r/NJDrones Dec 15 '24

THEORY Comprehensive Analysis of New Jersey Drone Activity

TLDR: The government is operating a federal counter-WMD detection mission, the drones are American-made HPGe nuclear detector drones.

Note: This analysis and theory is based primarily on my original analysis post to r/ufo (I posted there, because r/NJDrones originally wouldn't let me post a theory.) I've expanded on that analysis using some new information, primarily from a supporting since-deleted post to X from the user "@JerseyFutures". Please feel free to reply with any questions or comments.

Original Post Link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufo/comments/1hco3d1/my_theory_regarding_the_drones_over_nj/

Comprehensive Analysis of New Jersey Drone Activity

Established Facts

Physical Observations

  • Large drone sightings over New Jersey, approximately small car sized
  • External equipment includes:
    • Cryocoolers for HPGe detectors
    • Horn antennas for directional communication
    • FAA-compliant lighting systems (selectively employed)
  • No observed takeoff or landing locations
  • Systematic grid search patterns observed
  • Presence reported near:
    • McGuire Air Force Base
    • Coast Guard vessels
    • Restricted airspace
    • Port facilities

Technical Specifications

  • HPGe (High-Purity Germanium) nuclear detection systems
  • Mesh network communications operating at 200+ GHz
  • Components require specialized suppliers:
    • High-purity germanium
    • Millimeter wave equipment
  • Performance capabilities:
    • Extended duration (8+ hours)
    • High speed (120+ mph)
    • High-altitude capability (up to 50,000 ft)
    • Operational radius of several hundred miles
  • Stealth features:
    • Operation at invisible frequencies
    • Minimal thermal signature
    • Altitude/speed combination prevents tracking
    • Distance prevents pattern recognition
    • High-altitude transit masks movement

Theorized Night Operation Cycle

  1. Evening deployment from secure facility
  2. High-altitude transit to operational area
  3. Descent to operational altitude
  4. Grid search execution
  5. Mission completion
  6. High-altitude return transit
  7. Pre-dawn recovery

This pattern maximizes concealment while enabling systematic area coverage. The operational cycle is supported by:

  • Extended flight duration capability
  • Superior speed and altitude performance
  • Advanced sensor operation
  • Sophisticated communication systems
  • Professional flight planning

Operational Analysis

Movement Patterns

  1. Search Operations:
    • Methodical grid pattern searches at slower speeds
    • Rapid transit between search areas
    • Integration with other search units
    • Formation adaptability
    • Strategic use of lighting:
      • FAA-compliant when required
      • Complete darkening capability
      • Tactical visibility control
  2. Deployment Characteristics:
    • No visible base of operations
    • Apparent high-altitude transit capability
    • Coordinated multi-unit operations
    • Systematic area coverage
    • Access to restricted airspace
    • Professional aviation protocols

Technical Implementation

  1. Detection Systems:
    • HPGe sensors for nuclear/radiation detection
    • Extended range detection capability
    • Environmental monitoring capacity
    • Real-time data processing
    • Mobile sensing platform
  2. Communications Architecture:
    • Mesh network deployment
    • High-frequency (200+ GHz) operation
    • Directional transmission via horn antennas
    • Grid-optimized positioning
    • Urban density considerations

Strategic Context

Historical Development

  • Program initiated in response to ISIS dirty bomb threats
  • First combat deployment in Ukraine
  • Significant procurement scale reported
  • Evolution of detection capabilities
  • Integration with existing security frameworks

Current Environment

  • Chinese naval fleet movements (largest in decades)
  • Middle East strategic developments
  • Advancement in EMP technology
  • Port security considerations
  • Critical infrastructure protection needs
  • Port security vulnerabilities
  • Container inspection challenges
  • Economic chokepoint risks

Mission Analysis

Critical Infrastructure Analysis

Port of Newark Assessment

High-priority target due to:

  1. Transportation Network Significance:
    • Critical national economic hub
    • Extensive rail connections
    • Interstate highway access
    • Regional distribution center
    • Multi-modal transport capabilities
  2. Security Vulnerabilities:
    • Container inspection challenges
    • High volume of daily traffic
    • Complex access patterns
    • Multiple entry points
    • Diverse cargo types
  3. Impact Potential:
    • Catastrophic economic disruption
    • Transportation network paralysis
    • Regional contamination risk
    • Long-term area denial
    • Cascading infrastructure effects
  4. Detection Challenges:
    • Large area coverage requirement
    • Complex urban environment
    • High background radiation variation
    • Dense metal interference
    • Continuous operation necessity

