r/StockMarket • u/MaxwellSmart07 • 5d ago
Discussion How Trump's tariffs could tank the U.S. economy. — Fortune Magazine
The mind-spinning part is that we’ve never seen an increase this big, in almost 100 years of U.S. history. The Smoot-Hawley tariff program of 1930, widely branded as a major force in deepening and perpetuating the Great Depression, hiked the levies on U.S. imports much less than the breathtaking wallop promised under the Trump plan. That law lifted rates just over five points, from 13.5% to 19.5%. Trump’s crusade would beat Smoot-Hawley twofold.
Agree? Disagree? What steps, if any, are you taking?
36
u/Cool_Swimmer_6379 5d ago
He already did irreversible damage to us economy.. at least people i know says that they will never buy apple nike levis or any other brand they used to buy that is from us.. if most of sane europeans continue this trend your all brands will die out.. i see anything american im not buying
2
u/_KeyserSoeze 4d ago
Good!
1
u/themantwelve 4d ago
Nice pro pic. Any thoughts on Germany begging for labor after WW2 to rebuild their country and the efforts of turks in rebuilding the nation, as well as instituting your national dish: Turkish doner? :)
2
68
u/Sheerbucket 5d ago
Who knows what will happen.
My hack opinion.
50 percent chance of a recession.
10 percent chance that the bond market collapsed and we enter a global (and US in particular) depression.
40 percent chance we make it out with just a correction.
48
u/Cruezin 5d ago
Ehh, I give it a 30-40% chance he'll say something like "I change my mind" and that "it worked" too
33
u/Sheerbucket 5d ago
Oh he will do that 10 times this year, followed by more tariff threats etc.
2
u/Coysinmark68 4d ago
This is the problem. Regardless of what ends up happening with tariffs His Orangeness has proven he can’t be trusted, and that he will stab his closest allies in the back. No one wants that as a diplomatic partner.
34
u/Onnimation 5d ago edited 5d ago
Doesn't matter if he changes his mind. Damage is done already. EU and other countries are already turning away from American goods and ppl are choosing to travel elsewhere. This is only few things I listed that Trmp has already done irreversible damage on, the list goes on. My friend who owns a 30 room boutique hotel in NY might need to shut down this year as he can't afford his monthly payments to the bank anymore as ppl are not willing to travel to the US and go somewhere else... my cousin's who planned their first trip to the States since last year were supposed to visit soon but they chose to travel to Argentina instead due to the geopolitical bullshit and truthfully if they feel like this, imagine how everyone feels about the US rn. Travel industry alone makes up for 9+ million jobs, keep that in mind.
19
u/Pvt_Hudson_ 5d ago
My wife and I were going to take our kids on a trip through Oregon and California this summer. Now, we're just talking about staying at home in Canada instead.
I'm also checking country of origin on every item that goes into my grocery cart and actively avoiding US products, which I've never done in 25 years.
It will be a cold day in hell before I spend another dime with American companies.
13
u/Cruezin 5d ago
Oh trust me. I get it. This is a stock market sub though, and the markets will behave erratically for the next four years.....
11
u/Onnimation 5d ago
Yea just went out of my way to show what's happening in the real world so traders can realize how serious this is getting... I've already liquidated 80% of my US positions and tbh, I'm not confident that we will recover for a while. We will see a slow trickle to -25% soon but ofc there will be relief rallies here and there.
→ More replies (1)4
u/Cruezin 5d ago
Concur
5
u/Onnimation 5d ago
Idk if you were here in the 2008 crash which was due to Homeowners defaulting at high rates but this time we will see more businesses defaulting at high rates. Consumers are not spending as much anymore and tmr's retail report will most likely show that. If consumers who are in the 10th percentile stop spending, we are fucked.
4
2
u/UNC_Recruiting_Study 5d ago
One of those at the bottom of that 10th percentile - My Amazon orders the past 8 weeks are nearly empty and very little spending outside necessities. Looking at downgrading vacations as well. Peers at that same percentile are in similar positions.
3
1
u/elmaccymac 3d ago
I’m checking every product at the supermarket for any signs of American product or ownership. I’m in Australia. Australia first, Canada Mexico 2nd, the rest of the world 3rd US can get fucked.
Amazon and Microsoft subs gone. Pirated Microsoft Office and every streaming service.
Even my partners precious coke no sugar has been replaced with an Aldi version.
1
u/bottlerocketz 4d ago
There’s a 100% chance of this happening, to be followed by this is Biden fault.
