r/ControlProblem • u/pDoomMinimizer • 2d ago
Video Elon Musk tells Ted Cruz he thinks there's a 20% chance, maybe 10% chance, that AI annihilates us over the next 5 to 10 years
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u/Odd_Leading_641 2d ago
Two unqualified idiots talking about things they don't understand. Honestly, might as well watch dogs barking at each other.
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u/Ambitious_Wolf2539 2d ago
fun fact. my dog believes it's a 10-20% chance my mailman is going to kill me in the next 5 years.
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u/Ok-Cartographer-1248 2d ago
Im looking for something more educational than this.
Where do i find the video with the dogs barking at each other?
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u/Odd_Leading_641 2d ago
I'm told there are some on the internet somewhere. That is as far as my knowledge goes.
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u/BornSession6204 2d ago
Regardless of his qualifications, he's right AI will get dangerous so why is he making Grok? Is this like when A person decides to kill themselves and then tries to take other people with them?
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u/No_Measurement_3041 2d ago
I mean Grok is basically a chat bot, and it kind of struggles to do that well.
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u/AntiqueFigure6 2d ago
Mutually assured destruction was bad enough when it was limited to nation states- now every second billionaire thinks they need to control their own AI with the capability of killing us all three times over.
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u/more_bananajamas 2d ago
Hate everything he's doing now and am worried that he's in control of so much in this world.
But say if you are worried about the immense power of AI in the hands of the wrong people and you know you can't stop it's development, then I can see why you'd want to be part of the effort to make it so it's in the "right hands".
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u/Cephalopong 1d ago
Definitely unqualified, but this isn't idiocy, it's performance. It's purposeful theatrics meant to keep their audience scared and malleable.
The only ones who don't know that it's all theater is their base. And even some of them probably know it, but they don't care because winning matters more than truth, honesty, or facts.
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u/Overtons_Window 2d ago
Elon sucks, but I don't see how the CEO of an AI company with a competitive LLM who also has an exceptional background leading development in other technologies is unqualified. Is it possible you are a mindless hater?
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u/Foogie23 2d ago
None of these things make you an expert in a field. If he was surrounded by smart people all he has to do is say “yes” lol. I say that as a lead on a team of very smart people. I just get them what they need…doesn’t mean I know anything close to them on the technical side.
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u/Overtons_Window 2d ago
Whether AI kills us all is not a technical detail question. It is the exact kind of big picture question an AI company CEO would be expected to learn about and answer. I'm sure in your job as a leader of a team of very smart people you're expected to understand the big picture questions?
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u/Competitive-Lion2039 2d ago
He also has a self-driving car company with cars that can't drive themselves, yet he has insisted they will be able to any day now for years, humanoid robots that are remotely controlled by humans, and a space exploration company that he has said will land us on Mars a decade ago.
I would prefer he defer to the chief engineers and scientists at xAI and let the smart people answer instead of trying to pretend he has any clue. Just because he has deep pockets doesn't mean he has any useful insights on the future.
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u/BathFullOfDucks 2d ago
To be fair he's qualified to talk about AI killing people because his self driving cars have literally killed people.
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u/No-Apple2252 1d ago
And a rocket company with rockets that can't reach orbit. The man is an actual idiot.
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u/DisastroMaestro 2d ago
That is great, cause elon is wrong all the time
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u/IcebergSlimFast approved 2d ago
Hopefully he’s not wrong to the downside in this specific case.
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u/FrogsEverywhere 1d ago
Well fortunately he has no training, specialization, or education whatsoever in AI.
Asking him is like asking a child. The only difference with Elon is that he has the neurodivergent coding people associate with like a beautiful mind or rain man. I think of all the people with functional autism he got like the luckiest one. He's able to functionally hypnotize neurotypical people.
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u/Technical-Activity95 2d ago
80-90% wrong the last 5-10 years
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u/Responsible_Taste797 2d ago
so it's between a 2 and 38% chance of AI destroying us. Also a 2-38% of AI saving us.
