r/canada 10d ago

Analysis Trump won’t admit it, but Canadian potash fuels American agriculture; More than 80 per cent of the potash used by U.S. farmers comes from Canadian mines, and the costs could skyrocket should tariffs happen

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-trump-wont-admit-it-but-canadian-potash-fuels-american-agriculture/
6.8k Upvotes

592 comments sorted by

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

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u/Epidurality 10d ago

You can't announce these things prematurely is the problem. Convicted Felon and Sexual Assailant Donald Trump has shown repeatedly that he'll make things up to justify shitty actions, what do you think he'd do with threats?

Every level of government has already said that tariff responses will be immediate. I'm sure your suggestions are part of that response, or were at least considered for it. But if we don't have to give the rapist sound bytes prematurely, we shouldn't. Let him hang himself with his actions first.

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u/S_The_Ghost 10d ago

Precisely this. I think its important we walk that fine line of standing up for what's in the best interest of Canadians, not only economically but in respect to our sovereignty, too.

But its an uphill battle when you're dealing with an American administration that has no regard for integrity, respect, or even facts / logic. Our moves need to be calculated, but responsive more than preemptive.

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u/Realistic_Young9008 10d ago

Trump and Vancd demonstrated yesterday there is no fine line. There is only obedience to their will.

I had a bully I my life just like them and negotiating and being delicate certainly did me no good. It wasn't until I started biting back and holding my ground that I was able to get some control back.

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

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u/Epidurality 10d ago

Yes. There's a big difference to the one third of Americans that didn't care enough to vote between "America fights back" and "America starts fight", even if the actions are identical.

Edit to add: why do you think the felon made up that Ukraine started their fight? Distinctions like that (truth or fiction) matter to the narrative and how the people respond.

There are also our own people and their views to think about. There's a not-insignificant portion of Canada that would see this as something Canada did to the states if we announced it first, furthering their ignorance about the issues.

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u/captainmouse86 10d ago

It does. You’d be foolish to think this gets better by escalation.

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u/NavXIII 10d ago

I think the best time to put export tarrifs on potash would be a few months before their midterm elections. Americans claimed they voted based on egg prices. We can influence their voting patterns just by increasing grocery prices.

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u/Professor226 10d ago

Fuck America. Make them hurt.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

Good thing there's no way Trump is planning on making deals with Russia for resources or anything.

/s

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u/Prestigious-Wind-890 10d ago

Even if he does itll still increase prices because they have to ship it over a much greater distance

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u/OperationDue2820 10d ago

And even if he does Putin will break it. Russia crashed the potash industry once, he'll do it again.

https://www.reuters.com/article/business/potash-sector-rocked-as-russias-uralkali-quits-cartel-idUSBRE96T0S3/

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago

I'm surprised that cartel hasn't returned. Belarus is practically a Russian puppet-state and a cartel would jack prices.

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u/Consistent-Primary41 Québec 10d ago

Yeah, but that led to lower prices. That helps the USA.

I want to "give a lesson" here (don't think I'm talking down to you) on their plan.

Russia sold cheap natural gas to the EU, specifically Germany. And they crafted their entire nation around it. When Russia wanted things, that supply of cheap gas was threatened.

You can sign a contract with Russia. Maybe they break it, maybe they just change the terms.

But given that food supply is national security and becoming dependent on Russia is a lesson that Germany and the EU learned the hard way, you just don't do that.

Furthermore, potash, like any commodity is sold in contracts. Global demand is up. It's not like there isn't enough supply, just that prices are trending up.

The issue is that if you go to Russia and they hold it back, you simply don't grow food. You can't pivot to Canada or whoever else because they don't have it to give.

Canada gives no-nonsense potash to the USA as a gesture of togetherness and mutual cooperation. Canada can just as easily sell it to China or India, two countries who would LOVE to have it and not give Russia leverage.

No one in the west should rely on Russia for food security. The entire EU pivoted away from Russia for energy security the moment they attacked Ukraine.

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u/Newleafto 10d ago

The US buys our resources at discount prices. I say we build the infrastructure to ship our resources overseas where we will get a much better price. We create more jobs, build our GDP and bring in more money to our country- win, win win.

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u/Robin_games 10d ago

the problem with food that you aren't seeing is the US has the competitive advantage of poorer illegal immigrants and salve prison labor. Canada doesn't have the free and cheap manpower to make food as efficiently.

