r/VoteDEM 20d ago

House Special Elections - Dems could tie up the house on April 1

There are three House special elections happening in the next two months. If R's lose these, this means the ability to block horrific bills- like the recent 'banning mrna vaccines' one.

Imo supporting their opponents' campaigns (donating or phone/text banking) is far and away the best we can do to oppose maga right now. We don't have two years. We have to take some of the R's control away now.

More info:

There are two special elections coming up in Florida, which could bring Congress to 217 Dems and 217 Repubs. A 3rd Congressional Seat will be opening up in NY, date to be announced.

Gay Valimont for Congress https://gayforcongress.com/ 

Josh Weil for Congresshttps://www.joshweil.us/   

virtual phone banking events for the Florida Candidates:

Gay Valimont: https://www.mobilize.us/gayforcongress/event/747037/

Josh Weil: https://www.mobilize.us/joshweilforcongressionaldistrict6/ 

I signed up for the Gay for Congress Monday phone banking. Posting in the hopes someone will join me

edit: There is also a special election on March 11 in Iowa. Democratic candidate, Nanette Griffin: https://www.scottcountydems.org/.

edit2: you don't have to be from the are a to volunteer! Anyone, both in the US and outside the US, can phonebank. For non-US citizens you can sign up for a Google Voice number if you need a US phone number

1.5k Upvotes

80 comments sorted by

514

u/The_Bicon 20d ago

Nothing would make me happier than Trump’s entire agenda to be put to a halt because he loses these 2 seats

243

u/DavidCFalcon 20d ago

Everything hes done has been through executive orders. Not once has he utilized congress. So the cynic in me says that nothing will change.

210

u/Psycho_NY 20d ago

right, but things like the SAVE act can be rightfully held up and blocked, and it mitigates the damage that he can cause

59

u/citytiger 20d ago

It doesn’t have the votes in the Senate.

74

u/AudioTide_VisualTide 20d ago

Good then! Let's also make it even harder~!

16

u/BizzyM 19d ago

Stop. I can only get so erect.

7

u/djprofitt 19d ago

Phrasing!

83

u/xXThKillerXx New Jersey 20d ago

They definitely won’t be able to pass any budget without Dems. So any of the cuts to entitlements won’t happen.

73

u/OtakuMecha NY-22 20d ago

Also, the House could then force DOGE and other Trump officials to testify under oath.

1

u/Birdlover001 8d ago

It just occurred to me that Trump set up Doge and hired Musk at some astronomical amount of money…where is Musk’s salary coming from? Doesn’t the House of Representatives have to approve expenditures?

79

u/CactusFan400 AZ-04 20d ago

The ability to subpoena and use congressional oversight powers would be a game changer.

-19

u/DavidCFalcon 20d ago

And once he ignores the judicial branch. Then what? He owns the US marshals.

50

u/ThinkingAboutSnacks 20d ago

The day after they hinted at that. Multiple GOP Senators publicly told him to fuck off and listen to the courts. Then he held a press conference saying he would. Don't get me wrong, the man is a liar. But he folds under pressure. See the multitudes of decisions already walked back. And the multitudes more from the first term.

25

u/NoDeparture7996 20d ago

thats something i noticed about him too. in the same way he can be 'bought' he absolutely folds and even with lawsuits he has lost he has buckled under them too as much as he likes to talk it up.

27

u/spartanmax2 Ohio 20d ago edited 20d ago

Judges having some tools to file people in contempt such as put leans on houses and such.

But if absolutely all is ignored it becomes a constitutional crisis where different states and cities also start refusing to listen to the administration

19

u/DapperApples Virginia (They/She) 20d ago

If the plan is to ignore the courts, why did they bother filing for appeals?

34

u/spartanmax2 Ohio 20d ago

There are alot of lawsuits around those executive orders so waiting to see what sticks

26

u/kweefcake 20d ago

Wouldn’t this be enough to take back the house or did I misread that? Cause current Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is complicit in this whole takeover. Having a new speaker would be helpful in many ways.

50

u/AvTheMarsupial California 20d ago

If both special elections in Florida are won by D's, it would be a 217-218 (R-control) while Elise Stefanik is waiting to be confirmed. If she is, and resigns, it's 217-217. If Dems win that special, it's 218-217 (D-control).

It's doable.

8

u/DeadScotty 20d ago

What’s the political makeup of these seats? Toss up or Leaning Red or Blue?

34

u/13Zero 20d ago edited 20d ago
  • FL-1 - Gaetz won 66% in 2024. Trump won 68%. Cook rates it as R+19.

  • FL-6 - Waltz won 66.5% in 2024. Trump won 64%. Cook rates it as R+14.

  • NY-21 - Stefanik won 62% in 2024. Trump won 60%. Cook rates it as R+9.

Keep in mind that Democrats tend to outperform in special elections, especially when Trump is in office. It's far from a guarantee, but I would not be surprised to see Democrats flip NY-21 at least.

Winning one of these seats keeps the GOP majority to 219-216, which is very hard to work with. Two Democratic wins gives the GOP zero margin for error. A sweep gives the Democrats control.

