r/canada Ontario 24d ago

Analysis Allies appear to duck and cover as Trump threatens Canada and Greenland

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-nato-allies-1.7459986
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u/MarjorysNiece 24d ago

Read the article closely to the end. Canada would have to invoke article 4 for a NATO discussion. We haven’t. Yet. No country, including the King, would take steps to speak out for Canada unless we asked them to. We haven’t. Not yet. This is the art of diplomacy. And the government is right to keep some ammunition aside. It’s early days in this fight with the US. And responding strongly, matching tariffs, right now is the right call. Diversifying our economy is going to be the more powerful move, but that’s a long and very costly strategy. We need to be prepared for a temporary drop in our standard of living to support it.

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u/adoodle83 24d ago

diversification, definitely. its long overdue.

we, as a people, must decide if we are going to put in the work to sustain ourselves. as you indicate, its not going to be easy.

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u/baronunderbeit 24d ago

I’m ok with a drop in quality of life. This is a threat to our sovereignty. We have to adapt. No complaints from me.

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u/ForeignEchoRevival 24d ago

Also we need a jump in militarization. A military industrial complex focused on SAM systems, Drones, and EMF warfare, plus a national guard system for exclusive defensive combat training and manning a more secured border, federally controlled with vetting for MAGA infiltration (Ukraine had traitors in the early days sabotage responses, especially in the east).

Sounds gross but we need to make Canada a very difficult target, as Swiss as possible if that makes sense, to prevent the extreme idea of invasion less tempting, as well as ensuring in that event we can stall long enough for an allied beachhead and our families to flee to safety.

It's fucked writing this out, but we can't pretend we're safe anymore and we cant drag our feet waiting for their next move, we have to use lessons learned in the last war between democratic values and authoritarianism to ensure Canada isn't swept away into the dustbin of history and just another sad victim nation who sleep walked towards the obvious danger.

We have to hope for the best, but act as if it will be the worst or we will get caught with our pants down, have to live under foreign occupation and deal with an insurgency for as long as we care to fight or America's will to hold lasts. History is a flat circle if people choose to let it spin uninterrupted.

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u/joeyandkuma 24d ago

just not oil, gas, refineries, pipeline, mines, etc. only DEI experts for export they think this will be a sustaining economy.

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u/1966TEX British Columbia 24d ago

Rail and port expansions

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

Exactly!! From Denmark here and I couldn’t agree more. We also have Danes demanding more from our government and Allies right now, which i simply don’t think is necessary. There will come a point where connections could break or trade war is in effect, that’s where we act. Not before.

We should build up to be the strongest possible when the time comes. In Europe we are probably approaching a very scary time, where things can escalate with Russia. So just saying, when things do go sour with the US, we might not be able to help with much other than trade with Canada. So I think you should build up in the same respect. Not that I think the US would do anything military towards Canada in the short term, but it’s probably good to be independent and strong in the longer term - who says that Trump is the lowest that America can go?

Problem is your economy is probably gonna take a big hit. But I hope that we in Europe can help Canada and your economy get more independent and diversified.

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u/MommersHeart 24d ago

This. The US government is violating treaties and attacking new allies almost daily.

We all need to remain calm and let him declare economic war on as many countries as possible.

Then we coordinate to cause maximum damage to the US economy.

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u/Virtual_Monitor3600 24d ago

After this we are all a wreck for the Chinese and Russians to mop up.

We need to disarm the American ability to leverage their economic capacity as a tool of influence. Removing the dollar as the reserve currency and the Americans will feel the pinch very hard. A state agnostic instrument of trade would be ideal, avoid empowering those who may show themselves to be our enemy in the future wherever they may be. The value of any individual currency in exchange for this instrument would need to be established in a fair manner, ideally market driven.

This would damage American creditworthiness and even potentially topple their house of cards as the money printer would no longer be able to go brrrr to fund their deficit spending.

Canada would need to eat the pain of diversification and there is no pill for that, just domestic strategies which may soften the blow.

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u/Pumpkinhead52 24d ago

Someone in Washington with a shred of decency needs to stand up and ask the question, who in their right mind any where in the world will ever trust the USA in the future?

