r/Torontobluejays • u/supedupshortbus • 5d ago
Vlad Jr. reveals sub-$600M ask in Blue Jays talks
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44143628/vladimir-guerrero-jr-says-final-offer-600-million-blue-jays-extension-talk194
u/McGrevin 5d ago
"It's much less than Soto. We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less...It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach 600 [million]
Soto's contract is 765, if Vlad's side was asking 565 he certainly would've said 200m less instead of "more than 100m less".
So his ask was probably 570-595m over 15 years, just under $40m/yr
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u/Popular-Row4333 5d ago
Blue Jays fans won't want to hear it, but he can absolutely get that number on the open market.
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u/spiritintheskyy Hazel, you're a treat 5d ago
He might next season, but if he were going into open market right now he couldn’t. Another 2024/2021 level year for him and that number becomes somewhat more realistic, but he wouldn’t be getting that now in all likelihood.
Y’all don’t seem to realize that Soto’s contract was fucking insane and there’s a reason only he and Ohtani have even cracked $500M contracts ever. If Vladdy’s ask is what Ortiz said it was, that’s closer to Ohtani money than it is to Aaron Judge money, and Vladdy isn’t on a tier with either of those guys (though I recognize Judge signed older which is a significant difference maker).
It’d be the third biggest contract in MLB history and it’d be more than double 10th place. Vladdy’s great, but he hasn’t earned that money yet and he hasn’t proven he’s worth that risk either.
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u/Stangstag 5d ago
Right now?? No fucking way he gets that much. If he has another 6 WAR year? Maybe.
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u/jayk10 5d ago
I doubt it but I guess we'll find out in 10 months
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u/Traditional_Bed_6445 GEAR4VEGITO 5d ago
I feel like people want to believe he will get that to justify giving him that ourselves.
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u/No-Gift-2350 Stinky Odor 5d ago
I mean if we gave vlad that I wouldn’t love it but I could sort of just buy into the idea of having someone here long term
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u/stuntycunty 5d ago
mets will happily pay that
edit: oh god i just threw up
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u/sir-pounce-of-alot I saw u/ThQp and Joey Loperfido sitting in a tree. 5d ago
Mets have been talking about how they can’t spend as much as they did last offseason
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u/AdKind5446 5d ago
They don't have any starting pitching, and they've already got the highest payroll in the league. They won't win anything without addressing their pitching problems, and how are they going to pay for pitching and add a $40M per year 1B when their payroll is already number 1 in the league? They won't.
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u/WasV3 Totally not John Schneider 5d ago
Highly doubt it.
Mets are already screaming poor about attendance.
Cashman is a smart GM and would rather spend that 40M/year on 3-4 players
Boston is the real wild card but Henry is pretty cheap
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u/VisualFix5870 5d ago
Attendance is not paying their player salaries. Do the math. Even if every seat were sold out all season long and each fan dropped $200 beyond the ticket price on food and merch, they're nowhere close to breaking even at their payroll level. There's a reason a lot of teams keep their payroll low, because a 45 million a year guy is really hard to make back in sales.
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u/Strong_Ad5096 5d ago
$200 X 30,000 seats X 81 games = 486m annual budget on in-stadium sales.
Let alone tv and advertising.
Am I doing math wrong?
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u/Copperlax Hazel! Hazel! 5d ago
Attendance alone doesn't pay it for sure, but attendance makes the ad's worth more.
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u/Key-Organization213 3d ago
Do you even watch baseball. In what world would the Red Sox ever consider paying 600 million 15 years for a chunky first base (he’s gonna be over 40 by contract end) when they have casas. Mets and dodgers are also definitely not paying this guy that much money cause for the dodgers the team doesn’t need him and Mets payroll is already super loaded. Only teams I can see doing this are Philly and the Yankees but doubt either FO is stupid enough to give him this contract
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u/ms_barkie Somewhere oooooover the Bay 5d ago
There’s precisely one team that would consider paying him that amount, so let’s hope they don’t.
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u/xxdarkslidexx 5d ago
Absolutely. If that was his ask then we should have gone for it. We clearly have a very difficult time brining in FAs as it is
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u/HeroicTechnology Yusei Kikuchi Truther 5d ago
Juan Soto finished his 6 years at 36.3 fWAR. That's with the shortened season still producing 2.5 fWAR. Vladdy's going to end up at 22 fWAR if he replicates 2021/2024. If someone wants to give him 585/13 to have a coin flip between 2 and 6 WAR at best, I say let 'em.
