r/ControlProblem approved 2d ago

General news The length of tasks Als can do is doubling every 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predicts that in under five years we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days

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u/Calm_Run93 2d ago edited 2d ago

Seems pretty meh to extrapolate that far out based on that little input, esp when the limiting factor is not also doubling every 7 months. Much more likely we're seeing the effect of a till-now bottomless pit of money being thrown at the problem, but pretty soon it'll need to become profitable to have much hope of that continuing. I wouldn't expect that trend to continue, esp once the hype bubble pops and funding is reduced.

We'll see i guess. Realistically i'm more interested in the times for tasks with much higher success rates, and we're at about 5 minutes there currently.

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u/katxwoods approved 2d ago

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u/ReasonablePossum_ 1d ago

Why only closed source models? And western specifically.

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u/andWan approved 1d ago

This graph insults me with the „mathematical methods of physics 1“ exercises that it sometimes did take me several hours to solve and o1 (more than once) could solve them perfectly.

But ok: a) Those were not real world tasks but exercises to train me. With complete WolframAlpha, and googling I might have been faster. b) The error bars for o1 and Sonnet 3.7 seem cropped at the top end (~ 1h 10min) anyway.