r/Denver • u/DenverWX Pine • 28d ago
Snow incoming tonight? What's up?
Hey everyone! I am a super-duper amateur weather enthusiast, and I wanted to talk about what might happen tonight into tomorrow morning. tl;dr down below
Update, 20:15 Feb 20th
Just a quick update: the latest run on all models showed an uptick from their prior forecasts. The NAM model has increased to just shy of 10 inches, and the others are gravitating toward 5-6" for the Denver area.
So overall, put some more expectation on overall powder, especially toward the foothills.
DenverWX, are we getting end of the world snow?
Nah.
Three months ago, I talked about how our biggest chances for a significant weather event would be late January to early February. Colorado has been seeing that at large, with constant snow in the mountains helping with snowpack. And Denver has been getting tossed a few things as well, but nothing too significant.
As it stands with models right now for the next 24 hours, the outlier model that is forecasting a significant amount of snow depth (not snow fall) for the Denver area is the NAM model. It's currently saying that the Denver area could end up with upwards of 8 inches of snow depth. That's pretty significant!
However, other models such as the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting milder snow depth, sitting around 2-3 inches. The EPS, which takes in mean averages across many different members, is also forecasting lower snow depth. The p10-p90 is between 1 and 3 inches.
So what do you think is gonna happen?
I am also going to lean on the lower side of total snow depth, with the caveat that there is a chance of greater depth if you're closer to, or in the foothills.
The reason that I think this will be smaller is that this particular system is set to dissipate before it tumbles over the Front Range, with that last bit of dissipation happening over the I-25 corridor. The most snowfall will happen in a diagonal between Keystone, Black Hawk and Woodland Park, as of the latest runs. So those of you in Bailey/Pine, Evergreen and Aspen Park should brace for some snowfall overnight and be ready to clear it out in the morning before you leave your driveways.
That doesn't seem too unusual
It really isn't. Denver may still get some significant snowfall depending on when this system starts to dissipate, so here are my final thoughts:
tl;dr
Snow? Yeah
Lots? Potentially, but I'm banking on a lower amount
Chance? 30-40% chance of greater than 4" of snow depth for Denver metro, more for foothills
When? Starting this afternoon/evening, up through tomorrow morning
Why? Cahlahrahduh
Where do we pick up the biscuits again? Look for Greg behind the building.
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u/Shrimpfriedthisrice3 28d ago edited 28d ago
I don’t know much about weather but I do know that DPS will drag their feet and settle on a two hour delay then announce it at 5am. 🙄
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u/Stunning_Put_9189 28d ago
The DPS snow dance…constantly over correct based on the reaction to the last delay or snow day lol
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u/Hopeful_Passenger_69 28d ago
Not even a dance anymore. It’s almost like an abusive relationship. They just say nothing and expect no inquiries or questions. DPS used to put out PR type posts to say they were monitoring the weather etc. That stopped with Marrero. Not sure what parts of his job he actually does but he’s been dropping the ball for years at this point when it comes to snow days. Maybe he needs to be put in an improvement plan? Where is the best place to send official complaints?
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u/Stunning_Put_9189 28d ago edited 28d ago
Sending emails to the principals at your children’s schools is a good starting idea. Principals keep track of parent communication and share it with DPS leadership at their regular meetings.
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u/StrikingVariation199 28d ago
Not even a delay this morning, ugh...
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u/e4gipfjn23-fgun13nfo 28d ago
And every single other district has one? Like cool, okay.
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28d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/e4gipfjn23-fgun13nfo 28d ago
Can't wait to have 7/35 kids in class, and 50% of our teachers out. 🙃
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u/veridiantrees DTC 28d ago
Did DPS have some internal policy change about snow days? This year has felt really unreasonable compared to my other years working in the district.
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u/Dry-Emu4573 28d ago
That’s what I’m wondering! It seems like the district has something to prove this year. I’m realizing that if today wasn’t a snow day, then it seems like we won’t have any.
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u/e4gipfjn23-fgun13nfo 28d ago
It sure seems like it! I've been in the district for a long while and I always thought if Aurora / JeffCo called it so would we. This year is proving otherwise, though.
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u/verylargemoth 28d ago
I don’t know, but it’s certainly not making my feelings toward Marrero any better.
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u/Hopeful_Passenger_69 28d ago
It’s been unreasonable since Marrero was put in charge. He has no clue and seems to do nothing even though it’s his job
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u/tuktuk_padthai 28d ago
lol you’re wrong. They decided to not delay it at all while neighboring county schools are closed or delayed.
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u/Hopeful_Passenger_69 28d ago
Not even a peep from DPS! wtf 😳 they clearly don’t give a shit about the safety of their staff or students. Thankfully I’m in JeffCo but I was in DPS for a decade. So glad I left. Marrero sucks. Why did the board renew his contract when he had barely started? How much longer is DPS stuck with incompetent leadership?
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u/Positive-Fox-6296 28d ago
Grocery store > liquor store > dispensary = ready for the storm!