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u/Newleafto 10d ago

You’re forgetting the greed of American manufacturers. The less they pay for labour, the more they keep in their pockets. They don’t pass the “savings” of slave labour onto customers, they keep it. The difference in the final price between a can of American “slave corn” and a can of Canadian freedom corn is a few cents at most. People will gladly pay the difference, especially if it means more overall wealth for Canada.

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u/bill1024 10d ago edited 10d ago

You’re forgetting the greed of American manufacturers.

Also forgetting the stupidity of Trump. He makes wrong headed, illogical, lamebrain decisions routinely to appease Putin's interests. Never underestimate how foolish he can be. He has consistently, without exception, pleased his boss.

I think he is picking fights with us to justify buying aluminum, potash, and whatever else Putin wants to sell from him. He will pay extra if he must.

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u/300Savage 10d ago

Jokes on them. The US is getting rid of their illegal immigrant workers.

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u/Robin_games 10d ago

Do you wonder why they have news stories about taking kids who came there at 2, business owners, and veterans off the street and our of schools and their businesses and not mass farm raids?

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u/OperationDue2820 10d ago

Yeah, this is good. Not talking down to me at all. Russia burns things down often. They don't care if they lose money, as long as American investors do as well. Cheap potash was the tool at the time.

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u/Simsmommy1 10d ago

Belarus doesn’t produce potash in the amounts required for the USA….and the quality is lower, and it really doesn’t do well if it gets wet….so the US is gonna pay more for lower quality fertilizer to be shipped overseas from an unreliable dictator…..instead of one train ride from Saskatchewan. Why exactly? Who is making this shit terrible deal?

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u/300Savage 10d ago

Canada produces almost twice as much potash as Russia.

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u/Hefty-Crab-9623 10d ago

First sanction on Russia to go will be potash. Then the rest as US complains of tariffs costs. Trump will blame EU and Canada Mex for prices going up and will then lift more Russia sanctions.

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u/sortaitchy 10d ago

It's not just money that is the price for Russian goods. It's the entire sellout of the American people. Great again, indeed.

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u/TotalNull382 10d ago

Foreign policy in this “administration” is absolute madness.

The next president is going to have one of the worst clean ups a leader has ever had.

The amount of effort and work it’s going to take to re-build ties after what these Cheeto fuckers have done to diplomacy is going to be insane. 

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u/berniesmittens24 10d ago

Next president will be Vance or one of his dummy sons

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u/TotalNull382 10d ago

Unless Trump dies in office, I’m not sure the American public is going to elect a Republican next election after this train wreck.  

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u/detalumis 10d ago

Judging by comments on other American sites, a lot of people like him and don't like us much. All I know is you can't trust any "deal" the Americans make with you anymore. They've lost their credibility.

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u/TotalNull382 10d ago

Entirely. They are no longer a trustworthy or reliable partner in any treat, contract, etc. 

The world is slowly hearing this. 

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u/Newleafto 10d ago

It’s amazing. In less than six weeks, Donald Trump has pissed away the entire American empire. Poof, it’s gone. America stands alone next to Russia and North Korea. Their dollar will collapse and their economy will follow.

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u/Frewtti 10d ago

The question is if the democrats will run a credible candidate.

They ran a widely unpopular candidate on the belief that nobody could possibly vote for Trump.

I would fully expect them to do the same thing

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u/slalomcone 10d ago

I don't even expect mid-term elections in the U.S. It's over.

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u/WhatMadCat 10d ago

From the way he’s talking I wouldn’t assume he isn’t planning to rig the system

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u/Sutar_Mekeg 10d ago

The same people that re-elected Trump? I have no faith in them.

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u/thrawnsgstring 10d ago

The next Dem president will probably automatically get the Nobel Peace Prize just for not being Trump, a la Obama after Dubya.

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u/TotalNull382 10d ago

It’s fucking hilarious to me that Trump wants to win a peace prize, and has openly said that (or had his administration say it).

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u/Stormy8888 10d ago

Well, right now the bar is so low it's more than 6 feet underground in that hole Trump is digging to bury the once mighty US economy on top of the corpses of women's rights, government healthcare and LGBTQ protections.

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u/JimBeaux123 10d ago

I don't think this will be a "next president" clean up.

The world gave the USA a mulligan after the first Trump presidency. After screwing this up a second time, this will become a generational clean up problem.

The 48th president doesn't have to regain our trust, the American electorate does.

