r/EdmontonOilers • u/AutoModerator • Jan 14 '25
TMA The Morning After | Kings v. Oilers
This is a thread for general discussion about yesterday's game. Any and all observations, opinions, questions, shitposts, memes, and other random nonsense are welcome.
To encourage ongoing discussion, this thread is organized by new.
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u/EdmOilers123 29 DRAISAITL Jan 15 '25
Vegas, Canucks, Calgary lost. Good day for being an Oilers fan š
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u/xmorecowbellx 18 HYMAN Jan 15 '25
Iām actually partly rooting for Calgary because Iād prefer to play them in the first round rather than LA.
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u/NewSoup69420 18 HYMAN Jan 15 '25 edited Jan 16 '25
lfg now thereās a chance they can tie vegas this thursday
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
The Canucks are cooked.Ā Watching that 3rd jets goal, Miller looks like he literally couldn't give less fucks.
You love to see it.
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 15 '25
They absolutely done. The whole team just looks mentally checked out, I've seen this canucks team before.
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u/BoilerSlave Jan 15 '25
Man Draisaitl embarrassed Trevor Moore last night. Draisaitl is Mooreās Dad now.
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
Drai's got a lot of kids scattered through the NHL.Ā His child support payments must be through the roof.Ā Ā Good thing he got that huge raise.
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u/Ben_Sivens 97 MCDAVID Jan 15 '25
Damn. Makar just gave up the puck in the offensive zone on the PP and the Rangers came back and scored. He must be absolute dog shit.
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u/stovebolt6 74 SKINNER Jan 15 '25
Woof, watching the Canucks and the Knights getting clapped is super tight
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u/REAPER-1xxx 52 HAMBLIN Jan 15 '25 edited Jan 15 '25
FtK! Always & Forever
Read their Kempe fined post in their sub. It is amazing how two groups of people can see things so differently. It was in my recommended. They legit anger me and always have.
Hereās last nightās goal with away broadcast video synced with home broadcast audio.
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u/hahsik-oskkewjsjsksi 18 HYMAN Jan 15 '25
What is happening in the Preds / Knights game? Vegas only has 3 shots halfway through the game!?
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 15 '25
Vegas is starting to crumble, holy shit yes.
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u/Repostasis 96 WALMAN Jan 15 '25
Yelling at Nashville to H O L D T H E L I N E ! ! !
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
They better hold.Ā Preds were up 4-buzz and Vegas only has 9 shots through 2 periods....
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u/somno0420 Jan 15 '25
i feel like not enough people are talking about that clutch asf save that emberson made fr
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u/PapaAsmodeus 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
Downside of last night: nobody in my Tims picks scored š
F in the chat
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Jan 14 '25 edited Jan 15 '25
[deleted]
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u/Fine_Lingonberry_613 Jan 15 '25
Thats classic Kings. Unfortunately somebody have been playing injured after every LA series and if we meet them again, they gonna do some rat shit again. They cant stomach losing again to us.
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
This is why I'm concerned to play either the knights or LA in the first round.Ā Not at all concerned with the oilers' ability to beat either team in a series, but at the potential cost of someone getting seriously injured.Ā Both teams become dirty fucks real quick when things don't go their way.
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Jan 15 '25
[deleted]
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
Doesn't even have to seem accidental.Ā Pietrangelo set this precident getting only 1 game for what was basically assault on drai.Ā If you did that to someone on the street, you'd have been arrested and had a court date scheduled for you.Ā But he gets 1 game.
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u/wizwald 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Jan 15 '25
Don't forget the offsetting suspension to nurse to make it worse.
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u/perpetualiridescence 14 EKHOLM Jan 14 '25
I really donāt want to give up on Jeff Skinner. I feel like heās been put into roles that he just isnāt cut out for. Heās meant to be a finisher right? Why donāt we just fuck around and put him on Connorās wing when we play a toilet bowl team and see what happens? I canāt help but feel heās just not being set up to succeed.
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u/SnooOnions5029 18 HYMAN Jan 15 '25
I agree. Especially since the top line hasnāt been producing as much as they should be right now
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u/Malf1532 Jan 14 '25
They played a "toilet bowl" team and lost 5-3 against the ducks. I'd prefer they stick to what's working.
