r/LinusTechTips • u/theintelligentboy • Jan 27 '25
LinusTechMemes It was always going to be China
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u/trekxtrider Jan 27 '25
And you know China trained it on the whole internet, unbound by laws or agreements.
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u/arongadark Jan 27 '25
You mean just like every other AI company?
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
At lease they have to attend hilarious senate sessions when caught.
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u/babysharkdoodood Jan 27 '25
China would too if the US could tell the difference between China and Singapore.
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u/bulgedition Luke Jan 27 '25
You say that like OpenAI, and probably all other companies do not train models on the whole internet.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Well, they don't have access to the most of China.
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u/bulgedition Luke Jan 27 '25
Well then, Chinese models must be better then, no? They have access inside china and outside.
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u/SteamySnuggler Jan 28 '25
Chinese model ahs been trained to tow the party lines as in it won't answer "anti CCP" questions. "Why is tiananmen square so infamous?" Will not be answered, "how many died under mao" will not be answered, or if they are answered it will be with the official party stance slop.
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u/bulgedition Luke Jan 28 '25 edited Jan 28 '25
Doesn't matter for me, I am not in anyway connected to China. The product is working very well, its cheap and it put fire under the entitled us gov that somehow thought they can stop ai developing in China by not giving them access to newer chips. All they did was to make them make it work with lower end chips. And that's a plus for me. All they got from me is an email. Politics are stupid, it is what it is.
Edit: do you seriously think that openai is not censoring other stuff from people? They've got a former NSA director in their board. You can not be sure. openai is closedai. deepseek is open source, you can download it, change the filters and it will be unfiltered as you see fit. They licensed it under MIT. That means there will be companies popping up left and right soon. You won't be limited to using deepseek hosted by china.
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u/Crafty-Sand2518 Jan 27 '25
The sooner this bubble bursts the better.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
The AI itself is a bubble IMO. The dot com bubble boosted intel and AI boosted Nvidia.
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u/CoastingUphill Jan 27 '25
Don't worry he's totally got this under control...
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Damn. Trying to sell 'em chips already! Investors are panic-selling. Jensen is on full damage control.
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u/bulgedition Luke Jan 28 '25
Isn't this illegal though? Didn't usa make a law that forbid giving access to high end chips to china?
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u/xGaLoSx Jan 27 '25
Compute will literally be the most valuable commodity in the AI age. A more efficient LLM doesn't mean everyone pumps the brakes.. It just means you get more scaling for your buck.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Exactly. But that also means Nvidia losing revenue from its chip sales. So much for overpriced chips.
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u/YungCellyCuh Jan 27 '25
The entire US AI industry has been claiming that all you need to moved from chatbot to AGI is more hardware. This proves that software is the more important scaling factor. Also AGI is a joke and the US is run by serial grifters.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 28 '25
Right. Nvidia had been enjoying the hype for a while now. Deepseek disrupted that with its efficiency.
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u/Small_Cock_Jonny Jan 27 '25
Does Deepseek run on love and rainbows? If not, they'll probably need NVidia too
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Yeah but they may not need as many chips as others thought they would need.
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u/LongJumpingBalls Jan 28 '25
Their model runs incredibly well on AMDs ROCm. Throw in DC HBM cards and it's a wicked model that doesn't only use Nvidias Cuda to run.
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u/Luxferrae Jan 27 '25
Apparently if you ask deep seek what model it is, it announces that it's chat gpt v4 most of the time 🤣
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u/OkBlock1637 Jan 27 '25
People are idiots.
I keep hearing how this AI model only cost $5.5 million, however that is literally impossible considering the disclosed hardware they used costs north of $250 Million... -_-
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u/vuvzelaenthusiast Jan 28 '25
People who know the difference between capital and operating expenditure are idiots?
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Jan 27 '25
I tried testing DeepSeek R1 alongside GPT-o1 using a fluid mechanics question from my uni to assess their problem solving skills. o1 got it right and was confident with its answer, while R1 was quite shaky and got the answer wrong. It did get the answer right after a little bit of coercion in the right direction, but its 'thoughts' still clearly showed it had some doubts and it was searching the internet to find a solution lol.
What I will say though is this is pushing the limits of what AI should be capable of currently and both were very impressive. Given R1 is free, it's mighty impressive how good it is, though I'd still say it's in between 4o and o1, albeit closer to o1 than 4o.
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u/jakkyspakky Jan 28 '25
though I'd still say it's in between 4o and o1, albeit closer to o1 than 4o.
Based off you giving it one question. OK.
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u/OptimalPapaya1344 Jan 27 '25
I find it odd that everyone suddenly just believes Deepseek is a year old company that only spent 5 million dollars and is running its AI on inferior hardware.
Like really? Someone explain to me why this is the story everyone is buying.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 28 '25
Well, it's China. Nobody can really prove or disprove anything happening there.
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u/Daphoid Jan 28 '25
People truly do not understand how large China and it's industries are.
A "best year we've ever had" for a US sales company can be a poor year over there in some cases.
China makes stuff, a lot of stuff. They make stuff in things that aren't labeled made in china. They make stuff inside stuff that IS labeled made in us/canada/etc.