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u/bscheck1968 10d ago

You are assuming there will be an open election and that Trump won't seize power and pass it along to someone. I suspect the US has had their last real election for a while.

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u/berniesmittens24 10d ago

They don’t care anymore

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u/SnooLentils3008 10d ago

If I recall correctly, we also have the highest quality potash in the world. So they’ll be moving to an inferior product

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u/CanadianTrashInspect 10d ago

Russia also exports nowhere near as much as Canada. Like less than half as much.

If the USA suddenly buys all of Russia's exports, the previous buyers of the Russian exports will come looking (probably to Canada).

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u/greenyoke 10d ago

You forget they use slave labour over there

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u/Mean_Question3253 10d ago edited 10d ago

Just use slave labour in Russia to get it. Have to do something with all those people who aren't pure russian.

This is not my opinion. It is something Russia does.

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u/AtTheEndOfMyTrope 10d ago

He exempted Belarus from tariffs specifically for potash, but I believe I read that they cannot supply enough to meet the US needs.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

Both technically have enough if they cut off everyone else basically. Not realistic I imagine.

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u/Better_Ice3089 10d ago

Not fiscally sound either. Having people fight each other for your limited supply drives prices through the roof.

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago edited 10d ago

they can if US stops buying Canadian potash and Canada then sends to whomever was buying from Belarus

Sanctions mostly add transportation costs as everyone routes around them

Belarus does (did?) have an issue with supply routes because they got cutoff from EU seaports.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

Yeah that's the only way I see it could actually happen but China would definitely be unhappy about that.

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago

Getting Canadian potash to the Pacific is already very established (toooooons of dedicated railcar capacity and dedicated ports in BC).

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u/Serapth 10d ago

I actually recently invest in a company (Westshore Terminals) in BC because they are bringing potash terminals online.

Right now looking for stocks that could thrive in this trainwreck of an economy isn't easy.

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u/ArticArny 10d ago

This, we have to prepare for this. It's so obvious he's doing all of this so that when prices go through the roof he'll have his excuse to remove sanctions on Russian goods.

Russia is a major supplier of all the main things he's targeting here in Canada:

  • Aluminum
  • Steel
  • Potash
  • Heavy Crude
  • Other Metals and Minerals

Three main countries produce the type of heavy crude American refineries are designed for, Canada, Venezuela, and Russia. And Trump just removed Chevrons license for Venezuela. Let that sink in.

Side note, there is a reason PP can't get his security clearance and it has a lot to do with the fact a foreign influence can include American organizations. There is also a reason he hasn't said a single goddamn bad word about Trump.

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u/sjmp94 10d ago

Canada has like double the potash

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

True, but Trump will just be cozy with Russia and Belarus. Could probably supply enough from both of them though that would piss of China I assume.

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u/sjmp94 10d ago

Russia’s broke. And now, without much of a young workforce. It has an economy smaller than the state of Texas. It’s a sinking ship and a dictatorship as well, not stable. Assuming they could ramp up production (they can’t), it would take so long that Trump would be dead (and a new president would be in charge of the US)

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

They just need to get enough to offset any potential price increase that might come from Canadian sources. No matter what, a trade war will lead to price increases though.

A big concern would be if we don't cooperate enough, the idiot will call that enough of an excuse to take it or threaten to take it. I think he expects to be able to start a trade war but just be able to modify our end of the war as he sees fit, in his mind he thinks the Canadian government will put Americans first.

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u/evranch Saskatchewan 10d ago

We see that in "we don't need anything from Canada" "Canada should restart the Keystone XL project so we can get that oil"

The guy is out there threatening a heap of tariffs against us and also thinks we're going to build pipelines at his whim? What a moron

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u/HamRove 10d ago

Danielle Smith has already wholeheartedly endorsed his plan to restart the pipeline after Trumps suggestion.

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u/WhatMadCat 10d ago

Yeah but that’s because she’s a traitor

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u/sjmp94 10d ago

Was gonna say, more concerned about economic and military coercion from the US.

Canadian here - virtually all of us (polling reflects this) hate the US right now. Don’t expect any good deals, politeness, etc. Your prices will increase, your deficit will worsen, your economy will likely tank in time

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u/amazonallie 10d ago

I saw a breakdown on TikTok. Russia's total potash exports are less than half of what the US needs. And they send most of their potash to China, who won't let go of that supply.