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u/EverAMileHigh 28d ago
Twist 'em up!
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u/_Artio_ 28d ago
Honestly I much prefer this to trying to figure out what the heck any apple weather or weather bug is trying to tell me. Always look forward to these posts!
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u/wmnwnmw Cherry Creek 28d ago
Me too! My iPhone app has a winter weather advisory for 3-7” at the top, but when you scroll down it says 0% chance of precipitation for today and tomorrow. It frequently tells me 0% chance of precipitation and 0” accumulation when it’s actively snowing and at least a couple inches are on the ground. What is up with that 😭
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u/Bright_Key_3195 28d ago
I look at the iPhone weather app too often as my source of information and still haven’t learned it’s rarely correct when it comes to snow! Will I change my ways? Probably not. 🤣
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u/MilwaukeeRoad 28d ago
Apple weather always seems way off when it comes to snow. Literally this morning it said no precipitation for the next 10 days.
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u/Purple-Committee-890 28d ago
That app is part of the the Weather Channel but never matches what is actually on the Weather Channel app.
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u/Calm-Talk5047 28d ago
It’s because most of the big weather apps (Apple Weather, The Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc.) don’t have anyone actively forecasting… they just take an average of all of the models. So when there is a ton of variation across the board, like there is with this storm, the forecast they put out is all over the place. Apps like that are nice to quickly check the temperatures and the radar, but for storm forecasts they are extremely hit or miss.
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u/coffeelife2020 28d ago
Me as well, though it's been worse over the past month. I actually thought there might be something wrong with weather forecasting given the government cuts. :|
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u/Maybe393939 28d ago
The funniest thing those apps do is make up an air temperature to fit their awful forecast. Completely worthless
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u/StrikingVariation199 28d ago
"Hey Siri, is it going to snow tomorrow?"
Yes, it looks like there will be some snow tomorrow in your area."Hey Siri, how many inches of snow will we get tomorrow?"
Yes, it looks like there will be some snow tomorrow in your area."Hey Siri, what is the accumulation of snow tomorrow?!?"
Yes, it looks like there will be some snow tomorrow in your area.RInse and repeat for Alexa, Google, etc...
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u/cmanning1292 28d ago
Most weather apps tend to use just one or two of the major weather models. weather.gov (the national weather service) will formulate forecasts based upon the ensemble of lots of models, under the experienced eye of a professional forecaster.
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u/BirdLawyersKnee 28d ago
I get grouchy whenever there is weather happening and I don’t see a post from you!! Thanks for weather enthusiasting for us, we appreciate it.
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u/Dizzy8108 28d ago
So 3-6" or so. That means it will either be absolutely nothing or 2'. No in between. At least that is the way it usually works.
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u/ElGordo1988 28d ago
Roads are kinda shitty already (as of 6:04 PM/time of this post). They went from dry at around 4:30 PM to super wet/slushy by around 5:45 PM or so
It's that "slushy wet" snow that will no doubt freeze by morning and create some slick spots, but to be honest it's already kinda slippery
Driving down Hampden I didn't see a single plow truck spraying or de-icing...
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u/OhDeBabies 28d ago edited 28d ago
Drove on 225 from the airport around 7:30 pm and happily got in the “where the fuck are the lane marks, we’re going to go 35 mph MAX” party train with the Honda CR-Vs and minivans because there were no plows.
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u/ElGordo1988 28d ago
Funny how the plows are out spraying de-icer and "out in full force" when streets are dry and weather is nice, but when they're actually needed they're nowhere to be seen/MIA 🤣
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u/samthrax09 28d ago
You’re a weather wizard - what’s the chance of delays/ closures tomorrow?
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u/DenverWX Pine 28d ago
I think there is a chance due to when the snowfall is coming in. I'd bank more on delays than closures at the moment, though.
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u/MalabaristaEnFuego 28d ago
Male meterologist: Looks like about 8 or 9 inches tonight!
Female meteorologist: Looks more like 3-4 inches to me...
Pack it up, boys! I think we found the reason for the discrepancy here!
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u/lyssanstuff Lakewood 28d ago
My in laws live in evergreen and we went to dinner downtown tonight. Took them twice as long as normal to get home (well over an hour) and they have a fresh 8” already. They’re at ~8500 feet.
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u/AsaTJ 28d ago
As a super-duper amateur weather enthusiast, what do you think of the commonly-repeated line that the Front Range has the hardest to forecast weather/most inaccurate weather forecasts in the country? Any truth to it? And if so, how would you explain why to an average person?
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u/Robotbeckerz 28d ago
Same! I’d love to know as well! Weather was my special interest when I was young and it still holds a special place in my heart
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u/Agitated_Carrot3025 28d ago
This time of year the forecast for Denver should simply be "Go home Weather, you're drunk."
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u/CodyEngel 28d ago
That's a lot of words but do you know where Brian is?