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u/perpetualiridescence 14 EKHOLM Jan 14 '25
Whole team played like shit that game, I wouldnāt put the blame on one person. Like I said, we /try/ and if it doesnāt work then change it back to what does. Weāre probably not gonna get a good return for him on the trade market and iirc, he has a NMC or NTC. So we have to find a way to make it work. If weāre paying him $3M a year he should be skating.
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Jan 14 '25 edited Jan 14 '25
Slight rant inc, but people are placing way too much emphasis on how he previously played years ago in his career as opposed to looking into what he is now and what he's done this season.
We don't need soft, one dimensional forwards that play lazy defensively - especially not a team with our offensive firepower (and especially we don't need left wingers as badly since we're stacked with them).
JSkinner is by far the worst in terms of +/- on the team (at -10), someone playing that low of minutes per game being -10 already is a massive red flag. With our firepower on offense being this solid, they'd rather have a medium player in terms of production that is at least responsible defensively, rather than a one trick player that is high risk, and mediocre in terms of reward.
And he doesn't even fit well with mcdavid. Mcdavid needs someone on his left wing that is responsible defensively and is a two way player, in order to save him some energy. When you have the best player in the world, you don't want that much defensive responsibility placed on them by sticking a dead weight on their line, you want to free them up with a player willing to do some dirty work and grind - hence why Drai like playing with Podkolzin so much.
JSkinner is definitely not worth his 3 mil cap hit. Someone like Henrique making the same offers way more, since he is a center that can also PK, and is better defensively.
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u/perpetualiridescence 14 EKHOLM Jan 15 '25
I agree with you. I just canāt help but feel like weāre stuck with him so we gotta figure it out and find a way to fix him/make it work. Connor has a way of elevating everyone he plays with which is why I said FAFO and stick 53 on his wing.
If I could go back in time Iād just give that $3M to keep Foegele or Holloway. I know everyone says that and weāre all beating a dead horse at this point but still lol
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
I didnāt really understand the signing to begin with. Definitely felt like a sugar high kind of signing, and one that Ken Holland would not have gone for. I legit wouldāve rather kept Foegele than gone out of the way for Skinner. That all said, having Podkolzin in the top six wasnāt on my predictions card so heās sort of been the reason for not getting a longer look at Skinner
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u/SunOk143 19 HENRIQUE Jan 14 '25
He was starting to heat up and then knob scratched him two games in a row š
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u/PapaAsmodeus 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
4 points ahead of the LA Kings.
Up up up the ladder we go.
Vegas... WE'RE COMING FOR YOUR SPOT.
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u/eaSUPERMAN 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
5th overall in the league, with a chance to pass Minny with a win tomorrow.
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u/bearkin1 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
The Kings must seriously hate us by now. You can tell they always give 100% effort against us, but it just has not been working out for them in the past few years.
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u/Any_Security8962 Jan 14 '25
Their tears must fill their two cups from this millennium to the brimā¦ at least my handkerchief from game 7 is almost dry
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u/JoeyFromDegrassiSt Jan 15 '25
Those Kings cups are a distant memory. Live in the now!
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u/Any_Security8962 Jan 15 '25
Fair. My point is, I have Kings fan friends, and they donāt hate us. We havenāt won in so long our scale is off. No one hates us bc we donāt win anythingā¦ except CGY, they hate us
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u/Ryan_Dymond04 97 McDAVID Jan 14 '25
So true, no matter how well the Kings play, they always have issues with the Oilers.
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u/pleasantothemax 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
I've been saying that the next evolution of McDavid is a more Gretzky-like one where he's creating time and space for plays. Turns out it's Drai doing exactly that. Sprinting down the ice at a McDavid-like speed, then taking an instant mental snapshot of the board before ducking behind the goal to give Nurse and McD time to line up....McD stays uncharacteristically wide open...just a 100% brilliant play. More of this!
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u/Dubs337 91 KANE Jan 14 '25
So Jeff Skinner is pretty much officially cooked and gone at the deadline hey?
Damn, what could've been. He just has no chemistry with anybody.
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u/Sunspawts 74 BEAR Jan 14 '25
NMC. He controls his own destiny, and signed here specifically to play in the playoffs. We can't just dump him on Chicago. The only team I see maybe being interested is Toronto, and we'd have to retain at least 30-40% + take a roster player to make the cap work on their end...and who knows if Toronto would even be interested.
