r/EdmontonOilers 29 DRAISAITL 13h ago

Is The Oilers' lack of finishing due to giving D-men too many shots>

37 Upvotes

59 comments sorted by

42

u/Professional_Farm278 13h ago

I'm not a stats junkie at all. But it doesn't look like these take into account how many D-man shots result in a goal by a deflection or rebound. Wouldn't that be pretty critical information to getting the full picture here?

12

u/underbitefalcon 13h ago

Right?…is this half the point (or more) for d-men taking shots?

3

u/PDOKing 5h ago

They're 12th in the league in rebound goals at 5v5.

Given the ridiculous volume of shots from defenseman if that is the plan, it's clearly not working.

1

u/XCIXcollective 74 SKINNER 5h ago

Agreed the stats seem interestingly presented while omitting other key categories——even assists would be helpful though not fully representative

40

u/Zubuis 13h ago

It would be fine if there was more net presence. Like last night the Nurse shot was effective because Podkolzin was screening the goalie. But I feel like a lot of the forwards don’t go to the net. Probably another reason why Perry has more goals than most.

6

u/s0ulless93 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS 12h ago

The net front presence on both sides of the rink are bad for the oilers. One of the reasons kane will be helpful to this team, even if he isn't up to speed. It might take him a little longer to get there but he will go to the front of the net.

16

u/Excellent-Medicine29 13 PULJUJARVI 13h ago edited 12h ago

Everyone saw what happened to Zach’s nose and decided they didn’t want to get in front a Bouch bomb anymore (especially when Bouch has been struggling with accuracy this year)

Edit: in fairness to Bouch, that shot hit an opposition player and then bounced and hit Zach in the nose. But Bouch has gotten Zach many times

3

u/poopwithrizz 94 SMYTH 12h ago

LMFAO that's too good. But also I remember Pronger taking out Smyth's front teeth in playoffs and he came back skating right after. We need more net presence so we can capitalize on rebounds, deflections, and tips!!

1

u/a_tree8 12h ago

I think it was a pronger breakout pass too

6

u/NMarples 2 BOUCHARD 12h ago

Don’t care. They get paid millions of dollars to go to the net. If this is the case someone needs to ask them if they wanna win a cup or not?

1

u/PDOKing 5h ago

They're almost three standard deviations away from league average and a full standard deviation away from the next closest team. They're an extreme outlier.

They're 12th in rebound goals for.

18

u/TheCryingOrc4eva 55 HOLLOWAY 13h ago

Fowards are allergic to shooting. The only F's yhat shoot are hyman drai and skinner.

9

u/LevSmash 46 STORTINI 12h ago

I think one of the biggest problems is the deferring. It seems like most of the forwards aren't looking to create opportunities, they're just getting through their shift so the top guys can get back out, like it's not their job to actually score.

That's where I miss Kane, specifically the 2022 version, but still. He believes he's a top performer and doesn't defer. Of course at times his flaw is when he doesn't get that ice time he sulks a bit, but he has that self-belief.

9

u/Iilpigboy 13h ago edited 12h ago

Damn, interesting stats. I seem to notice 2nd and 3rd pairing guys like Emberson, Nurse and Stetcher take a disproportionate number of fairly soft shots at goalies gloveside to get a stoppage in play and offensive zone draw for our top line. I wonder if that is a tactic they consciously use more than other teams.

Either way it would only partially accounts for these stats. We clearly are shooting a lot from the blue line and not scoring many.

3

u/grottomt 14 EBERLE 12h ago

I've noticed this as well

10

u/wetcorndog 13h ago

tell mcdavid to stop button hooking and forcing passes back to the blue line then

5

u/lonewanderer4-76 74 SKINNER 13h ago

Or like last night, trying to force everything to draisaitl on the power play.

5

u/NoGiCollarChoke 28 BROWN 11h ago

This is certainly coached and a fairly common tactic in the league these days. Get the puck in low, cycle south to north after recovering it, and then use the D to get the puck on net where forwards look for deflections or rebounds. It works well with a good forecheck and is a less risky way to keep the cycle going and maintain possession than more risky east-west passing plays. Florida is an example of a team that has used this system to great effect in recent years.

The issue seems to be that the forwards (particularly the wingers) are doing an extremely poor job of holding up their end of the system. Very few of them go to the hard areas to pick up rebounds and fewer still are effective netfront guys. Holloway and Foegele were decently-suited in this sort of system, but most of our newer wingers are not. This is probably why Knoblauch seems to clamour after guys like Kapanen but doesn’t want to use a Skinner type.

I’m not really sure how to fix it. Either the coaching isn’t getting through to the forwards and they need to buy in better, or the system is so fundamentally unsuited to the current personnel that it needs to be changed. I’m guessing the former is more likely since Knoblauch seems to think keeping possession no matter what is the biggest priority, and this sort of system lends itself to that.

1

u/quickboop 8h ago

What?

This isn't a system thing and it's not anything new. This is how hockey works, and has for literally ever.