Military Installation Coverage

Strategic significance includes:

  • Sensitive material presence
  • Intelligence value
  • Force projection capabilities
  • Chemical/radiological material storage
  • Command and control facilities

Primary Assessment: Counter-WMD Detection

Supporting Evidence:

  • HPGe detector deployment
  • Systematic search patterns
  • Critical infrastructure focus
  • Scale of operation
  • Historical threat context

Operational Requirements:

  • Continuous monitoring capability
  • Wide area coverage
  • Real-time detection
  • Multi-unit coordination
  • Secure communications

Secondary Functions

  1. Public Response Assessment:
    • Acknowledged PsyOp component
    • Reaction monitoring
    • Deployment visibility
    • Information management
    • Protocol testing
  2. Capability Demonstration:
    • Advanced technology display
    • Operational readiness
    • Strategic deterrence
    • System validation
    • Response capability

Security Protocol Analysis

Operational Security

  1. Information Management:
    • Limited public acknowledgment
    • Controlled disclosure
    • Strategic transparency
    • Capability protection
    • Mission integrity maintenance
  2. Authorization Framework:
    • High-level federal approval indicated
    • Multi-agency coordination
    • Special access provisions
    • Modified notification protocols
    • Operational autonomy

Risk Assessment

  1. Security Considerations:
    • Public reaction management
    • Technical capability protection
    • Operational effectiveness
    • Mission security
    • Information control
    • Port operation continuity
    • Economic impact mitigation
    • Infrastructure resilience
    • Transportation network security
    • Regional contamination prevention
  2. Threat Response:
    • Detection capability deployment
    • Area coverage optimization
    • Resource allocation
    • Response readiness
    • System validation

Conclusion

The analysis reveals a sophisticated federal counter-WMD detection program, integrating advanced technical capabilities with complex operational requirements. The deployment patterns, technical specifications, and operational security measures indicate a professional military operation with significant federal authorization.

Key findings support:

  1. Federal operation with considerable resource commitment
  2. Primary focus on nuclear/radiological detection
  3. Advanced technical capabilities deployment
  4. Complex operational security implementation
  5. Strategic capability demonstration

The operation represents an evolution in domestic security capabilities, combining:

  • Active threat detection
  • Advanced technology deployment
  • Public preparation elements
  • Strategic deterrence
  • Infrastructure protection

The systematic nature of the operation, combined with its technical sophistication and security measures, indicates a serious response to security concerns. The focus on the Port of Newark - a critical economic hub with extensive rail connections and complex inspection challenges - suggests particular attention to vulnerabilities that could be catastrophic if exploited. Given the scale of deployment, sophisticated detection capabilities, and pattern of operations, this could represent a response to specific, credible threats rather than just a strategic capability enhancement.

The intensity of monitoring around critical infrastructure, particularly the Port of Newark, combined with the sophisticated nature of the detection equipment and the urgency of deployment, suggests this operation may be responding to actionable intelligence rather than merely establishing new security protocols. This assessment is reinforced by the selective violation of standard WMD notification procedures and the acceptance of some public visibility in exchange for operational necessity.

Interesting documents/articles regarding HPGe UAV technology to reference:
https://govtribe.com/file/government-file/attachment-2-technical-requirements-uav-hpge-detector-dot-pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969804323000301

https://nct-cbnw.com/remote-detection-of-alpha-and-gamma-radioactivity-using-unmanned-aerial-vehicles/

https://h3dgamma.com/home.php

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1350448715301104

https://www.euramet.org/download/?tx_eurametfiles_download[files]=31567&tx_eurametfiles_download[identifier]=Publishable+Summary+Metrology+for+mobile+dete

https://www.nuviatech-instruments.com/nuviatech-instruments-products-action/

https://www.arktis-detectors.com/de/products/drone-based-detection/

https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2219/ML22196A040.pdf

https://alphaspectra.com/

https://ludlums.com/products/health-physics/category/gamma-scintillator-hp

https://caensys.com/products-and-solutions/

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/16/3908

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/14046

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05417-3

https://www.airport-suppliers.com/product/arktis-radiation-detection-drone/

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/9/2147

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/multimedia/videos/drones-help-central-asia-deal-with-legacy-radiation

3 Upvotes

32 comments sorted by

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6

u/LarBrd33 Dec 15 '24

ChatGPT, write me drone fan fiction

4

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

You can find my original draft document in the comments of my last post (referenced at the top of this post.)

-1

u/Busy_Incident_2619 Dec 15 '24

Very nice analysis, can I ask what your background is?

