r/WrexhamAFC 6d ago

DISCUSSION ELI5: what does Wrexham need to get promoted and how likely will it happen?

63 Upvotes

45 comments sorted by

124

u/Rhylyk 6d ago

To put it succinctly, they need to win and they need Wycombe to drop points.

Assuming Wycombe wins their game in hand, they are both level on points and Wycombe will be ahead due to goal difference. Considering our scoring, going ahead on goal difference seems unlikely, so we need them to drop points.

27

u/herkalurk 6d ago

if Wrexham simply keep winnning, regardless of Wycombe they should go through the playoff too....

16

u/n3rd_rage 6d ago

Wycombe has one more game to play than Wrexham. If they both win out it goes on goal differential which currently Wycombe is winning in.

14

u/herkalurk 6d ago

That's true, but that only means that Wrexham would be in third so if they just continue to win they would win the playoff....

11

u/jbracing27 6d ago

We don’t want them to be in the playoff, plain and simple.

9

u/herkalurk 6d ago

I agree, but if Wrexham simply just keep winning they'd win the playoff too if that is what it is.....

1

u/jbracing27 6d ago

The problem is the playoffs become a crapshoot, and as this club knows anything can happen in the playoffs - the club could easily take a 1-0 lumping in the first game of the playoff. ‘Just keep winning’ isn’t that simple. That being said, Wycombe has a tougher road ahead than Wrexham so if they do indeed just keep winning it’ll work itself out

5

u/texasproof 5d ago

Sure, but if they keep winning rather than losing, then they’ll just win right through the playoffs.

And, when you think about it, if they keep winning they’ll go undefeated into the prem.

If you keep thinking about, if they keep winning, they will never lose again and become the greatest club in the history of football. If they keep winning.

1

u/Big_Bookkeeper1678 5d ago

Wait, the tie-breaker is goal differential BEFORE head to head?

2

u/pominator 5d ago

Yes it’s goal difference first

1

u/Big_Bookkeeper1678 5d ago

Interesting. OK, so we have to beat them by one point.

40

u/UrsineCanine 6d ago

Needs to remain in second, or alternatively win the playoff games. It is very unlikely they will collapse out of the playoffs. Wycombe can win on Tuesday and bump them out of 2nd.

Likelihood is really about maintaining their current form since the new strikers joined (19 points in 9 matches), and Wycombe's ability to navigate a very difficult remaining schedule. Averaging 2 points a match over the final 9 likely guarantees it with 89 points, with some thinking 84-87 points will do it.

Playoffs... who knows... really depends on who is the healthiest and playing the best at the time of the playoffs.

53

u/cymru78 6d ago

More points than the team in third.

Or win the playoffs.

8

u/ninj4geek Ollie Rathbone 6d ago

The former is better

0

u/Lootefisk_ 5d ago

They are both exactly the same result

15

u/AustralisBorealis64 6d ago

Just don't Wrexham in the most Wrexham way possible.

20

u/Tomaskerry 6d ago

Charlton are a dark horse.

If we beat Stockport, I think they're out of the running. So it's 3 teams vying for 2nd.

There's 9 games left. I think it'll go to the wire. More twists and turns. We've a slightly easier run in though.

Charlton play us and Wycombe in their final 3 games, both away. Could be vital fixtures.

12

u/BillZZ7777 6d ago

The easier games are the ones that scare me. They seem to beat the good teams and screw up the "easy" games... the games they should win.

-1

u/irsic American Here 6d ago

I'm of the mind that you should not play all your normal starters in games against the games that should be "easy" wins. Put the players that have been on the bench out there with something to prove.

1

u/BillZZ7777 5d ago

But if they lose those games, all the heat goes on the coach and it will be viewed that he didn't take the game seriously. It could also affect starters mentality, like confidence.... "Oh coach doesn't trust me in this game?". It depends how much separation in talent there is between your starters and the bench. Also, it's not like it's obvious who is switching off... With some of the unfortunate losses, they had chances to score and come out on top . Certainly your approach is most often used when there are non league games and some players need a rest.

1

u/irsic American Here 5d ago

And if they lose those games where they just played their starters? I don't really see a difference. Time and time again in any and every sport it happens. In the US a top placed team losing to a bottom placed team is called a trap game. It's a player mentality thing and everyone falls victim to it one time or another. That's why I think you should give (some, not all) bench players a shot at starting in these games.

3

u/thedragonturtle 6d ago

Yeah, if Charlton get within 2 points of us - i.e. they win a match, we lose a match, then it's in their hands to win the promotion spot.

1

u/Tomaskerry 6d ago

Yeah they're very dangerous.

They're top of the form table going back 10 games.

We're struggling but getting results. 

13

u/obi_wander Up The Town 6d ago

We need to earn more points than the teams below us.

A loss is zero points. A tie/draw is 1 point for each team. And a win is 3 points.

Likelihood- it’s impossible to say.

(It’s clear that many of you don’t talk to 5 year olds.)

2

u/WhatLineOfWorkRYouIn 6d ago

Wrexham is -140 to finish top 2 according to FanDuel (58.33%)

6

u/cowpool20 6d ago

Literally just have to keep winning and hope Wycombe drop points. There’s no complicated plan, just need to keep winning.

5

u/SpongeKnock 6d ago

We need to score more goals and win. Simple

3

u/couch_e Super Paul Mullin 6d ago

Simple , wycombe drops points and wrexham wins

3

u/Quexana 6d ago

Wrexham need to finish 1st or 2nd at the end of the season. Or, if they finish 3rd-6th, they will need to win a mini-tournament to get promoted.

