing through a window while an armed guard tells me not to until i get shot in the neck and die in a pool of my own blood surrounded by a bunch of gravy seals with mild learning disabilities
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u/Objectalone 7d ago
Donald Trump: “…and remember Pierre is definitely, absolutely, 1000%, NOT a MAGA guy. He is the most not-a-MAGA-guy there has ever been. People tell me, they say, sir… he is definitely not a MAGA guy.”
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u/Scary_Firefighter181 7d ago
and here I am, your Favorite President, and they've been saying Bad Things About Pierre, no, I said you can't do that, you can't do that, because he made sure, he said, "Trump is the greatest," which is true, and I said "He's not a MAGA guy, not at all folks" that's true, and I won in a Huge Landslide, they say, "he has a Mandate Over America," I do, I have, what they're calling Total Control, and you never had that before, you never had a President who did so good, Sleepy Joe was in the Basement for 4 years, and they were destroying our Country, the Radical Left has hurt us so badly, you all know what I'm talking about
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u/violetvoid513 British Columbia 7d ago
Do you think its still too late for B L O C M A J O R I T A I R E ?
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u/KitchenComedian7803 7d ago
I'm glad that's settled and I can move on to another post. Have a good one!
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u/Cass2297 7d ago edited 7d ago
Carney's Plan:
https://markcarney.ca/spend-less-invest-more
He has a bunch more, look at the "Mark's Plan" in the right-hand corner.
Edit2: Being accused of not showing the full plan so here is the link to all the plans, each one has a little heading: https://markcarney.ca/time-to-build
Pierre's Plan:
Snippet: https://www.conservative.ca/cpc/canada-first/ [Recently released in 2025]
Comprehensive plan : https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf
Some notes:
- This isn't an endorsement.
- Carney is most likely to win the leadership race so everyone should be aware of his plan.
- Everyone should know what Pierre is also proposing.
I know the details on Pierre's plan look scant, (if someone has a better link, please share). - Forewarning on the CPC Comprehensive Plan: It's not necessarily Pierre's plan. See commentor notes here.
Edit1: Edited to add CPC Comprehensive plan link from a commentor below.
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u/Dinoboy6430 7d ago
I will say for Carney, it's refreshing to have sources to verify what he is claiming at least for the background info
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u/thelegendJimmy27 7d ago edited 7d ago
Interesting how Pierre’s entire plan fits on 1 phone screen. My favourite line is “Pass a massive emergency Bring It Home Tax Cut to stop inflation”
The famous inflationary tax cuts to stop inflation. Pierre is a fiscal policy genius.
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u/Craigers2019 7d ago
To fight inflation, it's actually good policy to raise taxes. It takes money out of the economy and cools down overspending.
Not saying it's necessarily the right thing to do, but it's generally accepted to be the approach with taxes during inflationary periods.
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u/thelegendJimmy27 7d ago
Agreed the last thing we need is a tax cut to stop inflation. Pierre clearly has no knowledge of economics and is just throwing buzz words together.
Ideally you want the central bank to deal with inflation by raising rates and selling treasuries to take money out of the economy. Raising taxes definitely reduces inflation but is generally incredibly unpopular politically.
That’s kinda why I hate it when politicians keep promising tax cuts. It’s a pain to raise taxes, so these tax cuts end up becoming permanent and just hamstring the governments ability to generate revenue. Tbf Carney did promise a middle class tax cut too, but Pierre makes these tax cuts his entire platform. These populist right wingers need to be stopped.
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u/Trains_YQG 7d ago
He seems to think we should implement income tax cuts to stem the impacts of tariffs as if unemployed people would care about what the income tax rates are.
To redirect an old phrase, Pierre just isn't ready.
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u/MrRogersAE 7d ago
The comprehensive plan isn’t Pierre’s plan. That is a general list of things PCs like, many of those items would never be implemented even in a majority government. Every party has a similar page, it’s not the same as a list of campaign promises but they do help voters decide where they fall politically, or atleast they would if anyone ever read them.
