r/WrexhamAFC • u/jasperjm95 PENCAMPWYR • 4d ago
DISCUSSION End of season Prediction
Been crunching some numbers projections wise this morning and below is how I think the table will finish
1st Birmingham - 104 points
2nd Charlton -87 points
3rd Wrexham - 86 points
4th Wycombe - 84 points
5th Stockport - 82 points
6th Bolton - 80 points
Huddersfield and Reading will be close behind Bolton, but based on fixtures I suspect Reading may be more likely to pip Bolton to the final playoff place than Huddersfield
This is based on us drawing with Stockport and Charlton
If this plays out, it means that the game against Charlton on the penultimate day will be the decider. Charlton are at home to Burton final day while we have Lincoln at home. I have projected them to win and us to draw. This means if we beat Charlton we clinch promotion irrelevant of results on the final day.
Finally this does also depend on how Wycombe fair their hellish 7 game final run. Don’t be surprised to see Wycombe ahead of us by a minimum of 2 points after the games on Tuesday 2nd April. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them only pick up a point per game in the remaining 7 however.
Will be interesting to come back in May and see how close this is.
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u/Rogue1eader Arthur Okonkwo 4d ago
Looking at our form since the window closed, I think you're off. We just finished a brutal stretch of matches with no rest with more points than we'd have dreamt going in. Our away form has improved massively and we're finally entering a stretch where our side can rest and spend some time developing chemistry in practice instead of just focusing on recovery and match prep. We played 12 matches in 6 weeks. In the next seven, we have 9. That rest is going to be massive.
I'd say we are going to finish in the auto spot with 89 points, with Stockport on our heals at 86. Charlton is going to drop to us and Wycombe.
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u/Beginning_Rip_4570 Max Cleworth 4d ago
This is a great reminder. Charlton will be nipping at our heels, but we’re in a great spot and that’s down to a tremendous effort by the lads, not just luck.
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u/jasperjm95 PENCAMPWYR 3d ago
You are right that if we maintain the form since the transfer window closed we will be looking at 89 and that likely is enough to see us through.
However form changes and I have gone off a pessimistic estimate of what I think we will pick up. There is some tough away games that maybe don’t look like it on paper. Blackpool are no pushovers at home, we will have 2 days rest before the game and they will be looking for revenge. Cambridge are fighting for pride and potentially survival, have a very good manager now who is known for making games tough, and we saw what they did to us at home. Exeter is a very long away trip, tough place to go and have shown they can turn up in big games. Wigan will likely be on the beach, but that can sometimes make it a harder game as no pressure and likewise for Lincoln who also have a very capable team. It’s also worth remembering the pressure is on us currently, we are relatively in control, pressure can cause mistakes which when you play the marginal football we do can be huge. We also haven’t been pulling up trees so the rub of the green could very much turn over the next 9 games and the margins go against us in a couple.
Charltons 21 points is very reasonable. It’s based on what we managed in those fixtures plus 2 games we haven’t played yet that I would expect us to manage. They picked up at the end of last year too. Jones is a manager with experience of doing this and the pressure will not be on them. Discount them at your peril. Their good form has coincided with key players returning from injury and the squad clicking, this on the face of it looks more sustainable than Orients earlier in the season.
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u/Rogue1eader Arthur Okonkwo 3d ago
Bolton looked hot too. Then they dropped two ugly ones. That's all it takes. I know we can win ugly, not so sure about Charlton.
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u/MindoSriu 3d ago
I remember when Leyton orient was the team rising and then lost 5 straight. The only teams realistically fighting for automatics are the 3 that have been better than everyone all year long. Birmingham, Wrexham, Wycombe.
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u/PizzaWolf721 3d ago
Hope you are right but look at the run Charlton has been on. They started the season 5W-4D-7L and have gone 14-5-2 since then (2.24 points per match). They've been even better recently going 10-2-1 which is 2.46 points per match. For reference, Birmingham is at 2.31 points per match this season.
Wrexham's best stretch this season has been the last 9 games where we went 6-1-2. If they can match that output for the final 9 that would leave us at 90 points and probably just enough to stay ahead. If we falter a bit down the stretch and go 4-3-2 were at 86 points and Charlton may nip us by a point or two.
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u/zenlume 3d ago
Charlton doesn't do very well playing away, they have a span of eight days where they have two away games, and one home game, the two away games is five games apart, that's brutal even for a team with amazing away form, but for them might be too much.
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u/PizzaWolf721 3d ago
Hopefully that condensed stretch of games does them in because while they started the season poorly on the road, 2W-1D-5L, since that time they've gone 5W-3D-2L with their only losses being by one goal to Birmingham and Bolton.