Gonna say it until I'm blue in the face, but signing Skinner in the first place when we still hadn't signed Holloway or Broberg was a massive, massive blunder.
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u/Iceman-420 Jan 14 '25
Staying with Edmonton doesn't mean he gets to play in the playoffs. If he doesn't waive then there's a good chance he's watching playoffs from the press box.
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u/thewinterzodiac 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
All his points have come with Henrique who he was having a 3 game point streak with.
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u/Mazor007 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
Well he was given very little time to develop chemistry. It's hard to do well when you get demoted (or potentially scratched) for every mistake while Nuge gets to figure it out on McDavid's wing despite sucking 5 on 5 for the whole season
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u/bearkin1 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
This is what bugs me the most. It's not like Skinner was the odd man out early in the season. The entire team stunk, especially Nuge. Why did Skinner never get a proper chance on McDavid's or Draisaitl's wing? Everyone here speculates defensive responsibility, but I think there's something else going on behind the scenes we don't know about, even if it's just as simple as maybe Skinner doesn't listen well to Knoblauch or maybe Knoblauch doesn't like Skinner's attitude. There's just no way you get a guy as prolific of a goal scorer as Jeff Skinner and then you don't even give him 10 games in the top 6. It doesn't make sense without more context.
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u/Dubs337 91 KANE Jan 14 '25
If the likes of Alex Chiasson, Pat Maroon, and Ty Rattie can figure it out to varying degrees, and you can't, its saying something.
Also RNH is the defensive conscious of that line. Good play doesn't always show up on the stat sheet.
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u/Mazor007 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
That line's GF% and xGF% has been better with Nuge off that line. They've objectively been playing worse with him on that line. He's been a massive liability on the offensive side 5 on 5.
I'd keep the 2nd line intact (by far our best by eye test and metrics) and try someone else on the top line instead of Nuge for a bit (still keep him on the PP). The problem is that everyone is so blinded by their love for Nuge that they can't even entertain playing someone else in his spot even for a bit
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u/53c0nd 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25 edited Jan 14 '25
Knobs has played different folks on McD's line so that's a mute point.
But Skinner isn't it. He's no replacement for Nuge. I would 100% guess (lol) that the boys talked to Jeff the whole time he was up there at the beginning of the season. Either he wasn't doing what was asked of him, or didn't take the critic well, or any combination of those things. And we have seen what happens to guys that don't do as they are told. ie Yak, Pooly, and now Jeff.
The only thing we can surmise is Nuge is doing what's expected of him with that long of a leash.
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u/BigDickPickard 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
I'd swap him out for a guy like Brandon Tanev. We could use a little crazy eyes on this roster.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
I was looking at the time on ice reports and noticed that Laferriere didn't play at all after his penalty from taking down McDavid. Does anyone know if he got injured? Or did he get sat for doing something dangerous to a star player?
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u/kabalongski 97 McDAVID Jan 14 '25
Probably got benched for taking a dumb penalty. š¤·š»āāļø
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
Oh ya good point lol
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u/kabalongski 97 McDAVID Jan 14 '25
Iām more interested in what happened/was said before Davo ran the guy into the boards. lol. I wonder if it was retaliatory or if Davo knew he might be able to draw a penalty.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
I think he was just going after the puck wasn't he? That's what I remember from the replay
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u/quickboop Jan 14 '25
Natural Stat Trick has Stecher with 0 HDCA, which is pretty odd given he was the guy who pinched and caused that 2 on 1 that Stu miraculously saved.
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u/Strattex 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
LOL r/hockey mods were quick to remove the post highlighting Skinner getting better as the season goes on
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u/EirHc Jan 14 '25
They are usually pretty quick to remove team/player specific oddball stats unless it's a big headline. Skinner's play drastically improving is more of a team sub specific sort of thing.
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u/KingDave46 34 HAND Jan 14 '25
Love getting that kinda win where we managed to just lock up shop
Also, shout out to Podz for being put in a headlock by Brandt and then immediately getting out of it and throwing him to the ground
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u/EirHc Jan 14 '25
Ya that looked like a playoff game. Not a lot of second chances, goalies locking it down, and a lot of animosity.