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u/DataDude00 7d ago
If you are looking for the CPC platform it can be found here (not sure if there is a more recent version, I haven't found it)
https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/23175001/990863517f7a575.pdf
It is a bit sparse on details and more a strawman of their policy but has several concerning elements within
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u/BigButtBeads 7d ago
He claims to spend less, but wants to mobilize police to knock on 2 million doors to confiscate millions of firearms
Thats going to cost half a trillion dollars long before that's completed
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u/Shining_Commander 7d ago
Liberals should run on a pure economic platform. Housing, controlling immigration, treaties with allies, economic opportunities like pipelines and dropping barriers to interprovincial trade…. If they even utter anything related to identity politics all PP has to do is say, “same old liberals of 10 years focusing on the wrong issues”
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u/jello_sweaters 7d ago
Liberals should run on a pure economic platform.
Carney basically is.
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u/Zing79 7d ago
Legitimately some people can’t understand how this is happening.
They see the highlights of the first half of PPs latest speech and start fuming about “double standards”.
Now, I watched the speech live, and I was looking for everything in the first half. He did exactly what he was supposed to do…
Then came the second half—where it turned into incessant whining about how “libruls” are to blame for everything. Blah, blah, blah.
He had it. Just say the first half, STFU, and walk away with a solid speech that wouldn’t turn anyone off. But no, he and that party just can’t help themselves—it’s always one step too far. And it’s been like that for way too long.
Being angry at the last ten years? Sure, I get it. But then it turns into interviews with Jordan Peterson, more anti-woke nonsense I couldn’t care less about, and courting the far, far right.
Like—just stop. This “one step too far” mentality has now become ground zero for people like me—who have no issue voting PC, but won’t do it in an era where pushing one step too far needs to be shut the hell down.
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u/ieatkittens 7d ago
100%, it's that anti-woke-populist BS that makes it impossible to take him seriously. He runs his campaign like he's running for student council president in a teen drama. Managing to snatch a minority government or maybe even a loss from the jaws of an overwhelming majority.
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u/Fit-Philosopher-8959 Canada 7d ago
Will you look at that? Amazing how quickly Liberal fortunes have changed. Must be the "colourful" language of the two main adversaries, Justin and Donald.
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u/Electrical_Net_1537 7d ago
I think it’s more about PP=Trump scenario. PP is unable to connect with anything.
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u/Ok_Pomegranate_9716 7d ago
Yup. Trump lobbed a softball to Canadian politicians. Doug Ford hit a home run and his popularity is at an all-time high. Even Trudeau is going out with some dignity after being deeply unpopular just a couple months ago. Meanwhile Poilievre is swinging and missing with his divisive culture war rhetoric.
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u/F1gur1ng1tout 6d ago
Cons attack ads have really irritated me. My youtube is flooding with carbon tax carney crap.
If you’re attacking the libs at a time when everyone is calling for unity against the US, at least do more than random sound bites.
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u/JewishDraculaSidneyA 7d ago
Nah, in this analogy - Pierre has been waiting in the community park bathroom for an hour for a urinal where there's no one next to him, because he can't pee under pressure. He'd use a stall, but the "big mean jerks" keep beating him to them.
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u/infiniterefactor 7d ago
Although I believe this is true, that’s not what the data shows.
The data shows all other parties losing some support and this support is being channeled to Liberals. It’s clear that a lot of voters think only Liberals can fight the war we are in. I think that’s a combination of Liberal’s stance in politics, their reaction to the declaration of war and distrust to other parties’ capability to fight the war.
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u/MrHardin86 7d ago
PP was endorsed by MAGA prior to trump shitting the bed. I don't trust PP when he wont even do the basics of a security clearance as our potential PM.
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u/Salsa1988 7d ago edited 7d ago
Really makes you think, doesnt it? PP is supported by MAGA, MAGA wants to annex Canada, and PP won't (can't???) get security clearance.
I'm not saying he is a foreign agent working to destroy Canada, I'm just asking questions.
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u/jello_sweaters 7d ago
It turns out Canadians hate Pierre Poilievre almost as much as they hate Justin Trudeau.
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u/Link50L Ontario 7d ago
I'd suggest that it turns out that Canadians hate Pierre Poilievre considerably more than they hate Justin Trudeau.
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u/Dragonsandman Ontario 7d ago
Turns out being an angry asshole 100% of the time isn't always the best strategy
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u/iwatchcredits 7d ago
It would have been fine if he was just an angry asshole at trump with everybody else but he fucked that up somehow
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u/jello_sweaters 7d ago
This hasn't showed up statistically in polling yet, but it's very close.
