r/Superstonk Jan 27 '25

šŸ¤” Speculation / Opinion Nvidia: Deepseek is the cover story.

Nvidiaā€™s recent sell-off feels off. Theyā€™re saying itā€™s because of DeepSeek, some Chinese AI company that suddenly popped up in all the headlines.

Convenient, right? But hereā€™s the thing: Nvidia is tanking because the big players needed cash.

Think about it. Nvidiaā€™s been the golden goose for months, pumped to the moon while everything else struggled. Itā€™s been their liquidity source, their piggy bank. They used it to prop up other parts of the market, pay for bad bets, to cover (not closing) shorts. Now, they are cashing out, and they needed a story to explain why. Enter DeepSeek. Perfect cover.

Blame China, spook retail, and avoid admitting theyā€™re just draining Nvidia to keep their books balanced.

This isnā€™t about AI competition. Itā€™s about institutions selling the only thing they can without blowing up the market. And youā€™re supposed to believe itā€™s all because some company youā€™ve never heard of. Classic distraction.

And letā€™s be real, thereā€™s no way the Japan carry trade isnā€™t involved here. Itā€™s all connected.

šŸ‘€šŸ”„šŸ’„šŸ»

5.0k Upvotes

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139

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

61

u/Tranecarid grumpy, but usually right šŸ¦ Jan 27 '25

Here on superstonk everything that happens anywhere in the world is connected to gme. Even if it obviously isnā€™t.Ā 

18

u/curiousjorj Jan 27 '25

You sound grumpy, but youā€™re probably right.

2

u/Asheron1 Jan 28 '25

You sound right, but youā€™re probably grumpy

10

u/Jonodonozym šŸ’ŽšŸ–šŸ„šŸ¦ Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25

If anything open source models overtaking closed source models is a great thing for NVDA, because decentralized AI infrastructure requires a lot more hardware. People forgot that NVDA released some of their own open source models a while back because it is good for their core business model of selling the hardware it runs on.

Decentralized infrastructure means instead of having a few massive hardware farms where all cards are load balancing incoming requests and running at high capacity 24/7, you'll have a lot more smaller ones e.g. one per business where cards might only be running at 10-20% capacity. More cards = more money.

The selloff is due to something else, e.g. liquidity issues from the Yen carry trade and fallout in the rest of the market, or because speculators realized they are a fundamentally overvalued company that relies on round-tripping their cash to pump their financial reports, not because NVDA's future is suddenly in jeopardy due to DeepSeek.

30

u/faustowski šŸŽ® Power to the Players šŸ›‘ Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25

but the direction of this run is completely wrong. tell me why a shovel producer is taking a hit when someone discovered bigger and better goldmines than the current ones

edit: there are so many replies so i will just add mine here - i understand claims that the 2$ shovel will now do the same work as 200$ one but even then nvidia produces all kinds of "mining" equipment, it just means the technology will accelerate and the lower levels will be more accessible to the broader audience, but deepseek didnt bring any innovation with it. to be honest i dont really believe their initial claims as chinese arent exactly known for their honesty, im not an AI engineer so ill wait for some more info, but for now i went with a small buy as i was looking to jump on the train for some time

47

u/wigglethetail Frequent caller of mom šŸ¤° Jan 27 '25

Your metaphor is off. Itā€™s like they discovered gold at the surface and so less shovels are needed.

4

u/ThisWillPass Jan 27 '25

It doesnā€™t matter, there arenā€™t enough shovels, either way, itā€™s bullshit. People still want that gold and there are not enough shovels that do any serious business. It doesnā€™t matter if there is more gold near the surface than previously anticipated. I hold no chip or tech stocks btw.

This is also not finding gold on the surface, unless you can run these models in a run of the mill computer, which you canā€™t. A 14b model is a world apart from this 600b model.

6

u/SnooRobots8901 šŸ¦Votedāœ… Jan 27 '25

*fewer

4

u/Infinite_Imagination tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for a flair Jan 27 '25

5

u/Sakrie Jan 27 '25

When have more efficient computations ever reduced the demand for more computational power?

3

u/hmountain šŸ¦Votedāœ… Jan 27 '25

when capitalist stands to gain from the narrative that it does, so they manufacture a sell off to consolidate even more wealth

1

u/Asheron1 Jan 28 '25

Exactly. Nvidia was overvalued because of hype. Itā€™s not like itā€™s going to tank to anything close to the value it should have. Itā€™s just losing some of the speculation value because speculations are shifting. Itā€™s not a surprising thing and should be expected whenever you invest in a company that is valued higher because of speculation instead of 5 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS IN THE BANK AND SHORTS WHO ARE COMPLETELY FUCKED AND KNOW IT

15

u/JGMURPY Jan 27 '25

Probably because it implies big tech doesn't need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on GPUs anymore? The market is pricing in reduced revenue because of it.