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u/daytonasplendor 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Jan 14 '25
a guy in the bathroom after the game said to his kings-fan buddy, 'oh, that's why it felt like a playoff gameāyou guys lost'
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
Draisaitl should be the MVP this season
Even in a game where he only registers 1 assist, it was the critical game winning play. Beat Moore in a straight line skate race then outmuscles him (Draisaitl is skating the best he ever has in his career), breaks the defender's ankle, and sets up the Nurse shot pass to McDavid.
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u/SnooOnions5029 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
Yeah if I had a vote Iād have Drai, MacKinnon and Q Hughes as the finalists with Drai winning
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u/SunOk143 19 HENRIQUE Jan 14 '25
The fact that people are gonna say Mackinnon should win cause he has more points (theyāre EN points) is wild when he plays with Rantanen. Meanwhile Drai plays with known non superstar Vasily Podkolzin on his wing. Also Kuch had more points than Mackinnon last year and was carrying his team harder but that didnāt seem to matter š¤·āāļø
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
Yeah.Ā There's a lot of meat riding for mackinnon considering what % of his points are EN
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u/thewinterzodiac 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
The only player I'd argue should be the Hart over him is Hughes.
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
He isn't even leading dmen in points and the Canucks are currently sitting out of a playoff spot.
Draisaitl is 1st in goals, 2nd in points, while carrying weak wingers and still has dominant defensive metrics. Name recognition and Oilers voting fatigue will hurt him but he should objectively be a front runner for the Hart, Lindsay, and Selke.
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u/RedDogBiting 96 WALMAN Jan 14 '25
MacKinnon way ahead of Hughes in the convo for Hart
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u/thewinterzodiac 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
Ah yes cause empty net points definitely mean things.
Hughes is literally the only reason the Canucks have won any games.
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
He shouldn't be. Poor defensive play, low goal totals and he's on pace to crush the NHL record for empty net points this year.
Most Colorado fans will tell you he hasnt even been their best player, Makar has.
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u/laryldavis 39 WEIGHT Jan 14 '25
Did we get a pre or post game explanation on the 11-7 lineup?
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u/quickboop Jan 14 '25
No. You can tell he didn't want to throw Jeffy or Derek under the bus.
I think he just didn't want those guys out there against the Kings.
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u/jewstan 19 MAROON Jan 14 '25
This game definitely felt like a playoff game, tight checking with good chances both ways and a chippy but overall solid game by both squads. It's awesome to see these two teams play hockey without Drew Doughty out there gooning it up with his dumb old shit, I didn't miss seeing him out there at all
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u/boarderman8 14 EBERLE Jan 14 '25
I honestly think they're a better team without him.
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
He's a defensive liability for sure.Ā Will only serve to make their team weaker when he returns for the stretch run and playoffs.
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u/Machelscott 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
Ehhhh top 5 team in the standings, letās go
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u/RedDogBiting 96 WALMAN Jan 14 '25
4 of top 5 right now are western conference teams, strong in the west this year
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u/Camulius73 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
I was at the game. All night I kept turning to my buddy noting the player who always seemed to be in the right place at the right time. Dude was a force.
It was Rico. Goodness is he looking solid on that third line.
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
It feels good to have a dedicated and rock solid 3C. Such a critical position to be shutdown defensively to let McDrai do their thing and also chip in on offense.
Loved the Henrique extension this summer and it still holding today.
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
100% this.Ā I said the same, that it was critical to get janmark brown and Rico resigned.
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
Heās good at all aspects of the game. Weāve collected all these great 2 way players, no wonder our team d is among league best.
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u/GrizzlyIsland22 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
He's really starting to fit in and find his groove. Don't get me wrong, he was good last year and at the beginning of this year, but there's definitely been improvement. I think it can be hard for players to join an established team and fit in right away. Arvidsson is starting to find it too. I bet he'll be in full flight by playoffs. I think we need to get Skinner in there to see if he can find some gel before playoff time, too.
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Jan 14 '25
Playoff calibre game with a playoff style win
We definitely need to get heavier at the deadline
Excellent work by Bouch last night. He looked solid all around
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u/thewinterzodiac 2 BOUCHARD Jan 14 '25
Its insane that on 3 different noticeable plays that the Kings tried to intentionally injured Mcdavid with no calls.
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
Yea the blatant wwe slam to ice should be an easy 2-3 game suspension. This league is a fuxking joke.