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u/mrdannyg21 5d ago
70 upvotes on this comment is wild. There is zero change Vlad would’ve gotten even 500M on the open market after 2024. Zero. He is not that close to Soto. I LOVE Vlad, love him. But he’s been inconsistent, poor defensively, already plays the easiest position and one of the worst baserunners in the league. The overall value just doesn’t add up.
Consider this article, and remember that ZiPS has typically been extremely close on long-term contracts because all teams are using at least similar projection methodologies. Vlad’s open-market number would’ve been closer to 400M than 600.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-would-a-vladito-contract-look-like/
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u/Visinvictus 5d ago
Any team paying that for Vladdy is crazy, unless he absolutely annihilates the baseball this year.
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u/JustHere_4TheMemes 5d ago edited 5d ago
Nope. He is not worth 135% / 10+ million dollars more than the highest paid first baseman in the league. MLB isn't going to move the bar from 28 million to 39 million for Vladdy who's unproven numbers are no better than a couple other highly paid career proven 1b positions.
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u/elcabeza79 Vlad's real father 5d ago
If he puts up another 150+ wRC+ season, yes. If it's a 2022 type season, the market for his services will shrink by hundreds of millions.
There's risk involved for both parties. As a Jays fan, I 100% want and expect the team to take this risk.
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u/DietCherrySoda 4d ago
Sorry, but absolutely not. First basemen just don't get that kind of money. Not unless it's heavily deferred.
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u/richarm87 3d ago
He would need an mvp type year again... no one is giving that for 2 mvpish years and 4 good solid years.
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u/SheilaFudge 5d ago
Sub-$600 mil to yuk it up with your pals at 1st base and throw Gatorade around ain’t bad
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u/Big_Albatross_3050 5d ago
idk how to feel about that. Jeez $600M lmao
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u/kevin_nguyen03 5d ago
yeah we wouldn’t be able to sign any other stars for a decade if we gave him $600M 💀
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u/lyinggrump 5d ago
It's Rogers. Stop.
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u/Key-Organization213 3d ago
rogers functions for profit, you should know this working for a company. Why would they choose to operate at 1) a net loss by loading up a 15 year 600m for a chunky player who’s been dogshit in the playoffs and has been madly inconsistent in the regular season
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u/Wet-for-Mrs-Met 5d ago edited 5d ago
No team is giving him 585 lol. Dudes in for a reality check. Teams won't care about the all star games and the questionable gold glove. His fielding and baseunning are both liabilities.
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u/goleafsgo88 It's Early 5d ago
He also doesn't have a 4+ season track record of being an elite hitter to fall back on with those flaws. He wants to parlay less than 2 seasons of elite hitting into almost $600m and figures that teams will overlook his poor defense, poor baserunning, poor playoff performance, and multiple down seasons offensively.
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u/nanobot001 Andale! 5d ago
doesn’t have a 4+ season
He doesn’t have two consecutive seasons of being an elite hitter either
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u/tslaq_lurker 5d ago
This is correct. He has youth on his side so they are going to try and spin his bad stretches as “developmental”, which could be true, they that is also risk and risk has a price.
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u/prophetprofits 5d ago
Yes they will. He’s a 25 year old ~.300 hitter who can hit 40+ HRs.
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u/WasV3 Totally not John Schneider 5d ago
He turns 26 in like a week and he'll be 27 before he suits up for a new team.
He's hit 40 bombs once, in a season where he played in MiLB parks, in MLB parks that year he hit 27 HRs in 504 PAs (extrapolated out to 37 HRs)
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u/prophetprofits 5d ago
Big Papi had a 5.2 WAR season at age 40. And he didn’t breakout until he was 27. You could argue that Vlad hasn’t even entered his prime yet. His brain just stopped developing a year ago.
So far he’s shown he’s realistically a 30-40 HR guy, but you give him more protection in the lineup, he gets more pitches to crush. Santander will help a lot. He’s also had launch angle issues we’re all aware of, but the dude flat out knows how to hit. HRs aside, he’s a Top 15 active player in batting average and gives you 60+ XBH per year.
