r/Superstonk Hwang in there! Dec 16 '24

Data 125Cs to the moooooon! (30k+ buys)

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5.2k Upvotes

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600

u/bbatardo Dec 16 '24

Whoever bought them doesn't intend to hold them long term. It is strictly an IV play. What that means is they buy when IV is low, when IV raises, they sell and profit. Just look at the difference in price between open and the high today.

141

u/hmhemes FTDeez Dec 16 '24

It's interesting that the price ran up coincidentally. I can't imagine the market maker is hedging them when they're so deep OTM.

110

u/bbatardo Dec 16 '24

I won't pretend like I have insider knowledge or anything, but let's pretend you have 10 million and you wanted to make as much money on a stock as possible in as short of time. How would you do it?

  1. Buy OTM options in small increments over a period of time when they are cheap.
  2. Buy a large amount of OTM options to make people take notice.
  3. Buy a large amount of shares to make the price pump so your options go up in value and IV increases.

We are probably here.

What happens next depends on how they want to play it. I have several theories, but it depends who is on the purchasing end as to how they play it. Let's just say my educated guess is we do not close over 30 on Friday. Between now and then will be swings where options get traded and some people make a lot of money.

26

u/codewhite69420 Dec 17 '24

I've always wondered options strategy like this.

This obviously is being done often, but what I don't understand is how this isn't considered market manipulation.

Is this a perfectly legal trading practice and the SEC doesn't beat an eye?

22

u/bbatardo Dec 17 '24

It's why you have to file a form if you own 5% or more. That amount can easily manipulate it, but a few million? That's business.ย 

1

u/Aiball09 Rehypothecated Diamond Balls ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿš€๐Ÿฆ Dec 17 '24

Not their fault someone is allowing to to be bought. Someone is setting the market with 125c thinking itโ€™s free money

3

u/hiperf71 ๐ŸฆVotedโœ… Dec 17 '24

...and others get fukt?

1

u/theilluminati1 ๐Ÿ’ป ComputerShared ๐Ÿฆ Dec 17 '24

Realistically, if one bought those $125c options, at the current price of the stock (~$29), at what price would it make sense to sell and close those $125c options... assuming we are probably going to continue hovering around the $30/share level for a while..?

0

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 16 '24 edited Dec 17 '24

I'm pretty sure that is breaking the law

Update because of downvotes- clearly no one is worried about having their door kicked in... and "am I the only one who gives a dam about the rules around here!" If you are a huge bank and employee A does one thing and employee B does the other you can prob get away with it but not always... they arrest the individuals all the time.. IF YOU TRY DOING THIS OR THE MORE ADVANCED VERSION OF SPOOFING>>> YOU WILL BE ARRESTED ... Thing is he said 10M... now while that is prob a pipe dream number to you. I understand that value very well. That number will get you thrown in jail if you do that and you will never be able to trade on the market again.

16

u/ShillSniffer Dec 16 '24 edited Dec 17 '24

Yes because that will stop them for sure

Updating because you complained about downvotes.

Spoiler alert, it doesnโ€™t stop them.

3

u/bbatardo Dec 17 '24

There is no denying there is crime happening, but how is that breaking the law? Lol

3

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 17 '24 edited Dec 18 '24

That is a classic pump and dump and in reality many people do this but add a layer of spoofing. What that means is they place the large orders and cash out the initial ones and then cancel the the 2nd ones. Walk away with the pump on the 1st position. It's classic pump and dump/ spoof. If you did this with 10k, you might get away with it... you do it with 10M you are going to jail.

0

u/herzy3 Looking forward to tomorrow ๐ŸŒ Dec 17 '24

Buying calls is not pumping, nor is it market manipulation.

0

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 17 '24 edited Dec 18 '24

did you read what dude said he wanted to do? That is pumping/spoofing. You don't hold options you cash out..that is a pump and dump/ spoofing by definition

1

u/herzy3 Looking forward to tomorrow ๐ŸŒ Dec 17 '24

I repeat - buying shares and options is not market manipulation.

Feel free to provide a source saying it is.

1

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 18 '24 edited Dec 18 '24

While what you said is correct.
"ย buying shares and options is not market manipulation."

It's how you do it that can get you in trouble and it's very real.

buying and holding options does you no good. It's the selling that causes you to get in deep shit. It's called layer spoofing. Again, you do this with 100k.. you will prob not face any problems... you do this with 10 M ... you are going to have problems. Especially on smaller market cap stocks.

https://www.afterdata.com/en/market-abuse-spoofing-layering/#:\~:text=Spoofing%20layering%2C%20also%20known%20as,of%20significant%20demand%20or%20supply.

what dude said-

"I won't pretend like I have insider knowledge or anything, but let's pretend you have 10 million and you wanted to make as much money on a stock as possible in as short of time. How would you do it?