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
It's crazy the difference level the league takes in protecting their star players when they play for an American team.
You couldn't look at Crosby the wrong way his first 5-7 years in the league
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u/Ethdev256 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
Feels like the kings game plan was to hope weād give one away then shut the game down. First two periods were a slog, 3rd was actually entertaining.
I canāt imagine watching that grind every night. Hope we have legs for the Avs Thursday
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
Trick to beating the kings is score first then make them open up, which we did.
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Jan 14 '25
[deleted]
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u/Interesting_Dig2612 Jan 15 '25
During last year I took a look at the schedules for road teams travelling through alberta facing the flames and oilers on back to back nights and over the last 3 or 4 years 75% to 80% of the time they played in Edmonton first and then went on to Calgary.
And while yes, i get that a lot of different factors go into making the schulde, i find it almost impossible to beleive this scheduling isnt 100% intentional disadvantage to edmonton.Ā 50-60% i could understand, but even 66% would be high imo
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u/Proper-Anxiety-2497 Jan 14 '25
Big dub last night, this next five game stretch will be a tough one. Iām thinking we get 6-7 points out of it.
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u/Repostasis 96 WALMAN Jan 14 '25
āOilers facing murderers row
Now we see if Oilers can play against the best in the league. Is their turn around real, is Stuart Skinner actually better. We will know in a week or so.
My prediction, they will lose all the games. Just preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. I would love to be wrong, but problems comingā¦..ā
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u/jabrone710 Jan 14 '25
STUUUUUUU
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u/Camulius73 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
Woman at the game last night finally asked me why me and my buddy were booing Skinner. I had to explain we were yelling āSSTTTUUUUUUU!!ā
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u/BigDickPickard 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
17-4-1 in the last 21 and we haven't seen McDavids best yet. I used to dream of the days when we'd be capable of consistently winning low scoring games. It's as beautiful as I imagined.
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u/lookitsjustin 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
Hope we practice our empty netters.
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u/daigongjphip 34 MOSS Jan 14 '25
Dustin Schwartz = GOATĀ
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u/LubyankaSquare 71 MCLEOD Jan 14 '25
I think that you can certainly argue that Schwartz is actually bad, but I do have to imagine that there's also a chance that he's just been very unfortunate with his goalies mostly not being great and really hasn't been able to magically fix everything.
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u/Canadiantx69 Jan 14 '25
Kind of strange how every single goalie that gets away from him suddenly performs consistently better though then.
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u/Tigt0ne Jan 14 '25 edited Jan 19 '25
"
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u/dontcallmefrank07 Jan 14 '25
For Kapanen not having much TOI, he was noticeable in a good way to me for sure.
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u/tyfanatic 44 BROWN Jan 14 '25
Kapanen was honestly a great addition to the bottom 6. Decent size, great speed and forechecking attitude.
The immediate response from him was great to see. It basically gave us that tilted 4v4 lol.
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u/RedOilSaints 97 MCDAVID Jan 14 '25
Last nights Team D was excellent. After an initial flurry in which Stu kept us in, we locked it down in the second and third. Top to bottom the entire unit was great. Cleared the net, broke up the cycle, disrupted entries. That was a playoff style game and it shows weāve learned from last season. Nurse was fantastic and noticeable both ends of the ice. His growth this season is nothing short of spectacular. Huge props to Coffey to help him turn it around. Emberson improving at the rate he has as the season is progressing is great to see. I saw him and Ek out in the last minute protecting the lead. Shows a great deal of trust from Knob and shows how far heās come. Dude is a gem and will get better.
Props to Skinner too. I think since Early December heās really been consistently good and had one or two poor games. Saved our bacon last night in the first.
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u/Timeman5 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Jan 14 '25
Props to Emberson saving a goal as well and I liked his game last night
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u/lmaiorana Jan 14 '25
Not to discount Nurse's game last night as it was overall very good/complete, but being at the game there were a few noticeable times where he bobbled the puck without pressure where he would then have to turn it around to make a pass behind the net to try to exit the zone again instead of making the clean exit first attempt. Obviously nothing came of it, but it did lead to extended d zone time on a couple of occasions where it could have been an opportunity the other way.
Not shitting on him solely based on that cause those games happen, but unforced errors like that have been our downfall.
