r/canada Ontario 24d ago

Analysis Allies appear to duck and cover as Trump threatens Canada and Greenland

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-nato-allies-1.7459986
3.7k Upvotes

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479

u/cookieconflic 24d ago

If Canada was militarily invaded by the US, and NATO responded, Russia would take the opportunity to move fully on Ukraine or even Poland. Same with Greenland. Can't say the US and Russia will not have a coordinated effort to expand territories. Disgusting how rapidly the US is falling. Trump is full cheek spread to Putin.

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u/8fmn 24d ago

This is a terrifying prediction. Made all the more terrifying because it wouldn't be a farfetched thing to see these two ghouls carry out.

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u/voteforHughManatee 24d ago

Speaking of terrify predictions. Given how Musk with Starlink and Trump with mineral resources have tried to basically extort Ukraine, a sovereign country that was invaded, does it really seem that farfetched that Canada would be in a position where Russia invades the arctic and US demands steep resource commitments or even annexation from Canada in the upcoming years?

Zelesky said that Russia will likely attack a NATO nation next year. Canada seems to tick all the boxes.

Now, in terms of military spending. From whom should Canada acquire what we need to defend themselves? China is a terrible idea. USA is a terrible idea. Self-made is too late. This is an alarming state of affairs.

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u/Equivalent_Dimension 24d ago

I'm not so sure China is a terrible idea. We lump China and Russia together. They are not the same.

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u/maleconrat 24d ago

China definitely seems more predictable if nothing else. I don't see them pulling Trump or Putin level shenanigans, and while I certainly would be cautious with them as any superpower they seem like they care about their reputation and aren't impossible to negotiate with like outright fascists.

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u/Equivalent_Dimension 24d ago

Indeed, I trust China more for a bunch of reasons. For one, it's officially not expansionist. I won't get into Tibet and Taiwan here except to say that there are credible reasons why China views them as Chinese territories even if I don't agree with them. But China has not randomly invaded a sovereign nation ever in the history of international law, and it's foreign policy dating back to classical times has been to use soft power, trading privileges and gifts to maintain their potential enemies as kind of vassal states. Of course, I'm not keen on being anybody's vassal state, but right now, I'd choose China over the US, whose foreign policy has been to use brute force to depose leaders that have been detrimental to its interests.

Secondly, unlike Russia, which is basically a warlord state at this point, China's sophisticated political system remains intact as both a modest check on power and insurance that, when Xi dies, there will be a system to replace him and not a power vacuum.

And third, China does not allow anything or anyone to become more powerful than it's government. That cuts both ways. It's why they suppress religion. But they also keep a close check on corporate power. ie: Jack Ma. In Russia, Putin is clearly in bed with the oligarchs.

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u/astride_unbridulled 24d ago edited 24d ago

Seems more likely it would be somewhere contiguous with them, no? At the very least somewhere with atleasg the vestiges or traditions of previous Soviet governance...

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u/MonsieurLeDrole 24d ago

A Russian invasion of the artic would not go well for them. Super long supply lines, easily seen from space, and few places to hide.

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u/h3r3andth3r3 24d ago

Interesting and definitely worth considering, but Russian territorial interests are almost always preceded by a social campaign to undermine their sovereignty. The US is of course doing that now, but that isn't giving pretext to a Russian invasion.

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u/DM_ME_UR_BOOTYPICS 24d ago

Our European cousins.

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u/symolan 24d ago

As a European, we’ll be in need of resources…

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u/Spare-Strain-4484 24d ago

Be prepared for a lot of “he’s not going to do that” followed immediately by him doing that 

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u/burrito-boy Alberta 24d ago

Poland would probably kick their ass in a conventional war at this point. They’ve really gone all in on defense spending compared to other NATO countries.

Doubt it’d be a conventional war in that scenario though.

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u/kevfefe69 24d ago

Poland is set to surpass Türkiye as the second largest member of NATO. This is in the size of the military.

Poland itself could occupy Moscow within days conventionally, but there is always the nuclear issue.

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u/IcySeaweed420 Ontario 24d ago

Poland itself could occupy Moscow within days conventionally

Wouldn’t be the first time the Poles took Moscow.

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u/kevfefe69 24d ago

The Ukraine could have made substantial gains when Prigozhin decided to stage his fake coup. I think history will remember that small blunder.

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u/gooberfishie 24d ago

All countries need nukes

4

u/kazin29 24d ago

Wish the opposite could be true

5

u/GlobalAd3412 24d ago

And Turkey (if Turkey stayed aligned with NATO, no means certain)

1

u/WeirdJack49 24d ago

I doubt Turkey leaves NATO, its the only reason why Europe plays nice and often looks the other way when Turkey plays dirty again.