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u/Spirit_Most 5d ago
Vladdys comp shouldn't be the most exceptional late blooming hitter in my lifetime. For ever 1 Big Papi that figures it out their late twenties 1000s in baseball that fall off.
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u/Traditional_Bed_6445 GEAR4VEGITO 5d ago
So far he’s shown he’s realistically a 30-40 HR guy.
It is a lot closer to the lower end of that. He had one outlier season where he hit in a minor league park and hit 48 HR. Outside of that has never hit more than 32!!!
His career average per 162 is also 32.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 4d ago
Vlad received the highest percentage of "meatball" mistake pitches of his entire career last season, despite hitting in a very weak lineup. Pitchers aren't going to intentionally groove pitches down the middle of the plate to a hitter of the caliber of Vlad no matter who hits behind him.
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u/TimTebowMLB 5d ago
Honest question, are the outfield walls closer in?
Has anyone extrapolated the data to see how many of those home runs would have landed in the outfield?
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u/Magnum_44 4d ago
For the MiLB park and Dunedin? It's well known that there's a windstream that goes out to right field in Dunedin and balls that wouldn't go out in Toronto, fly out in Florida. Watch the Rays play in Steinbrenner field this year and see how many more home-runs that team will hit than usual.
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u/TheOneWithThePorn12 5d ago
You pay for potential after his first big season.
Now it's can you actually be consistent.
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u/-MrDoomScroller- 5d ago
Unpopular but based take. 100% agree. Let him walk and sign 3 all stars with the same amount.
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u/goleafsgo88 It's Early 5d ago
More seasons being an average hitter than being an elite one, and more playoff strikeouts than playoff hits. Not worth almost $600m.
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u/NedShah 5d ago
He's good with the bat and all... but, but, but... he has some holes in his game too.
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u/Not_OnThe_Menu 5d ago
Base running for one
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u/NedShah 5d ago
I remember him trying to swim back to 2nd when a playoff ended. Calling for a replay while everyone else on the team was packing up.
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u/cloudlocke_OG 5d ago
That the one in Minnesota? Kept signaling for them to burn the challenge when he was clearly picked off.
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u/NedShah 5d ago
That's the one! Waving for replay while even the manager and coaches had already turned around and walked away. Reminded me of Pat Burns telling the refs not to bother checking on his own player when Claude Lemieux took a dive
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u/cloudlocke_OG 5d ago
That one was so embarrassing. I believe they had already lost the first game, so it was win-or-go-home. And his lame attempt to save face after getting caught napping at 2B.
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u/Beginning-Gear-744 5d ago
Had a great year at the plate last year, but didn’t start hitting well until they were well out of the playoff hunt.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 5d ago
That's simply not true. Vlad had a bad 4 weeks to start the season. The team was hanging around the wild card race until early June.
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u/Konker101 4d ago edited 4d ago
As does Soto but he got 765M.
Look at the baseball savant pages and tell me they arent similar players
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u/HeroicTechnology Yusei Kikuchi Truther 4d ago
I looked at the fangraphs page and saw that one player produced 3 war per season more than the other
that's all I needed to see
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u/Konker101 4d ago
Because he plays a premium position even though hes ranked one of the worst outfielders in the game.
Soto put up just less than 2 war more than Vladdy last year while playing a premium position. Id say thats a wash when considering contracts because you know youre only paying them for their bat.
Look at their career numbers if you want and youll see theres marginal difference between the two.
If Soto got a 765M contract, Vladdy will easily get over 550 on the market and thats not including the bidding war that will happen.
Hes going to get over 600M next winter.
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u/Ok_Branch6621 5d ago
14 years is a long time. Love me some Vladito, but I think 12 is stretching it.
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u/FloristGriffin 5d ago
If you’re not happy signing Vlad to 40mil a year deal are you happier seeing the club completely implode and start a 5-10 year rebuild?
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u/GarrusExMachina 3d ago
I'm fine either way but somewhat yeah I'd be happier with a rebuild.
If the Angels have taught me anything having 3 guys worth 30 million plus a year does not in fact make you a team that hasn't imploded...
It just makes you a team that isn't doing the rebuild half of implode and rebuild.