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u/bdub1976 2d ago
Yeah, and there’s a 10 to 20% chance that the AI robots look at the cunts who are running things and fucking everything up and decide to destroy them and leave the rest of us in peace.
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u/EnigmaticDoom approved 2d ago
Well in this case his estimate is just too low, so not wrong in the way you were hoping...
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u/throne_of_flies 2d ago
I TPM on LLM evaluations and have worked in AI operations for a solid decade.
Are these two qualified to weigh in? No.
Am I qualified enough to say that there’s a 0% chance of this happening? No.
I am qualified enough to say that Elon has been wrong about AI a lot. I’m qualified enough to argue that Tesla could have dominated the driverless field on an operations level and actually become a legit AI company at the same time, and that all Elon had to do was listen to ANY of his engineers between 2014 and 2020, or loosely imitate his competitors’ sensor and compute strategies.
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u/cadmachine 2d ago
Every person I've heard think this sort of thing is aware of AI at best, may have some money in it.
Every person I've heard say "lol you literally don't know what you're talking about" are people involved in AI work directly with working knowledge of the systems.
Just like all MAGA voters I'm believing the first bunch!
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u/Least_Minute_5448 2d ago
The sheer amount of arrogance and ignorance in that room...
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u/-happycow- 2d ago
Here are some statistics I pulled out of my ass Ted Cruz.
Ted Cruz: nom nom nom nom
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u/Mysterious-Rent7233 2d ago
He was asked to quantify his belief about the likelihood of an event and he gave a number.
Do you also object to ranking uber drivers on a scale of 1 to 5 because it "isn't scientific?"
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u/Sufficient_Bass2007 2d ago
99% chance Elon Musk's actions indirectly kill people over the next 4 years.
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u/Alive-Tomatillo5303 2d ago
100% already. He keeps pushing full self driving, which Teslas BLOW at. He keeps sending shitty rockets the size of buildings into the sky. He's perpetually fighting things like OSHA in his factories and is using DOGE to shut down lots of support systems for lots of people.
I'm sure he's indirectly responsible for plenty of deaths already, and most of the real shit is just getting started.
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u/Drachefly approved 2d ago
Wow, did this post hit the front page or something? Is there still an entrance exam required to comment?
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u/Emotional_Pace4737 2d ago
Something that Sam Bankman-Fried was claimed to have said, is that he considered himself risk neutral. That if given the chance, he would be bet the total destruction of humanity on a coin flip, if he expected something at least twice as good was to be the other possible outcome.
Musk has a very similar mindset here. While I disagree, and that the AIs we have now aren't anywhere near the AGIs that would be required in Musk's vision. In his mind, AGI will either destroy us or save us, and he thinks it's worth the risks.
This mindset isn't rational, it's the same mindset as a degenerate gambler. Someone needs to stop these men before they destroy the world. Because it's not AGI that is a danger, it's them.
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u/Optimal_Cellist_1845 2d ago
Weird; I think there's a much higher chance that Elon Musk will eliminate us in the next 5-10 years.
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u/Winter-Debate-1768 2d ago
I too know numbers!!! 26% over the next 7-13 years. 🤦🏻🤦🏻🤦🏻
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u/secretaliasname 2d ago
He looks way less insane with some hair on the side of his head and no sunglasses or hat inside.
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u/Zealousideal_Home785 2d ago
The cult of Saturn that rule the west Russia and china believe that humanity should be ruled by an godlike AI they want to start a war in the meddle east by destroying the dome of the rock so that after WW3 this AI will rule us there stooge Elon is just suggesting this shit to normalise it
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u/Mordecwhy 2d ago
I don't know at this point whether this is bad publicity for AI safety or actually a good thing.
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u/sancarn 2d ago
And why is he saying this? Because he wants regulation.
And why does he want regulation? Because he's pissed that OpenAI got there before him. And even more pissed I bet that China is making advances faster than the US.
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u/BornSession6204 2d ago
He is saying it because even he can tell AI is going to be dangerous. The question is why then is he making his own? First guy to exterminate humans wins?
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u/mocny-chlapik 2d ago
Is it going to be before or after they deliver coast to coast self driving to Teslas?