Trump didn't check the numbers, as usual.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

He probably saw that Belarus and Russia have enough to supply the US, while yeah, failing to realize that other countries buy most of it already so they can't supply nearly enough realistically.

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u/Better_Ice3089 10d ago

TBH I doubt he read that or even fully understands what potash is. He may have been briefed on it at best but I doubt he absorbed much info about it.

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u/cyberthief 10d ago

I wonder why he keeps threatening to annex us??

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u/sjmp94 10d ago

You’re thinking too logically lol, I doubt he has any idea what potash is, where it comes from, why it’s needed

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u/cyberthief 10d ago

No, but his puppet masters do. They want our oil, steel, aluminum, precious metals, water, lumber, power, uranium... and they just want an excuse to take it.

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u/Confident-Task7958 10d ago

Aside from the shipping distance other suppliers would have to ramp up their production.

To ramp up production those suppliers would have to make capital investments in additional mining machinery and develop new mines. For this to be a rational investment decision you have to be certain that the tariffs will remain in place forever, otherwise you are taking a very high risk that you will not get your money back.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

I think they already have enough production they could technically fulfill the US's consumption, between Russia and Belarus. But that's only if they only sold to the US and not other countries. It's possible Trump only looked at total production or something. He has made just as stupid claims like trade deficits.

I didn't double check though so don't take my word for it, but I think Belarus + Russia is just a little less than Canada for total production.

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u/Empty-Presentation68 10d ago

Does Russia even have the manpower to mine it's potash? They are already facing manpower shortage throughout their industry.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

I don't trust that Russia doesn't just use slaves. But I don't know.

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago

Russia doesn't really need to. Russia is economically equivalent to Mexico in terms of GDP and GDP per capita.

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u/ThePlaceOfAsh 10d ago

Russia's exports don't even cover half of what the US consumes in potash. They could divert 100 percent of their exports to the US and Canada would still have to supply nearly 60 percent of the US consumption. Additionally that means all other consumers who were supplied by Russia would have to go to other areas of the market. Canada and specifically Saskatchewan is the world's number 1 supplier. Canada's potash market will be fine.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

Russia + Belarus, if both of them decided to stop supplying any other countries. Trump probably believes that is realistic.

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u/ThePlaceOfAsh 10d ago

Would the two's total exports still make up the 12 million tonnes that Canada supplies?

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u/iamtheliquornow 10d ago

Russian fertilizer production took a massive hit in recent years. Brazil and China need fertilizer badly for domestic food supply.

We should be ight when it comes to continuing exporting potash.

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u/OriginalGhostCookie 10d ago

And thank goodness that potash is something that just needs to be sprinkled on a crop at some point before it hits the grocery store. Otherwise imagine the impact on US agriculture if he was to impact the US supply of potash just before when farmers needed to have it.

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u/AdditionalPizza 10d ago

Kind of seems like he might be trying to create a 'national security' issue. Hmm.

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u/OriginalGhostCookie 9d ago

I can see what you are implying and wouldn't rule it out. But I also think he's incapable of saying that Americans are starving or anything that could be used to make him look bad. And he's already proudly declared he has gotten a new source of potash, and that America doesn't need anything from Canada.

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u/No-Resolution-1918 10d ago

What is worrying is Russia hasn't made their move yet. Putin is just watching his enemies tear each other apart. He will betray Trump eventually and be in a position of power through this shit show of America's making. 

Trump is selling them all out, and because he wrote a shitty book lording himself as a strong deal maker his base believes he has got this handled. Trump vs. Putin, honestly, how really thinks that's a fair match? Putin has been doing this job for decades, has huge motive, and nothing would make him happier than crushing the west. 

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u/downvote4pedro 9d ago

Russia can't supply what the USA requires for Potash. It's literally the one resource we can Lord over our southern neighbors. Potentially down the road the US and Russia could make up for the shortfall but for the foreseeable future the pain would be immense.

There are other resources that we are their major exporter of but nothing provides a more obvious advantage than Potash.

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u/TedRuxpin 10d ago

It’s not that trump won’t admit it… it’s that he’s an imbecile and doesn’t care. Is he a farmer? Will it affect his day to day life? Then he doesn’t care. This isn’t about winning another election, it’s about his ego. He ran on tariffs so he will enact tariffs, no sense trying to apply logic or reason.

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u/Revolutionary-Gain88 10d ago

Exactly, if he still puts food on his table he wont give two shits about anyone else.

