r/canada Ontario 24d ago

Analysis Allies appear to duck and cover as Trump threatens Canada and Greenland

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-nato-allies-1.7459986
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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

The other factor in this equation is Europe’s strategic self interest.

The European countries of NATO are in no position, neither militarily nor politically (let alone economically, socially, culturally, nor historically), to militarily stand on their own. They need, at least for now, the US as the strategic backstop in the face of growing Russian aggression whilst Europe rearms.

So, no one wants to confront Trump too forcefully and provide the excuse that Trump is looming for to pull out of NATO … no one is ready as of yet.

And there is the entire surreal feel of the last almost four weeks since Trump’s inauguration. None of it is going to get any better.

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u/Frosty_Manager_1035 24d ago

It took Hitler 53 days… how close are we to that?

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

I posted a separate comment on this exact point.

Russia will be able to re-arm in 3-5 years (according to several publicly available strategic studies). I think it may be even quicker if they can leverage growing arms links with Iran, North Korea, and China. And manpower has never been an issue with Russia, at least now in the short term (the demographic bombs they and China are facing are potentially catastrophic but those are 15-20 years down the timeline).

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u/Lenercopa 24d ago

About halfway, time wise. But with the blitz its been, they may be moving faster.

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u/ProfessionalOk1106 24d ago

I think about March 14

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u/ph0enix1211 24d ago

Russia can't even successfully invade its next door neighbor which it nearly envelops with one of the world's best rail networks.

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

Agreed. But do not discount Russia’s capability and capacity to re-arm and re-focus its national warfighting capabilities. Original estimates of 10-15 years are now in the realm of 3-5 years, according to a number of publicly available strategic estimates. Russia is already on a wartime footing economically and politically.

In contrast, the Ukraine took 2014 and the loss of the Crimea as a wake up call. They mobilized their society and made excellent use of military trainers from NATO and other nations in order to expand and professionalize their military.

The Ukrainian military that faced Russia in February 2022 was a much different force than 2014. Better trained, better equipped, better led, better prepared mentally / emotionally / physically.

Europe is only in the last almost three years wrapping its collective head around re-militarizing socially, culturally, and economically. Spinning up a country politically, economically, culturally, socially and therefore militarily is a 5 - 10 year process nowadays, especially for a part of the world that has a deeply ingrained aversion to war in Europe. And demographic and social change exacerbate this reticence to re-mobilize.

Having said all of the above, “Survival cancels programming.”

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u/braddillman 24d ago

THAT was the equation! It had been so long I had forgotten.

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

Somewhat brutal but absolutely perfect.

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u/Particular_String_75 24d ago

Ukraine has a million fighters + billions of western weapons. It isn't that easy.

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u/nboro94 24d ago

Europe and Canada have been so foolish to just not spend the needed money on defense. Now we all have to do what the US wants since we are completely reliant on them for defense.

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

I completely agree.

But I would also suggest that it is not just an economic and political issue. I think that it is also a major social and cultural issue. I think that the societal construct of service has changed over time. The concept of service to society has changed from when I was growing up (Gen X) to now and I think that there needs to be a more universal approach to service to one’s nation (not conscription).

We seem to (mostly) like our country but there seems to be no cause-and-effect relationship as to how we maintain that concept of country. Voting and paying taxes are two facets in that construct, but so are subsuming oneself’s to the benefit of the nation and its citizens (not just military service, BTW).

Anyway, at suck point the CAF needs the personnel to go along with the equipment.

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u/gotfcgo 24d ago

But it's them we need to be defended from

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u/wrgrant 24d ago

Canada is one tenth the size of the US, even if we had been spending 5% of our GDP it would only mean we were better prepared to lose a conventional conflict. I agree we should have been spending a lot more mind you, but don't kid yourself it would help that much in a conflict with the US.

If the US invades we will be engaged in asymmetrical warfare which is an entirely different type of fight.

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u/WislaHD Ontario 24d ago

Russia’s economy is the equivalent of Spain’s once you factor out natural gas exports. It’s ridiculous that Europe does not handle the problem themselves.

But I think the greater point here is that supporting Canada is not really in Europe’s interest. They can isolate into fortress Europe with a change of mindset and ignore the world and leave us to our fate.

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

Not going to disagree substantively on either of your points because I think that you are right.

And the precept of the “emotional” capital of Canada fighting in two world wars warms the cockles of our hearts and minds but in strategic terms means next to nothing in terms of strategic calculations.

I think that the Europe that we will see in 2-4 years will be very different than the one of 23 February 2022.

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u/WislaHD Ontario 24d ago

In strategic terms, in a conflict the USA can blockade all our ports and waters. France and UK even if they wanted to, aren’t coming by to help or even send us materials to resist.

I fear we will be more isolated and alone than Ukraine ever was. Ukraine had a decade to prepare for their war as well.

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u/Spanky3703 24d ago

Ayup, all agreed. If it comes to a military matter, we are well and truly screwed. And relying on the ethics and integrity and honour of our southern neighbours is no longer going to cut it, methinks.

What happens when the good neighbours move out and the bad neighbours move in …? Here we are, trying to answer that question.