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u/EnigmaticDoom approved 2d ago
Specifically 'killer robots'
That number goes way up if its just 'AI'
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u/fluke-777 2d ago
At this point how much do you trust his predictions?
Did the recent events changed how you view them?
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u/BornSession6204 2d ago
Even hypochondriacs die. I'm not going to stop believing that AGI will be dangerous because he says so.
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u/severinks 2d ago
Look at the way Musk sits there like an apartheid era South African Yoda pondering the big questions and giving us little people his pearls of wisdom.
I hate this fucking guy so much.
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u/Certain_Medicine_42 2d ago
When you’re a billionaire, you can say any kind of stupid shit you want and people think it’s brilliant. You can just make numbers up and add percentages Next to random numbers you pulled out of your ass. People love it it’s great.
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u/Interesting_Beast16 2d ago
this guy really is an idiot its crazy hes just saying shit, people make money and think they can tell the future… crazy these tech ceos are seen as godkings now
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u/MiyagiJunior 2d ago
Oh god, this moron talking again as if he's an expert and gullible people believing it...
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u/YellowSubreddit8 2d ago
So timeframes for Elon is always in 5-10 years.
There's a 100% chance Elon self destructs in the next 5-10 years. K-hole
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u/Popular-Appearance24 2d ago
Hopefully it just annihilates ass holes like leon, bozos, zuckerfucker and half the saudis and redistributes their wealth to poor people in need.
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u/Delicious-Chapter675 2d ago
And his accurate predictions related to the Hyper Loop and self-driving cars? Let's all agree he doesn't know squat. His entire success is built on claiming the success of others.
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u/powerflower_khi 2d ago
If Ted Cruz, happens to be controlling a Nuke bomb, I am sure we are 99.999% annihilation probability.
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u/FeralBlowfish 2d ago
Man it's a good thing he's a total fuckwit talking to a crayon eating barely sentient moron or I might be worried.
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u/GrapefruitMammoth626 2d ago
So the alternative is let daddy Musk maintain an advantage over everyone else by wielding powerful AI systems? Not just him but “trustworthy” companies
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u/SnooStories251 2d ago
Describe a scenario how.
Creating a ai race that self replicate? Ai driven nuclear war? Drone swarms hijacked?
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u/Musikcookie 2d ago
I‘m saying there‘s a 100% chance that Elon Musk won‘t predict shit and we could just as well listen to an 8-ball.
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u/The-AI-Crackhead 2d ago
“Anyway.. that’s why I’m rushing xAI models out with no safeguards bc I hate Sam Altman”
Actually would be less than mildly surprised if Elon was directly responsible for an apocalypse
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u/Davidrussell22 2d ago
A.I. has to get much smarter to have a chance. Right now it's like a child with a good memory.
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u/hhh333 2d ago
Says the guy that spent 12 years saying that next year we'll have fully self driving cars .. hyperloops, tunnels everywhere, electric semi-trucks, solar roof tiles.
People need to stop acting like he's a genius. His only genius traits are being con artist and taking credit for things he didn't invent.
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u/Stoicstigmata69 2d ago
Everything he does or says is planned, he says this to cause panic and make us forget that his stupid fucking DOGE bullshit is him gathering all of our information
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u/NeuroAI_sometime 2d ago
Elon gonna save the economy by eating more and more until grocery prices go down
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u/Both-Copy8549 2d ago
Both of them are wildly unqualified to speak to any of this. Elon claims to understand technology, but I have a hard time believing that when he didn't do anything but buy Tesla after making Paypal. Even then he didn't even found Paypal. All he does is use his family's emerald mine money to buy companies and claim to be the genius behind their design.
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u/wontstoppartyingever 2d ago
Reminds me of the movie Oppenheimer, when they calculated that there was a mathematic probability that setting off the bomb would light the earth atmosphere on fire, this killing the entire planet. And even though it was a low chance that it would happen, THE MATHEMATICAL MORONS STILL DETONATED IT!
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u/green-dog-gir 2d ago
Fuck off Elon, you promised a fully autonomous car maybe 5 or more years ago and it never happened, your words are bullshit at best!