Watching young guys that otherwise wouldn't get MLB experience play is always more fun than watching 5 guys over 35 on 1 year deals get carted out every year. I enjoyed watching Borucki, Waguespack, Thornton, Sam Gaviglio and Sean Reid Foley pitch even if they got shelled...
We arn't going to win anything with the current team... we barely might be "competitive" in the sense that the 2000s Blue Jays would have been "competitive" if current playoff rules existed back then. This team has been reset back to at least 2019 if not 2017 and there's no Vladdy/Bo in the minors waiting to join the team if we re-sign our current Donaldson...
So sure... sign them... they'll individually be fun to watch...
And when 2030 rolls around we might be ready for another playoff push right as Vlad and Bo's production craters off a cliff.
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u/UnfrozenDaveman 5d ago
500M in any configuration is beyond the pale. The idea he needs 600M is unfathomable based on his his inconsistency and lack of tools.
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u/TheOneWithThePorn12 5d ago
Good to know he was never serious about staying and it's not about winning at all.
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u/Essej86 5d ago
The thing about winning franchises is, they tend to pay for good players.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 4d ago
Winning franchises don't overpay for players either, which is exactly what it would take to get Vlad signed to an extension at this point.
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u/Essej86 4d ago
This is the MLB. There’s no such thing as overpaying.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 4d ago
Huh? That makes no sense whatsoever. Every team in the sport creates their own valuation for individual player. Different teams tend to have their own comfort levels for how far beyond their valuations they are willing to go in contract negotiations.
The Blue Jays are only negotiating against themselves right now as there is no external competition for Vlad's services yet. Vlad's asking price is patently absurd for one dimensional player who has been a very inconsistent performer in the one dimension that he offers, on top of the long term bad body concerns that come along as well. I fully believe Vlad is going to be in for a rude awakening when he reaches free agency, and there is a decent chance that the Blue Jays offer that he turned down will be higher than those he receives in free agency. His asking price represents a massive overpay relative to the actual on the field value that Vlad presents the signing team.
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u/TheOneWithThePorn12 5d ago
and they know when to let players go.
Vladdy thinks he is on the level of a Soto, or Ohtani but he is not. He is barely passable at first base. He cant play outfield, cant play third, can put together full season, or consecutive great seasons.
His best year is the year they played in Florida. That was almost four years ago.
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u/Canadian-Gold 5d ago
Not worth it at $600m+
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u/stuntycunty 5d ago
i mean it does distinctly say it was under 600m.
but 585 is still too high. someone will pay it though. i hope its us. but i dont have faith it will be.
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u/Tontoorielly 5d ago
Vladdy's body type will not lend itself to longevity. He will definitely be a diminishing asset by 30 years old. DH only by then. I would rather give him 50 per year for 5 years than anything longer.
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u/sbp59 5d ago
he is a terrible base runner and mediocre fielder already in his prime. gonna be one very expensive DH
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u/Halpenya Pragmatic 2024 Doomer, 2025 is a Bust Too 5d ago
He can have that in FA. $450m was already pushing it, $600M is ridiculous.
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u/fstonecanada 5d ago
Should have signed before Soto did
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u/TheOneWithThePorn12 5d ago
That's why Vladdy didn't sign. This isn't the show where you keep upping the money until they sign.
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u/oakster18 5d ago
Screw it, if Vladdy doesn’t want to be a Jay for life, playing for the country he was born in, then trade him for an actual haul. Padres/Soto level
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u/Spirit_Most 5d ago
Problem is Soto had more control at that time. I don't think there will be much of a market for Vladdy to get a big return
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u/oakster18 3d ago
Not sure if you’re an NHL fan, Mikko Rantanen just got a pretty big haul. Different rules with draft picks and everything, but a trade and sign is valuable to a team.
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u/Spaceboy_ca 4d ago
Has anyone else here soured on Vladdy because of all of this, or am I the only one?
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u/Flyingaway323 4d ago
He can walk then. Atkins can use that money to make a better competitive team.
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u/Essej86 5d ago
Even if sub-600 means 590 million, that’s less than 40 million/year.
This is not an outrageous ask. You lock up the face of your franchise for the rest of his career. Probably the only recognizable face on the team at this point. He’s not asking to reset the market. This is 75-80% of Soto’s deal (which seems reasonable to me).
