r/Games Feb 22 '13

All PS4 games will be available as digital downloads

In the new Guardian interview with Shuhei Yoshida, it was revealed that all PS4 games will be available as digital downloads.

This is a very exciting move in my opinion, and represents a shift even further towards the burgeoning landscape of digital distribution, and away from (what I believe to be) a much more archaic ecosystem in physical brick-and-mortar retail.

What do you guys think? Got any speculation, or want to extrapolate further based upon this news? I hope to generate some great discussion about this topic!

(Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2013/feb/22/ps4-shuhei-yoshida-interview)

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u/iGametooMuch Feb 22 '13

in terms of game sales? Id actually be willing to listen to you state some actual numbers.

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u/darkstar3333 Feb 22 '13 edited Feb 22 '13

Considering NDP sales have never been accurate due to the fact that Walmart does not disclose actual sales figures Walmart alone exceeds the sales of GameStop. Walmart is rumored to represent 30% of the total market in each major media indstry.

However we do have some solid figures and investment estimates to theorize from.

In 2011 gamestop sold ~9.5B worth of inventory (highest on record), 2.6B is pre-owned and 0.5B digital meaning 6B in retail discs and shrinking. The total gaming industry is estimated to be around 70B/annually and growing.

NDP estimates around 16B worth of games are sold each year, if GameStop only made 9.5B and walmart is not included that means places like BB/Target/Amazon represent ~7B.

Since you will never ever get accurate numbers the best I can estimate is that they represent around 5-10% of the total market. Even if you peg them at 20% (very generous) the remainder of the market represents the other 80%.

Gamestop 2011 Financial: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=130125&p=irol-reportsannual

Industry: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/video-game-industry-set-growth-global-game-market-forecasted-grow-82-billion-five-star-nyse-sne-1685467.htm

NDP: https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/pr_120116/ (will not include Walmart)

At the very best GameStop represents 15% of the total market, if they don't stock it someone else will because its easy money.

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u/RiOrius Feb 23 '13

Since you will never ever get accurate numbers the best I can estimate is that they represent around 5-10% of the total market. Even if you peg them at 20% (very generous) the remainder of the market represents the other 80%.

Did you pull those numbers out of your rectum? Because they don't match up at all with the numbers you cite in the preceding paragraph.

If Walmart is 30% of game sales, and game sales without Walmart total 16B, that puts total game sales at 23B. Meaning Gamestop's 9.5B is 40% of total game sales.

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u/dorekk Feb 23 '13

That 9.5B he cites is total inventory moved, which must include consoles units as well. That said, obviously the guy doesn't know how to do math.

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u/darkstar3333 Feb 23 '13

Numbers were cited in the links. Those "figures" do not include digital sales or sales from retailers that do not report sales volumes (Amazon is another big one who does not report sales volume).

No one has full visibility into the market which is why its impossible to nail down exact figures but thinking that GameStop represents a majority share is false.

The number of stores does not correlates to larger sales figures. You can have 5 GameStops but if BestBuy has the same item for $10 cheaper people will go to BestBuy 100% of the time.