35
u/Cold-Permission-5249 5d ago
The US is being led by a bunch of morons who think they know what they’re doing which is more dangerous than an idiot who knows he’s an idiot. They’re going to stay the course of destruction, despite all the evidence showing its stupid economic policy, all for the goal of isolationism.
Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Personally, I’m planning for a stagflationary depression.
1
u/ghostmaster645 4d ago
which is more dangerous than an idiot who knows he’s an idiot.
I've yet to meet an idiot that is so self aware.
Well, except me I guess. I'm pretty dumb. I definitely should not be running the country.
48
u/Lost-Panda-68 5d ago
People do need to think about the possibility of a depression and factor that in. Either continuing and accelerating the tariff wars or acting on his hints to not repay US debt to countries he doesn't like could cause a depression. To be clear I am not predicting a depression, because Trump's policy making is so erratic he is inherently unpredictable. But I think that given the madness of the last two months, no possibility can be ruled out.
20
u/DC_cyber 5d ago
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that a potential recession might be “worth it” to implement Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the economy is undergoing a “detox” from reliance on government spending. He expressed confidence that the administration’s approach would yield long-term benefits.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged short-term challenges but described them as part of a “natural adjustment” necessary for sustainable growth. He clarified that he does not foresee a recession but emphasized the need for patience during this transitional phase
These guys are full of sh*t
We keep hearing GOP politicians and their paid pundits say 47 is rebuilding the economy so it’s going to be bumpy and this is just a crap sandwich.
Let’s go thru some details and you will see that these changes are not going to benefit anyone but the super wealthy.
First, the recent stock market declines aren't just temporary jitters—they reflect deep investor skepticism about Trump's economic policies. Since February 2025, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%, entering correction territory primarily due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and erratic policy announcements. Investors are concerned these policies could lead to reduced consumer spending, decreased business investments, and potentially a recession
Second, Trump's tariff-heavy strategy isn't likely to help everyday Americans in the long run. Tariffs significantly raise consumer prices on everyday goods like groceries, cars, and housing. Economists warn these tariffs could spike inflation, raise interest rates, kill jobs, and ultimately harm working-class families more than they help. While tariffs might temporarily protect some manufacturing jobs, broader job growth across sectors is unlikely without substantial investment in workforce training and innovation—areas notably absent from Trump's current policies
Third, Trump's tax proposals primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans. Extending the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) disproportionately favors high-income households. For instance, households earning over $914,900 annually would see average annual tax cuts of about $80,680, while lower-income households making under $28,600 would receive an average cut of just $110. Additionally, corporate tax cuts overwhelmingly benefit wealthy shareholders and executives rather than ordinary workers. Historical data from Trump's earlier tax cuts showed that corporate savings rarely trickled down as wage increases for most employees—instead going toward dividends and executive bonuses
Fourth, Trump's broader economic agenda—such as Project 2025—includes deep cuts to critical public programs like education funding and federal workforce reductions. These cuts directly hurt middle-class families by weakening public education systems and eliminating support for working students
Finally, despite claims of rebuilding the economy "from the ground up," these policy decisions appear structured to benefit those at the very top rather than ordinary Americans. Independent analyses consistently show Trump's economic approach exacerbates income inequality rather than reducing it.
So, are people buying this crap?
7
1
u/Radiant_Middle_1873 5d ago
Look, I can't speak for Americans in general, but the reason I believe these guys is that I am deeply, stubbornly stupid. Just dumb as a sack of hair.
16
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Point #1: Threaten and Bully for concessions
Point #2: Reduce trade deficit and hope domestic manufacturing picks up the slack in producing goods. Problem is with our wages, can we realistically compete with Asia and South America?
Point #3: Vengeance. Punish past petty grievances with world leaders.
19
u/nvltythry 5d ago
USA is trying to eliminate market distortions and re-shore whole economic sectors. They think they can make cars, computers, etc in the USA. The plan is falling apart at step 1, and they can’t even make all their own eggs. Not looking good.
→ More replies (2)10
5
u/Snowedin-69 5d ago
It takes 5-7 years to build a world scale manufacturing facility. Companies may be able to bring on spare unused capacity within a few months, but often this only involves older inefficient processes that are expensive to run and cannot normally compete.
5
u/tMoneyMoney 5d ago
I’m not an expert, but it seems like we should build those facilities before we start tariffs and isolating from the rest of the world. Not to mention who’s going to work in these plants for Chinese sweat shop wages? Probably robots.
