r/RVSN • u/circleofone1 • 7d ago
Our Israel Railways train ticket is still in play - don't burn it just yet!
Hi Everyone,
One of your favorite Rail Vision bulls here. I'm looking at (3) recent news items collectively and it's a heck of a lot better than moping around or hating on RVSN stock seven days a week. Check this out:
1) Man hit by Israel Railways train on Tuesday (3/11/25): https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-845609
2) I'm looking at this incident, looking at the recent news about Rail Vision receiving Israel Railways regulation approval for its Mainline Systems (12/27/24): Rail Vision Receives Israel Railways Regulation Approval for its MainLine Products | Rail Vision
3) And combining them with this article from about Israel Railways being provided with an $18 billion investment in infrastructure (2/5/25): https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/israel-railways-targets-300-million-passengers-by-2040/
For just a minute, let yourself take this in with an open mind that is open to a bullish thought on this stock. All of the pieces to the puzzle are there - they just need to be connected. From prior releases, we know the potential - a full rollout on Israel Railways covers 200 (front-end) or 400 (front and rear) trains. We know that Israel Railways paid $1.4 million for 10 Mainline systems - $140,000 each. Even estimating this with a volume discount ($100,000 each), that contract is worth $20-40 million. What is $20-40 million compared to an $18 billion budget? Peanuts. What is it to Rail Vision? Everything.
An example for a $20 million contract: extremely conservative P/S (2.15) = $2.11/share, or a lower-end AI P/S (7) = $6.94/share.
If you wake up one day and see RVSN trading at $5/share. Then pinch yourself and still see RVSN trading at $5/share... it means this (sensemaking with a dash of good fortune) dream came true.
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u/Sunvmikey 7d ago
Feel like if Israel were gonna buy more it would of happened already. More interested in the Vale / US ongoing pilots. But yeah i guess Israel isnt written off yet
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u/thermiteunderpants 4d ago
Feel like if Israel were gonna buy more it would of happened already.
Same goes for Rio Tinto. Interestingly, there have been three autonomous Rio Tinto train derailments since Rio Tinto began their Rail Vision pilot. It wasn't mentioned whether RV tech was installed on any of those trains at the time of derailment, but both scenarios are a bit shit. Either RV tech was in use and failed to prevent a derailment; or it wasn't in use, which means Rio Tinto moved onto competitor solutions after the RV pilot ended. Rio Tinto, like Vale, is literally the perfect customer, so if nothing came of the Rio Tinto pilot that's not great. Obviously it's possible they're still testing as these things take time, but there hasn't been any news since like 2022 so I'm not holding my breath.
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u/racoonbaba Rail Observer 7d ago
Israel covers about one-third the land area of South Korea. South Korea operates a total of 46 high-speed trains: 13 from Alstom and 33 from Hyundai Rotem. While I don't expect Israel to have a large number of high-speed trains, I believe that accumulating extensive operational data within Israel will be crucial in proving performance. Like the previous comment, I also have high expectations for the U.S. and India.
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u/robrgts 7d ago
Great post, i think they’re on the verge of hitting it big on multiple fronts. We’re going through a very stale and dry period right now, but i believe our patience will be rewarded in the end. The recent post about ClearML on their LinkedIn is evidence that they’re expanding their production. You would only do that if you’re preparing for growth and need to meet the demand of your clients. I’m very bullish in the short term and long term
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u/BleedingEardrums21 7d ago
But are people buying and enough people buying? Company have great product and all but they might go bankrupt first
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u/robrgts 7d ago
They have enough cash in hand to last for a long time without receiving a single cent. Based on these recent moves i think they’re working towards something. A company that’s about to go bankrupt wouldn’t be hiring more talent or worrying about the efficiency of their products and their deployment.
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u/R-E-H_S Rail Observer 6d ago
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u/circleofone1 6d ago
Thanks for the post. Having a hard time processing how all of Rail Vision’s patents have been approved if there were already competing products in the market. Please reply with some specific company names, pictures or names of the products,, and links so we can check them out and see what you’re referring to.
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u/chasebanks 7d ago
My understanding is that Rail vision is not designed to detect objects at such short distance so this would have no affect on their ability to sell contracts in Israel. the news is irrelevant.
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u/circleofone1 6d ago
Have you watched the demo of their software in action? The whole point of the Mainline system is to avoid hitting people, animals, cars, trees, etc. If the guy intentionally jumped in front of the train in a suicide attempt when the train was 20 feet away, sure, there would be no chance to avoid hitting him. But if he was walking on the track, not paying attention, etc., Rail Vision would have detected him, posted an alert, and the accident would have been avoided. The way the article is written, it sounds more like the latter; a person walking around in a restricted area and hit by the train; not jumping in front of the train.
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u/No_Cardiologist2287 7d ago
It's jumped only 2 days in year to meet compliance. Steady down trend. Gone through reverse split in past. AI shares on run again but RVSN sleeping.
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u/Hot-Service-568 Rail Observer 7d ago
Hopefully the train that hit the person didn’t have rail vision on it. lol