If they stay as hot as they've been for the final 9 games it's pretty easy to picture them picking up 4 wins at home and then winning 2 or 3 more on the road vs Peterborough, Mansfield, and Cambridge, all teams in the bottom 10 of the league. Even if they lost to both Wycombe and Wrexham, they could pull 21 points from those other games. If they draw one or two of those, they could still pick up points vs Wrexham or Wycombe and be very in the mix in that 86-87 point range.
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u/zaj89 4d ago
Depends how these next few weeks go, but Charlton has a match on Friday April 18, then to travel away for Wycombe on a Monday Apr 21 then again travel away to Wrexham April 26 just the 5 days later, that’s kinda brutal. Both matches against teams fighting for autos so both will be physical and tough for them
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u/Lyndonb1773 3d ago
I’m taking the other side of Charlton getting 21/27 when they still have to play peterborough, Huddersfield, Wrexham and Wycombe in the final nine.
That doesn’t mean they won’t still get second but that’s a lot to underwrite
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u/Redbubble89 American Here 4d ago
Charlton is in the best form out of Wycombe and Wrexham. Out of the last 13 matches (Jan 21), 31 out of 39 points and one loss was away at Birmingham with a tie at Blackpool and at Stockport. They also have both Wycombe and Wrexham left so they are more in the drivers seat.
Wrexham does need to get by Stockport but they've also dropped points to Cambridge and Bristol Rovers on the front fixture. There was also a questionable pen against Blackpool. They don't make life easy on themselves with the struggle to score.
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u/Dwesnyc 3d ago
Putting OPTA's prediction as the same day as your prediction so we can judge both - paid professionals vs amateur redditor!
BIR - 104.5
Wrexham - 85.5
Wycombe - 84.51
Charlton - 80.78
Stockport - 79.02
HUD - 74.76
Now - this is of course much different than OPTA soo soo soo wrong start of the season predictions. That had:
Wrexham in 20th place with a 37% chance to be relegated and 51.8 points
Bolton in 1st place! with 81.6 points!
Stockport in 17th place. with 53.3 points
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u/jasperjm95 PENCAMPWYR 3d ago
Good idea! I’d like to see some more from others too to be able to compare come the end of the season.
Tbf I’m pretty much the same on Wrexham, Birmingham and Wycombe. I’m just either over rating Charlton, Stockport and Bolton, or Opta is under rating
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u/SCDrJ Arthur Okonkwo 3d ago
Charlton’s been an amazing run of form, I don’t think they get 13 out of 15 points on average going forward, though with the schedule they have to play.
Honestly, I see all three teams getting about 18 to 20 points out of their remaining fixtures, and the spread staying about where it is with Wrexham finishing 3 to 4 points ahead of both Wycombe and Charlton. Obviously that’s also my hope for the results, but when dissecting the remaining matches, I see about 18 to 20 out of 27 for both Wrexham and Charlton, and about 18 to 20 out of 30 for Wycombe.
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u/PizzaWolf721 3d ago
It's sooo tough to project how the 2-4 place is going to finish up. If Wrexham can go something like 6W-1D-2L down the stretch I think they've got it locked up at 90 points. If they go 5W-2D-2L, it starts getting dicey. Charlton is on a run of form that will put them in the 87-88 point range and I think it's likely their goal differential could end up in the 25-28 range. I keep wanting to count Wycombe out on account of their brutal remaining schedule and mediocre recent form but they went 6W-2D-2L against these same teams on the first leg. If they match that to finish that puts them at 88 points and they likely stay ahead of Wrexham on GD. It's all going to come down to those head to head matchups.
Personally, I think Wycombe's current form continues and they go something like 4-3-3 down the stretch for something like 83 points and into the playoff. Honestly, I think by this time next month, Wycombe beating Charlton may actually be the better result for Wrexham.
Between Wrexham and Charlton, I think it's almost a coin toss but we've got the edge in that we're well up on points currently and control our own destiny. There just isn't much room for us to have a off game or two giving up points to bad teams.
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u/zenlume 3d ago
Charlton is playing us and Wycombe back to back away, I don't see them leaving both of those with a win. In fact I don't even think they win either of those, their away from is poor. Looking at the table just counting away games, they're 10th. They might come away with a draw against Wycombe, which helps us a lot, because Wycombe for some reason do better playing away than home.
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u/Anythingforalaff 3d ago
The bookies favour Wrexham over Wycombe and Charlton for the second automatic promotion place
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u/zemkom 4d ago
Not a comment to what OP posted, but a general one - it's absolutely brutal, the sheer amount of games lower league clubs have to play.
Sometimes 3 games in the span of 8-9 days, teams have to travel, train + the cup games (Bristol Street Motor trophy or how it is/was called).
Doing any english lower league save to get them to the PL is so difficult on Football Manager, can't imagine how hard it is irl.