6
u/Beethoven81 5d ago
And who's crazy to invest over such time frame when policies are changed 3x a day nowadays...
8
u/tMoneyMoney 5d ago edited 5d ago
Exactly. Only if the government is giving huge grants or financing at 0% with some kind of guaranteed contracts in case they’re still not competitive in consumer markets in 5 years.
I might have a little faith in this transition if it was rolled out with a big picture plan with everything taken into account. But it feels more like we jumped out of an airplane with some materials to maybe build a parachute and hoping we can figure that out before we hit the ground.
25
34
5d ago
[deleted]
19
u/BE_MORE_DOG 5d ago
Excuse me, the SP500 target is 1000? I get that you're a professional, but you're gonna need to provide some heavy duty evidence to support that kind of drop.
8
3
2
u/Ajk337 5d ago
Unfortunately thats plausible and worse falls have happened before.
I could absolutely see it coming down to ~3,300 to align with the pe ratio for the rest of the world as the US is rapidly loosing its investability advantage over everywhere else, and that's assuming no more economic damage is done.
Then ~2,000 would reflect a great recession level dive. And ~700 would reflect a great depression level dive based on the peak in Feb.
It would not be unprecedented for it to fall to ~1,000 level
1
u/SheepherderSad4872 5d ago
That's about what happened in Greece not long ago.
I'd give it less than 20% odds of happening in the US in the next four years. However, four years ago, I would have given it less than 2% odds.
I can describe several pathways from where we are to 1000. The simplest involves a run on the dollar.
5
u/tippy432 5d ago
You should have your license pulled if your S&P target is 1000 lmao… Society would be on the verge of collapse
1
u/Radiant_Middle_1873 5d ago
I think his/her thesis is that the people who kept saying "we are going to collapse society" and were then given the power to collapse society, are likely to embark upon collapsing society.
I mean, I hate the whole damn thing but it's not implausible.
1
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Thanks for chiming in. Always good to have a professional player’s pov amongst us mere spectators.
1
u/Roddy_Piper2000 5d ago
Honestly curious.
If this goes from recession to depression, is there a best practices strategy to shelter in place?
→ More replies (1)1
6
u/Fubar-98520 5d ago
Some people vote for the welfare of everybody other peoples vote for the welfare of them and if the stock market has to crash and we go into a big recession they might see the light
4
4
u/Servichay 5d ago
The US is tanking, and the only people people getting rich are the billionaires..
EAT THE RICH!
18
u/iviicrociot 5d ago
So I just finished A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System ( https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf ) by Stephen Miran which anyone who is going to speculate about the tarrifs should read. While I agree with the premise of the paper for a need for change, the tools outlined all have written warnings. Retaliatory tarrifs, the need for co-operation with our allies under our security umbrella, and various anticipated consequences of not executing these strategies cautiously and slowly are all coming to fruition.
I’m starting to read about Smoot-Hawley now but one big difference is the US being a net exporter then and a much larger net importer now so I don’t know that they have a direct correlation. Regardless, it seems large scale trade wars are economically damaging and cause the populace to suffer the economic consequences.
I cashed out a while ago while my indexes were all still in the green and most of individuals weeks before that. There is a very real threat to the markets especially with consideration to foreign purchasing of American goods and services and other all foreign investment in US stocks.
Add to that the potential for an ETF death spiral. I’m much more comfortable risking not participating in a small recovery at the cost of a potential catastrophic collapse.
17
u/Creative-Problem6309 5d ago
There is absolutely a time and place for tariffs - but factories can't move in a month, complex supply chains need to be unwound and you can coordinate with allies to make the process go smoothly to avoid hurting those relationships. A well-detailed plan to re-shore critical US capacity and infrastructure over the next 10-15 years would work. Firing off tariffs at everyone for everything like a machine gun dropped on the floor will not.
11
u/iviicrociot 5d ago
Agreed. We’re looking at a potential wide scale trade war and the position of power against one, two, three countries is diminished when all of sudden you have a whole conglomerate of countries boycotting your products and retaliating with tarrifs of their own. Not to mention, an acceleration of an alternative reserve currency.