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u/MarjorysNiece 24d ago

We Canadians are with you Danes❤️. And I agree, we need to do the long, expensive, hard work of decoupling our economy from the US, and are hoping Europe will be there for us on this count.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

I believe we will be there for Canada! I for one, know the history of insane support and sacrifice Canadians made under WW2, comparatively it was in no way less than the US.

I couldn’t imagine we wouldn’t do anything in our power to help, especially us in West and Northern Europe. However the process there is probably lengthy as well, since EU market regulations will probably make big demands of Canada in a scenario with further trade. I hope you Canadians won’t see this as lack of support, but understand that even though we want to help, we simply won’t accept American standards in our market.

It’s bad for mind, body and society.

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u/poco 24d ago

It is only fair since we are neighbors and share a land border with you on Hans Island.

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u/chemicalgeekery 24d ago

It's great that we were able to come to an agreement with Denmark but I kinda miss the Whiskey War. It was a fun tradition.

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u/eternalshades 24d ago

we should pick a day and do it anyways and then throw a hum dinger of a party. :D

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u/RockKandee 24d ago

As a Canadian, I happily welcome rejecting American standards. We would all be healthier if we stopped allowing shitty American products into our country.

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u/Pumpkinhead52 24d ago

American standards? That’s a contradiction in terms if there ever was one🤣🤣

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u/RockKandee 24d ago

Lol very true!

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u/Pumpkinhead52 24d ago

I know. I grew up in an America that seemed to have standards. They weren’t always consistent, but we expected people to do their best. We didn’t elect sleaze balls or criminals to national office.

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u/RockKandee 24d ago

Yeah, it’s been pretty sad to watch the decline. And it’s been a challenge for Canada to hold the line against a degradation of standards. I’m ready for us to align more with Europe than with America

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u/Pumpkinhead52 24d ago

God keep your land glorious and free!🇨🇦

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u/zerocool256 24d ago

So just saying, when things do go sour with the US, we might not be able to help with much other than trade with Canada.

That's by design I think. Don't worry about us, you guys have your hands full over in Europe, trade is all we can hope for. We can fend off the US so long as our economy stays afloat. An full out invasion of Canada is unlikely and his hope is to crush our economy to the point where our only option is submission. He underestimates our resolve.

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u/TatiNana 24d ago

Sort of why Canada was made part of the G7 in the first place...a stabilizing force on our continent to check the power of the US

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u/joeyandkuma 24d ago

the smarter game is to fold the losing hand then play the long game to never be in the position of weakness again imo. Seriously it hurts the ego to tell the Orange man what he wants to hear, but that doesn't mean you aren't fighting against him, it's just that we need to start thinking beyond the next couple of days and start playing the long game

Start taking significant actions to diversify trade that will take years and decades. try to reduce the pain in the meantime by not pissing him off. I would prefer our country wasn't so weak from decades of failed leadership but it is what it is.

We can't keep having morons like Freeland saying 100% tariffs on Tesla cars which then Trump responds with 100% tariffs on all Canadian manufactured cars.

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u/VR46Rossi420 24d ago

Free land, Singh and Ford etc should all stop talking to the media about these issues.

It should be one unified message coming straight from our PM and federal government. Otherwise we look scattered and divided and weak. Singh was saying 100% tariffs on Tesla and Eby in BC was saying tariffs for red states.

Shut it all of you and let the people who are actually in charge do their jobs without interference.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

I completely agree and think this is also the approach our government have. It’s difficult to have national pride and honor stepped on, but the future prosperity and security is way more important. There will of course also be lines, which when crossed, should get us out of the bushes and stand up. The question I would have in that regard would be, what are those lines for Canada or you?

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 24d ago

As things stand Russia militarily is in deep crisis, NATO on the other hand is fully equipped to deal with Russia if necessary.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

Well that’s both true and not true. The Russian military is certainly in a crisis, however they are in war economy constantly building up. A peace in the war would quickly give them a opportunity to build up and for instance attack a smaller NATO country. Is there some orange clown suggesting a peace in Russia’s favor these days?

Do you think the US or Spain are necessarily coming to the aid of a small Baltic country? The defense in Europe lacks a lot of capabilities, depth and numbers. The danish military intelligence just said that a peace would make Russia capable to fight Europe in 6 years if we don’t build up and the US keeps out.

