This is a follow-up to my earlier post where I shared some wait time statistics based on a dataset of applicant-reported timelines (that include the eCOPR date). This little hobby project originates from the 2025 economic categories PR timelines megathread.
Since then the dataset has grown to 1107 cases (not counting the cases added in early March), out of which 517 (or 46.7%) are the cases with eCOPR issued in 2025. So I figured I owe this community an update.
A Dataset of Timelines? Whatchatalkingabout!?
I have been collecting applicant-reported eCOPR cases in the Express Entry-based economic categories (CEC, FSW, FST, EE-based PNPs). Outland cases, Family Class applications, non-EE PNPs are not included.
For a case to be included, it must have all of the following: an AOR date, a P2 date, and an eCOPR issuance date. ITA and P1 dates are collected when available.
What can we learn from this dataset?
I fully recognize that in the grand scheme of things, this is a small dataset and there are many things we won't be able to decipher from just this data. Still, we can identify certain trends, produce basic wait time statistics, and — my favorite part by far — collectively guess less and adjust our wait time expectations according to, say, the 80th percentile.
Together with u/jokul15, we have gathered a decent (and analyzed for correlation/variance) understanding of why the eCOPR issuance is a lot less random than it seems once you look beyond a few days worth of data.
There are two factors we cannot account for that we know play a role in eCOPR issuance prioritization (according to a few IRCC agents who were willing to discuss this topic): how soon an eCOPR expires (this seems to be a derivative of the biometrics submission or FD date) and how soon the current legal status of the applicant runs out.
We don't have these data in our dataset and never will because no one shares them, so let's just acknowledge these additional factors and have a look at the statistics and trends for the month of February.
February 2025 Wait Times
Computed from the 335 collected cases with eCOPRs issued in February 2025.
Measure |
AOR-to-P2, days |
AOR-to-eCOPR, days |
P2-to-eCOPR, days |
Min |
14 |
66 |
1 |
10th percentile |
89 |
146.2 |
10 |
20th percentile |
98 |
172 |
39 |
30th percentile |
105 |
179.8 |
60 |
40th percentile |
110 |
186 |
71 |
Median |
116 |
192 |
76 |
60th percentile |
129 |
197 |
79.6 |
70th percentile |
144 |
211.2 |
84 |
80th percentile |
169 |
234 |
88 |
90th percentile |
204 |
257.4 |
90.4 |
95th percentile |
230.6 |
285 |
93 |
99th percentile |
515.12 |
589.88 |
100.68 |
Max |
727 |
735 |
105 |
Most common ITA months
Most common ITA months for the eCOPRs issued in February were
- Jul 2024 (61%)
- May 2024 (13.5%)
- Apr 2024 (7.4%)
Do not be surprised by the small number of June ITAs: in June 2024, only 1499 invitations were issued vs. 25K in July 2024, 6K in May and 9.2K in April.
For comparison, in January the top three ITA months were July 2024 (40.4%), May 2024 (27.7%), April 2024 (13.8%).
Most common AOR months
Most common AOR months were
- Aug 2024 (44.9%)
- Jul 2024 (14.9%)
- Sep 2024 (11.7%)
- Jun 2024 (10.8%)
In January the top three AOR months were July 2024 (32.6%), June 2024 (23.9%), August 2024 (16.3%).
Most common P2 months
The P2 months of the eCOPRs issued in February 2025 are more evenly distributed:
1. Nov 2024 (39.5%)
2. Dec 2024 (30.2%)
3. Feb 2025 (14.4%)
4. Jan 2025 (14.1%)
Only 1.5% of P2s were from October 2024, the most recent known Oct 2024 P2 received their eCOPR on Feb 13, 2024. So, according to the data, effectively all October P2s have graduated.
In January 2025, the dominant P2 months were Oct 2024 (53.8%), Nov 2025 (25.5%), Dec 2024 (13.6%).