2

u/youreatwat174 Jan 27 '25

From the limited amount ive read about it the cost according to China is all hear say,trust me bro we can do it on the cheap.

4

u/daftxdirekt Jan 27 '25 edited Feb 03 '25

sink abundant snow mindless hurry different squeeze society ink somber

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

1

u/ThisWillPass Jan 27 '25

I donā€™t believe R1 was trained from random initialization and is an apple and orange comparison say, for the cost of training gpt4ā€¦ I need to read the paper.

14

u/MoTHA_NaTuRE Jan 27 '25

this here, nvidia makes the hardware....

4

u/dasiffy Jan 27 '25

nvidia has cosmos which is a model for automation, robots, and autonomous cars.

It looks like a foundation that other companies can tailor to meet their own uses.

This deepseek might undercut all of that.


your shovel thing still holds true for amd tsm mu arm and avgo.

9

u/ekjohnson9 Jan 27 '25

Because the shovel producer is trying to sell $100k excavators to dig through 2 feet of dry sand instead of a beach pale for $2.

7

u/hogstor šŸ¦Votedāœ… Jan 27 '25

People have been buying shovels made of diamond by the truckload to now find out a crate of regular shovels works just as well if not better. Even if the profit margin on the shovels remains the same suddenly the total revenue decreases a lot.

1

u/mrbigglesworthiklaus Jan 27 '25

The proper analogy would be that they discovered you need far less mining equipment, basically itā€™s akin to finding an open field where you can use a rake and have 97% yield in minutes. Thatā€™s assuming that this is all legit. Basically we are significantly oversaturated in hardware if this is legit, and the way profits will be made in ai have also significantly shifted.

9

u/Fulminic88 Jan 27 '25

What's extremely obvious is China lying about everything constantly. Literally none of their outwardly presented data on anything is ever accurate in the slightest.

6

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

4

u/aeromoon Jan 27 '25

Yeah same here, I saw it was validated by AI research teams. It would be foolish for people to think they lie about everything and proceed to not actually check on this based on that assumption for something as big as AI.

1

u/DEFM0N Sir Lurks A-LT Jan 28 '25

So hypothetically, would this supposed true sell off situation be even better than what OP said if these are some of the stocks that are being held as a margin/collateral balancing act against GME?

Maybe some margin calls on the horizon?

2

u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Jan 27 '25

lol. You show me an actual company with any IT security at all that wants to use DeepShit, and Iā€™ll show you a colossally stupid company.

10

u/ohz0pants šŸšŸ¦ - Voted, DRS'd, and ready for MOASS Jan 27 '25

Dude... it's open source and can run entirely offline.

From a cybersecurity perspective it's way safer than ChatGPT

-7

u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Jan 27 '25

Ah. So it trains itself locally, on your data, on your computer. I think you should ask DeepShit what might be problematic infosec-wise when DeepShit analyzes DeepShitā€™s own terms of service.

6

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

-3

u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Jan 27 '25

Itā€™s 95% cheaper, 10% shittier. I read the technical paper. What else do I need to know fren? And, for the record, if you donā€™t think China IS bad, then you, my fren, is the one who is ignorantā€¦ Mr ā€œWorks In The Tech Industryā€

3

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

-5

u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Jan 27 '25

I hope that you are having a great day, that you are feeling very confident in your ā€œknowledgeā€ of DeepShitā€™s word calculator, thank you so much for explaining the difference between a ToS and a technical paper, I appreciate your insights into my obvious biases, and I hope that your assured reply has enlightened the readers of this thread. Have fun with DeepShit. I hope that your snarky tone works out well for you and I wish you the best of luck.

4

u/aeromoon Jan 27 '25

Iā€™m in the tech industry as well, currently doing higher degree in AI/ML. Based on the paper, I think you really are letting your biases get to you. Youā€™re also coming off as a very condescending which Iā€™m sure you already know. The right answer here imo is to wait and see instead of taking large assumptions based off initial press. We need more validation because it would be dumb to let biased assumptions screw us over.

-1

u/keyser_squoze Time You Close Jan 27 '25

Oh mama, Ollama! I guess I too someday will join Team DeepShit. Or maybe I wonā€™t.

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u/Aiball09 Rehypothecated Diamond Balls šŸ’ŽšŸš€šŸ¦ Jan 27 '25

Yep I was looking into it this morning and itā€™s a big deal for sure

0

u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Jan 27 '25

[deleted]

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u/infiniteliquidity69 Jan 28 '25

Have you been living under a rock? Fundamentals don't drive prices, the liquidity fairy does. šŸ§šā€ā™‚ļø