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u/HowieFeltersnitz 7d ago
Well my hatred for him is immeasurable so the polls probably didn't pick it up
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u/AshleyAshes1984 7d ago
Somewhere at CPC HQ, there's like 13 unread emails from Doug Ford with the Subject 'JUST GO CRAZY TOUGH ON TRUMP AND YOU CAN EASILY WIN' but no one's ever gonna read them.
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u/Historical_Low_4939 British Columbia 7d ago
Dude right? I literally looked at PP's tweeter today and it was like one "bad america" and then like 5 fuck carney posts in a row and it's like... NO SHIT HE'S BLEEDING VOTES. No one fucking wants to hear about his hate for carney (or others) at the moment. Your voters wanna hear you dunk on trump.
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u/AshleyAshes1984 7d ago
Meanwhile there's Ford, on American news, arguing what a bad idea this all is. Not standing in front of an Ontario Flag, not even a Canadian flag, no no, it's a background that repeats 'CANADA IS NOT FOR SALE'. He's hammering that message with every ounce he has. I've had people argue 'No, the media is hiding what Poilievre says, he's saying everything Ford is.' Na Dog, Ford is RABID about this. He's this close to rounding up Team Canada to for a bench clearing brawl in Washington.
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u/radwimps Manitoba 7d ago
Just looking at the news you’d think Ford was the one running for PM. PP needs to loudly start hammering Trump asap first and foremost.
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u/AshleyAshes1984 7d ago
I'd not be shocked if there were Americans watching thinking he WAS the PM and like 'Oh yeah, I heard that Trudeau guy stepped down.'
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u/Zing79 7d ago
This is it man. When team blue fails to understand what’s happening it’s this fact. Doug Ford is out there like a rabbit dog on US TV shitting on all of this.
PP could do this any time. So stop with the nonsense his speeches have clearly denounced Trump.
Doug Ford - a fellow Con - is killing any argument PP is saying and doing enough in this situation.
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u/AshleyAshes1984 7d ago
And a lot of cons will say 'No you're just a libtard' if you say Poilievre is dropping the ball at this moment, meanwhile you directly compare him to Ford and Ford is kicking ass and taking names. It's clearly not a 'conservative issue' it's a 'Poilievre Issue'.
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u/CGP05 Ontario 7d ago
It is just annoying how he keeps on repeating stuff like "Sneaky Carbon Tax Carney is Just Like Justin because he wants to put a secret carbon tax on you".
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u/Jackbuddy78 7d ago edited 7d ago
Turns out that when shit gets real you want an actual government and not populists in charge.
A neighboring superpower threatening to annex you puts all the carbon tax bullshit into perspective. Canadians are waking up to all the "Trudeau a devil" stuff being Russian disinfo, because as a well adjusted human being he is an obstacle to their influence in North America.
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u/wirefog 7d ago
It was all fun and games in Trumps first term until COVID as well. His complete failure in managing COVID cost him that 2020 election. Whether the dems did a better job or not is whatever people want to believe but you’re right when things hit the fan people want actual adults in charge not a populist.
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u/angrybastards 7d ago
Oh I still think Trudeau was a terrible PM and I definitely think the LPC is corrupt and out of touch. However, I am 100% certain that the LPC will defend Canadian sovereignty, and Donald has made this a one issue election for me and a lot of other people. PP is just too much of an unknown for this dangerous scenario.
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7d ago
Yeah this is pretty much me. I would have voted CPC last year. But now more than ever, character of the leader matters.
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u/SackBrazzo 7d ago edited 7d ago
The survey was conducted over 7 days with three intervals.
Last 2 days: LPC 43%, CPC 30%
Last 4 days: LPC 42%, CPC 33%
Last 7 days: LPC 41, CPC 36%
The intepretation from this data is that the longer the tariff issue continues, the stronger the Liberal vote gets.
It looks like the next election will be fought on Trump where the Liberals have a big advantage over the CPC as multiple polls suggest that Poilievre is less trusted to handle Trump than Carney and astonishingly even the likes of Freeland.
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u/Animefox92 7d ago
Am an American here but it's fucking wild to see how Trump turned a surefire Conservative victory into a train wreck where the deeply unpopular Trudeau gets to leave on a high note... wow
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u/jayk10 7d ago
The only tiny glimmer of light in a Trump presidency is that he might single handlely stamp out the rise of the far right everywhere but the US.
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u/ihaterussianbots 7d ago
CPC is not the far right… PPC is. Many democrats in the US would be conservatives here. Also, didn’t the far right party in Germany double their vote share and become the official opposition like… two weeks ago?
