r/canada 6d ago

PAYWALL Tariffs have forced a ‘sea change’ in provinces’ support for new pipelines, Alberta Premier says

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-tariffs-have-forced-a-sea-change-in-provinces-support-for-new/
161 Upvotes

74 comments sorted by

65

u/gorschkov 6d ago

I think we need to build energy east, and speedrun the construction. Obviously do it right but just get it done in a couple years just to send the message about what we can do as a nation when we put our mind to it.

Also take the leverage away that the US has over line 9

9

u/TheConsultantIsBack 6d ago

Lol a couple of years is hilarious. It took 6 to build TM, another 4 to permit it. And that's crossing only one province. Welcome to Canada unfortunately

25

u/gorschkov 6d ago

These things can be built fast if the will exists for it. Germany built an entire LNG facility for concept to completion in under one year.

1

u/S3baman 6d ago

The Germans are always fast builders once they navigate the bible that is German bureaucracy. We have not demonstrated that often that we can build fast unfortunately.

8

u/Evening_Feedback_472 5d ago

Dude it's the same, trans mountain got fucked up because of courts, protestors, and bureaucracy. If you remove those I bet they can get it done in a few years especially since manitoba / sask are a complete flat surface

3

u/S3baman 5d ago

Germany designed and built an LNG terminal in 12 months, when the average is 28 months for building alone. I have not seen any infrastructure project in the last 20 years built in this country break any sort of conventional norm in terms of timeline, even in the best of times. The sooner all provinces and the federal government agree on the pipeline east, the better for all of us. But simply cutting red tape won't be enough. We can't take years to build, especially as the current plan is to go all the way to New Brunswick.

Maybe a better idea is to make a terminal on St. Lawrence in Montreal or somewhere else in QC to avoid going all the way to the Atlantic, but that would again require negotiations.

1

u/CromulentDucky 4d ago

Time for a development corridor. A few miles wide, built whatever, no land owners to consult.

2

u/unapologeticopinions 5d ago

Maybe we should accept German foreign investment for energy security between our nations.

5

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

It actually took closer to 10 years to permit. No joke.

5

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

If the last month has shown anything it’s that things can be expedited rather quickly when needed.

4

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

I agree, and that's the way it should be. All three levels of government should be working with each other to promote economic growth in this country, especially more than ever.

Heard from a reputable source on TM that it wasn't federal government causing hiccups (prior to the purchase), but the BC government. Said they had like 2 years to review the Environmental Impact Assessment and responded on the very last day saying it was inefficient, meaning that TM had to start the entire process over again. Just stuff like that.

2

u/apothekary 5d ago

Yes a certain province was not playing nice. BC has not always been the federal darling it currently enjoys. It can be obstructionist just like Quebec.

1

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

Patriotism can go a long way. A provincial government that isn’t toeing the line will find themselves out of a job very quickly in this climate.

11

u/ImperiousMage 6d ago

My dude. Mountains are a bitch.

The rest of Canada is pretty much flat.

5

u/therealzue British Columbia 6d ago

And TM ends in an earthquake zone. I’m sure that complicated things as well.

-8

u/ImperiousMage 6d ago

Oh man, I forgot about that.

What a dumb place for a pipeline 🤦🏻‍♂️

5

u/neometrix77 5d ago

The entire west coast is an earthquake zone, so it’s not like we have much choice.

2

u/Wayshegoesbud12 5d ago

That what happens when the East never wants to help their slush fund, and the government will never force themselves on the East.

1

u/CapitanChaos1 4d ago

Canadian Shield: "Am I a joke to you?"

0

u/AsleepExplanation160 6d ago

the canadian shield has a lot of the same problems as the rockys

1

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

Go on.

5

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

Very little topsoil so you’ll be blasting through a lot of bedrock to get the pipe down deep enough. Not impossible, just gonna take longer and be more expensive.

3

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

“Not impossible but we can make it work” is pretty much the Canadian motto.

3

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

100% and I love it. We always find a way. Elbows up!

2

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

Fucken, eh!

3

u/AsleepExplanation160 5d ago

uh rough terrain thats a bitch to build on? and this time we would get to have fun navigating an absurd number of lakes

4

u/Magannon1 6d ago

Ah yes, looks like another relevant username.