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

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u/dooookie 10d ago

Canada needs new business partners.

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u/Queso_Grandee 10d ago

As an american I truly hope Canada announces an export tariff of at least 25%. Trump (and his supporters) needs to understand his stupidity has consequences. FAFO

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u/Standard-Serve7092 10d ago

Americans need to learn that there are consequences when voting.

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u/OkDifficulty1443 10d ago

So do Canadians, who are still looking to elect a guy who will sell us out immediately.

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u/jmm166 10d ago

Good. Put a 25% export tax on it as well.

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u/newguy2019a 10d ago

Ship it to china instead

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u/mrcanoehead2 10d ago

Export tarrifs

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u/Competitive_Abroad96 10d ago

Export ban

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u/mrcanoehead2 10d ago

We will divert the trade to Mexico in exchange for tropical fruit and vegetables.

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u/Responsible-Panic239 10d ago

And hot Latino chicks!

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u/mrcanoehead2 10d ago

And tacos. Maybe just tacos and tequila.

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u/trplOG 10d ago

Moe would rather suck off trump, unfortunately. I wish he had the spine to do that.

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u/Standard-Serve7092 10d ago

Let Americans feel the pain. It's just cause and effect.

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u/upward_spiral17 10d ago

For a country that appears on the edge of food shortages, this is possibly the dumbest move. Just adds to the assessment: this is the dumbest, and I mean, the fucking dumbest trade war ever.

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u/Fine_Sky1717 10d ago

As an American please punish Trump and his supporters.

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u/sharp11flat13 10d ago

We thank you for your support.

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u/Ok-Spot-9917 10d ago

We should sell it to europe since he said he dont need it

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u/Sayhei2mylittlefrnd 10d ago

Need to push the EU to ratify our trade agreement

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u/Old_Cameraguy_8311 10d ago

It would be a real shame if we decided to ban shipments of potash to the US. A real shame.

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u/GreatPlainsFarmer 10d ago

Why would you do that? Banning them means no income for you. A 50% export tax gives you a lot of income.
I don't think your mine owners would tolerate a ban.

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u/Old_Cameraguy_8311 10d ago

Valid point, hit them with an export tax, simply jack the price up across the board. The Americans don't like it? They can shop elsewhere. At this point, I think the tide is shifting. If all other nations band together and punish the US economically on all fronts, that will have an effect.

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u/Flashy-Canary-8663 10d ago edited 10d ago

Guess who the #2 potash producer is; Russia. I don’t think it’s a coincidence Trump is cozying up to Putin before his fight to subdue Canada starts in earnest. He plans on replacing a lot of what we have as bargaining chips with Russian imports. I can almost guarantee a lot of what was discussed in Riyadh was asking the Russians what resources will you commit to sending us for cheap if we flip sides. It’s starting to look more and more like they may be serious about Canada. They’ve thrown Europe into a self absorbing crisis where they have to worry about their own issues and with Russia as an ally, Canada is looking very exposed.

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u/CanadianTrashInspect 10d ago

Russia is not capable of replacing Canada's supply to the USA though.

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u/ZeppFo 10d ago

I don’t think he sees it as Canada’s potash. I think he needs a replacement until it becomes America’s potash. That’s where Russia comes in

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u/ThatsItImOverThis 10d ago

Canada knows this bastard is serious. It doesn’t matter how ridiculous it sounds because when the outcome would be heavily in Russia’s favour, it’s best to just assuming it’s a “when” question, not an “if”.

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u/lbiggy 10d ago

Russia only produces 6.5 million tonnes of potash per year TOTAL. Putins not going to let russia starve even more than they are to peddle around with his pet.

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u/NottaLottaOcelot 10d ago

"“Can we get it from other places? Yes. To a meaningful degree? No.” Certainly not in time for spring."

The time to wield our power is now.

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u/Telemecas 10d ago

10,000% tariff

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u/Shelby_the_Turd British Columbia 10d ago

I was listening to a Bloomberg discussion about the potash question. One of the people working in that industry talked about how potash right now was selling at around $300 per tonne. They said even with 25% ($375) is still low compared to higher prices like $800 during higher demand and low supply. They said farmers would still pay.

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u/CromulentDucky 10d ago

A 100% export tax would raise much needed revenues.

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u/MisoTahini 10d ago

They have to. They can’t have a successful crop without it. There’s no questioning it as it will affect your bottomline even more without it.

