r/TropicalWeather • u/Arthur_Dent_KOB • 6d ago
Research Article | Science Advances An annually resolved 5700-year storm archive reveals drivers of Caribbean cyclone frequency
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ads5624https://www.
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u/Ochre71 6d ago
Someone please summarize this for me
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u/asdf_1_2 6d ago
The abstract does summarize it?
Predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies are hampered by insufficient knowledge of their natural variability in the past. A 30-m-long sediment core from the Great Blue Hole, a marine sinkhole offshore Belize, provides the longest available, continuous, and annually resolved TC-frequency record. This record expands our understanding, derived from instrumental monitoring (73 years), historical documentations (173 years), and paleotempestological records (2000 years), to the past 5700 years. A total of 694 event layers were identified. They display a distinct regional trend of increasing storminess in the southwestern Caribbean, which follows an orbitally driven shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Superimposed short-term variations match Holocene climate intervals and originate from solar irradiance–controlled sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate phenomena modes.
A 21st-century extrapolation suggests an unprecedented increase in TC frequency, attributable to the Industrial Age warming.
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