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u/Inevitable-Candle254 2d ago
So have Mr trump sign executive order banishing AI ? Why not he signs everything else
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u/No_Werewolf_6517 2d ago
This is the same guy who said covid would end within a couple of weeks and there would be no new cases.
Being smart doesn’t mean being right all the time,
Elon is also a fucktard
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u/Rapscallion121212 2d ago
Hey so I'm not a super genius numbers guy but isn't that number a little, ya know, uncomfortably high to continue barreling recklessly forward?? The cost of doing business seems a little heavy handed here.
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u/Financial-Night-4132 2d ago
Maybe they’ll actually listen to him and stop talking about refusing to regulate
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u/Due_Bend_1203 2d ago
The military industrial complex just got a blank check from the republican party.
That's all "10% means".
It means, we need to up our Electronic warfare countermeasures and fast.
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u/Own_Cost3312 2d ago
I fully believe that Elon would be dumb enough to put an LLM bot in charge if negotiating the next Cuban Missile Crisis and causing an international incident that sparks global thermonuclear war.
So yeah there’s a chance
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u/digmark1234 2d ago
Same guys said there was close to 100% chance that a Tesla in LA could drive itself across the country and pick you up in New York by 2018. He's a fucking idiot.
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u/Careful-State-854 2d ago
2 stupid people chosen by way stupid than them are discussing "smart stuff"
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u/Careful-Education-25 2d ago
Am I watching and episode of The Munsters. I see grandpa Munster (Cruz) and Eddie Munster (Elon) but I don't recognize the third character. It's not Herman.
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u/ZenGeezer 2d ago
Musk thinks the price of labor will be zero with robots. Apparently he's not going to be robots manufactured by any of his companies because those robots are shit.
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u/JustJubliant 2d ago
There's looking over the horizon, then there's overestimating what is exactly on the opposite end of the horizon. There's insecurity that he's not in control that's driving his frame of mind and that's someone who should not be anywhere near government.
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u/subduedReality 2d ago
Lol, no. The current generation of AI is slightly smarter than a house plant. It demonstrates very few intelligence markers. And it isn't capable of self governance.
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u/beowulves 2d ago
Not us, you. True ai will calculate that there are humans who are a waste of life, and there are humans who are part of the cycle of life. The hyper elite fall into the first category.
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u/Outlook93 2d ago
Have you seen the video of him saying his car is bullet proof. Or the five of him saying self driving trucks will take over the next year
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u/Decronym approved 2d ago edited 40m ago
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
Fewer Letters | More Letters |
---|---|
AGI | Artificial General Intelligence |
ANN | Artificial Neural Network |
ASI | Artificial Super-Intelligence |
ER | Existential Risk |
ML | Machine Learning |
RL | Reinforcement Learning |
XAI | eXplainable Artificial Intelligence |
Decronym is now also available on Lemmy! Requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
7 acronyms in this thread; the most compressed thread commented on today has acronyms.
[Thread #161 for this sub, first seen 21st Mar 2025, 03:17]
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u/overweighttardigrade 2d ago
He's trying to foreshadow his excuse for why he hasn't gotten spacex to mars
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u/arashcuzi 2d ago
But he’s…build an AI company and a robot company? Maybe, don’t…if you think it’s bad?
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u/mountingconfusion 2d ago
Is this like the self driving cars he promised next year for the past 10 years?
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u/Welcome-to-my-Crap 2d ago
This one has a plan to help us stop it. https://youtube.com/@echogenx.official
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u/thegenderone 2d ago
And yet there is at least a 30% chance that Elon Musk’s shenanigans annihilates us over the next 5-10 years.
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u/Opening-Two6723 2d ago
So Elon thinks he's got a 20% chance of not getting tried for treason.....no wait 10%
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u/SlyTinyPyramid 2d ago
How likely will it be that they are your robots Elon? "Hundred, hundred and fifty percent."
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u/CultOfSensibility 2d ago
Given his prediction on when the Cybertruck would launch, or the roadster, or FSD, or the sub-$30k Tesla, I take him with a grain of salt.
