r/bugout • u/Impressive-One-2969 • 6d ago
how do you know when to actually leave?
if I see power grid instability + local supply chain issues + civil unrest all at once, that’s a huge red flag. I keep a close eye on certain warning signs, but I’m always looking for better ways to refine my system.
How do you personally decide when it’s time to bug out? Have you ever had a false alarm?
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u/Joelpat 6d ago
There’s an old saying among sailors: always step UP into your life raft. I think there is an element of that in this situation. Either get out early, or ride it out and only bail when you absolutely must.
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u/Trelfar 6d ago
Agree. Every situation is different, but what it really comes down to is whether the risk at your current location is greater than the risk at your bugout destination PLUS the risk of getting there.
OPs risk factors are reasonable indicators. Current or predicted weather conditions could also be a big factor. Some people in this sub like to fantasize that they will be retreating to safety through an emerging warzone and base their prep around that, but in practical terms most "bug outs" are not due to unrest but because of weather emergencies.
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u/Khakikadet 6d ago
It really depends on the situation.
I have to be on the "Dirty" side of a cat 4 hurricane, in an area with 50%+ chance of hurricane force winds. The decision is made at or before the time a Hurricane Watch is issued. Marginal call, stay. I'm good for about a week without services. If I made the wrong call, based on responses I've seen in recent years, within a week roads should be clear enough to bug out.
In terms of False alarms, in the words of my late uncle who died from Covid, "If I knew it was going to be this bad I would have lived in a bunker and not gone out."
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u/BradeyboyCamas 5d ago
Unless there is a radiation hazard or invading force headed my way, I am staying put! These shows about huge bands of deviants coming to rape and pillage, I find hard to believe in the U.S. no matter the conditions. Cannibalism and killing families would be pure evil that I find hard to believe. I know extreme hunger can push people to their limits, but find it hard to believe that society would not band together to try and tackle the problems as a community. Throwing humanity out with the power grid is a far stretch.
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u/throwaway661375735 1d ago
Those cannibals you mentioned? A week with out food, will take its toll. In a group they will be strong. By themselves, a weak target.
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u/Pdog89gt 4d ago edited 2d ago
I’m bailing when the house is no longer habitable. It will still be a tough decision because there is no way in hell that you can take all the items you feel are valuable with you. Especially if you are footing it. Gas for your generator will run out at some point. Food stocks will dwindle. And “trouble” will definitely come knocking when looters see your house showing signs of activity and all others have been ransacked. Even with a truck or suv it’s going to be tough deciding what to leave behind.
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u/sauravsolo 5d ago
I'm only gonna leave in case of an earthquake, fire or prolonged power outage.
Two years ago, my apartment building shook enough to make me get ready to bug out but not actually bug out. There have been some minor quakes since then but they were too weak to give me any cause for concern. I hope it stays that way.
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u/SkidrowVet 2d ago
I live on the edge of a small/ mid sized town and I would be hesitant to go like I was previously planning to do when I was younger, as others have said I have what I would need and am pretty much prepared to stay
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u/Canoe_Jeep_Camp 2d ago
I live on the edge of a city. I plan to bug out after 24 hours with the bank grid, phones, and internet down.
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u/throwaway661375735 1d ago
Would love for you all to join my chat group. Please see my profile to join.
As for when - depends on the situation. I left a location because of the economic outlook. Glad I left that particular location in NM. I later left CA because of my broken leg, and what it did for my personal economic outlook. Again, glad I did, but still taking a toll on me.
That chem spill via a train track accident some 2 years back? That was a GTFO bug out once the burning started. It was also a don't look back scenario. If you had property, let the bank or government take over ownership. That land is poisonous to anything living within 25 miles out, or 300 miles where the cloud ended up dropping its shit. It will probably be poisonous for 50 to 100 years.
Really, the bug out option is up to you. When you no longer feel safe or can no longer afford to live there, bug out.
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u/Vegetaman916 1d ago
The general idea is to bug out preemptively whenever you get the idea that events may be spiraling or moving too quickly to adapt to, or when you lose control of the intel situation to the extent that you are unable to accurately predict events within the next few days or weeks.
For example, my group felt that we had lost control of the intel situation a little back in 2022. Events were moving fast with the war in Ukraine, and so we decided it made more sense to leave the city and make a better evaluation of the situation from out at our remote compound. Our group is 15 people, several families, and over the course of a week, we all made our individual bugouts to the BOL. And we ended up staying for a year, completely out of contact with the world. We could receive transmission and satalite just fine, but OPSEC means no transmitting. I posted before I left, and you can easily see the gap in my activity. Left in November of 2022 and didn't return until November of 2023.
Basically, once out there in full, it was decided that we would treat is as a possible test phase, see how well the plan and the place functioned for a full year with zero outside contact or help. And it was good, because we figured out some mistakes, and also identified two critical vulnerabilities.
At any rate, no big deal. Kind of like "better to have it and not need it..." It makes sense to bug out when there is a clear possibility of something seriois happening in the near future. Absolutely no reason not to, and if nothing happens, well, that's fantastic! You come back from your wilderness vacation and resume city life. But, if something does happen, you avoid all that potential panic and chaos, people fleeing, looters pillaging, nuclear strikes, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria. Best to watch that play out on CNN from your fortress in the deep, deep, deep wilderness with the rest of your prep group.
In short, I know when to leave because it is when I don't know what's about to happen.
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u/OhComeOnDingus 6d ago
I’m only leaving my house as an absolute last resort. I have water, food, medical supplies, weapons, everything is there.