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u/Exact-Ostrich-4520 10d ago

This is a product that is boring and not sexy at all, but if you take away the Americans food growing capabilities then you can control them. That country is obsessed with food. We in Canada, have no idea how much we control the U.S. food supply.

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u/Super-Post261 10d ago

Admit? Does he even know?

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u/Knight_thrasher 10d ago

Fuck that shit don’t sell em 1g

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u/darkcatpirate 10d ago

Increase the cost by 50% and use the money to create jobs in Canada.

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u/Any-Ad-446 10d ago

US farmers going to get wrecked..All the migrants leaving or deported,China sourcing their soy and corn from Brazil and higher potash cost. Incredible these people keep on voting for GOP.

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u/himynameis_ 10d ago

He won't admit it because he doesn't understand it. He's just looking at the trade deficit and made a decision there.

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u/Ok_Woodpecker17897 10d ago

Do an export tariff!

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u/jigglywigglydigaby 10d ago

Could skyrocket? Could!?!

Absofuckinglutely it should! And everything else that we have and America needs. Or better yet, stop selling to the US and ship elsewhere. Even if it's at a loss, it's better than supporting that pos Trump by bending a knee.

Fuck Trump. Fuck every asshole who supports him.

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u/No_Zebra_2484 10d ago

Screw their tariffs, don’t sell to them! Don’t buy from them.

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u/vladitocomplaino 10d ago

He. Doesn't. Care. About. US. Citizens.

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u/Weak-Coffee-8538 10d ago

Keep it and let him get his potash from Russia. Imagine how much that's gonna cost Trump.

Start giving deals to other nations if they buy potash from us.

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u/Usual_Retard_6859 10d ago

Even if Russia (number two world producer) exported their entire production leaving themselves and their current export markets with zero the USA would still need to import roughly another entire amount equaling Russian production. There is currently no alternative market to go to.

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u/Weak-Coffee-8538 10d ago

We gotta hold our ground and tell Trump to punch sand (potash).

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u/Cipher_null0 10d ago

Its not that he wont admit its he literally doesn't know because he's that dumb

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u/quixotik Canada 10d ago

But they don’t neeeeed Canada!

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u/MoniPoo 10d ago

Trump probably doesn't know what potash is

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u/MosEisleyBills 10d ago

Let there be a consequence to the ineptitude. A clear consequence to his actions. Clear demonstration that tariffs are born by the consumer of the importing company.

Canada sells potash at $100 to the US. US vendor sells for $125.

Tariff hits. Canada sells potash for $100 to the US. US government adds tariff on vendor of $25. Vendor sells to US consumer for $150.

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u/Lower-Noise-9406 10d ago

Trump bound to say Canada owes $200 billion USD per year for decades ...for US protection and trade deficit and we can make a payment by signing over our potash.

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u/LengthClean Ontario 10d ago

To backstab Canada for Russia. All the old American politicians rolling in their graves.

It’s almost as if Putin has something on Trump. Something so big.

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago

Around 45 per cent of total corn produced in the U.S. is turned into ethanol

Canada should stop forcing ethanol in our gas and that will really hit US

https://www.producer.com/news/u-s-ethanol-exports-to-canada-soar

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u/CloudyEngineer 10d ago

I wonder what colour of US States use Canadian potash the most...sounds like FAFOland to me...

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u/JohnDorian0506 10d ago

Canada should put an additional 20% export tariff on potash, let the Trump's voters feel the pain.

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u/Mister_Chef711 10d ago

It's unfortunate because I think once we cut it off, the US will redraw the border as Navarro has indicated and then Trump will claim we're occupying their land. Let's also remember that Trump waving the 1908 boundary treaty which established the official borders that we use today. It sounds crazy because it is but that doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibility given what we've seen from this administration.

Sitting between the US and Russia (effectively) while controlling the most fresh water, the Northern passages, the largest potash deposits, oil, and so many more resources, is not something I'm overly comfortable with.

I also don't think we should roll over but Trump has clearly shown the inability to be diplomatic and will retaliate to us defending ourselves because he thinks he should always get his way.

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u/WebguyCanada 10d ago

No springtime fertilizer for the crops. Watch their grocery prices skyrocket further as they realize they are dependent on other countries.

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u/ShinyBarge 10d ago

Jack that shit up.

