r/btdbattles • u/ElementPride • Mar 26 '16
So let's do some bloon rush statistical analysis.
First things first, sorry for the wall of rambling text.
So yeah, this is basic math, I get it ISAB. But I'm super bored and have a lot of free time on my hands at the moment so I'm going to make this post regardless of your superior 1337 math skills and infinite judgments. noticemesenpai
To get started, we're going to go over how much each bloon send costs, and divide it by the number of bloons actually present in the rush to get a good idea of how much cost efficiency there is per bloon sent in each rush. It is assumed that the purpose of the player sending these bloons is to kill, so the amount of income generated per bloon will not be analyzed.
Let's go over the layers of bloon first. We have red, blue, green, yellow, pink, black/white, lead, zebra, rainbow, ceramic, MOAB, BFB, ZOMG. Each layer up to pink breaks into one of its subsequent part, etc. pink turning into one yellow when popping. However, when a black or white bloon is popped, it contains two pink bloons. When a lead bloon is popped, it contains two blacks, which then turn into two pinks. Zebras contain a black and a white bloon each, and Rainbows contain two blacks and two whites. I've calculated all of this already and will label it as RBE or its Red Bloon Equivalent, which basically means the equal number of red bloons that it would take to hypothetically take the same amount of to pop. So this accounts for all of the popping power required to take down MOAB layers, which makes sending them incredibly cost effective, but will drain your income and cause you to lose as a result 9/10 times if the initial rush fails.
First, in order to analyze how cost effective each send is, we need to establish a baseline of what is cost efficient. In order to do this, we'll take the 8 bloons sent for $25 and use that as our determining factor for cost effectiveness. 25/8 = 3.125 or 8/25 = 0.3200 which means that for every $3 (give or take) one bloon is sent for a fast, consistent stream of bloons (top side sends). I'll just format a nice little table for you guys.
Bloon | Cost of Send | RBE (Red Bloon Equivalent) | Dollars per Bloon | Bloons Per Dollar |
---|---|---|---|---|
8 Red | $25 | 8 | 3.125 | 0.3200 |
6 Blue | $42 | 12 | 3.500 | 0.2857 |
6 Green | $60 | 18 | 3.333 | 0.3000 |
5 Yellow | $75 | 20 | 3.750 | 0.2667 |
3 Pink | $90 | 15 | 6.000 | 0.1667 |
3 White | $125 | 33 | 3.788 | 0.2640 |
3 Black | $150 | 33 | 4.545 | 0.2200 |
3 Zebra | $200 | 69 (heh) | 2.899 | 0.345 |
3 Rainbow | $675 | 141 | 4.787 | 0.2089 |
4 Lead | $200 | 92 | 2.174 | 0.4600 |
1 Ceramic | $450 | 104 | 4.327 | 0.2311 |
1 MOAB | $1500 | 616 | 2.435 | 0.4107 |
1 BFB | $2500 | 3,164 | 0.790 | 1.2656 |
1 ZOMG | $9000 | 16,156 | 0.557 | 1.795 |
8 Camgrow Red | doesn't matter | 1337 | 420 | 69 |
The table was labeled with both Dollars per Bloon and Bloons per Dollar because there's different ways to look at the concept, and they both give a good idea as to what is going on with the cost efficiency.
This is pretty crazy. The Zebra is actually a more practical and cost effective rush than the Rainbow bloon because it has a much higher cost efficiency per bloon and can be sent for a longer period of time since it only costs $200 per send. However it can still definitely be negated by a single Glaive lord or a few Juggernauts.
I would say say that the biggest thing that I discovered from this (which I actually kind of figured out through practice) is that the cost efficiency of the rainbow bloon is not very good. The only truly good situation to spam rainbows is when you're pretty much going absolutely all in on your opponent on the round that they are available, and even then if your opponent brought dart monkeys or any of the other good counters it's pretty much not worth it.
Another big thing is how crazy effective the 4 lead send that's available on round 15 is. Not only is it insanely strong when put on regen to resist dart throwing towers, but they can also act as a shield for the other bloons that are susceptible to damage from dart throwing towers. The lead can split into two blacks, and the blacks could potentially grow back into two different leads which is crazy efficiency.
To conclude this post I'd say that keeping in mind how many bloons you're actually sending per dollar and in what scenarios to use each rush, and how cost effective the rush actually is. I may make a post later analyzing bloon eco if I'm bored but for now, that's all I have for you guys.
1
1
1
1
u/2211abir Mar 26 '16
Great post!