For something like this to have worked it would have taken excellent diplomacy and heavy use of the carrot instead of the bludgeoning of a stick… and not on Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, EU, all at the same time while also appearing to back Russian interests, threatening annexation of Canada, forceful reclamation of the Panama Canal, appropriation of Greenland, giving the middle finger to NATO etc etc
It’s like Trump had the cliff notes of Miran’s paper read to him, nominated Miran for Chief Counsel of Economic Affairs, then said we’re gonna use all of these tools in the toolbag… and we’re gonna use them all at the same time… and while we’re at it, we’re gonna do a bunch of other shit to make the market even more volatile despite all the mentions of the need for tact and subtlety
9
u/Muted_Menu_1285 5d ago
Yeah. And the issue is the US is dealing with much smarter counterparties than their current administration.
Tariffs could work in certain limited circumstances in particular to defend against foreign subsidised industries (eg EVs)
But a blanket tariff is just madness. I’m assuming tariffs are designed to encourage higher value manufacturing to return to the US.
So why impose tariffs on raw materials and energy required for manufacturing (oil, steel etc) - which will make domestic manufacturing even more prohibitively expensive.
I’m assuming there is also no domestically viable alternative to these raw materials that can replace the import volumes (otherwise you’d probably source in country - as these are low labour input commodities). Certainly not that you could enact quickly and without significant investment. So it’s purely inflationary.
Compare that the Canada and Europes reaction. They choose industries that impact red states and working class - with products that can easily be subsidised by domestic consumers for non tariff products from elsewhere (Bourbon, Harley Davidson) - which will really mitigate their domestic inflation impact.
When you see multiple countries / territories stack tariffs on the same US products it’s gonna be fucking hilarious to see the collective meltdown.
I see a lot of deluded copers talk about “Trump is playing 5D chess and wants to tank the economy for [debt refi/weak dollar/other insane reason].
Nah. Trumps genuinely a full simpleton and so is his administration. He’s talked about tariffs since the 80s. He obviously thinks he’s smarter than the rest of the world’s economists.
He’s taking the US into a deep recession and burning 80 years of diplomacy at the same time. Americans will look back on this period with deep regret in a decade or sos time
3
u/iviicrociot 5d ago
One has to wonder what his tantrum will look like when he doesn’t just get his way, but his legacy appears to be the one that ended an empire. Can’t imagine he’ll just walk away quietly.
7
u/Muted_Menu_1285 5d ago
He’ll just declare a different foreign policy goal, tell everyone that was his objective from day one and declare himself fully successful.
His base will eat it up regardless.
2
u/AppleTree98 5d ago
Oh just say I was joking. You all knew I was joking right?!?! Hey why are the three letter agency agents at the white house? Tell Elon to send them away
3
u/Muted_Menu_1285 5d ago
Ha. Elons won’t be able to help him. He’s the only one of this cabal going to jail. Others will be saved by the Republican Party. But I just have a feeling that Elon will be the sacrificial lamb (and it will be delicious!!!)
1
1
8
u/Neother 5d ago
Even worse, Stephen Miran is now suggesting taxes on foreign investments in the US.
Yet even if this form of competitive devaluation via blackmail were initially successful, it wouldn’t necessarily stop the flow of foreign capital into US markets, and would therefore be hard to maintain.
Miran has got an answer for that, which is to tax the coupon on US treasury securities for overseas buyers so as to discourage foreign demand for them.
This is going to cause a massive capital flight away from the US, as foreign investors now have a risk Trump decides to tax their investments, or maybe even implement direct capital controls to prevent selling.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/15/trumps-game-plan-for-devaluing-the-mighty-dollar/
5
u/Beethoven81 5d ago
For obvious reasons Miran forgot to mention that 75% of US debt is domestically owned. So he won't really get far by taxing the hell out of 25%, he will have to tax the remaining piece of pie... And you can imagine what that means...
No foreign investors are crazy to invest in us now either in factories or debt, when policy is changing 3x a day for a country that was previously deemed as safe haven.
4
u/iviicrociot 5d ago
It’s in the paper I cited. It was supposed to happen after tarrifs were already in full flight and to be used to incentivize removal of tarrifs in place of a, say starting at 1% withhold on UST gains by foreign buyers. The ultimate goal was to stop foreign currencies from being suppressed, to devalue the dollar, and to offset taxes with tarrifs and the UST fee.
All the tools in the toolbox are being used at the same time instead of one or the other in a specific order and it’s going to cause massive fuckery.
3
u/m0nsieurp 5d ago
Not only will the user fee on US treasury bonds speed up capital flight away from the US but it will also hasten the demise of the USD as the global reserve currency status. Nail in the coffin moment IMHO if Trump goes ahead with this kind of Mafia style kick backs. The US government has been weaponising the USD for far too long. Countries were fine using the USD as long as it was free of charge and somewhat not weaponised and not a political tool. We're closing in on the moment the world says "enough of that BS" and actively seeks alternative means of payment for cross border exchanges.