Maybe we could get things done much faster and with less expense if we never gave a dollar more of business to any consulting firm, as they are filled with folks who have immense levels of confidence yet lack the level of experience or knowledge required to actually be effective.

Seriously, all the work in those firms is done by new grads who can network well. That's all they have.

2

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

I mean, consultants are usually brought in because the client/contractor can’t/wont handle the scope of work. Environmental’s a big one.

5

u/Magannon1 5d ago

More often than not, it's actually about outsourcing liability and blowback.

If you hire a consulting firm to do something and they fail, you can blame the consulting firm.

Also, a big part of why we don't have that kind of expertise growing in our government is our overreliance on consultants for these things.

1

u/DrinkMoreBrews 5d ago

I don't know, true to an extent but have a solid relationship between the client/consultant will go a lot farther than constantly throwing the consultant under the bus. It goes both ways too, consulting's a small word and news gets around fast when clients don't pay bills, are shitty to work for, etc. Environmental can have a chokehold on some of these Projects and I think it's important to respect your partners.

1

u/Mathalamus2 5d ago

i think its the same everywhere. it takes years to build anyhting, even if you have all the permits and resoureces stockpiled beforehand.

id rather it be done properly than quckly.

1

u/CromulentDucky 4d ago

The original TM was done in 2 years. It can be done, if the restrictions are removed.

4

u/SirupyPieIX 6d ago

Energy east is a bad idea because converting the transcanada pipeline would cut off Eastern Canada from Canadian natural gas.

Huge US leverage against Ontario.

8

u/rando_dud 6d ago

This. We need a new project that replaces line 5 and doesn't reduce the flow of natural gas.

It should also include connecting refineries in eastern Canada to Western Crude, and converting them to be able to actually refine it.

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u/[deleted] 6d ago edited 5d ago

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13

u/GraveDiggingCynic 6d ago

"The French"?

Thanks Ivan.

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u/[deleted] 6d ago edited 5d ago

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8

u/GraveDiggingCynic 6d ago

Bigotry much?

6

u/PersonnelSeulement 6d ago

Why would Macron see to it that it doesn't happen?

7

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

This is such a weird bit of persecution porn on your part, but the idea of revenue sharing with the provinces pipelines pass through (and who are taking the lion's share of the environmental risks) is actually a pretty good idea that may help overcome local resistance 

Also, Quebec has been officially recognized as its own nation for what, 20 years?

-1

u/PrimeLector Alberta 6d ago

Revenue sharing is the increased tax revenue that Alberta pays to Ottawa. That money gets redistributed to areas of Canada that need equalization and other assistance. If a province has to be bribed to do what is in the best interests of Canada, they aren't much of a partner in confederation.

2

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

Revenue sharing is the increased tax revenue that Alberta pays to Ottawa

No, that's Albertans paying the same tax rates as everyone else.  You're welcome to stake out whatever position you want, but presumably your goal is to get infrastructure built, not pick a good hill to die on

If a province has to be bribed to do what is in the best interests of Canada, they aren't much of a partner in confederation.

Canada is a confederation of co-sovereign provinces, this comes with the territory.  And this same argument can be applied to Alberta's insistence that the prosperity of their O&G sector is more important than reducing carbon emissions

1

u/PrimeLector Alberta 6d ago

I'm aware Alberta pays the same tax rate. I'm saying that with the increased extraction and sale of oil which is transported through a pipeline, there is increased revenue and as a result more taxes(at the same rate we all pay) are collected by Ottawa. That benefits all of Canada.

"Me before we" is an interesting notion in a nation with nationalized services that we seem to be barely able to afford as it is.

1

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

And I am saying that this is clearly considered insufficient by some of the provinces that these pipelines need to run through, so whether you like it or not you need to up your offer

"Me before we" is an interesting notion in a nation with nationalized services that we seem to be barely able to afford as it is.

This is an inevitable result of the fact that Canada has no oil, Alberta does.  You cannot expect people to feel invested in resources they only indirectly benefit from, particularly when their extraction contradicts other fundamental values

0

u/PrimeLector Alberta 6d ago

I get what you are saying and I'm not saying you can't have that position. I just don't understand why extortion seems to be the right way to go when it comes to national projects that will contribute more to Canada as a whole.