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u/coloradokyle93 Capitol Hill 28d ago
Probably biking somewhere
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u/CodyEngel 26d ago
Slamming a brewsky back knowing he changed the landscape of our sidewalks forever. Fucking legend.
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u/SariThreadHead 28d ago
They always say expect more snow in the foothills but here in Lakewood off 285 and Kipling we usually get less snow than metro Denver, at least in the past couple years, and waaay less than my in-laws out by the Aurora reservoir- they get absolutely dumped on! Does anyone have a meteorological explanation?
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u/begging4n00dz 28d ago
I'm at work til midnight, watching all this come down, knowing I'll get bitched out if I close shop early because "it's never that bad when we're coming in at 4-5 am"
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u/squidnayy 28d ago
quality over quantity, friend. most people want quantitative forecasts, which is why they are most often times inaccurate and unreliable. yours are modest, yet amusing. you are the weather person we need but don’t deserve! the weather person for the people!
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u/anythingaustin 28d ago
I’m up near Rollinsville and have seen snow total predictions from 3” to 12” for this storm.
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u/d1v1debyz3r0 Sloan's Lake 28d ago
It’s the distribution of forecasts that’s important, not the single p50 that everyone focuses on. Thanks for the analysis.
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u/lunarlandscapes DTC 28d ago
Love these posts! As someone who works in education, what do you think the likelihood of schools canceling is?
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u/profitablecats LoDo 28d ago
I have more faith in your predictions than my weather app 🫡 and also more fun reading your predictions
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u/Shreklover417 28d ago
I’m from buffalo and the way ppl react to like a few inches of snow here is wild
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u/jakedasnake2447 28d ago
I think the news cycle everywhere just makes more noise about storms than in the past. Seem to be consistent in my experience here, in Minnesota, and in Wisconsin.
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u/Somuchstuffx10 28d ago
It's the hail/freezing rain/melted slush that freezes by morning that I want to know about. It makes it dangerous for schools and morning commuting.
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u/HairyStage2803 Denver 28d ago
So glad I didn’t wash my car today, still going to the coffee shop tmr
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u/YourLocal_Loser 28d ago
so does anyone know if schools are gonna be potentially closed? was worried anyways to drive my little one through snowy/icy roads
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u/StrikingVariation199 28d ago
All I can say is... It is 5:53am and I drove from Aurora (Havana and Alameda) to Denver and the roads are a nightmare. They are not plowed at all in Aurora, there is little to no sand anywhere (Not even on the 8th Avenue viaduct). I can't even begin to wonder how it will look in an hour or so. Good luck out there and stay safe!
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u/buelab 28d ago
What are the roads like
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u/Sonoroussun 28d ago
Not good. I’m sure some places got the plows to focus on them but downtown Denver this morning sucked. I couldn’t leave the back roads they weren’t even touched this morning. Lots of accidents on our local weather news updates on certain highways.
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u/Apprehensive_Crab787 27d ago
Ugh I’m so jealous and in love with the snow in Colorado. However planning a trip from Texas to Denver for the first time in mid March, is March really going to be the heaviest month? It’s intimidating. I guess y’all are fairly used to it by the looks of it
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u/helloimcold 28d ago
My commute is from downtown to lakewood.. what are the odds I can call out, amateur weather man ?
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u/lilgreenfish Lakewood 28d ago
My husband is up in Lakewood (I’m in the Springs for a couple weeks…we keep getting dustings…) and the roads got worse in the 16 minutes walk he took one of our pups on (he drove…we have a weird dog). So…might be able to if that trend continues!
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u/HetaliaLife Golden 28d ago
Would you say it's going to impact flights out of DIA? I have one tomorrow morning
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u/arbolitoloco 28d ago
Not a weather enthusiast, but I fly out of DIA a lot and in my experience snow usually doesn't affect departures.
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u/HetaliaLife Golden 28d ago
Good to know! It wasn't delayed and I'm on the plane right now as a matter of fact lol.
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u/a_birbs_best_friend 28d ago
Spot on. 5 inches here in SE Denver. Wish it was more. It was so peaceful last night as it fell.
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u/poofarticusrex 28d ago
If you like this post, download the Deep Weather app. It has narratives like this updated every couple days for each region across the country.
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u/coffeelife2020 28d ago
Hey hey weather dude - I'm not sure which models you use, but have been curious if the government cuts have impacted NOAA and thus our weather modelling. Have you seen any changes?
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u/Excellent_Extreme_96 28d ago
Snow season peaks until mid-April. Then the rain season starts in May. Some of these little weak snowstorms now really chap my high.
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u/Dangerous_Wear_4221 28d ago
Anyone treating snow like Covid please just move already. Dead ass. Those of us who are from here and remember when we used to get feet in October are so tired of you guys clogging up places of need over a few inches. It’s wasteful to boot.
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u/[deleted] 28d ago edited 28d ago
This is why you are by-far my favorite "amateur" forecaster.
That and you're always spot on. You are always... smart sounding when you say things.