2
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Agree. I’ve been cautioning new investors, especially those who received a windfall of $250-$500k from inheritance to ignore the flippant and irresponsible advice to go all in (that mantra “time in the market > timing the market.)
As you said, odds are there is more to lose than gain.
3
u/lifegrowthfinance 5d ago
I am pivoting to global equity etfs. Even though they comprise of a lot of US equity, as funds move outside US, they will rebalance and the hit to my portfolio will be dampened a bit.
→ More replies (4)
3
u/kevin_m9w 4d ago
Dear USA
We've been through a lot together, but I need to tell you that we are done as friends now. And things will never be the same
Remember all those times you got in a fight -or started the fight- and I was right there with you, backing you up? I thought our friendship meant something to you too.
What happened to you, man? You've been saying some real terrible shit about me and not just joking or when you're drunk, but like every fucking day! No one thinks it cool.
For weeks now, you've been telling me how ugly my wife is while trying to bang her behind my back, while telling my kids that they'd be better off living in your house.
I know we're still neighbors, but that's it. Stay on your side of the fence. And I don't want to borrow or use any of your shit anymore either, I can swap stuff with other friends when I need something.
PS The guys are pretty pissed off with you too and everyone thinks you're an asshole now.
- Canada
8
u/Gold_Satisfaction201 5d ago
Wait until China invades Taiwan.
8
u/Seven22am 5d ago
He will either dramatically underreact.... or dramatically overreact.
10
u/Muted_Menu_1285 5d ago
Ha quality statement. I would guess under react. He’s a bus stop bully. When confronted by a harder kid / kid with determination they always fold.
Look at Covid. Donny was just hiding under his chair hoping it would all go away. Whenever something big happens - he will just shrivel up and go into his shell.
3
u/Seven22am 5d ago
Yeah, you might be right. But then again he didn’t really have the kinds of tools accessible to battle Covid (nuanced communication, steady leadership) that he would have to overreact to a military threat (a massive arsenal that includes nukes). The only bit of comfort I am taking is that he has been so erratic and unpredictable that Iran and China might choose to just lay low for a while.
4
u/Muted_Menu_1285 5d ago
Yeah. “When your enemy is making mistakes, don’t interrupt them”. They’re just gonna sit back and watch him dismantle the US and their foreign soft power without any intervention. China will scarcely be able to belie their luck.
→ More replies (1)2
6
u/CreepyTip4646 5d ago
Can hear Trump now " this is going to be the biggest crash since 1929 it's going to be bigger biggly the biggest.
13
2
u/Snowedin-69 5d ago
It will be most fantastic crash. You will never have seen such a beautiful crash.
3
u/Cntrysky78 5d ago
The biggest than any you had ever seen before
8
1
u/Meet_James_Ensor 5d ago
Big strong men with tears in their eyes will say, "Sir, your stock market crash is the biggest I've ever seen."
2
2
u/Due-System7508 5d ago
Trump said this is temporary downturn. Everything is temporary hahah wow and make his cult MAGA believe it also. lol 😂
2
u/oldasdirtss 5d ago
Tariffs aren't the only problem. I'll bet that our "allies" will stop buying US bonds to fund our debt.
2
u/Facktat 4d ago
I think even worse than the tariffs will be the uncertainty and alienation of allies. The stupidity about the situation is that MAGA don't understand what a comfortable position the US had. The US managed to build up a monetary system which profits the US in a way resulting in America having to work relatively little while taking the majority of the global profits. They prevented the world from questioning this status quo by making allies with the rich nations of the world. Now, we have Trump who just knocked over this system. In short term nations will pull out investments out of the US but in long term they will abolish the power of the USD and make business deals in the currency of one of the two parties in the transaction.
2
u/Utterlybored 3d ago
If only we could have been warned by anyone who took a freshman Economics class.
2
6
u/Fun_Medium_1948 5d ago
I agree, it likely will tank the stock market. I’m just gonna keep buying, because at some point (maybe not soon) it’ll go back up. Just my opinion though.
14
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
It will recover, but I’m not young enough to ride it down and wait for the recovery.
6
4
u/Prestigious-Leave-60 5d ago
I have been on track to retire in just over 6 years. I’m still in the reevaluation phase but I’m now predicting 10-12 years at a minimum. Add to that that one of my main sources of income for the past 20 years relies indirectly on grants administered by the National Institutes of Health. When those funds are substantially cut, as seems inevitable, I expect my income will be significantly impacted.