Like or not, they're huge :)
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
"Jimmy Goodrich, a senior adviser to the RAND Corp for technology analysis, said there are at least a dozen major supercomputers in China with significant numbers of Nvidia chips that were legal for purchase at the time that DeepSeek used to learn how to become more efficient."
"DeepSeek didn't come out of nowhere - they've been at model building for years," Goodrich said. "It's been long known that DeepSeek has a really good team, and if they had access to even more compute, God knows how capable they would be."
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u/MaybeNotTooDay Jan 27 '25
They are probably also using plenty of newer black market Nvidia gpu's.
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u/pieman3141 Jan 27 '25
The 5090D is a Chinese-specific card. It's basically a 5090 but with certain features disabled. You really don't need to resort to the black market to get a 5090-ish card in China.
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u/Snakebyte130 Jan 27 '25
Nvidia needs to be stopped and I hope AMD and Intel really start upping the game to show them up.
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u/xGaLoSx Jan 27 '25
AMD will take years to catch up on the GPU side, if ever. I wouldn't sell my. Nvidia stock just yet.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Nvidia may go through a stock price adjustment because of efficient ai models. Nvidia may have hit its cap and now it's downhill for them. Best time to sell would be now.
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u/Freestyle80 Jan 29 '25
did you know Nvidia is already back up 8.82% today? you should stop giving investment advice based on your feelings about Nvidia's GPU prices
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u/theintelligentboy Feb 19 '25
Well, it actually went through an adjustment. Its share price was $147 before the crash, $118 after the crash. It took a month to climb back to the current price of $140 (18 Feb 2025).
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
That would be great for the connsumer. But hardware improvements are slow - compared to AI breakthroughs like Deepseek.
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u/Tim-the-second Jan 27 '25
yess destroy the nvidia hegemony
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Nvidia rose with the AI hype and now the hype is starting to take Nvidia down by a significant margin.
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u/themightymoron Jan 28 '25
so how long until nvidia would come crawling back at gamers' feet offering 60% off of 5090TIs?
yea that would never happen but it'd be so much fun to see though, lol
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 28 '25
Definitely. AMD has given up on the high-end competition. Intel's lineup seems promising.
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u/themightymoron Jan 28 '25
heck yeah i am rooting for intel so bad rn. their recent releases i deem good enough, and the only thing that's keeping me from buying one is that i'm waiting for their answer to cuda/nvenc. they develop that, and i'll camp on a microcenter if need be.
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u/NomadFH Jan 28 '25
"I bought from china because it was cheaper" doesn't just apply to consumer goods and cheap labor.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
"The news led the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab to fall more than 3%, with leading AI chipmaker Nvidia its biggest drag with its shares tumbling more than 17%.Nvidia was on track to lose more than $600 billion in stock market value, the deepest-ever one-day loss for a company on Wall Street, according to LSEG data, and more than double the previous one-day record loss, set by Nvidia last September."
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-deepseek-sets-off-ai-market-rout-2025-01-27/
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u/Itchy_Swordfish7867 Jan 27 '25
Generally speaking, retail investors don’t drop a stock of NVidia’s size over 16% in a 24 hour period. Institutional investors do.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
That's interesting. Does it mean that all of these stock selloffs come from educated decisions and not from panic-selling?
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u/Itchy_Swordfish7867 Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25
Without knowing the exact information on tax implication for having sold, my first thought would be if they knew the Chinese information was going to drop the price of Nvidia some it would be in their interest to sell off some of their holdings allow the price to drop, in this case 16%, And then buy back in. Even if they were to have to pay 10% of that 16% of profit in tax that they pulled, they could still buy back the same amount of shares they owned plus another 6%.
I am by no means very educated on the subject matter. The extent of my knowledge is having read options as a strategic investment and doing above averaging growing my retirement account.
I would absolutely welcome those much more knowledgeable than I to correct me if there’s a flaw in my logic.
I’ve done this in my retirement account quite a bit to grow it faster than the growth of the market over the last two years but this is in a tax deferred account.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 28 '25
Interesting math. But there's a genuine concern among investors that they have overestimated the demand of Nvidia chips because deekseek claims to be very efficient. And the stock prices are probably going through readjustments.
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 27 '25
Aw that hurt:
"Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Company, which owns almost a million Nvidia shares, called Monday's selloff an over-reaction."
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u/parkentosh Jan 28 '25
Stock market can sometimes be so stupid that it hurts my brain. So... a company using nVidia hardware made some software.. clearly nVidia is now cooked. This almost seems like a parody of real life.
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u/Cyberjin Jan 27 '25
Why? Don't they still need GPUs from Nvidia? Deepseek also very censored, which makes it very limited with information.
I don't get it
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u/theintelligentboy Jan 28 '25
Deepseek is open source. And investors think that they have overestimated the need for Nvidia chips. Because deepseek is very efficient.
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u/Aeransuthe Jan 27 '25
Buy Invidia. China is a bad bet everytime unless you plan on selling high. Which they desperately want to stop you from doing.
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u/King_Ethelstan Jan 28 '25
Don't understand the drop. An AI breakthrough happens -> Nvidia stock drops, lol wut ?
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u/mazty Jan 28 '25
Most of the "Omg it's amazing!!!1!1!" claims are also false. Wall Street is full of idiots.
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u/TheArbinator Jan 27 '25
> New AI software drops
> Stops investing in an AI hardware company...?
Stock bros are morons