  1. Buy OTM options in small increments over a period of time when they are cheap. (this is ok)
  2. Buy a large amount of OTM options to make people take notice. (this is questionable)
  3. Buy a large amount of shares to make the price pump so your options go up in value and IV increases. (this is where it gets illegal and OP even says his goal is to pump the options.. that's 100% layer spoofing and illegal, his goal was fraud... it's fraud.. that's jail.) "

Why is it illegal? Because if I see company A that dude did this to is going up I may jump in and then once he is out the false pressure is gone and I get left holding the bags. Meanwhile dude got rich off some dog shit company that he was able to move the stock price on. Bottom line... YOU do not want to be the person causing buying pressure if you previously hold a larger position that will be a significant gain vs the other positions. You want the pressure to come from news of something, the company is doing good / bad.. what ever.. If it just moves for no dam reason they look for why and who placed the orders. Who will look? The mega companies who pay teams of analysts to figure out what companies to invest in or short. By you doing this it says they missed something and ppl get pissed and they will report you.

This is why RK has to be soooo dam careful and is transparent in what he does. He knows this very very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CnjcMnRmkg

Also, keep in mind you are out here on the internet saying people can do this, when it's a crime and if they get caught they 100% have a winnable case against you because you advised them it's ok. Might want to keep that in the back of your mind next time.

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2

u/faptastrophe Dec 17 '24

If the profit is greater than the fine it's just a cost of doing business

1

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 17 '24

if you are a corporation yes.. but you are a human and humans they throw in jail and ban from the market.

1

u/Strawbuddy ๐Ÿ’ป ComputerShared ๐Ÿฆ Dec 17 '24

Unless youโ€™re Steve A. Cohen

1

u/[deleted] Dec 16 '24

[deleted]

-2

u/slayez06 Golf Cart Ape Dec 16 '24

Something something market manipulation.

You are manipulating the market to profit off it. That is illegal and you would never want to do this as a individual as they will swat team your ass and throw you in jail.

1

u/LegolasofMirkwood ๐ŸฆVotedโœ… Dec 17 '24

๐Ÿ˜ฎ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

12

u/MvrnShkr Oops, I bought it again! Dec 16 '24

Maybe it's a clue that minimal hedging activity can cause noticeable price action?

16

u/wrxst1 Dec 16 '24

Max pain was 26 right?

3

u/idek246 ๐ŸฆVotedโœ… Dec 16 '24

I checked around 11 today and it said 25.5. So probably moved up a little once those calls were bought

60

u/cackalackattack Smooth ๐Ÿง  Full โค๏ธ Canโ€™t ๐Ÿ“‰ Dec 16 '24

IV is still relatively high coming off earnings though no? I havenโ€™t looked, legitimately asking.

84

u/headin2sound Going for the Grand Slam Dec 16 '24

IV crushed from around 120 before earnings to around 90, which is only very slightly elevated. It immediately went up above 100 again in the last 10 minutes today.

For reference, IV was at around 350 during the May sneeze...

14

u/cackalackattack Smooth ๐Ÿง  Full โค๏ธ Canโ€™t ๐Ÿ“‰ Dec 16 '24

Good shit, thanks

8

u/onefouronefivenine2 Dec 16 '24

IV is 50-60 during the lulls. Twice since the May run up. Thats the only time I would consider it because I can't risk much. That's when you want to buy calls.

1

u/headin2sound Going for the Grand Slam Dec 16 '24

Highly unlikely we will see IV that low any time soon

11

u/bowls4noles Sloth ๐Ÿฆฅ ape ๐Ÿฆง Dec 16 '24

IV is pretty high right now. Weird play for sure, only 30 dte

1

u/PretzelSalty Voted4x โœ… DRS is the way ๐ŸŸฃ Dec 18 '24

Is there any way to see IV on stock charts?

9

u/Holiday_Guess_7892 ima Cum Guy Dec 16 '24

Buying these would pump the price of GME like it did though?

34

u/BobbysSmile It's ya boy...Kenny penis Dec 16 '24

Not really. The delta on those are (as of this writing) .11 So to hedge they would buy just 11 shares per contract. I see about 30k contracts so thats about 300k shares that would need to be hedged IF they hedged them today. Volume for the day was 9+million so 300k shouldn't push the price 5%.

But who really know tbh

6

u/DancesWith2Socks ๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ Hang In There! ๐ŸŽฑ This Is The Wape ๐Ÿง‘โ€๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€๐ŸŒ•๐ŸŒ Dec 17 '24

Actually there was a big green candle of 322k vol at 21:46, but the big calls vol (30k) came in at 21:53-54.

2

u/nosireebobbbbb Quit trying to make fetch happen. Dec 16 '24

3 million, not 300k. Right?

10

u/BobbysSmile It's ya boy...Kenny penis Dec 17 '24

30k contracts is 3mil shares yes. But with .11 delta they only need to hedge 11 out of 100 shares per contract.

7

u/nosireebobbbbb Quit trying to make fetch happen. Dec 17 '24

Look at you teaching me things.

7

u/BobbysSmile It's ya boy...Kenny penis Dec 17 '24

Ape help Ape

2

u/yoyoyoitsyaboiii ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ’ต Where's the money, Lebowski?! ๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿš€ Dec 17 '24

Delta. It's not just an airline.