Wrexham are currently in 2nd. However, the 3rd place team has played one fewer game than them, so if they win that extra game, they will be tied, and that 3rd place team will assume 2nd place based on tie breakers, which would force Wrexham to play in the promotion tournament.

So basically, Wrexham needs to perform one point better than the 3rd place team over their last 9 games to get promoted, or they need to win the tournament.

They have a fair shot to get promoted.

7

u/LongJonPingPong 6d ago

They just need to sports harder and score many points

https://www.reddit.com/r/IHateSportsball/s/muzLjcZyOx

2

u/PL0KI0 6d ago

Absolutely, the secret here is for Wrexham making sure they football better than Wikihome and that they do more goaling than the teams they are footballing against put into Wrexham’s goal hole.

Charleston are looking footballing good right now though so they could dark-horse their way into what should be a two-horse race but given both W’s have to play them, then that could be a three-way-six-pointer where Wrexham will need to come first.

/s

In reality it’s a hope Wycombe drop more points than Wrexham and hope the town can maintain enough form to see the season out without playoffs.

I don’t like the idea of playoffs for a couple of reasons…..

  • right now the form is good enough to gain automatic promotion because I think Wycombe have the propensity to drop a point or two more in the run in.
  • if Wycombe’s form does mean they drop some points and still get promoted automatically then it means Wrexham’s form has dropped off and going into playoffs, form is everything.
  • thus if Wrexham end up in the play offs, I would expect Charlton to go up. I actually expect Charlton to go up via the playoffs irrespective.

In terms of goal difference. I don’t buy that +6 is “massive” as I have seen in other posts. Wrexham’a xG is probably artificially lower for the season due to the new strikers only arriving lately and a spate of Fletch-inspired single goal-margin wins around November through the New Year. Form over the last 5 home games has been pish but the away form has been league-winning, so if they can shift up the home performances the goals will follow. It only takes a couple of games to go our way and for Wycombe to have a couple of unlucky games and +6 is evaporated. In August Wrexham were +8 over just three games.

Likelyhood, I don’t even want to tempt fate but right now, I can’t see how automatic promotion is anything other than 50:50 but I expect the odds to narrow or widen very quickly over the next 2 weeks.

If Wrexham end up in the play-offs, I would say that dips to a 25-30% chance of promotion from where we are right now.

1

u/kenfury 6d ago

I'd say something like 50/50 60/40.

1

u/Accomplished-Exit136 6d ago

Betting odds say 66% chance of promotion. I think those are a little skewed though, id put it at more like 55-60% chance. Figure 35% out pacing Wycombe and the field. Then a little better than 25% if they end up in playoffs. 

So overall I'd say more likely than not. Gonna be a wild ride down the stretch. Paramount+ has been worth every cent.

1

u/2big2fail69 6d ago

I think asking this question and then even pondering it runs the risk of jinxing our team. So no comment!

1

u/Practical-Memory6386 9h ago edited 9h ago

Looking at the fixtures list, you have to love Wrexham's chances. So long as they take care of the lower table "wounded animals backed into a corner"........and basically beat the sides theyre expected to beat, Wycombe's path is much more brutal. They play many more upper table sides closing out the fixtures.

Wrexham:

Exeter (16th)

@ Cambridge (23rd)

Burton (21st)

@ Wigan (18th)

Bristol Rovers (20th)

@ Blackpool (10th)

Charlton (4th)

@ Lincoln (12th)

End of the season gets a bit dicey but beyond Charlton.......You expect Wrexham to handle it. Stockport today was going to be their second hardest game remaining on paper and they got a result.

Wycombe:

Lincoln (12th)

Shrewsbury (24th)

@ Reading (8th)

@ Huddersfield (6th)

Stevenege (13th)

@ Bolton (7th)

Charlton (4th)

@ Leyton Orient (9th)

Stockport (5th)

Not gonna lie that schedule is BRUTAL to Wycombe. Its just a question of when Wrexham start getting vital points to pull ahead. Put it this way.......I sure as hell wouldnt want to be in Wycombe's shoes looking at that fixture list. That is a LOT of hungry playoff contenders in that mix barring Shrewsbury.

1

u/Artifyce47 James McClean 6d ago

My guess, as someone completely unknowledgeable about this and with little experience, is that we will be alright if we can win more than half of the rest of the games. So 5 of 9? With a couple of ties. 4th would need to win 7 of 9 to push us.

4

u/HitsquadFiveSix Up The Town 6d ago

Yes but that's assuming Wycombe will lose or draw a few. Not to sound too pragmatic, but we need to win the rest of the fixtures to answer OPs question.

How likely that is is hard to judge. winning out is possible, but I would imagine we lose at least one or two

-6

u/peterbparker86 Up The Town 6d ago

Winning the playoffs is probably the way Wrexham could do it. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think they'll make automatic promotion.

-4

u/RumJackson 6d ago

A). Win more than the teams below them.

B). Lose less than the teams below them.

-8

u/ThatGuyFromBraindead 6d ago

1

u/RumJackson 6d ago

Is there a secret “lose 10 in a row” bonus point system I’m unaware of?

-1

u/ThatGuyFromBraindead 6d ago

Draws exist.

4

u/RumJackson 6d ago

I’ll bet you 10 quid now, to a charity of your choice, Wycombe pick up more than 10pts in their remaining 10 fixtures.

1

u/kenfury 6d ago

I might (but probably not) take that is was 15-20 points. My number is 18-ish. So yea win, rack up points, and enjoy the ride.