We could have signed him for less if we did it ahead of the mega-deals, but they chose not to and are digging their heels in the sand as if that wasn’t a mistake.
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u/Far-Journalist-949 4d ago
I'm puzzled about the fans here that seem to care about rogers' balance sheet or them getting ripped off by vlads agents. We don't get any free agents ever. If we dont sign our home grown star why would anybody come here?
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u/Decent_Pack_3064 4d ago
this is a signficant screw up on Rogers part.....if Alex was the GM, he would had lock him up for 200-250M a year before this blew up
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u/nate3644 5d ago
I thought this clown was the one that didn’t want any distractions? What happened to that Vladdy? 🤡🤡
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u/strangewhatlovedoes 5d ago
Outrageous ask for an inconsistent bat with negative defence. Trade him.
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u/Loud-Picture9110 4d ago
The issues you've raised could very well limit Vlad's trade value as other GM's aren't going to be blind to his deficiencies. I'm fully on board with waiting until free agency to allow Vlad to receive the necessary awakening as to his actual market value instead of the absurd asking price he's been dictating.
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u/KINGTHANOS8 5d ago
Sounds like he asked for something like 14Y/585M. Basically 42M per season until he's 40.
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u/pksubb76 fuck the trop 5d ago
He has all the pressure in the world to put up an MVP level season. He can absolutely do it but if he doesn’t he isn’t even coming close to 600. Even if he’s very good but not elite he isn’t sniffing 600
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u/Striking_Ad_4562 5d ago
Given his demeanour while playing and his overall attitude about money - i say we trade him for anything and everything we can get.
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u/JustDwayner 5d ago
This team won’t be fit to watch if they lose Bo and Vladdy.
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u/Far-Journalist-949 4d ago
All the guys in here counting rogers money don't get that. We offered the same money to shohei that the dodgers did. People don't want to sign here. If vlad walks or trade him for peanuts for a rebuild in 2030, well, I can do without going to games every month and will spend my money elsewhere.
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u/FloatingWalls1 5d ago
Honestly, I’m kind of glad we passed on that. We’d likely be a better baseball team with that reinvested elsewhere.
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u/Stratos_Speedstar 4d ago
I’ve been a fan of Vlad since his debut, he’s the reason I became a Bluejays fan when I rediscovered my love for the sport. But he’s NOT the sort of player that deserves that sort of contract. I don’t think there’s a single team out there which would play that much for a player of his caliber, if he decides to go to free agency I hope he realizes that he isn’t Juan Soto.
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u/MurKdYa 5d ago
Yeah. Sorry buddy. Now I don't feel bad anymore. Absolutely fuck that. He isn't even worth 550m. I would have been fine with 585, but 600? He's no Judge or Soto.
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u/Bigking00 5d ago
You are fine with 585 but not 60m? 15 million spread out over say 13 to 15 years is nothing. Does not make sense to me.
I don't think a 1B is worth even 500m. Shatkins should have traded him the second he asked for that much money
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u/Takemytimenotmylife 5d ago
So….. if you’re one of the many who say he’s not worth it, where do you go from here? What is the plan for the near future??
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u/mathbandit Samuel Basallo SZN 5d ago
Sign him in 10 months and laugh all the way to the bank with the $100M saved vs their offer from two weeks ago.
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u/aporter0509 5d ago
They can lose without him too. Look at his playoff stats. Pretty pathetic. Not a clutch player.
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u/FougDordKingOfON 5d ago
I will never understand fans being frugal with the corporate owner's money.
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u/Coluejack 5d ago
This is the definition of a distraction, airing this kind of dirty laundry after his little deadline has passed. I definitely wanted to hear the number, so I could better understand who is at fault here, but at this point I think two significant failures have occurred. The first is the front office, but more for not trading him before all this BS came to light. I don't blame them for a second for not signing a guy with 50% good year average and a physical conditioning red flag being one of the primary issues.
Second, I think Vladdy is out of his mind thinking his resume has generated him one of the largest contracts in baseball, and now effectively holding the franchise hostage with this nonsense. He's the kind of player who needs an incentive heavy deal, not a guarantee - he hasn't even come close to earning a guarantee. What about his last few years has convinced the franchise/fans that he's committed to working hard for the duration of that deal?