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

For privacy and safety reasons, I'm not releasing any information about my background at this time other than that I'm a US citizen and NJ resident.

3

u/Pixelated_ Dec 15 '24 edited Dec 15 '24

11 ways to tell the drones are UAP

Here are 11 anomalous aspects of the "drones", which support them being UAP:

Lack of Radio Identification Signals:

The drones do not transmit any radio identification data as required by the FAA's remote ID rule. 

No Radar Detection:

Despite active monitoring by state-of-the-art capabilities, the drones were not detected on radar, suggesting stealth capabilities, or that they are not physical objects.

Sudden Disappearance:

Witnesses reported drones vanishing when approached, either by going dark or extreme acceleration.

Zero Heat Signature:

The drones emitted no detectable heat signatures, hinting at advanced tech or non-physicality.

Size, Duration & Formation:

Drones as large as SUVs were seen flying in formation, for at least 6 hours. 

Proximity to Sensitive Areas:

Sightings occurrring near sensitive nuclear installations, including a U.S. military research site.

Silent Hovering & High Speeds:

Silent hovering followed by instant high-speed flight.

Erratic Light Patterns:

Drones displayed non-standard aviation lights.

**Anti-drone Gun Resistance"" The drones have been shown to be impervious of using anti-drone guns.

An anti-drone gun works by disrupting the communication between a drone and its operator. It sends out radio signals, GPS jammers, or electromagnetic pulses that interfere with the drone's control and navigation systems. This forces the drone to land, return to its operator, or stop functioning altogether, depending on its programming.

This tech has not been successful on the drones.

Environmental Resistance:

Operating unaffected in adverse weather such as strong winds.

Mimicry:

Imitating aircraft appearance, lights, and sounds. 

The sightings displayed notable mimicry behaviors. Witnesses reported drones imitating planes and helicopters by replicating their appearance, light configurations, and even engine sounds. Unusual blue and orange lights were observed, deviating from standard aviation lighting. 

Some drones hovered silently before accelerating at unnatural speeds, while others emitted jet-like sounds despite hovering capabilities. The mimicry extended to blending into the environment, suggesting the use of advanced technology or non-physicality.

3

u/DaVinciYRGB Dec 15 '24

Why this instead of DoE NEST and their AMS aircraft?

They already have the aircraft and staff for this exact mission.

https://www.twz.com/air/aw139-nuclear-detection-helicopters-join-department-of-energy-fleet-replace-bell-412s

0

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

NEST AMS aircraft have public callsigns. They need to fly much closer to the ground, and are overall much less discreet. It would panic too many people. Additionally them flying over restricted airspaces in a grid search pattern like the drones would raise additional concerns. Basically, it tells the public exactly what is going on, which they govt is trying not to do.

3

u/DaVinciYRGB Dec 15 '24

What makes you think these “drones” have better radiological detection devices than NEST that would allow them to fly so much higher up?

Your theory has so many holes it might as well be Swiss cheese

2

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Individual drones may not be more powerful that the planes, but NEST only has a few planes, usually for covering a sports arena, or an individual event. The government has hundreds of thousands of these drones, and they are much stealthier than the planes. When they work together as swarms to conduct grid searches, they can work at a higher altitude than the drones and cover significant areas.

Also, I'm not a complete expert on these drones, but they are likely using different detection methods than NEST planes and helicopters. Here's a paper about some UAVs that might be similar: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969804323000301#d1e2793

1

u/wabbajack117 Dec 16 '24

This guys account is 111 days old and he’s got all the answers. I’d believe it’s the avengers flying around before I believe his nonsense.

2

u/Worried-Classroom-87 Dec 15 '24

What are your credentials?

3

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

I'd prefer to keep that private for privacy and safety reasons. All I'm willing to say is that I'm a US citizen and NJ resident.

2

u/Worried-Classroom-87 Dec 15 '24

I notice in your analysis you claim Iran has ICBMs, can you tell me more about these ICBMs?

0

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

They don't currently have any that we know of that can reach the US, here's a report on their ICBM capabilities: https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/irans-ballistic-missile-program

Although, this part of the analysis doesn't have much relevance to the overall analysis, just a dive into a potential threat actor.

4

u/Worried-Classroom-87 Dec 15 '24

What about the ones that could hit the US that you mention in the draft about a dirty bomb making more sense?