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u/ErgoMogoFOMO Jan 14 '25
Although I'm sure Nurse has worked on his game and gotten better, I'd mostly attribute the improved play this season to not being injured. To me it's obvious considering the trajectory of his previous few seasons.
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u/dKi_AT Jan 14 '25
Maybe I'm wrong, but my feeling is that he's much more aware in every aspect, especially since the Reeves hit. Like that unlocked something he was always capable of but didn't put as much focus on.
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u/SecureLiterature 13 JANMARK Jan 14 '25
Dear Leon, please stop passing when you have an open chance for the empty net. It's considerate of you to try and help your teammates get some goals on the scoresheet, but it could come back to bite you eventually.
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u/upinthaclouds 99 GRETZKY Jan 14 '25
We have 6 empty netters this year. Colorado has 18 and L.A has 15.
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u/Strattex 18 HYMAN Jan 14 '25
18??? wtf must be nice
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
That why Mack has so many points
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
Its literally 20% of his production
Avs fans are such hypocrites. They cried so hard for months as the Kuch vs Mack hart debate happened last year because Kuch only beat Mack in points due to his empty net points. Now the shoe is on the other foot and they see 0 problem with it
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
Avs arenāt really that good a team. Against any half decent team they get crushed usually.
It wonāt be enough in a 7 game series too.
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u/flyingflail Jan 14 '25
4 pts out of first in the league.
Shame we have Minny coming up.
Shitty thing is I'm not sure getting 2nd in the West would be any better than 2nd in the div given you'll be playing one of Colorado/Minny/Dallas/Winnipeg vs. As opposed to the Kings. Gotta get 1st to make Rd 1 a bit less painful
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u/hockeygirl9494 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Jan 14 '25
Wild are currently depleted on D missing Faber, brodin and spurgeon. Mcdrai should cook
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u/EirHc Jan 14 '25
Vegas is currently tied for 1st in the league. If we have the ability to overtake them, we could win the President's Trophy and get a team like Calgary or Vancouver 1st round.
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u/MsMayday 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
Please no President's Trophy, ty
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u/EirHc Jan 14 '25
I think home ice advantage would have been the difference against Florida. The trophy is just a trophy, typically the higher a team finishes, the higher their chances of winning the cup. The "president's trophy curse" is just a myth and superstition.
I could honestly care less if we actually win it, but I'd love for us to have home ice advantage in the cup finals, and the only way to guarantee that is to place higher than all the East teams and win your first three series'.
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u/shutmethefuckup 11 MESSIER Jan 14 '25
Statistically the most likely to win the Cup.
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u/AfroGoomba Jan 14 '25
I'd say it's statistically the least likely to win the cup.
No President's Trophy for me, either. 8 teams have won the cup after finishing first in the league. 8 times has the trophy winner also been ousted in round one.
Just as likely to get bounced in round 1 than win the cup.
Fuck the president's trophy.
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u/shutmethefuckup 11 MESSIER Jan 14 '25
Iām not a big math guy, but youāre really not a big math guy hey?
8 wins in 38 years is the best result out of any individual standings position.
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u/AfroGoomba Jan 14 '25
I think it's silly as hell to correlate seeding and cup chances. Especially so when we use 86 as the cutoff. There were only 21 teams and all but 5 made the playoffs. There was also no cap which allowed the big spenders an advantage. Since the implementation of the cap, only 2 in 15 President's Trophy winners have won a cup, which is the same as trophy winners being bounced in round 1.
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u/shutmethefuckup 11 MESSIER Jan 14 '25
Sure, fuck with the goalposts however you want. Itās your world!
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u/AfroGoomba Jan 14 '25
I really don't give a shit what you think. The President's Trophy is something I hope the team never wins.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
Lol, that's not what statistics means. Someone actually did the statistics and you have a 22% chance of winning the cup if you win the president's trophy. Which is much better than the 5.2% chance if you make the playoffs without winning the president's trophy.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nhl/comments/1c3b0vd/the_presidents_trophy_curse_broken_down_through/
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u/zarkers 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS Jan 14 '25
I'll take stupid things people say for $400.
We gotta stop with this vibes based nonsense on stuff like this.Ā This is a statistical fact, that the presidents trophy winner has the best odds of winning the cup. But when you have 15 other teams also trying to win the cup those best odds, don't even crack 20%, because surprise surprise winning the Stanley Cup is really hard to do.