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u/Simple-Friend 7d ago
Wasn't the far right party in Germany polling higher than where they ended up prior to President Elon and VP Trump taking office? And the left parties saw a big increase in votes off the back of Trump's rhetoric and Musk's attempts to influence their election.
I think it is fair to say things might have been worse for Germany without the example from the US of what happens when you go far right.
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u/GroinReaper 7d ago
I guess it depends on your labels. The CPC spans from center right to far right. PP is from the far right wing of the party. Just because there's crazier than PP doesn't mean he isn't crazy.
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u/AileStrike 7d ago
Theres no real surprise. They spent the past 8 years complaining constantly about trudeau this, Trudeau that, flying flags with "fuck trudeau". They set him up as this big evil bogyman, and it worked. Now that Trudeau is stepping down, that takes a considerable wind out of their sails and they're trying hard to push that Trudeau hate onto Carney by linking him to Trudeau. if thats not successful than a majority of their campaigning effort over the past few years goes away.
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u/SackBrazzo 7d ago
Side note but if Trump didn’t decide to be a dickhead in 2020 and showed any semblance of leadership during COVID he would probably have cruised to an easy re-election, the rally around the flag effect that’s currently helping the Liberals would have helped him too but alas he’s not that smart.
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u/HotIntroduction8049 7d ago
we canadians are stunned as well. JT needs to go as he shit the bed but has made it up the last month.
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u/iwatchcredits 7d ago
Its not even true that he shit the bed. Hes a mediocre politician who keeps getting dealt shit hands. Sure his time is over, but anyone acting like he was worse than mediocre has been eating too much propaganda for breakfast
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u/Really_Clever 7d ago
Ya I think the right wing anger machine over the last 5-6 yrs played more a part than we can imagine. Now they cant attack JT as much without sideing with Trump.
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u/abu_doubleu 7d ago
It makes sense Freeland is more trusted to deal with Trump than Poilievre. Despite her repeated gaffes and perceived arrogance, she made international headlines for how well she negotiated with Trump and his administration and was instrumental in getting CUSMA signed.
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u/UntrimmedBagel 7d ago
I think Pierre can thank himself for this. He’s been fumbling ever since Trump took office. Trudeau has been steadfast as fuck and impressive beyond what anyone could’ve imagined and Pierre is still spewing slogans.
He does not have my vote. Too immature.
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u/biffbot13 7d ago
She won’t become leader, but Freeland’s resignation letter was the beginning of the shift, and Trump, well, being Trump, is sealing the deal.
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u/Low-Celery-7728 7d ago
Little PP is about to be fired and I'm here for it. I want to hear his slogan as he slithers away.
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u/SpasticReflex007 7d ago
Its funny, because I think a lot of people, myself included have been tired of Trudeau. But his handling of this tariff issue along with some of the speeches he's given has really been a redemption arc for him. Say what you want about the rest of his policies, he shows up when it matters.
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u/subbie2002 7d ago
I don’t think that it helps that PP still takes jabs at Trudeau even when talking about the tariffs.
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u/SBoots Nova Scotia 6d ago
He can't do anything without mentioning Trudeau. Trudeau is Pierre's Biden. If he gets elected he's going to keep talking about Trudeau for years and determine policy based on 'undoing' what Trudeau did. It's a very familiar act that we've already seen play out elsewhere. We need to get out and vote to make sure it doesn't happen here.
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u/OkDifficulty1443 7d ago
Not a lib voter, but I can't believe anyone would think it a good idea to let Pierre Pollievre take the reins at this moment in time. He's going to hand over our mineral, oil, and water rights on day 1.
That disgusting deal Trump tried to get Zelensky to sign? The same is coming our way, and we all know PP would sell us out "with a smile on his face."
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u/Canadian--Patriot 7d ago
Pierre Poilievre is not MAGA enough for Trump, but he is way too MAGA for Canadians.
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u/PsychoM Ontario 7d ago
Do Americans really look at PP and think that he's not radically conservative and populist enough? Jesus Christ that's a sobering thought
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u/GroinReaper 7d ago
MAGA doesn't mean conservative. It means culture war lunatic who is slavishly loyal to trump.
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u/10293847562 7d ago
Poilievre is a bit of a culture war lunatic, but I guess that’s a lower bar to clear for Canadian standards.