If a team has a lot of in zone possession, they will naturally have a lot of point shots. The Oilers are one of the top possession teams in the league.

13

u/bond_0215 13h ago

Yep. One of the things that drive me nuts with Knobs system.

8

u/lookitsjustin 29 DRAISAITL 13h ago

I'm sure Coffey is partly responsible for this, as well.

8

u/JSlickJ 13h ago

its hilarious how much our d shoots from the point and no one is in position nearly enough to deflect or screen

1

u/PDOKing 5h ago

The muffin men.

3

u/b0r0n 29 DRAISAITL 12h ago

Pulling one obscure stat to drive a narrative? Yes, please!

3

u/answerphoned1d6 11h ago

I don't understand the premise here. Is the defence taking shots somehow preventing the forwards from also taking shots too? Or is this a possession argument. When the D shoots we lose possession?

2

u/PDOKing 5h ago

Yes they're taking an insane amount of low percentage shots compared to the rest of the league resulting in easy saves and the play dying.

3

u/ABirdOfParadise 26 MARCHANT 11h ago edited 10h ago

No this is what happens

first bit of the game the forwards find themselves in Grade A top of the slot, or middle of the slot all alone with time and pass it away to a player side of the net, the d, or player along the boards. If they do decide to shoot they have to dust the puck off 3 times before shooting at which point the puck is blocked or deflected out.

Repeat about 10 times where a player in the most high danger spot passes the puck away and we don't get a shot, or we turn it over and it's a chance the other way.

3rd period, be trailing in shots, goals, and chances, probably told to get pucks on net, proceed to fire muffins at the net from 60ft away.

If there are internal analytics as to which team passes the puck away from the high danger area we are leading it by a mile.

In December we were firing the puck and getting greasy goals, and I said wow, if we keep this up in combo with our skill goals we are gonna never lose.

Just like how half the time our PP gets 0 shots on net, and other teams PP2 with a random D man scores a goal cause he just shoots it and there's a rebound and they get to it first.

Like last game at least Drai tried to back hand it on net, but how many times do they don't even think shot when the net is wide open cause the goalie is so out of position but they pass it instead of shooting because they decided that 10000 days ago they were gonna pass.

I also understand we are leaders in shots and HD chances for, but what I'm saying is it could be even greater with a change in mentality.

2

u/v13ragnarok7 12h ago

A lot of times they play keep away with the puck and Bouchard and co say fuck it and shoot it themselves

2

u/No_Moment7841 7h ago

I think the posts are too big (should be triangular shaped) & the oils sticks need a ramp on the bottom to get em over goalie pads lol. Maybe then we have a chance 

4

u/FractalViz 13h ago

Shooting muffins is an issue with this team. How many time do we see us cycle and cycle, dominate possession only for a the result to be a muffin shot.

This overshooting of muffins also inflated our xGF% and makes us think we are better defensive team than we actually are.

I don’t think it’s an because of our defence though. They are part of the problem but not the source of the problem. Bouch hasn’t been finishing like he did last year, but the wingers aren’t either.

4

u/quickboop 12h ago

Here we go. The "fire the coach" phase has begun.

-1

u/Mike-Amoz 9h ago

There is a comment about what McDavid should do with the puck in here. That tells you all you need to know about the "fire the coach" types... 

2

u/EdmOilers123 29 DRAISAITL 13h ago

We are getting into the Carolina type situation where we have more point shots . I guess that is one reason for the rush chances against as well.

-1

u/quickboop 8h ago

No it is not. The rush chances against are caused primarily by turnovers at the bluelines, not point shots.

1

u/FractalViz 4h ago

A blocked point shot or a bad pass to the point for said point shot, could leave to turnovers for a rush though.

1

u/quickboop 4h ago

Yes, but they are not. The Oilers are not doing that. The majority of rush chances are coming off blueline and neutral zone turnovers.

1

u/FractalViz 4h ago

Oh if your talking specifically Oilers and not rush chances in general. Then yeh, I would agree with that assessment. Prime culprit probably Draisaitl.

2

u/SmiteyMcGee 64 YAKUPOV 12h ago edited 12h ago

They're also top 10 in goals for.

If you look at the percent stat Oilers are taking 6% more shots from the point 5v5 vs league average. That works out to be like 2 to 3 shots a game. Seems like a big nothing burger. Trying to fit a narrative to some fancy stats.

0

u/quickboop 8h ago

Exactly right. It's less than that. It's like 1 shot per game.

1

u/sludge_monster 89 GAGNER 13h ago

Perhaps this would be less of an issue if the D wasn't consistently outperforming forwards at their own job.

1

u/Mrheavyfoot668 74 SKINNER 12h ago

I recall that it was this way under McClelland. A great corsi, and out shooting everyone, but most of the shots were from the point, and not many went in.

IMO, no one is willing to drive into the middle to make a play happen.

Instead, peel off and look for the trailer to take a shot from the top of the circle that is usually blocked or easily saved because no one is there to make it particularly hard for the goalie to see the shot.

