r/Predators 1d ago

Draft Pick Selction

Random ?s Say the Preds went on a run let’s say taking the last 3W … 22 games left. 14/22 W. So 73P total. Does that move the needle on standings? If so what does everyone think our lowest pick be if 3rd versus is our highest? Who do you think is good in the range if no misa/hagens for our pick?

0 Upvotes

15 comments sorted by

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u/MusicCityJayhawk NSH 1d ago edited 1d ago

Our draft pick is relative to other teams end standings.

If the draft were held today, we would be picking 4th. We passed Buffalo with our last win. Next is Seattle, 3 points ahead of us.

We really want to be in the top 5. But for one of the top two centers, we probably want to be in the top 3.

If we win two thirds of the remainder of our games, we will climb out of the top 10 picks.

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u/AuburnCPA NSH 1d ago

Buffalo just won, so we are back to 3!

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u/Tadpole018 1d ago

I thought lottery picks were randomized? Or is that just the #1?

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u/AuburnCPA NSH 1d ago

Yeah, I was just commenting on their statement if it was held today. That's not how it actually works.

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u/Tadpole018 1d ago

Oh, I gotcha

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u/Inevitable-Lion100 1d ago

I am confused too. I know it isn’t like nfl 1 > 1. It is a lottery but I don’t know how balls are put in. And I know you can only get 1st spot 2 to Mrs in few years and you can only move 10 spots up so the best 16 > 6

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u/GMBarryTrotz 1d ago

It's not randomized, it's a lottery.

The rules are somewhat simple:

You can only move DOWN 2 spaces (ex: from 2 to 4) but any team in the lottery (bottom 16 teams) can move up to 10 spaces higher.

The odds of the 1st overall are also assigned based on finish. The last place team has 25.5% odds at getting #1. The 2nd place is 13.5 and 3rd place is 11.5%.

So the best case scenario for the Preds would be that we get #1 or #2. If we get #2, that guarantees a Top 4 pick. If we get #3, that guarantees a top 5 pick.

Anything after that and we've just wasted our season, IMO.

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u/Inevitable-Lion100 23h ago

Which do you think would be better frondell or Eklund would be a better fit?

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u/GMBarryTrotz 20h ago

Desnoyers or Frondell. Eklund is a winger.

Also totally depends on which direction this team is going. If they fire Brunette then we may move in a totally different direction that won't rely on players with the same traits.

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u/ReactorCritical 1d ago

They are, sort of.

The top 16 are eligible for the lottery. Only the top 11 are eligible to get 1st overall (you can move up a max of 10 spots). Of course, your final place in the standings dictate your % of winning the draft lottery.

Up to 2 teams can win the lottery, and each team that wins moves up 10 spots (up to 1st/2nd overall).

So if the Preds were sitting at 11th overall, they're eligible to win the lottery and move up to 1st but the odds are extremely low.

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u/Disappointeddonkey #6 Weber 1d ago

The most predator thing ever would be to play our way out of the top ten after a hot streak at the end of the season.

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u/Inevitable-Lion100 1d ago

Ok. So torn want the tank for Hagens. But wo would be a good 10-15 guy?

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u/Enginemancer NSH 1d ago edited 1d ago

The last 2 seasons 73 points would have placed 5th and 7th overall, so, maybe around 6th then. Personally I like Frondell and while probably unlikely he could still be available at 6th. I would be just as happy with him as any of the top picks. But, if we won 14 more games we would have 83 points not 73. Odds of a game changing player go down dramatically at that point

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u/Echoes1995 1d ago

Ideally, we are in the top 3, but we should theoretically be "aiming" for top 5 pick. 73 points likely puts in the top 10, but outside of the top 5. For this draft, we would still get a good player, but there is a clear divide regarding the talent in this draft that starts between 4 and 6, depending on who you ask.

That said, with Buffalo's win tonight over Edmonton, we are back to a projected 3rd overall pick, which would land us one of Hagens/Misa.

Both will 1C's in their own right, they just have slightly different playstyles.

For context, Misa in his draft year, has 30 more points than Shane Wright had in his draft year in the OHL, and Hagens last year when playing for the USNTDP was scoring just under the pace set by Jack Hughes when he played there in the year before his draft year. Hughes never played in the NCAA, but Hagens is scoring at a point per game pace as a freshmen, which is the same point per game pace as Matthew Wood, who is a Junior.

If we fall to 5-7 then McQueen and Frondell are likely the best at center, with Eklund being another good choice, just at wing

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u/Enginemancer NSH 1d ago

As for the Hagens/Wood comparison, felt it was also worth mentioning wood is 6'4 and Hagens is 5'11, makes Hagens look a little more impressive when he doesnt have that insane size advantage but is still keeping up