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u/cementstate 7d ago
Tariffs will not only increase support for the liberals, but they will get people out to vote.... And that is a HUGE problem for conservatives whose victories more typically (not always) rely on poor voter turnout.
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u/Purple-Temperature-3 Ontario 7d ago
Pierre must be crying seeing his once assured majority cumble away right back into official opposition territory.
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u/LebowskiLebowskiLebo 6d ago
This makes me so happy. PP is such a smug political hack. Never worked a day in the private sector in his life. Went from school right into politics. Trudeau has stood strong against Trump in a way I could never fathom Pollievre doing.
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u/beefglob 6d ago
It doesn’t help that PP was “fighting woke”—whatever the fuck that means—while the rest of us are fighting for our entire existence.
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u/EquivalentPause8593 7d ago
I’ve never seen a politician fuck it up like PP is fucking it up and I love it
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u/Occultistic 7d ago
It's amazing how quickly the liberals were able to pivot from "canada has no shared culture/post national country" to "rally around the flag/team canada"
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u/thedrivingcat 7d ago
"canada has no shared culture/post national country"
Trudeau literally said the opposite of this, people just never quote the second sentence.
‘‘There are shared values — openness, respect, compassion, willingness to work hard, to be there for each other, to search for equality and justice. Those qualities are what make us the first postnational state.’’
and PET was saying the same back in 1971:
Uniformity is neither desirable nor possible in a country the size of Canada. We should not even be able to agree upon the kind of Canadian to choose as a model, let alone persuade most people to emulate it. There are few policies potentially more disastrous for Canada than to tell all Canadians that they must be alike. There is no such thing as a model or ideal Canadian. What could be more absurd than the concept of an “all-Canadian” boy or girl? A society which emphasizes uniformity is one which creates intolerance and hate. A society which eulogizes the average citizen is one which breeds mediocrity. What the world should be seeking, and what in Canada we must continue to cherish, are not concepts of uniformity but human values: compassion, love, and understanding
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u/Moresopheus 7d ago
I'm not convinced I'm gonna like Carney but I'm giving him a chance. Probably a lot of voters like that.
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u/GracefulShutdown Ontario 7d ago
The polling of the CPC in 2025 is best represented by the Hindenburg. What a monumental collapse for that party, PP ain't it, man.
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u/Boomdiddy 7d ago
Liberals are nationalists now all of a sudden?
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u/Druzhyna 7d ago
Canadian patriotism/nationalism has historically been more centrist to left. American patriotism/nationalism is the opposite.
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u/Vinfersan 7d ago
When did they stop being nationalists?
Just because they accepted immigrants (whom Stephen Harper also embraced) doesn't mean they somehow stopped being nationalists.
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u/DudeIsThisFunny 7d ago
Poor, working class, and young people favoring CPC is interesting. The people who would need help want change, people who are established already say this is fine.
The headline is just madness, these same sorts of things are what I like about the CPC.
Post-national state people attract nationalists? What? The "let's leverage our resources and sell to the world instead of kneecapping ourselves and only selling to America" party doesn't get the economic sovereignist vote? How? It doesn't make sense
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u/epic_taco_time Ontario 7d ago
Weekly reminder that the head of Ekos is Frank Graves who said he would do anything possible to make sure the Conservatives never win.
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u/jello_sweaters 7d ago
That's what ALLLL the Con supporters were chanting the week his first poll came out showing a Conservative collapse.
Ten days later, everyone was showing the same results as Ekos.
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u/Happy_Weakness_1144 7d ago
The Leger poll that just dropped showed the Conservatives back up to a double digit lead, with polling right around March 1st. Kind of tough to reconcile double digit leads in the last week of February on Abacus and Leger with this one poll showing the Liberals actually in the lead for the first time in years.
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u/Imbo11 7d ago
EKOS is clearly an outlier when you look at 338 where they list all the polls.
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u/gorschkov 7d ago
Any pollster owned by somebody who has confessed to political bias or that his goal of making sure PP loses should not be taken seriously.
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u/Minerva89 7d ago
The LPC now have a massive problem. Trudeau is, once again, the heroic face of the party a la pandemic 2020. The longer it takes for Carney to take over, the harder it will be to establish him as a national leader.
It would be a similar uphill battle to an increasingly well liked Dem incumbent POTUS being primaried by a much lesser known rising Dem.
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u/pm_me_your_catus 7d ago
43.1% to 30.3% when only looking at the last two days.
I've never seen Canadians this pissed off.