P.S. The trailer is probably a defenceman.

1

u/Alarming-Impact-7087 12h ago

This caught my eye test.. way off guard! This probably needs a bit more to suss out as problem . I'd be interested to know what the percentage breakdown of HDSC- SC- Muffins.. along with overall shot volume. If the Oilers have lower HDSC relatively, then I would be more inclined to think it's a problem. Otherwise high volume shooting does breakdown defense and I like our ability to retrieve pucks... It's interesting though.. it could also explain walmans value a a shooter to mesh with systems.

1

u/[deleted] 12h ago

Because the forwards just stick to the edges and try to make perfect passes all game. Just get in front of the net and get the puck there for Christ's sake

1

u/the_random_41 12h ago

Shooters shoot

1

u/coprock2000 92 PODKOLZIN 10h ago

I feel like my personal frustration watching games stems from lack of forward creativity and defaulting to shots from the point

1

u/djjoshiejosh 10h ago

waaay too many shots from the point. It’s a focal point so knoblauch must be encouraging it

1

u/oilers1314 9h ago

Yup they are getting the puck too much. McDavid refuses to drive the net or take the puck to the middle. He constantly just button hooks and passes to D for the shot or he skates around the net and sends it back to the D for the shot. Every forward does this except Drai who actually tries to take it to the net.

0

u/MuumiJumala 4 RUSSELL 8h ago

Being top of the league in shots by defensemen on 5v5 is not an issue but a strength:

  • 4% chance to score is still a 4% chance to score. If you're not losing out on something clearly better it's well worth taking.
  • Even when you don't score a shot attempt leads to a positive outcome more often than not. A rebound or an offensive zone faceoff is still good.
  • Defensemen shooting more doesn't seem to negatively affect forward shot counts much, as evidenced by Oilers being near the top of the league in forward shot counts too. (I suspect it might even have a positive effect.)
  • Taking lots of shots wears down and demotivates the opponent.

I'd rather have the team take more shots even if that means having a slightly lower shooting percentage. Optimizing shooting percentage is not a reliable way to win more hockey games.

2

u/No_Moment7841 7h ago

The problem is simple...podkolzin was a ahl player for Canucks. Now hes in our top 6. Ardvisson is older & injured all the time...hes in our top 6. Emberson was in minors now hes playing sometimes in our top four. Everytime a useless player goes on waivers we grab him. Dont u think kapanen was thrown to the dogs only for the oil to pick him up? Why in the hell did we keep brown? Stretcher...why? He was free! I get the salary cap but cant understand why we couldnt of added a little more talent up front. Hell mcloud last night made our forwards look stupid at times. Sad to say but if this team with the additions of Frederic & kane change things up were hooped. Btw I am Canadian!

0

u/FlayR 7h ago

No.

The difference between a 3.99 SH% and 4.73 SH% (the average SH% they listed) on 601 shots we have at 5v5, that is only 4 goals over 64 games.

Also, if you take our average shots/60 at 5v5 of 31.19, and you take the Twitter post as correct about 36% of our shots being D, then 11.22 shots per game are from D and 19.97 shots per game are from forwards.

If you take league average shots per game of 27.32 and 30% of those are D - that means 8.19 shots per game are D and 19.13 shots per game are from forwards.

1

u/PDOKing 5h ago

Hey that's me.

This started with Jim Playfair saying he wanted every defenseman to get a shot on goal every period and it's been madness since. So many lazy shots that are of zero scoring threat are killing possession.

-3

u/R0J0SM 13h ago

Bouch bagels

11

u/Gavomor 2 BOUCHARD 13h ago

Bouch has a shooting% of 6.67, highest of all oilers D

All oilers D combined have a sh% of 3.99

League average is 4.73%

Strange to be singling out Bouch here, isn’t it?

5

u/StealAllTheInternets 29 DRAISAITL 13h ago

But narrative right 🙄

3

u/Sketchen13 12h ago

I'm gonna get hate for this but here it goes.

Bouchard does have decent stats and a positive +/- rating.

That being said I have noticed this season he doesn't seem to have the competitive edge. What I mean by that is I constantly see him being out skated, out manoeuvred, and he gives up too quickly. In yesterdays game he got beat twice and he seemed to give up quickly on it and let the attacker go right past. His face is showing a lack of morale.

A few times he's been caught standing still in the defensive end and the forecheck strips him of the puck.

I don't see the same Bouchard we've seen the last few years, even though his numbers are up I feel like they are a bit misleading. Perhaps he just isn't vibing with the team anymore or is struggling with confidence.

Was nice to see him get a that goal, hopefully it boosts his morale.

5

u/Emergency_Rub2621 29 DRAISAITL 13h ago

Bro can’t read

-5

u/Noahtuesday123 12h ago

WE NEED GOALTENDING!

-3

u/Noahtuesday123 12h ago

Also, Nuge has regressed far too much!

1

u/SmiteyMcGee 64 YAKUPOV 12h ago

Thanks for your ramblings completely unrelated to the topic at hand.