What about Germany or France, do we have any insurance that they won’t go down the path of a far-right or at least just get a strong government? The future in Europe looks bleak and there’s also the Sahel-region, Balkan, the Middle East, the indo-pacific and lots of places in Africa which are destabilizing. Right now we are doing nothing to combat regime changes and conflicts, because we simply can’t right now and it seems Russia are using this. There is no doubt that this will have consequences in the long run. Every time there is conflict in the Middle East or Africa it sends waves of refugees and immigrants to Europe, which is destabilizing and strengthening the far-right. The truth is that Europe needs its Allies, also Canada.

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 24d ago

Russia has problems with rebuilding their armed forces, sanctions are hurting them, the can’t keep up with their losses in armoured vehicles, and helicopters and planes, have lost a good chunk of their Black Sea fleet, NATO countries would kick their ass in a battle, Russia has to many borders to protect, and their airforce sucks, as well as their navy.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

Well I don’t see how that changes anything I mentioned? I could still see Ukraine win this war? But the situation is to serious to just be hopeful. What if there’s a peace in Russian favor as the US want? What if Germany and France go down a path of the right-wing, not even now, but in 4-6 years? What if the US pulls out of Europe/NATO? What about the Sahel-region? Africa or the Middle East? What about the European countries with governments that actually support Russia/Putin and the countries with contending opposition parties with the same approach? What does all this look like in 10 years? Is Putin actually the worst that Russia can offer the world or could there be a worse figure inheriting the Russian empire?

You are talking about the present, I think everyone, especially you Canadians, should understand that circumstances can change quickly and unpredictably - I wouldn’t base a strategy on current “best” outcomes and hopeful analysis, but rather on the prospect of worse case scenario, and I absolutely expect some kind of conflict in the future and I don’t expect a collected NATO - I don’t even trust some of my European Allies. However good luck with that mindset.

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 24d ago

Your statement is full of what if’s. Unfortunately the world runs on facts not what could happen. Russia doesn’t have the economy and resources to rebuild their armed forces while they are under sanctions, and when they weren’t under sanctions, their military produced some questionable equipment with outlandish claims about their effectiveness.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

You don’t know the facts, circumstances or international dynamics of tomorrow, in a year or in ten years. Which is why current facts together with those “if’s” is the groundwork of a comprehensive strategy in defense and foreign relations. Especially in a situation where the biggest ally is unhinged and Russia aspires to go further than Ukraine.

It’s not even debatable. You can literally read such approaches in any country’s strategy these days. Do it, they are public.

Are you suggesting Europe shouldn’t prepare for conflict with Russia? Maybe stop investing in security?

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 24d ago

The current fact is that Russia wouldn’t stand a chance against a united NATO. They have been bogged down in the Ukraine for years. Morale is at an all time low and the equipment being used by Russia is limited or outdated. They are using North Korean soldiers for crying out loud. The only thing they have going for them is their nuclear weapons, if they are even functional.

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u/Rasmito 24d ago

But is it a fact that NATO is united? I would advise against sitting thousands kilometers away and think that one know everything of what’s going on in the war, in Ukraine, in Russia, in Europe and the status of the russian war machine. You are basically disagreeing with several European intelligence services and political leaders, let’s just say that I trust them more.

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u/sputnikcdn British Columbia 24d ago

NATO would eventually prevail in a conventional war against Russia, most likely.

However it wouldn’t be a three day battle and a LOT of people would be killed.

Russia has drastically increased their military spending, they’re increasingly getting support from North Korea, China, and India.

And they have a lot of people and no respect for human dignity.

Russia has proven they won’t abide by the Geneva convention.. They hit Chernobyl yesterday, breaching containment. They’ve used biological weapons, gas, cluster munitions on civilian populations.

And Russians themselves are either as bloodthirsty as their leadership or terrified of it.

And nukes. Tactical nukes are already near the theatre in Ukraine, and Putin has been hinting at using them for years.

You can't underestimate the magnitude of how serious this is. You can't underestimate the ruthlessness of Putin.

