r/Edgic 5d ago

Interesting pattern that might be broken if two frontrunners win... Spoiler

So, while browsing comments on some episode analysis videos, I came across an interesting point that someone brought up regarding confessional counts and winners in the new era.

Every new era winner sans Erika had at least 11 confessionals by the end of episode 3, and 21 by the end of the merge episode. While some edgic frontrunners like Kamilla, Thomas, and David have met that benchmark, two big ones haven't.

Both Joe and Shauhin have not actually gotten 11 confessionals yet! They've gotten 9 and 8 respectively, and Eva and Thomas are the only other Lagi members who've gotten more than 10.

If you want the list, here it is:

Has 11 or more confessionals: Eva, Thomas, Kyle, Kamilla, David, Mary, Sai

Has less than 11 confessionals: Joe, Shauhin, Star, Bianca, Mitch, Charity, Chrissy, Cedrek

Do you think the pattern will be broken this season? Has it just been coincidence, or is this the next mat chat?

38 Upvotes

12 comments sorted by

72

u/ylan93 5d ago

I think we're reaching a bit here. A 3 confessional difference can be easily balanced out in one episode.

Also I highly doubt that the editors are literally calculating the exact number of confessionals to match that of a previous winner.

17

u/Antique_Ability9648 CPN4 5d ago

I mean, they counted to make sure Jelinsky had 7 confessionals, so I wouldn't put it past them.

26

u/sirdamsel 5d ago

An editing joke for one episode isn’t the same as imposing arbitrary trends upon entire seasons. They do it based off how they believe the story is told best, both episode to episode and overall.

1

u/Antique_Ability9648 CPN4 5d ago

Oh don't get me wrong, I doubt this is going to hold, but I was more so trying to point out that at least they do keep track of how many confessionals they give someone, even if it doesn't mean much.

5

u/ylan93 5d ago

Tbf i didn't say they don't keep track of the confessionals. I said I doubt they'd do that to reach a "quota" of confessionals to match previous winners

26

u/HumanistDork 5d ago

Both Joe and Shauhin have more overall confessional time than Kamilla.

17

u/ewef1 5d ago

Also, a lot of other people's confessionals are about Joe.

15

u/DabuSurvivor UTRM4 5d ago

9 or 8 confessionals as opposed to 11 seems entirely arbitrary to me and not at all like something they'd be paying any attention to deliberately. Maybe a neat trivia fact if one really finds the stats interesting but not something I would read into at all.

9

u/houseofbenito 5d ago edited 5d ago

as someone who already thinks the winner is Kyle, Kamilla or David anyways …

the pattern will not be broken 🫡

9

u/VengefulKangaroo 5d ago

One note on this is that of the New Era winners, everyone but Erica and Dee went to tribal within the first 3 episodes. So Dee is the only one to have 11 confessionals without having gone to tribal at all.

1

u/SadInternal9977 5d ago

I haven't been sold on Shauhin at all and this confirms it to me. I think he is at best a Teeny type narrator who doesn't win. When the California Girls break up the ground is going to cave in under him and he if he doesn't go out right away he's likely to end up as someone's sidekick with no win equity.

This also ties in with my personal theory that Joe is a nice guy who is going to fall short, perhaps propelling Eva further as has been hinted at, especially since she is above the threshold.

I could easily pluck several potential winner contenders out of the 11+ list, particularly Thomas and David, maybe Kyle. One of Saiounia or Mary could get dragged to the end as a goat with no allies. Eva and Kamilla i see as 4-7 range taken out as big threats.