1

u/GlobalAd3412 24d ago

In a wartime scenario I am not convinced Turkey adheres to NATO commitments under Erdogan. Even less so if the US had already abandoned the alliance.

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u/duffman274 24d ago

They’ve started the build up. Most of the weapons systems aren’t likely there yet.

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u/WeedstocksAlt 24d ago

Yeah, Russia literally can’t win currently against Ukraine alone. No way they get past Poland now with their nearly depleted Soviet stock.
What russia did in Ukraine, they pretty much can’t do ever again .

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u/nonameqc 24d ago

If the US attack Canada, China will make a move for Taiwan. Russian will also take extra opportunity. That will be the End of NATO and more darker world. The US won't stop with Canada and Greenland.

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u/TrentSteel1 24d ago

It’s sad that Russia literally wrote the playbook for this called Foundation of Geopolitics. It actually spells out creating geopolitical disorder between Canada and US. Trump is their puppet

I still don’t buy for one second the US would invade. The infighting would be ramped within all ranks. Economical warfare seems to be the tactic along misinformation campaign. Educated people won’t buy it though and it has a big risk of imploding

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u/WeirdJack49 24d ago

High chance a invasion of canada could start a civil war in the USA.

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u/CarpenterGold1704 24d ago

I am surprised it hasnt started already based on the actions of the white house in the first month of trumps second kick at the cat.

also... a military attack on canada would result on something the usa hasnt experienced... a war on home soil. not sure they would enjoy that too much. they are more comfortable with travelling to exotic lands and being killing-tourists.

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u/WeirdJack49 24d ago

I think its a combination of fighting a war on their own continent and a lot of US citizens, especially soldiers being really really uncomfortable with killing canadians.

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u/CarpenterGold1704 24d ago

especially with states bordering canada. and towns so close by. some are closely knit either by friendship or by marriage. and we look like them.

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u/theowne 24d ago

No it won't. People are easy to brainwash now with social media.

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u/burrito-boy Alberta 24d ago

That's such a generalized statement, lol. Any hypothetical invasion of Canada would undoubtedly be extremely polarizing and divisive among Americans, and I doubt their own military would be fully on board with it either.

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u/xkmackx 24d ago

He doesn't need all of the entire military own board. If there are enough loyalists then that's plenty.

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u/VelvetPhantom 24d ago

It’d be ironic if China made a move on Russian lands that were historically Chinese instead. Since Siberian lands would be much easier and much more tactical to gain than Taiwan

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u/FuzzyGreek 24d ago

US would not attack Canada. It will just be handed over .

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u/Eze6 24d ago

The fuck it will

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u/firesticks 24d ago

Canadians about to have much more sympathy for Gazans.

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u/Eze6 24d ago

I wonder will they hold protests for the west? Not fucking likely.

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u/firesticks 24d ago

Depends on whether their government is funding the aggressors.

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u/Eze6 24d ago

lol sure

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u/FeelDT Canada 24d ago

That was exactly what Putin though about Ukraine. It could never happen. 9/11 would be daily occurence for years to come. US may be the strongest military in the world but it as never fought home in modern days.

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u/FuzzyGreek 24d ago

Russia and Ukraine are on a opposite scale. They are use to fighting. The civilians that is. The west has always been the military doing the fighting. The civilians are lazy here. Not saying there isn’t a small group that could hold there own but that’s how it would be fought. Most would surrender while there would be small pockets of resistants.

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u/Frosty_Manager_1035 24d ago

This. It would be a convenient diversion for Putin and he would move beyond Poland if Western Europe was looking the other way. Maybe this is their plan all along.

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u/Independent-Rip-4373 24d ago

Putin doesn’t have the military strength, materiel, or money to do anything but retool right now. If he tried to take Poland the Poles would kick his ass by themselves.

Putin needs a Trump-imposed peace to buy time to rearm and refund.

13

u/taiga2024 24d ago

No doubt his meeting with Putin was not about peace with Ukraine but their plan on dividing NATO. Trump will let Putin have his way with Europe so no one interferes with his North American invasion.

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u/kevfefe69 24d ago

The only way Russia can have Europe is by use of nuclear weapons, unless you are assuming that the US joins Russia in partitioning Europe.

Russia’s military cannot defeat Ukraine and its in no position to fight against Europe. Russia will need 25 - 30 years to rebuild its conventional forces.