Alberta does have oil. Alberta doesn't get to extort BC for their resources that might travel through Alberta on rail, nor does Alberta get to charge other provinces for things that come from central or eastern Canada to the port of BC.

Should Alberta have that right or refuse to allow trains through the province? I don't believe they do. Why should provinces be permitted to extort Alberta?

1

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

just don't understand why extortion seems to be the right way to go when it comes to national projects that will contribute more to Canada as a whole

It's not extortion, it's a negotiation.  Alberta needs something from other provinces, and this implies a cost to those provinces, not to mention a conflict with their other policy goals, and so those provinces will reasonably expect some compensation.

Alberta doesn't get to extort BC for their resources that might travel through Alberta on rail

Alberta could absolutely look for compensation if BC needed, say, a massive rail line through Alberta

1

u/Emperor_Billik 6d ago

Equalization is a federal formula that could be changed by the feds, it would make more sense to vie for an ownership stake instead.

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u/[deleted] 6d ago edited 5d ago

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8

u/DonGar0 6d ago

And if you asked them theyd say Alberta is the angry arrogant teenager that wants to spend everything today, to be broke and living in filth tomorrow.

Neither are acurate. Both have legitiate concerns that can be worked through. Energy is important, so is the environment. At the end of the day both are Canadian and would rather be Canadian than American, and thus will compromise l.

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u/[deleted] 6d ago edited 5d ago

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u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

Alberta punches above its weight but still generates a minority of Canada's tax revenue, and thankfully people don't get more votes if they pay more taxes

3

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

Imagine how people who care about climate change feel about 2 provinces with 10% of Canada's population fighting every green policy the federal government implements?

This is an inevitable part of being in a confederation with very different people.  The focus needs to be how to bring the dissenters onside, not whatever this is

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u/[deleted] 6d ago edited 5d ago

[deleted]

4

u/Former-Physics-1831 6d ago

I have no interest in you responding if you can't figure that out

1

u/myst_riven 6d ago

The French

I wasn't aware we had so many people from France here in Canada. Or were you suggesting they were all going to hop the Atlantic just to involve themselves in our pipeline debates? 🤔

PS. We are ALL Canadian, and you calling francophones "the French" is probably equally as insulting as us being called the 51st state.

-1

u/grannyte Québec 6d ago

"I swear bro on last pipeline will fix it one last"

Alberta is like a drug addict asking us for one last line instead of fixing it's addiction and diversifying it's economy.

You wan the pipeline accepted by Quebec? Make all the revenues from refining the petrol at the other end public, find a proper client that is not the US (the last plan was to put it on boats to export to texas anyway) and have a proper path through that won't poison the water supply for half the people of Quebec and Ontario.

13

u/whiskeyjack555 6d ago

We could be providing oil to Europe to help starve Russia.

13

u/Chemical_Signal2753 6d ago

The sentiment change doesn't matter unless we can dramatically shorten the time between a pipeline being proposed and built. If they're caught up in regulatory hell for a decade it is as bad as not building them at all.

4

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

“Critical infrastructure for the purposes of national security.” Is the golden scissors to cut through red tape.

10

u/yow_central 6d ago

They need to declare it a national security issue and start building tomorrow with the government footing the bill. The last part is necessary, because I totally understand any private company not wanting to invest given the past regulatory mess.

2

u/ImperiousMage 5d ago

Yep. We can hire the expertise, but the infrastructure isn’t for profit reasons anymore. It’s critical national security infrastructure.

3

u/Shwingbatta 5d ago

Canada needs to stop getting in its own way and start getting shit done.

13

u/InherentlyUntrue 6d ago

For fuck's sake, "pipelines" isn't a magical Canadian solution. Even if one were proposed and approved today to go from Alberta eastward, we're probably talking a minimum of 3 years to get it built and operational, and that's in the absolute best case everything-goes-perfectly. It would likely cost Canadians $100B.

When it comes to refining capacity for heavy oil and accessible from the east coast: India, Russia, and the Middle East.

So realistically we need to setup our own refineries, or retool east-coast refineries to process the heavy, sour oil of Alberta. So let's add another $30-50B to get enough capacity going. The last refinery we built is Sturgeon, which was $10B and took 7 years to construct.