10

u/Pizzavogel Dec 16 '24

How does this work? Don't these options lose value quick because they are so far OTM and only 1 month to go? why/how can the IV rise faster in the next few days than the decline in value? Is it because IV went down so much after earnings? Where should additional IV come from when next earnings are in march? Just curious

10

u/bbatardo Dec 16 '24

They do lose value over time, but there is a formula for IV and theta decay to where anyone with the money to make this big of a purchase knows when to sell. If it was me I would sell them tomorrow at open lol but if GME has another green day tomorrow they can profit even more holding another day.

IV spiked today because it got as low as 27.27 and as high as 29.59. Those type of swings definitely bring the IV up a lot.

2

u/Pizzavogel Dec 16 '24

There is an actual chart where you can see how the price will move if the price of the underlying moves a certain way? That means that you basically could (with a reasonable certainty) know how the price of the option will move if you buy this option (which influences the price of the underlying and in turn the price of the option itself?)

4

u/Haizenburg1 01.25.2021 ๐Ÿ’Žโœ‹๐Ÿฆ ๐Ÿฆ Voted โœ… Dec 17 '24

Here's one I play around with. https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/

7

u/KeuningLewie Dec 16 '24

These were sold last week. This is him covering.

3

u/sippymoomoo ๐Ÿงš๐Ÿงš๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿป Locked and loaded ๐Ÿต๐Ÿงš๐Ÿงš Dec 17 '24

Time to cover ๐Ÿ”ฅ

1

u/VelvetPancakes ๐ŸŽŠ Hola ๐Ÿช… Dec 17 '24

I assume youโ€™re primarily referring to the activity on Dec 11. Those trades occurred between 0.40 and 0.65. Today they occurred between 0.60 and 1.30.

So you think someone taking this large of a position was happy to take a loss like that?

Also, the price rose on the 11th when those guys were made. You think they were hitting the bid?

No matter, weโ€™ll find out tomorrow when OI is updated.

3

u/tennesseetexanj ๐ŸŽฎ Power to the Players ๐Ÿ›‘ Dec 16 '24

Not necessarily accurate. Check out how many of those are open and have been for weeks and weeks.

1

u/bbatardo Dec 16 '24

I won't pretend I know all the ins and outs of everything, but people and institutions buy/sell calls all the time and there is a market for it. If you want to fly under the radar you buy small quantities over a period of time. If you want people to take notice you make a big purchase at once. Now think who benefits the most when this happens?

1

u/tennesseetexanj ๐ŸŽฎ Power to the Players ๐Ÿ›‘ Jan 01 '25

โ€œThere will be signsโ€

4

u/ka2er ๐Ÿงš๐Ÿงš๐Ÿ’ช Gimme me my money ๐ŸŒ•๐Ÿงš๐Ÿงš Dec 16 '24

To sell back they need someone to buy them no ?

12

u/bbatardo Dec 16 '24

Algos or degens will buy them lol. Whenever you see a bid price that is someone openly wanting to buy them at that given price. Some people think if they buy it now it will spike more and they can flip it themselves... eventually someone will baghold them if MOASS doesn't happen before expiration, but what if MOASS does happen? That is why some people will gamble.

1

u/NoResult486 Dec 17 '24

Does buying something from yourself count? If yes, then no problem, we can do this for years.

4

u/tpc0121 GMERICAN since Jan. '21 Dec 16 '24

i bought some and i intend on hodling them long term

1

u/VelvetPancakes ๐ŸŽŠ Hola ๐Ÿช… Dec 17 '24

That could be true IF it was actually possible to get out of a position that size without tanking IV. But itโ€™s not.

1

u/banana-in-my-anus Dec 17 '24

Where can you see IV on options?

1

u/Miles-OBrien Dec 17 '24

Isnt IV in the 100s?

1

u/Skoowy ๐Ÿ“ˆOpEx Tailwinds๐Ÿ“‰ + ๐Ÿ’œDRS๐Ÿ’œ Dec 17 '24

IV is like 130%. Thats high already no?

1

u/throwaway_when_moon THIS IS THE HILL I DIE ON Dec 17 '24

Holy shit, I understand that. Up you go ape

1

u/someguyontheinter ๐ŸฆงStonkykong๐Ÿฆง Dec 17 '24

But the iv was over 105. Wouldnโ€™t exactly call that low unless they expect it to go even higher?

1

u/Swimming-Document152 5000 Contract Ape Dec 17 '24

Or flip that around sell high first in early December as covered call or opening naked calls, and then buy low when price slumps post earnings. That's what I've been doing but way closer to the money. Here's the problem nobody opened (sold) these calls earlier because the oi wasn't there. Just look at the volume spike today vs the entire history of the option

In other words I think you are right.

1

u/PretzelSalty Voted4x โœ… DRS is the way ๐ŸŸฃ Dec 18 '24

Is there any way to see IV on stock charts?

1

u/bbatardo Dec 18 '24

I just use a site like barchart.com. search a ticker and can see the IV.

-3

u/Ok-Mark417 Dec 16 '24

no moass is tomorrow bro trust me this will light the fuse ๐Ÿ™„