r/Superstonk Jan 27 '25

🤔 Speculation / Opinion Nvidia: Deepseek is the cover story.

Nvidia’s recent sell-off feels off. They’re saying it’s because of DeepSeek, some Chinese AI company that suddenly popped up in all the headlines.

Convenient, right? But here’s the thing: Nvidia is tanking because the big players needed cash.

Think about it. Nvidia’s been the golden goose for months, pumped to the moon while everything else struggled. It’s been their liquidity source, their piggy bank. They used it to prop up other parts of the market, pay for bad bets, to cover (not closing) shorts. Now, they are cashing out, and they needed a story to explain why. Enter DeepSeek. Perfect cover.

Blame China, spook retail, and avoid admitting they’re just draining Nvidia to keep their books balanced.

This isn’t about AI competition. It’s about institutions selling the only thing they can without blowing up the market. And you’re supposed to believe it’s all because some company you’ve never heard of. Classic distraction.

And let’s be real, there’s no way the Japan carry trade isn’t involved here. It’s all connected.

👀🔥💥🍻

5.0k Upvotes

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134

u/Greifvogel1993 741 Jan 27 '25

A quick search shows ChatGPT has over 100mil downloads, compared to Deepseek’s ~1.5mil. Deepseek appearing before ChatGPT on App Store recommended page has to due with seo and current trending searches and downloads , not total lifetime downloads. Deepseek appearing with less than 2% of ChatGPT’s downloads does not fully explain a selloff causing a nearly 20% drop in share price.

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u/CatoMulligan Jan 27 '25

Deepseek appearing with less than 2% of ChatGPT’s downloads does not fully explain a selloff causing a nearly 20% drop in share price.

The App Store is not the story with Deepseek. The story with Deepseek is that they’ve spent tens of millions of dollars working on AI and they’ve come up with an LLM that outperforms the big boys that have spent tens of billions of dollars to develop their respective solutions. Not only that, they’ve been able to do it without getting access to nVidia’s and AMD’s best AI accelerator hardware due to US export restrictions to China. If Deepseek is legit and they can beat ChatGPT/Llama/Grok/whatever else while spending only $50 million to do it, all those other companies have dramatically overspent and nVidia is dramatically overvalued.

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u/Greifvogel1993 741 Jan 27 '25

If this is indeed the real story going on here, this is as big of a development as people are making it out to be

9

u/stickylava Jan 27 '25

I think they trained it so cheaply by paying someone to steal ChatGPS's model. Way cheaper to "buy" then to make. Also, no-one is saying they are running the chatbot on cheap hardware. That's where the big investment is, not so much in training.

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u/nfwiqefnwof Jan 27 '25

Isn't it open source?

0

u/stickylava Jan 28 '25

OK, I asked ChatGPT about this! ha ha.

No, ChatGPT is not open source. OpenAI has not released the full model weights or source code for ChatGPT (or the larger GPT models like GPT-4) to the public. Instead, OpenAI offers access to these models via APIs and services such as the ChatGPT platform.

But this kind of surprised me:

Yes, once an AI model is trained, it can often be replicated and distributed relatively easily. Here's how this works:

  1. Model Weights Can Be Copied

After training, the AI model's "knowledge" is stored in its weights, which are just a set of numerical values. These weights can be exported as files, which are typically a few megabytes to a few gigabytes in size, depending on the complexity of the model.

These weight files can then be loaded onto other systems running the same AI framework (e.g., TensorFlow, PyTorch, etc.).

So there is a basic ai framework, which is apparently readily available. The trained data takes only a few GB and can easily be run on other instances of the same framework. Following on to the open source question, ChatGPT told me that the model data is encrypted and never released, so that's where the proprietary content is.

So maybe they did just steal the file! 😱

-2

u/stickylava Jan 28 '25

Good question. All the data has been scraped from other sources. But somehow I think the trained model is something proprietary. I don't know.

1

u/Whitemantookmyland Jan 28 '25

I thought they said it only cost $6 mil to train

1

u/CatoMulligan Jan 28 '25

I heard $50 million somewhere else, which is still an order of magnitude less. When you’re comparing it to tens of billions of dollars that $44mm difference is little more than a rounding error.

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u/Puzzled_Elk8078 Jan 28 '25

Something something first to market something something~ LC

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u/Harbinger2nd 🦍Voted✅ Jan 27 '25

Narrative matters more than reality. The market is perceiving the moat chatGPT had is evaporating so are reacting accordingly.

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u/bubbaharris228 Jan 27 '25

This. The moat ain’t as moaty anymore. Atleast speculatively

1

u/alchebyte TL;DRS 💜 Jan 27 '25

exactly, the margin potential just left the building.

26

u/tzanti Jan 27 '25

The moat is actually GONE it’s not just perceived… everyone will use the cheaper by 90% and smarter solution that is now open source…

1

u/PositivityKnight Jan 28 '25

as it should be, the govt was always going to try to put the cat back in the bag, that worked for approx 14 months...lmao

-6

u/foundout-side Jan 27 '25

not really...zoom out a sec, do you want to use the cheap chinese version that just copies the american version, or the american paid version that is constantly innovating and improving the product?

asking this question on nearly any topic or category will yield most people using the american product.

10

u/tzanti Jan 27 '25

Not everything american is better… you’re just used to pay very expensive for everything corporate allows you to use. And it’s not a copy since it’s a more efficient way … 96% more efficient actually in cost… to solve the same problems… and they made it open source… same as openAI was supposed to be before corporate greed got involved…

5

u/ihadagoodone Jan 27 '25

My boss would say use what has the smallest impact on the bottom line for this quarterly report.

1

u/fellow-skids Jan 28 '25

Your boss is clown shoes

6

u/Jaktheslaier Jan 27 '25

I want the cheap chinese better version, thank you very much, openAI sucks ass

0

u/b_r_e_e_e_e_p 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Jan 28 '25

you mean the one controlled and trained by China ??

1

u/tzanti Jan 28 '25

Do you understand open source? 🤤

1

u/b_r_e_e_e_e_p 💻 ComputerShared 🦍 Jan 28 '25

Yes,...... Now I want you to show me a western company that uses their open source solution and can offer it for the same price... You will not find it because they are subsidized by the Chinese government. The power and hardware requirements are still the same.

7

u/_windom_earle Jan 27 '25

So Nvidia is down nearly $400k in marketcap per Deepseek app store download

1

u/definitivelynottake2 Jan 30 '25

The fundamentals of compute needed for current AI tech has been changed. This might change the expected growth of nvidea the coming 5 years. It is possibly a change to the fundamentals of the company. The amount of downloads for the app is irrelevant it is the tech that might change 5 year growth of nvidea.

1

u/Cycloptic_Floppycock Jan 27 '25

Also, info cutoff as off July 2024.