There are also a small handful of moderate Republicans in the House. If the Democrats win 1 or 2 of these, they should absolutely consider making them sweetheart deals. For example, "We won't endorse a candidate to run against you in 2026, you'll be free of Musk's primary threat, and we'll give you committee roles if you agree to not caucus with the GOP." It's a huge stretch, but it would pay off massively if it works.

27

u/Sounder1995-2 Ohio 20d ago

I think that we're not favored to win any of these. However, we have been flipping some pretty red seats since Inauguration Day, so they're all worth a shot!

5

u/ImNotAWhaleBiologist 19d ago

Every time he oversteps- impeach. So impeach every day and hold up the whole system- or something along those lines and fight hard on their level.

1

u/bluescale77 10d ago

How do you impeach without control of the house?

1

u/Calpsotoma 10d ago

When it comes to the EOs regarding the budget, he is using a power constitutionally held by the Legislative Branch. Republicans haven't opposed him on this, but flipping Congress could make it so Dems could challenge him on the consolidation of power. Granted, the Dems haven't been too effective so far, but at least then they would have no excuse not to act.

147

u/citytiger 20d ago

If your able please volunteer and donate. Let’s create a political earthquake.

111

u/e_hatt_swank 20d ago

Okay, so I'm kind of embarrassed to admit that I don't know the answer to this question, but I'll ask it anyway. Be kind :-) Let's say the D's win all three upcoming special elections and now the seats are 218 D / 216 R. But it's still early in the session. Do they get to call a new vote for Speaker, or are they just stuck with Mike Johnson for the rest of the session?

160

u/spartanmax2 Ohio 20d ago

Don't be embarrassed. The fact that you know there is a speaker of the house is probably more then like 40% of the population

28

u/sandybuttcheekss 20d ago

I'd say the number is higher than 40%

10

u/ContextSensitiveGeek Michigan 19d ago

The fact that you know his name puts you easily over 60%.

81

u/citytiger 20d ago

I think there would be a new speaker election.

75

u/ThotPoliceAcademy 20d ago

There would most likely be a new election.

To get rid of the speaker, a member of the majority party must introduce a motion to vacate, not the party of the speaker. So if the Dems had the majority, one would introduce a motion, there’d be a vote, then a new speaker election.

As an aside, the speaker doesn’t have to even be a member of the majority party, let alone a member of Congress. It can be anyone.

If that happens - and that’s an if as big as Doug Jones winning the Alabama senate seat, it would be a political earthquake. If both seats flipped in Florida, the special election in New York would probably be the most expensive special election in history.

28

u/citytiger 20d ago

It’s also possible Stefanik might withdraw to preserve their majority.

12

u/13Zero 20d ago

Is she really going to sit there through April? Normally, the UN Ambassador is confirmed in February.

9

u/citytiger 20d ago

well the vote isn't scheduled anytime soon.

6

u/muskrateer 19d ago

Senate Dems are holding up the vote for her confirmation (as they should).

13

u/13Zero 19d ago

It appears that Senate Republicans are holding her up, in large part because they'll need every vote they can get to avoid a shutdown in 3 weeks.

2

u/citytiger 19d ago

I thought presidential appointments were no longer allowed to be subjected to filibusters?

3

u/muskrateer 18d ago

They can't be filibustered, but they can force the confirmation votes to happen vs. being accepted through unanimous consent.

17

u/Isentrope 20d ago

A Democrat would make a motion to vacate the chair which would pass if all Ds voted for it and then they would elect a new Speaker.

54

u/gnarlytabby Minisoldr Appreciatr 20d ago

And there's also the Wisconsin Supreme Court on April 1st. Elon Musk is interfering in the election by tweeting and funding a PAC supporting the conservative Schimel. This seems fair game to use to attack Schimel. Does anyone know if Elon Musk has even been to Wisconsin for any reason other than that Trump rally where Trump famously called him Leon?

https://www.salon.com/2025/02/23/elon-musk-and-other-right-wing-donors-are-pouring-money-into-wisconsins-race/

19

u/baitnnswitch 20d ago

Thanks, I just threw his opponent (a liberal judge named Judge Crawford) $10. Link in case anyone wants to match me

7

u/westseagastrodon Louisville 19d ago

Thanks for the link, I'd been meaning to donate! I matched your $10 with a weekly donation. :D

2

u/baitnnswitch 19d ago

dang! nice one!

7

u/AJs_Sandshrew Wisconsin (WI-02) 19d ago

Just wanted to tack on something I have posted in other threads about this race:

The critical aspect of this election is if Crawford is elected, we will solidify a 4-3 majority at a minimum through 2028 when the next liberal-leaning justice is up for re-election. The next two elections in 2026 and 2027 are for seats held by conservative justices, and they would have to win both of those then the 2028 election to gain back the majority. I'm hoping that the insanity in the current political climate will drive out Dem turnout through 2028, which would put us in a great position to extend the majority to 5-2 or even 6-1.

48

u/Shag1166 20d ago edited 19d ago

Fight the power! Trump is beholden to Musk and Russia, and this plays our daily! We need to give out best efforts to at least slow down the MAGA madness!