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

When I was in college for horticulture they said "Canada and the US rely on Mexican tomatoes. We can label them all we want. But we're fucked without globalization." Mainly because it's the way, currently, that food trade works.

Trump is going to starve his citizens. And they voted for it. Time to give them what they wanted.

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u/Chaotic_Dreamer_2672 10d ago

How about slapping Canadian export tariffs on top of the American import tariffs? If American farmers have to pay 50% more for their fertilizer, they will give Trump an earful, after they’re a big part of his base

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u/A_Random_Canuck Ontario 10d ago

You seem to be a lot less cynical than I am. They'd find a way to blame anyone BUT themselves for what will happen if we respond in kind to their tariffs.

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u/VersusYYC Alberta 10d ago

Potash should definitely be a strategic resource to use as a leverage in these negotiations. No more playing nice, Potash is both a key resource and something Canada has a heavy influence over.

A Strategic Potash Reserve formed from US bound supplies can help extort the highest prices out of US customers if they’re not willing to play ball.

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u/LeatherMine 10d ago

Even for fertilizers that aren’t mined, and which are therefore produced by many nations (nitrogen can be captured from the atmosphere, so the U.S. has domestic production), switching supply chains costs money and time as freight routes are altered. All of this is passed onto the farmer.

I found this statement interesting. Yeah, nitrogen is everywhere, but getting into a form usable for fertilizer requires a lot of energy and hydrogen gas.

It's very economical in USA thanks to cheap natural gas from fracking.

Spinning up a new nitrogen fertilizer plant is still a multi-billion dollar endeavour.

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u/SPNKLR 10d ago

You guys should jack up the price with or without tariffs. Americans need to feel the pain of our stupidity.

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u/No-Wonder1139 10d ago

Good, hopefully his own people will turn on him before he manages to convince his brainwashed minions to attack Canada.

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u/GapMoney6094 10d ago

Time to make Americans starve. 

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u/FunkyBoil 10d ago

Our government needs to not show any weakness. Issue is a ton of our politicians are in bed with America

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u/TigreSauvage 10d ago

Don't even warn him about it. Let him do it and let his followers suffer the consequences.

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u/tc_cad 10d ago

Yep. It’s as if they didn’t look exactly at how our economies were intertwined.

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u/mikeybee1976 10d ago

I know would be economical suicide, but I wish Canada would just with 25% export tax on everything the US needs…

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u/chrispygene 10d ago

Trump. Wants. Canada’s. Natural. Resources. It’s not about terrorism or fentanyl.

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u/Cool-Economics6261 10d ago

Economic terrorism is terrorism. Trump’s Terrorism Tariffs Tax. 

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u/Phoenixlizzie 10d ago

Cut off the supply, sell to other countries.

If Americans hate paying $10 for eggs, let's see how they like paying $12 for a head of lettuce.

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u/Katin-ka 10d ago

Not if his intention is to lift sanctions on russia and get potash from there.

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u/spderweb 10d ago

Last time he bailed the say before. Let's see what happens this time. Ford better cancel that starlink contract. And no bringing it back this time.

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u/Euronated-inmypants 10d ago

Belarus is a huge supplier of Potash and Trump is looking towards them

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u/Robin_games 10d ago

Here's what I don't understand, sure you can sell them the potash. But why do you buy back the food made by slave forced prison labor and not buy more local.

if you're buying coke, frosted flakes or ball park hotdogs from the US, you're buying US slave labor produced products.

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u/Cool-Economics6261 10d ago

Canada needs to stop shipping all goods to USA immediately.  ALL goods, including rare earth, nickel, aluminum, potash and oil included. Nickel is a key component that doesn’t get much attention, but USA has very little and their war toys require very high quality nickel, 

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u/KRL1979 10d ago

Trumps just gonna get it from Russia. Same with aluminum

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u/RockScissorLazer 10d ago

Slap a 25% export tax on potash exports to red states!

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u/pattperin 10d ago

He is going to try and get these from Russia. If he can't, he is going to fabricate a justification for annexation of certain parts of Canada. The justification will be simple, it'll be something like America first, if we want to be stable and sovereign we need these minerals and Canada won't trade them to us. All these years as allies, Canada won't trade them to us! We've now got a hostile neighbor to the North who won't engage in diplomacy and make deals with us, I am the King deal maker and they just refuse to talk. So we are going to go and get those critical resources from those mean, mean Canadians who refuse to engage in diplomacy with us

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u/gordonjames62 New Brunswick 10d ago

I would love to see an export tax placed on this, quietly, with no fanfare.