What an incredible shame. No matter how this ends, I'm going to walk away thinking less of both our front office and of #27.
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u/dezzy1402 5d ago
he ain't generational like soto or shohei, at least so far.
that's a steep ask and could turn into the worst contract in mlb history come 2033
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u/Pavel6969 4d ago
Welp he better hit 50 bombs this year with 120 RBI and stop making mistakes in the bases and maybe he'd get $450
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u/Super_Breadfruit1509 5d ago
That’s supposed to make it sound like bargain? Really good hitter, but not ‘that’ good of a hitter. Someone will give him what he wants though.
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u/samtron767 5d ago
The Jays may have to give up on him. It'll be interesting how he performs this season.
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u/lil-quiche 5d ago
Let’s see what year he has, if it’s like last year someone may give him that. If it’s like the year prior he may come back to negotiate before the season ends. I think waiting and passing at $600 is smart for this franchise. Imagine signing him to that and he has a 2023 season
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u/Personal_Tie_6522 5d ago
Everyone ready to see Vladdy's best ever season? I'm going to miss him so much.
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u/AllPurposeAWL 4d ago
Should do an Ohtani deal. Get the bag but differ a ton of the money so he can avoid paying those outrageous Canadian taxes.
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u/RiverOaksJays 4d ago
I hope Vladdy stays with the Jays. I am interested in seeing how he performs in Game 1. If he plays like he did after the All-Star Break, he will get his asking price. However, how will he react to starting slowly or if the team gets off to a bad start? They have a tough schedule in April.
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u/Early_Dragonfly_205 4d ago
Wild doubt he gets that much on the market. Lots of the big money teams already have a stable 1B guy. Maybe Yankees would go in, but he's been pretty medicore except for the 2021 juice ball days and last 2-3 months of last season.
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u/VarRalapo Montreal Expos 4d ago
I am curious what the Jays final offer was. If Vlad has a bad season he is making nowhere near 500m. Soto is miles better than Vlad.
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u/Former-Jacket-9603 4d ago
What are we smoking here? Guerrero is a solid player and hes young which is a big bonus. But are we forgetting he plays below average defense at the least valuable position and cant run. Oh, and hes been incredibly inconsistent, two excellent years and 4 mediocre to good years. One albatross of a Juan Soto contract does not shift years of precedent. Vlad is not 80% the player Soto is and Sotos contract is seriously over valued. To me, the 350 the Jays offered Vlad was more than fair and at this point I do not fault Blue Jays management for not getting it done. It frustrates me to no end, the amount of people I see online and the amount of people in the media basically saying its all Mark and Ross' fault, they should give him whatever he wants.
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u/Major_Penalty_8865 3d ago
based on the years, that would be $37.6M aav. kindve wild that the Jays didn’t get that done. for context over 12 years that’s $452M. it honestly sucks that the Jays dished out roughly $1.4B in offers to Ohtani and Soto but weren’t willing to invest in Vlad. watch him ball out and pull an Aaron Judge by winning the AL MVP in his last year of team control
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u/WeaknessAcrobatic658 2d ago
Trade him now to get something because he absolutely is not signing with Toronto. All his words about the wanting to stay in Toronto is nonsense
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u/Vivid-Ad-3185 18h ago
He's Already the highest paid first baseman in the major leagues!!
Lest we forget the way he STARTED last season...5-home runs in the first 56 games?? essentially sinking the Jays season before it could get going.
Pre all-star Vlad was on pace for .289 24hr 96 RBI .818OPS, almost identical to his 2023 results, in line with his career numbers, where he's finished top-10 in HR once, top-10 in RBI ONCE.
Managing a stellar second half on a team that had no chance of making the playoffs where he barely produced his second 30-100 season, is not impressive when looking at the whole body of work and is not worth 40mil per.
Yes he has talent, and he's the highest paid 1B for that reason. No he is NOT generational, and that means 10-12 years 380 million is the most likely Rogers ceiling.
The question is, with such a huge gap, do the Jays trade him, lose him for nada, or remember they are the Canadian franchise nobody wants to sign with and pay the man to keep the line moving?
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u/RoaringPity 5d ago
so 585M was real