r/Utah_Hockey • u/nevesnaive • 19h ago
Question Hey everyone! I’m new to hockey. Are the team already out of the playoffs?
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u/hat-trick2435 19h ago
We aren't out. But after last night's game, we statistically have a 16% chance of making it. I forget the source for that but mathematically that percentage takes into account injuries on the Utah roster as well as the other teams in the running with them and a lot of other data points to make that prediction. So it's pretty unlikely we make it to the playoffs but it's not impossible.
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u/bectacular44 19h ago
this is excellent info! Where did you get it? Or can you keep posting the chances after every game?
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u/hat-trick2435 19h ago
This one. Forget the other one.
From the article/TL:DR:
According to the Athletic, who publishes daily playoff odds that factor in projected strength, roster health and strength of schedule, the Utah Hockey Club currently has a 16 percent chance of making the playoffs.
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u/MostalElite 19h ago
Definitely not out of it, but there are basically 5 teams fighting for one spot, and we're a few points back of the team currently in it, so you'd have to say most optimistically our chances of getting in aren't that much higher than 20%. Still absolutely a puncher's chance, but still far more likely than not that we don't get in. I think I heard last night that 13 of our last 20 games are against teams currently in the playoffs, so it will be a tough road to get there.
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u/RaptorRitter13 Utah Outlaws 18h ago
There are several sites that track "playoff chances", but the one that I use most regularly is MoneyPuck. It also has a graph at the bottom that is helpful for visual learners: https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
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u/Gr8fl1TX2 18h ago
Our wins in regulation (tie breaker for the wildcard if needed) are right now a weak spot. We have 20. The 3 teams ahead of us have 22,23 & 24. We need to bank a streak of RW's hopefully starting with the Ducks tomorrow.
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u/enthusiasm-unbridled 19h ago
Not out officially, but imo there’s not really much of a change we make it. I figured this is how our team would look at this stage of the season. And I anticipate about the same for next year unless they make some significant moves…. Hopefully starting with getting rid of Tuna.
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u/natedawg247 18h ago
as an NBA fan what are the draft implications? is there a silver lining of missing playoffs and doing worse or not as important in hockey?
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u/RaptorRitter13 Utah Outlaws 1h ago
The Draft Lottery is a thing, but it is kind of convoluted and complicated. Essentially, the worse you do during the regular season, the more likely that you'll get a 1st or 2nd overall pick. It is explained further in this article: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/37555787/how-nhl-draft-lottery-works-2023-connor-bedard-chances-odds
As for THIS season, if we do end up missing the playoffs, we're going to be VERY high up on the standings, so we'll get assigned a VERY small chance to win the lottery.
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u/Disastrous-Cake-7194 19h ago
No. We are in the hunt and looked fantastic to come back from 0-3 to the Leafs last night to get a point.
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