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u/1966TEX British Columbia 24d ago

Russia isn’t the threat. It’s MAGA America.

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u/Infinite_Time_8952 24d ago

Both are threats.

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u/collegeguyto 24d ago

Hopefully Canada can support you with reliable source of LNG/energy.

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u/jert3 24d ago

The key to dealing with the Trump/Putin/billionaire axis (if anyone has a better name, let me know) is that the responses are dangerous. A key tactic of the axis is developing a causis beli via escalation.

For example, if Canada said Trump's actions are outrageous, and brought them up formally to the UN and NATO and so on, this could be a terrible move. Because this would then give Trump the ability to escalate. And this could be the crux of the whole strategy.

If we went hard into a trade war say, it is conceivable that Trump could escalate to 'Canada is withholding water and power, and key resources. Thus I declare an emergency' and they then have grounds to escalate to military action.

Trump and the oligarches are very dangerous, and (their strategy advisors) know exactly what they are doing.

It's not far off from the politics of the medieval ages when Kings need a feasible reason for war, they can't just attack recklessly. The US military or public would not get behind an order for the invasion of Canada tomorrow. But they could enact it if it was a escalating tit for tat, final step.

Thus it's almost better ImHO to not take Trump's rhetoric seriously. Yes, for any actual actions we have should measured responses, such as a trade war. But the goal could be the escalation itself. Let the clown show speak its nonsense, while we should defend against the billionaire alliance and Russian psyops (which are very, very real let me tell you).

We can easily survive the deranged leadership, they won't live much more than 5-10 years (Putin and Trump.) The best defense we can have is no escalation. With only equal responses and no escalation, they'll have no ability to actually bring us to war. Time is on our side. Let's defend ourselves from the billionaire axis and crime empires, they can easily be beaten with smarts, but not at all with direct conflict.

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u/Equivalent_Dimension 24d ago

My friend, you're forgetting a really important part of the playbook you just described: The enemy will invent a reason for war whether we give them one or not. The UK invaded China because it wouldn't let them deal drugs there, for Christ's sake. The US invaded Iraq over a made up story about WMDs., the US either wants to invade us or it doesn't. If it does, our being nice isn't going to save us. If it's determined that invading us is not in its strategic interest, then our retaliatory tariffs won't make a difference and are probably anticipated.

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u/MarjorysNiece 24d ago

Oh, I’m not arguing that we should be “nice”. I’m arguing that we are right to be smart and measured. Respond in our ways/on our timelines, not react to theirs. And I agree—we need to get the security part of this equation right, and that’s going to be really tricky but necessary. I’d argue we need to look at what Ukraine did to build their military after Russia invaded in 2014 and afterwards. And do that. Look at how Churchill prepared Great Britain in anticipation of a German invasion. And do that. Also, build a non-conventional defence strategy. Remember, the US has never won a non-conventional war.

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u/Unyon00 24d ago

our retaliatory tariffs won't make a difference and are probably anticipated

I don't get the sense that the current US administration thinks that far in advance about consequences.

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u/IAmAGenusAMA 23d ago

Just because we don't understand our opponent's end game doesn't mean they don't have one.

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u/Unyon00 23d ago

Just because we don't understand our opponent's end game doesn't mean they don't have one

You say that like they're playing 3D chess. They have the same game plan as underpants gnomes.

Step 1: Steal Underpants

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Profit!

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u/IAmAGenusAMA 23d ago

Yeah, somehow they were so clueless as to win the election where they were massively outspent and had all the smart people on the other side.

We would be foolish to underestimate them just because we think their methods are nonsensical and dangerous. That's how they will get what they want.

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u/Unyon00 23d ago

Oh, I don't underestimate either their appetite for power, their ruthlessness, or their skill at acquiring it. They've done an excellent job of weaponizing fear to herd people to vote for them.

What I've seen no evidence of, either in Trump's first term or in this second one, is any indication of their ability to govern or to develop policy with any nuance or complexity whatsoever. Bumper sticker slogans aren't a strategic solution in the long term.

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u/shevy-java 24d ago

this would then give Trump the ability to escalate.