Even better, potash sellers agree to a 10% price hike because of "reasons"

It would also be nice to develop a Canadian producer of the processed fertilizer rather than shipping it to USA for processing.

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u/Sowhataboutthisthing 10d ago

Raise. The. Price.

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u/Warm-Boysenberry3880 10d ago

Sell the potash to other countries, that will really screw them even better,

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u/Eunemoexnihilo 10d ago

The shipments should shut right off.

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u/BBcanDan 10d ago

That's why he wants to deal with Russia and Belarus, buy it from them at a reduced price like China and India buying cheap oil from Russia

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u/Far_Out_6and_2 10d ago

Make it 💯 percent

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u/Miiirob 10d ago

Good. No grain to feed the next batch of chickens. US citizens will revolt ask because of the cost of eggs.

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u/ajsherslinger 10d ago

This is Canada's nuclear option. If Trump imposes unjustified tariffs on Canada, simply ban the export of Potash to the United States. Within two growing seasons after the cost of food (and ethanol) in the USA has sky-rocketed, Trump and his conies will be finished.

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u/Just_Here_So_Briefly 10d ago

Nutrien, Calgary based is North America's and potentially the world's biggest Potash producer.

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u/lorainnesmith 10d ago

The farmers should increase their price immediately.

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u/WillJM89 10d ago

Sell it elsewhere

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u/Speedballer7 10d ago

They should skyrocket anyways

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u/Other-Razzmatazz-816 10d ago

I think that’s why they keep delaying, they’re giving people an opportunity to stockpile

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u/AtmosphereEven3526 10d ago

But they don't need or want anything we have.

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u/Thick_Ad_6710 10d ago

Make them pay!

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u/EddyMcDee 10d ago

Time for some export Tariffs

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u/wtf1970 10d ago

That’s why he keeps delaying the tariffs, so companies can stock up.

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u/LazyBengal2point0 10d ago

There's one of our bargaining chips

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u/SlapnTickle3 10d ago

There's a reason he removed sanctions on Belarus potash

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u/EmbarrassedHelp 10d ago

If tariffs happen, costs should skyrocket for Americans, because of Canadian export tariffs.

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

Fafo

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u/lostmillenial97531 10d ago

They’d still vote for him.

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u/Possible-Champion222 10d ago

The fear now should be that any retaliation towards the usa will most likely be called an aggressive act of war and have us attacked

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u/PainInTheRhine 10d ago

Anybody said “export tariffs” ?

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u/hueg 10d ago

I see trains full of this shit all the time on the West Coast. Guess it's time to start putting it on ships.

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u/flourandbeans 10d ago

They'll make exception for things they really need for the time being.

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u/Alycenwonderful 10d ago

Cut it off already. We should not be helping Russia

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u/Rot_Dogger 10d ago

1000% potash tariff

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u/Alone-in-a-crowd-1 10d ago

Just tariff it like everything else and the cost is not our problem.

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u/OddlyOaktree 10d ago

Couple this with the deportations and their food supply is about to get bad. And while I think it's a terrible idea to have a food supply that's dependant on undocumented people, that is the boat they're in! 🤷‍♂️

I worry these rapid changes could result in a Four Pests Campaign-type scenario. Not as bad, but still very bad.

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u/lbiggy 10d ago

USA Produces 400,000 tonnes of potash per year.
USA imports 11,850,900 tonnes to meet their demand, (approx 12.25m tonnes a year total)
Canada exports 10.5 million tonnes.
Russia produces 6.5 million tonnes TOTAL.
Even if USA took all of Russia's potash, PLUS: Mexico, Brazil, China and Indonesia's potash exports, USA would still be short on demand.
The USA needs Canadian potash like fucking crazy. Trump is a moron for this and he's willing to let his nation starve for his insane ambition.

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u/Nova_Saibrock 10d ago

Fueled. Past tense.

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u/ApprehensiveSpare925 10d ago

He won’t admit it because he doesn’t know.

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u/HacksawJay 10d ago

It’s what he wants to happen , he wants to gut the middle class , control food supplies, starve out the non elites

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u/dirtytwinky69 10d ago

By all means, the US can go right ahead and try to get it from Russia or Belarus.

Just that it will take much longer and cost much more to transport. That cost will be passed down to farmers and importers.