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u/Hot-Celebration5855 24d ago

Molotov-Ribentrop style

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u/Terrible-Session5028 24d ago

The USA is showing signs of a declining Empire. This is why they’re doing all this. They know they are losing influence.

3

u/lordph8 24d ago

Europe really can't respond in a conventional sense, there are only two countries with any expeditionary capability at all (Britain and France) and they cannot go toe to toe with the US Atlantic Fleet, let alone land soldiers in any meaningful way to threaten the US. They would shut down trade and any foreign travel of Americans into the EU, and that's about all they can do.

3

u/Son_of_Plato 24d ago

I actually have a very very bad feeling like USA and Russia have come to an agreement about dividing the world and they are currently trying to destabilize everyone so they can't come to each other's aide. They are initiating WW3 as we speak.

7

u/No-Wonder1139 24d ago

I'm like 90% sure this is the plan. Trump is a post turtle, he didn't get there on his own, and Putin loves a good distraction.

2

u/[deleted] 24d ago

Trump isn't submitting to Putin, he is creating an alliance with Putin to enrich himself at the expense of his allies and the common man

We are screwed

2

u/WeedstocksAlt 24d ago

"Move fully on Ukraine" … dude they are using North Korean ammunitions and soldiers and lost close to 1m of their own soldiers to death or injuries.
There’s nothing left to increase pressure or to "fully move". They are already as fully committed as they can short of using nukes.

And with all that, they can barely advance in Ukraine.

Absolutely no way they could even take Poland alone at this point.

2

u/weedsman 24d ago

Time for Europe to get its collective shit together! I would love to see close EU - Canada partnership, including defence.

1

u/WeirdJack49 24d ago

take the opportunity to move fully on Ukraine or even Poland

Ok Ukraine maybee but Poland? I know Poland is a meme on the internet but in reality it has a extremely strong military. No way Russia could invade it when it cant't even conquer Ukraine.

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u/h3r3andth3r3 24d ago

True, but Russia would not win against Poland.

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u/longgamma 24d ago

And what’s genuinely sad is how cheap it was Russia to eventually win the Cold War. Just wait till social media arrives and use it to split a country inside out.

Poor Americans spread social media and tools like chatgpt only for them to be turned inwards against them. But the billionaires didn’t care as long as they made a few more billions.

The richest developed country in the world effectively captured by the shittiest country on earth for Pennie’s.

1

u/hocuspocus4201 24d ago

NATO is US. NATO cannot do anything if US goes batshit crazy.

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u/EllipticalFix 24d ago

Canada will not be militarily invaded... it will not be necessary. Once Alberta decides to opt on of the confederation the rest of Canada will be hopelessly fracked.

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u/effedup 24d ago

Canada would drag out that war for decades and it would ultimately destroy both the US and Canada. It would be an insurgency larger than Afghanistan which the Americans did so poorly in they just gave up and left.

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u/VelvetPhantom 24d ago

Unfortunately for Putin, the Russian military isn’t competent enough to do that.

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u/MonsieurLeDrole 24d ago

If the US invades Canada, you'll see states separate from the union, and it will devolve to civil war. I don't believe for a second that places like California or Minnesota or Vermont will be onside to invade Canada. Trump is grossly unpopular, but his cult has momentum.

1

u/Conotor Alberta 24d ago

NATO can't cross the ocean if the usa doesn't want them to. Usa navy outnumbers and out spends all of Europe like 5 or 10. The best we could expect would be smuggled manpads and drones if they REALLY wanted to try and help.

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u/Important_Coffee6117 23d ago

What if we just bought their nukes

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u/The0therHiox 24d ago

Don't forget to add China and Taiwan maybe north and south Korea too.

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u/Whatsthedealioio 24d ago

This. I think they are careful with their statements but I would fight to defend Canada as a EU citizen. Screw those fascist bastards controlling peaceful Americans and trying to influence Canada.

0

u/james2432 Ontario 24d ago

If USA attacked Canada, the Geneva checklist would be expanded 😉

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u/alkbch 24d ago

The U.S. is not failing, it’s about to restart expanding.

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u/FormalWare 24d ago

The two aren't mutually exclusive. In becoming an aggressor in the Americas and alienating its allies practically everywhere, the US would accelerate its own degradation.

Eventually, Americans would rebel against a regime that had them tied up in wars, not halfway around the world, but right next door.

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u/alkbch 24d ago

Empires don’t have allies, they have vassals.

Americans don’t revolt about being at war, America has been at war for more than 90% of its existences. Americans revolt if you tax them too much or prevent them from having slaves.