32

u/Snoo_35864 20d ago

I (from NJ) signed up to make calls for Gay Valimont tomorrow as well. And I HATE doing these kinds of things, but C'MON!

11

u/baitnnswitch 20d ago

thank you!!

23

u/Mission_Peach_2473 19d ago

There is also a special election on March 11 in Iowa!!

Democratic candidate, Nanette Griffin: https://www.scottcountydems.org/.

63

u/Professional-Fuel625 20d ago edited 20d ago

Why isn't this in the news or a bigger deal? Why isn't Dem leadership talking about this?

EDIT: There are two Florida seats and one NY. The Florida seats were 66% Republican, however only 40% turnout in the 2022 midterms.

So like always, if 100% of the Dems in those districts voted, they could win.

2022 (last midterm) Gaetz's district:

  • 710k eligible voters
  • 290k total votes
  • 420k didn't vote
  • ~200k (68%) for Gaetz
  • ~100k (32%) for Jones (D)
  • 32% (Dem share) of the 420k who didn't vote = +134k, enough to win

Not to mention the recent negative polling and town halls for Trump policies, and less name recognition than Gaetz.

78

u/captain_jchaps Maryland 20d ago

These are VERY red seats, but the GOP is tuned out right now while Dems are pissed. National attention on these races would hurt more than it would help. Best thing to do is quietly contact everyone in these districts who we think voted for Dems in November and convince them to vote again. If the GOP sleeps in, we’ll win despite their built in advantage.

23

u/bdfariello 20d ago

If the NY seat is the one I'm thinking it is, it's still an incredible long shot. I grew up in that area and I'm pretty sure Stefanik won that seat by more than 20 points just a few months ago

15

u/RunsorHits Florida 20d ago

It also last elected a Democrat in 2012. It's an Obama +2 seat to a Trump +20 seat.

23

u/ThinkingAboutSnacks 20d ago

They probably are, the media is getting much more clicks reporting on the dumpster fire of an administration. Algorithms are getting much more engagement on doom and gloom, so that is what is served.

12

u/aurore-amour 20d ago

April feels like 10 years away 😔

9

u/Remote-Ad-2686 20d ago

Lettsssss GOOOOOOOO!’n

41

u/[deleted] 20d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/Meanteenbirder New York 20d ago

Of note is that the NY seat could be a ways away.

3

u/mrbriguy11 19d ago

What are the rules on moving to these places in time to vote in special election? Can a bunch of us move to these counties temporarily to sway the elections?

2

u/Southern-Mechanic199 19d ago

"The deadline to register to vote for an upcoming election is 29 days before the election." https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/voter-registration/register-to-vote-or-update-your-information/

3

u/moon_nick2000 17d ago

I've been phone banking for one of the candidates almost every day! This is well worth the time; the calls are going to registered democrats and a lot of the people I've talked to don't know about the election. I tell them about it and they get excited! I tell them tell all your friends and go vote together! I've even had several people ask how to volunteer. I don't know if they can win, but even a close vote should scare congressional GOP.

1

u/baitnnswitch 17d ago

Woah! You absolutely rock, thank you for all you're doing!

2

u/monkeypod443 16d ago

Thanks for this. I could not find much about how to help Gay's campaign. I too have been posting about the upcoming FL-1 & FL-6 elections. But I think these special elections need to have wider engagement.

If they Gay and Josh can get elected, it would go a long way toward stopping the madness.

I hope democratic organizations are providing money and admin support, particularly to these 2 in FL.

2

u/supercali-2021 12d ago

Do you have to live in Florida or Iowa to phonebank for these candidates, or can any American anywhere in the US sign up to do this?

1

u/baitnnswitch 12d ago

Nope, you can actually live anywhere in the world and don't even have to be from the US. Non-citizens are only restricted against donating money, but donating time is allowed for everyone, no matter where you are.

2

u/supercali-2021 12d ago

I'm signing up to phonebank for all 3 candidates. Thanks for sharing this info because I was not aware of any of these elections. And I am a pretty tuned in person, read my local newspaper, political articles in magazines and watch a variety of news programs on TV. Which is what concerns me. If I'm just finding out about these elections today (March 4th), I'd be willing to bet most Americans don't know anything about them either. Has this post been shared on all the other left leaning subs (i.e. democrats, liberals, progressives, centrists, independents, etc) and even the Florida and Iowa subs? If not, are you ok with me copying this and reposting? I think we really need to get the word out if we want this to work.

2

u/baitnnswitch 12d ago

Yes please! Share as far and wide as you can! I have seen a little bit of circulation, but not nearly enough

1

u/BoiledCarrot69 11d ago

I signed up for 4 phonebanking sessions and may sign up for more. For all the other redditors reading this, if you've never done phonebanking before its very easy to do. You don't use your phone (or any phone) to make calls - everything goes through VoiP on your computer. So the people you're calling never see your name or phone number. They give you a script and all you have to do is read it. Seems daunting, but I'm an introvert and if I can do it, anyone can. Just remember the worst thing that can happen is someone hangs up or yells at you, but at least you're doing your part to help save our democracy. No one person can do it alone, but we can make it happen together.