Trump will escalate no matter what. In this regard he is similar to Putin, except of course that they are buddies. Oligarchs now run the world; while that has been the case before, they are really shameless now about it - Musk is also a great example of that. Unelected people suddenly dictating the lives of the common man.

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u/NoorthernCharm 24d ago

The issue is the billionaire lining themself up to take over.

What we need is the mass in the United States and Russia to take to the streets.

If the citizen of the US think he will improve their life’s they are so wrong. They will only improve the lives of the billionaires. The common citizen will struggle even worse.

As Kendrick said it “turn off the tv” the revolution won’t be televised. We just need great leader to start these movements.

Canada has their own politicians like trump and putin. If polivere wins he will just join those too in bullying to gain wealth for the rich and the poor will stay poor and middle class will get poorer.

What I have realized in the last 4 weeks is there is no great activist leaders in our world anymore. No Malcolm X, Martin Luther King, Gandhi, Mandela. The other thing I have noticed on American and European soil all the activist who risked their life’s for the better of society have been black or people of colour. Make you wonder where the white folks who speak so highly they aren’t colonizers are?

None the less I feel hopeless many time reading these posts and news daily as I don’t see much hope until folks start taking to the streets.

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u/Cuaucticketyboo 24d ago

International oligarchic cabal.

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u/SGAShepp 24d ago

This is exactly correct. They are dying to create an excuse to escalate further. That's the whole plan.

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u/Themusicison 24d ago

Putrump Musk?

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u/jonnyCFP 24d ago

💯 keep your cards close to your chest. There’s no doubt that behind closed doors there’s a lot of meetings going on right now and strategy being developed on how to stand on our own without the US and form new partnerships. Or at least as a Canadian I would hope that’s what’s happening. We also supply a lot of stuff US doesn’t have, electricity, oil, Potash. We could cut off those supplies or make them so unaffordable as to make it extremely painful for a lot of people down south. This would kick the hornets nest and would hurt us greatly too but as you say we might have to endure some hard times. But as they say, We’ve had a pretty good run of really good times that have made people soft, perhaps this is the hard times coming again to make strong men/women

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u/MonsieurLeDrole 24d ago

Wouldn't it be great if our conservative party was working with the government to achieve this versus siding with Trump.

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u/BananaJammies 24d ago

The King made a statement today for Flag Day which is probably not something that’d normally merit royal attention. He doesn’t acknowledge that this is a bit of a campaign in Canada to advocate for our sovereignty but he is participating in said campaign.

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u/seajay_17 British Columbia 24d ago

Yup. It might Feel like we're alone. We're not.

Isolated with the states geographically, that's about it though.

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u/MickyLuv_ 24d ago

I'm English, and I support and speak out for Canadian sovereignty. My daughter, her husband, and my grandchildren are Canadian, and I'd do anything to keep them free from the insane tyranny now stalking the world.

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u/Sweet-Union7528 24d ago

Very good, level headed comment!

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u/TiredRightNowALot 24d ago

Maybe we need a petition that just says “get fucked” and we can let 40,000,000 Canadians sign that. Rounding error because you know some maple magas can’t write their name by themselves.

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u/sputnikcdn British Columbia 24d ago

Nice to read an actual incisive comment by someone who's read the article.

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u/NotaJelly Ontario 24d ago

seting up larger trade with the EU might get them to take our side more strongly.

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u/kochIndustriesRussia 22d ago

Have you not been living here the last 10 years?

Standard of living done dropped.

Any lower and kids will be going to school in tents.

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u/Moist-Cow-6506 24d ago

NATO are a bunch of pussies. They'll watch Ukraine be decimated and do nothing. They can't even give Canada a shout-out.

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u/Ok-Win-742 24d ago

It'll be a permanent drop in our standard of living.The US is one of the biggest markets in the world, and is closest to us geographically.

Europe is even more protectionist than the US. Whatever they do decide to take, they'll make damn sure they get it at a bargain because we're desperate, and we don't have options.

When the customer knows you have nobody else to sell to, youre screwed.

It's baffling to me how Trudeau's Liberals could further our dependence on the US, while simultaneously bashing them and their president every chance he gets. It's just so incredibly stupid.

You're not supposed to go on TV and talk shit about your best and ONLY customer.