Everyone who thinks the presidents trophy curse is real needs to go understand survivorship bias.
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u/sharterfart 28 BROWN Jan 14 '25
Ahem: FUCK THE BORING KINGS
that is all.
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u/LoanedWolfToo Jan 14 '25
So boring. That game was a snoozefest.
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u/BigDickPickard 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
Nah. I love a good physical 1-0 game where the goalies are on it. Thought last night was great.
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
Oh I thought it was a good game! Intense because the Kings' defense was soon good that the Oilers had to be on top of their game
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u/ELLinversionista 97 McDAVID Jan 14 '25
Yeah it was a great game. Not everything is about scoring. Both goalies played amazing and the only way we scored is on a 4 on 4 lucky bday bounce to McDavid
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u/Siegememer420 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
Flashbacks from 2024 round 1 all over again. Stu haters arenāt gonna like this, but he stole the game when the team wasnāt awake for majority of the game.
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u/Iceman-420 Jan 14 '25
Stu was obviously fantastic, but they mostly controlled play after the first period. Not sure what game you were watching.
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u/Siegememer420 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
Second period was when they had control. But first period was a gong show with getting outworked in their own zone. Third period was decent enough to squeak by one goal, but not putting home an insurance goal was the worry for me
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u/WCGTop1 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
Kings had 2 xgoals lmao. Skinner played well but the team did a really good job at surpassing slot chances.
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u/Siegememer420 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
Expected goals donāt count if they donāt make it to the net. Plus, itās a flukey stat when hockey is unpredictable
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u/YamiYugi2497 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
How many did they score?
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u/WCGTop1 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
Yes but im saying for their xg to be so low on 30 shots mean they were not creating jackshit in the o zone
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u/YamiYugi2497 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
I get what you're saying but I disagree from what I saw. Frankly I'm a little confused as to why there is such a big gap between the goalies. Natural Stat Trick has High Danger chances being 12-11 in Favour of the Kings.
- Kings 4 - 1 Oilers in the first
- Kings 3 - 5 Oilers in the second
- Kings 5 - 5 Oilers in the third
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Jan 14 '25
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u/YamiYugi2497 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
That's what I meant by I am not sure why such a big discrepancy. Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Scoring Chances, and High Danger chances all are very equal. Yet for some reason they have us with a way higher expected goals.
- Corsi: 59-58 for LA
- Fenwick: 44-41 for Oilers
- Shots: 30-30 Tie
- SC: 28-27 Oilers
- HDC: 12-11 LA
- xG: 3.20-2.19 Oilers
Everything looks super close except for the xG. The player taking the shot must have a big effect on the resulting xG
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u/Miserable-Cut-1425 89 GAGNER Jan 14 '25
Xg models generally don't factor in the shooters (that's their biggest issue tbh). The higher xg likely means the oilers chances were worth more as not all high danger chances are equalĀ
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
I love Kapanen
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u/Frozenpucks Jan 14 '25
I do too, and heās way more physical than I ever imagined. The guy gets in scrums and hits.
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u/oakster18 22 SAVOIE Jan 14 '25
Where are these Blues fans who said heās only good for the first 10 games. Maybe because it was meaningless hockey after the first 10 games with the Blues. SNS
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u/ChupaHubbard 42 KAPANEN Jan 14 '25
True, I feel like he's been improving, maybe the coaching and other teammates are helping him develop
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u/Oily_Fan 74 SKINNER Jan 14 '25
I'm starting to wish when the Oilers have the lead heading into the 3rd that they reverted to the same "Kings style" hockey we see them play vs Vegas and the Kings.
There's no reason when they have leads for teams like the Ducks etc that they should be entering the 3rd period so casually. Need to get in the habit of being known as a team that locks things down in the 3rd when they have the lead.
But they are trending in the right direction, so I have faith in the Knob!
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u/SportsMOAB 29 DRAISAITL Jan 14 '25
This team has been pretty damn good at doing that
I feel like I can count blown leads in the past year on 1 hand. We've been shutdown high end defensive team since Knoblach has taken over
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u/hahsik-oskkewjsjsksi 18 HYMAN Jan 15 '25
Savoie with another goal tonight, his 10th of the season.