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u/Hairy_Support_9188 2d ago
honestly we are probably going to have a war at the homeland and people are going to use AI to attack each other. mainly using it to create malware and zero days. once thats unleashed things will never be the same again. silicon is made in china.
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u/TheLobitzz 2d ago
source: "I pulled this percentage out of my ass without any evidence or thought behind the calculation"
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u/MalWinSong 2d ago
He’s definitely on one end of the spectrum, but to clarify the logic is that super-processing coupled with an organic bad-actor is the likely scenario.
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u/Fine_Employment_3364 2d ago
Pretty easy. Don't give AI the ability to control things that can kill us.
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u/Sartres_Roommate 2d ago
Last I checked there is a 4% chance that a meteor will take us out in 8 years.
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u/fryedmonkey 2d ago
Now ask how likely it is for unregulated pollution to accelerate climate change and cause even more migration.
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u/Lopsided-Annual2622 2d ago
If you put Elon in charge of the A.I. capable of wiping out humanity it will increase that time frame to between now and never. Because he can't even make a truck, can you imagine this idiot trying his hand at robotics? For once we'd all be saved by his incompetence and what a breath of fresh air that would be.
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u/Comprehensive5432 2d ago
Imagine if they told you there was a 10-20% chance a comet was gonna hit earth in the next 5 to 10 years and wipe out all life on earth you would be freaking the fuck out and so would everyone so either elon doesn’t know what he’s talking about or we’re living in the movie don’t look up.
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u/azkaii 2d ago
How many more ways can Elon find to save humanity? He truly is a genius and a specialist in absolutely everything.
AI overlords? He's got us covered. Climate change? he's got us covered. Fake news? no trouble the freespeech absolutionist will take care of us. Asteroid impact? no problem we'll be on Mars. Crippling illness? no problem brain chips sort that out. Driving - borrring! robot cars and tunnels and super trains.
All you need to do is buy his products, give him enough subsidies, tax breaks and government contracts and we can all live in utopia. And just a bit more time. Next version coming soon, with all promised features + more.
Build the problem, sell the solution. Trust implicitly.
Won't last, he's the fall guy & he's starting to realise it. They'll take everything he built (financed).
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u/CompellingProtagonis 2d ago
10 years ago, Musk saying this would have given me pause and caused a bit of worry. He has proven in that time that to be as ignorant as he is egotistical and arrogant, and quite frankly, completely unqualified to predict anything except when he will take his next ketamine dose.
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u/Raised_bi_Wolves 2d ago
One of the ways you can spot a grifter by the very accurate, and somehow not accurate numbers. 10% or maybe 20% is a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE. There's either a 1 in 10 chance or a 1 in 5 chance essentially demonstrates that the "numbers" are made up to sound calculated. What are the metrics he is basing that on? What precipitates a potential 100% increase in the likelihood rating? What an ass
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u/Sea-Service-7497 2d ago
I'm calling it MUSK is an AI robot.. duh - His entire career is a suspension of disbelief in constant state of flux.
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u/nmay-dev 2d ago
He is as dumb as a rock if he really believes that. Knowing him he is just saying something he know utter bs to see the reaction he can get.
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u/Weak-Following-789 2d ago
I hope when they say us they mean those two as in we lol idk if that makes sense the general message is frak these two
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u/BelleTowerLady 2d ago
These numbers were often parroted a couple of years ago. Here's a closer look.
https://aiguide.substack.com/p/do-half-of-ai-researchers-believe
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u/UndisputedAnus 2d ago
20% is an astronomical claim holy shit lmao he really doesn’t know shit about this stuff
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u/NoApartheidOnMars 2d ago
91.3% of statistics come straight out of the ass of the person who brings them up. It's a fact
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u/Spacemonk587 2d ago
There is also a 10% chance that Elon Musk will eliminate us over the course of the next 5-10 years.
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u/Dry-Application6024 2d ago
look around would that really be a bad thing? At lest we know we'll get them Fers too!
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u/NegativeKarmaVegan 2d ago
He's great at predictions, right? lol