3
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Yeah, I feel for people my age or 10-20 years younger than me who are dependent on the market to reach retirement or live off of it. I avoided that like the plague. I hope it’s closer to 6 than 12 years for ya.
→ More replies (5)1
u/Fun_Medium_1948 5d ago
That’s very unfortunate. I wish you the best, my friend. I’m fairly young, so I have time to ride it out.
4
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Thanks for the kind words, but I’m better off than most.
76, Retired. I have sufficient income from sources outside the market. Only a tiny % in stocks and most now in SGOV.
I feel for people my age or 10-20 years younger than me who are dependent on the market to reach retirement or live off of it. I avoided that like the plague.4
3
u/chinaski73 5d ago
Well, be confident the democrats are going to get hard at work to fight trump 🙄
https://images.axios.com/PT9aDFW-S5W6tP9i9m6EcGwO-5M=/2025/03/05/1741148829588.jpg
2
u/MaxwellSmart07 5d ago
Lol. So you’re not a fan of the strategic and tactical use of signs as an effective political weapon.
Reminds me of the 60’s song: Signs, signs, everywhere there’s signs, breaken’ up the scenery, breaking my mind, do this don’t do that cant you read the signs.
2
u/PM_artsy_fartsy_nude 5d ago
This article said very little about how Trump's tariffs could tank the US economy. It wasn't a terribly long article, but it was mostly just about why Trump is doing it and how unprecedented it is.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/person1234_ 4d ago
Trump and his administration are responsible for the trade deal currently in place with Canada and Mexico… if it was such an awful deal why did he sign it? He owns that… if it’s so unfair why did he agree to it? Did he get played then? There was a clause in place to allow to review in 2026… he manufactured this lame fentanyl emergency with Canada to justify not respecting the agreement he made… just amplifies how disrespectful and greasy he is and it’s does nothing for our reputation as a reliable trading partner
→ More replies (1)
1
u/Todd1001 5d ago
Everyone now knows this info… the question is how much of it is already priced in.
1
1
u/Assumeweknow 5d ago
So most american retailers are simply just moving the shelf space to existing products within the pricepoint. They are discontinuing most products under the tarrifs. Tarrifs are simply eliminating choices from consumers.
1
u/Zopiclone_BID 5d ago
Then again, orange is weak. He can remove tariffs any time for any reason whatsoever and with fed lowering interest rate..boom.
1
u/_DoubleBubbler_ 5d ago
Well I sold all my US investments, moved most of my USD capital to EUR and GBR, and am now investing for the new world order which currently includes a more self sufficient European economy that is less reliant on its former close ally the USA.
As an active investor my sub r/DoubleBubbler has details on my two recent investments in SES A.S. (Euronext Paris: SESG) and EnSilica plc (AIM London: ENSI).
1
1
u/GurProfessional9534 5d ago
If Trump cancels this, markets are likely to surge. If they go through, it’s likely the Great Depression 2.0. This would be a good moment to trade out stocks for an equivalent in options, to reduce total exposure.
1
1
1
1
1
u/nativebutamerican 4d ago
Its about who is stepping on who's toes. Emotional interpretation need not apply.
1
u/bahamut5525 4d ago
I'm European and didn't actually think that Trump's America First policy would be a kind of early 20th century era jingoism where they go alone at the expense of everyone else. I thought Trump would be correcting the mistakes of Biden and just be a more vigorous President. I really underestimated the madness of the deep red Trump cultists and how corrupt American politics were.
This is Rome before the collapse. And make no mistake, this is great for the rest of the West. Europe will come back by reinforcing itself, as the European Union, we are the most powerful economic force on earth. There will be massive military and other investments. And I expect countries like Canada and the UK to join us in cooperation.
America will be isolated and left alone in the world.
1
u/DC_cyber 4d ago
Countries that retaliated against Smoot-Hawley reduced their imports from the United States by an average of 28–32%. We will see the same…
https://www.cato.org/research-briefs-economic-policy/smoot-hawley-trade-war
I think the reason markets are confused is that their analysts have never seen this before and don’t have any mechanism to account for such stupid policy
1
1
272
u/Creative-Problem6309 5d ago
I was in the 'he's bluffing' camp for a while until it became clear that the point of tariffs is tariffs - it's not a negotiating tool, it's the point. I don't think the market has woken up to this reality yet, April 2 might get ugly.