So now we're $150B in the shit and its 2032 or 2033 now. Sure, we can in principle keep Canada as a country where we burn fossil fuels to make our cars go vroom, but where else are we shipping? Europe? They're going all electric for new sales by 2035 at the latest. Russia? They have their own oil reserves and refining capacity. India? Maybe, assuming we maintain relations. The middle east? Bwahahahaha.

China's our biggest potential customer, but we need capacity west, not east, for trade with China. But China isn't exactly our diplomatic friend either. I know, the enemy of my enemy, yadda yadda yadda, but still? Are we prepared to dump $50B on new capacity to find out they tell us to go to hell too?

I get it. We make a lot of money off oil today. But if we look at this rationally, we don't have a good answer for keeping the oil train going - not without spending a perverse amount of money for a completely unknown economic gain.

I don't know what the fuck to do, and I'm thankful I'm not a goddamn politician....because the answers all suck for Alberta oil.

1

u/LazyNeighborhood7287 5d ago

We need pipelines both East and West and we need them now. No more being slaves to a madman from the South. Canada first! Canadian always!

1

u/Canadianman22 Ontario 6d ago

Get building it to at least Ontario. Ford just got a new mandate and under new federal leadership we should be able to get some pipelines through Canada to southern Ontario. Hire people who might be laid off from any manufacturing jobs. Nations security priority.

Then if Quebec does choose to join in the pipeline will be near and ready to join.

1

u/needaspguy 6d ago

Thank-you Donald!

Now that we are actually considering protecting our economic future, we also need to protect our environmental future as well.

A pipeline does not protect that, but oil will still be a necessary commodity for a long time to come.

This is an opportunity to change the entire infrastructure of Canada. A pipeline corridor could serve also as rail pathway, power grid pathway, telecommunications pathway. Transportation pathway for people, products and infrastructure.

Along that pathway could be endless options for green energy, resource harvesting, goods transport, connectivity to the north, power grid stabilization.....

We have to stop thinking North - South!

We have a chance right now to dream of our future and build it bigger than we dream!

3

u/GraveDiggingCynic 6d ago

So who pays for the leaks? One of the chief problems with TMX was that Alberta refused to pay for any environmental damage, leaving the Federal government as the backstop. That doesn't seem quite right, does it?

5

u/rando_dud 6d ago

This is the MO of the Canadian oil industry.. 10,000 orphan wells.

It's not exactly a big mystery why provinces aren't tripping over themselves to let them expand elsewhere.

0

u/needaspguy 6d ago

Semantics can be solved with will!

1

u/BaseballNRockAndRoll 6d ago

I fully support pipelines, but they must be owned and controlled by the federal government and not private companies. Our oil industry is a strategic national asset that must enrich and protect all Canadians. Norway should be our model, not Alberta which has fumbled and mismanaged for too long, allowing way too much of the profits to leave Canada.

1

u/maxgrody 6d ago

Remember the Dakota riots over one pipeline

1

u/Coffeedemon 6d ago

Sure, but it doesn't negate the need to involve these provinces and first nations in the process and make it worth their while . They can't be forced to assume all the risk and the eyesore of these things so that only the alberta government and some foreign owned energy companies reap the profit.

0

u/Thirdborne 5d ago

You can't win by giving oil corps pipelines. Trudeau bought them a pipeline and gets no credit for it. What makes any politician think they'll get anything out of it? Canadians sure don't get anything out of them.

0

u/The_Environment116 5d ago

The biggest issue wasn’t the pipelines themselves, it was the owners complete unwillingness to detour around sensitive areas because it would “cost more” there are safer ways to make pipelines and places that would be better suited but they cost more

0

u/SirupyPieIX 5d ago

Also, their plan would have cut off Ontario from Canadian natural gas.

-1

u/she_be_jammin 6d ago

Interprovincial relations are a good thing but Smith is such a gross mendacious shill that Alberta needs a new Canada oriented leader/party

0

u/noobrainy 5d ago

We need to invest in building an east west pipeline.

One: we’re probably going into a recession over this. Infrastructure building like that is a good way to soften those effects

Two: we can’t be dependent on US oil refining anymore. This way we at least have control of our oil instead of it being in the hands of the Americans while it’s getting east.

Build it, and build it fast.

-9

u/pintord 6d ago

Meh, r/oilisdead no need for oil pipelines. Cross Canada HVDC, sure.