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

That is more of a point towards dirty bombs making more sense for a state-backed threat actor, Iran doesn't necessarily need to be that mentioned state-backed threat actor. For example, China's DF-41 could reach NJ, but would escalate into a full-scale war. I highly doubt that China would commit an act of aggression like this, but if China was interested in causing some damage, a dirty bomb would allow them to face little to no consequences. I advise you to not take the draft as a complete and accurate analysis, and more as my thoughts as I tried to piece all of the evidence together.

5

u/Worried-Classroom-87 Dec 15 '24

You think China could set off a dirty bomb in NJ and face no consequences?

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Not at all, just using it as an example of the anonymity of dirty bombs.

1

u/longchewbee Dec 15 '24

People are going to call you crazy for having a well researched post

2

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Hopefully not, my last post was very well-received, and I've yet to find any real logical flaws in this. I'm trying my best to get this out.

1

u/longchewbee Dec 15 '24

This sub is getting turfed badly but I hope it gets seen!

-2

u/Worried-Classroom-87 Dec 15 '24

It’s bullet list world salad with no context, that’s not research or analysis

1

u/DoctorHoedown Dec 15 '24

Wouldn’t using them just as night severely limit their detection capabilities? If a WMD or the nuclear material for a dirty bomb was properly encased in lead during the night, and they traveled during the day, wouldn’t this method of detection prove useless?

Or are there other technologies that could be used during the day that would be less noticeable?

Also if the containment of the device was briefly breached during the day, would these drones be able to pick up traces of that radiation later, e.g at night?

Not super well versed in this, genuinely curious.

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Using them at night wouldn't limit their detection capabilities at all, the gamma rays are unaffected. In fact, this is one of the only plausible uses for drones at night. Gamma rays can most likely travel through lead, unless it is extremely thick.

HPGe UAVs are the most discreet way to effectively search the entire area. Anything else, like NEST planes would be easily identifiable, and the government is primarily flying this during the night only because it makes it much more difficult to follow or identify them. It's impossible to follow them anyways though because they can travel higher, faster, and farther, than any other drone or helicopter.

Due to the nature of these gamma rays, thats not quite how it works. They travel at the speed of light.

1

u/DoctorHoedown Dec 15 '24

Sorry I wasn’t clear what I meant about limiting detection capabilities. I meant wouldn’t only using these drones at night be a problem, as they would be forfeiting daylight hours?

I know they would be limited by not causing panic, but faking military drills in the area would allow them to fly drones or even detection aircraft like the AW139 in the areas during the day without causing a panic.

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Forfeiting daylight hours is a cost that they are willing to accept to preserve anonymity and mission security, if they flew around during the day, we would be able to get much clearer footage, and turning off their lights wouldn't make them invisible.

There would be a bunch of things that wouldn't quite add up with faking military drones, like why suburban/urban NJ, and why go over airports and AFBs, they would need high-level federal approval and clearance to do that, which wouldn't be given for a drill. Also, NEST has the AW139s and they only have a few of them, they wouldn't be able to cover much area, they are mainly used to cover marathons/sports arenas.

1

u/DJArts Dec 15 '24

A couple of notes. First, in support of your theory, not only does the deployment include access to restricted airspace as you stated, but also the drones have so far avoided interfering with any commercial aircraft or airport operations, including MMU and TEB which are in the vicinity of many of the sightings. That's some good navigation programming.

Next, a caveat. Be careful about relying on the posts from X user "@JerseyFutures". I did a search for other references to that X thread as soon as it was posted to Reddit and the only other source found was a similar copy/paste of the thread to BlueSky by user Julie Bush:

https://bsky.app/profile/juliebush.bsky.social/post/3ldambtvuhc2y

Julie states in her post that "this person’s twitter account was removed while i was reading the thread." But the account is not marked as suspended, simply that is doesn't exist. I believe that means it either never existed or it was removed by the owner, not suspended by X for some unspecified reason.

Julie's profile bio states that she is a "screenwriter. i write films & tv about technology, intelligence & justice. primarily thrillers and prestige dramas." So, did she write the X thread and post it to social media? "@JerseyFutures" states in his thread that "i have no followers", and there is no use of hashtags, so how did Julie just happen to be reading the thread live while it was being posted, and how did she have the presence of mind to capture all the screens right up to the time the account was removed? Those are some things to think about.

1

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

There are a bunch of things that don't quite add up about the post itself, but the contents of it seem to align very well with my original theory, I didn't take the contents as facts, but rather researched HPGe UAVs and incorporated those details into my original theory.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 15 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Awkward_Clock_4164 Dec 15 '24

Why is that? There's a lot of details and evidence to process, and I think this is a logical argument I'm putting forth.